This post is goings tto look at how the transfer patterns changed between FF and FG where there was at least one candidate from each of the parties.

The reason I’m having a look at this is because the RTE exit poll included a finding that 30% of Fianna Fàil voters had given their second preference to Fine Gael (versus 39% for another Fianna Fail candidate)l while 32% of Fine Gael candidates would do similar (versus 37% for Fine Gael) which on the face of it are eyebrow-raising figures.

However it has to be remembered that in a decent number of constituencies either Fianna Fàil or Fine Gael (and sometimes both) only ran one candidate. By my count Fianna Fáil only ran one candidate in 13 constituencies (7 of which were in Dublin) while Fine Gael did similarly in 15 constituencies (only 4 of which were in Dublin). Clearly, Fianna Fáil were more conservative with their candidate strategy in Dublin, while Fine Gael were more conservative beyond the Pale.

The Poll question doesn’t seem to discriminate between those who vote Number 1 for Party X and then eschew the wiles of the second X Candidate to deliver their second preference to party Y, and those who are Party X partisans but there no second X candidate in their constituency to transfer to.

The table below shows Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael where there is at least one candidate from each party continuing in the race. There were were 23 Fine Gael transfers matching this criterion and 22 Fianna Fáil ones.

PARTY	FF	FG	OTH	NT
FF	49.6%	21.8%	21.8%	6.9%
FG	25.2%	54.2%	14.1%	6.2%

The internal Fine Gael transfer rate was 5 points higher than their Fianna Fáil counterparts bur they were also more likely to transfer to their Fianna Fáil counterparts than vice versa. Fine Gael – in these circumstances – seemed less inclined to transfer to other parties and Independents.

There was also an interesting difference between Fine Gael transfer rates in Dublin and the rest of Ireland.

PARTY	FF	FG	OTH	NT
Dublin	15.8%	68.9%	11.1%	4.2%
Elsewhere	27.9%	50.0%	15.4%	6.7%

In Dublin, more than two-thirds of Fine Gael transfers stayed within the party in the four areas that at least one other Fine Gael candidate was available. The number of votes Fine Gael received in these transfers was over four times that which Fianna Fáil received.

By contrast – outside Dublin – only half the Fine Gael transfers returned to the party and nearly thirty per cent went to Fianna Fáil. A slightly larger percentage also went to other parties and Independents. It was a similar situation in 2020.

The reason I didn’t do a similar analysis for Fianna Fáil in 2024 was because they only had one small transfer in Dublin (Fingal East) which can’t be seen as representative. A similar situation pertained in 2020.

However in 2020, there were three internal Fianna Fáil internal transfers in Dublin – 57.5% went back to the party and 11.5% to Fine Gael which wasn’t much different from the figures outside Dublin (54.1% to 13.3%).

To be quite honest – there is not much you can deduce from that.

Anyway – how have the transfer patterns shifted over the three elections? First we will have a look at the Fianna Fáil transfers.

YEAR	FF	FG	OTH	NT
2016	53.9%	10.1%	23.4%	12.7%
2020	54.6%	13.0%	23.0%	9.4%
2024	49.6%	21.8%	21.8%	6.9%

Confidence and Supply from 2016 to 2020 provoked a modest increase in the FF-FG transfer rate, but the rise was much steeper in 2024 with falls in both the internal Fianna Fáil transfer rate and the percentage of Non-Tansferable votes..

YEAR	FF	FG	OTH	NT
2016	14.1%	56.8%	20.5%	8.5%
2020	19.4%	56.4%	16.4%	7.5%
2024	25.2%	54.2%	14.4%	6.1%

Fine Gael see a smoother rise in transfers to Fianna Fáil between 2016 and 2024, with a corresponding drop in transfers to other parties and the rate of non-transferable votes.

Now back to the original question – do the (apparent ) Transfer rates in the Exit Poll for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael match up with the rates calculated above? Table Below.

TYPE	FF-FF	FF-FG	FG-FG	FG-FF
Exit Poll	39%	30%	37%	32%
GE24	49.6%	21.8%	54.2%	25.2%

A quick look at the figures above suggest definitely not. However if – for the inter-party transfers – we only include those constituencies where the transferring party has a candidate eligible to receive votes.

In Fianna Fláil’s case for instance, this meant that just over 82% of their total poll was potentially transferable to a party colleague.

(For Fine Gael the corresponding figure was just over 76%)

Extrapolating further, this means that the true internal transfer figure found for Fianna Fáil in the poll should not be thought off as 39/100 but rather 39/82.3 (and for Fine Gael, 37/76.1).

This leads to recalibrated internal transfer rates for both parties of just under 50% – but now I have to account for transfers to the other party (ie FF-FG) and then all transfers or non-transferable votes.

In the opinion poll those blocks for FF transfers are 30% and 31% respectively, equalling 61%. On the recalibration above, there is 52½% available due to the 47½% internal transfer rate for FF. Therefore the respective transfers should be accordingly proportionally reduced.

If we do that for both the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael figures, the rejigged Table 4 looks like these.

TYPE	FF-FF	FF-FG	FG-FG	FG-FF
Exit Poll	47%	26%	49%	26%
GE24	49.6%	21.8%	54.2%	25.2%

Now – I admit this isn’t exactly science, but it’s not an unreasonable work around (I think so anyway)

The figures don’t exactly match up – but they are close enough.

What is clear from the above analysis is that the (apparent) suggestion in the raw figures presented at 10pm on polling day that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voters were essentially transferring FFGesquely between the two parties is not true.

What is also true however is that there has been a steady growth in the transfer rate between the two parties in the ast decade with nearly a quarter of each party’s voters transferring to the other party when both choices were available.

A Bit More Later (Possibly)