Category Archives: Wexford

Uncategorized, Wexford, Wicklow

What the Electoral Commission might do – South-East Leinster

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In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.

Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.

However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.

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Constituency Revision, Wexford

Preliminary Census Returns – Wexford

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Wexford Population

The preliminary census returns for Wexford indicate a population of 163,527 souls. If the national totals of Dail seats were to increase to 171 (the minimum required according to the overall population figures) Wexford as a 5 seat constituency would deviate by over 9% from the national average ratio of population, meaning that it would require a transfer of over ten thousand population into another constituency.

TABLE 1 – WEXFORD POPULATION RATIO

Dail Size Number of seats Deviation
171 5.46 +9.2%
176 5,62 -6.3%
181 5.78 -3.7%

However, if the Boundary Commission were to suggest say 176 seats it would be more likely that population would be transferred into Wexford to create two three-seaters. It the Commission were to insist upon 181 seats nationally the level of deviation from the national average for six seats would be under 4%  which would mean that  Boundary changes would not be necessary

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Constituency Revision, Wexford

Preliminary Census Returns – Wicklow

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Wicklow Population

The preliminary census returns for Wicklow indicate a population of 155,485 souls. If the national totals of Dail seats were to increase to 171 (the minimum required according to the overall population figures) Wicklow as a 5 seat constituency would deviate by just under 4% from the national average ratio of population : seat.

TABLE 1 – WICKLOW POPULATION RATIO

Dail Size Number of seats Deviation
171 5.19 +3.8%
176 5.34 +6.8%
181 5.49 +9.8%

However, if the Boundary Commission were to suggest say 176 seats or 181 seats nationally the level of deviation from the national would be in the order of 7% and 10% respectively, which would require Boundary changes to be made involving at least one other county.

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