The current Poll Average in the US Presidential Election shows Biden nearly 8% ahead of Trump – this is an increase of 1% over a week. An election held on these figures would suggest that Biden would take 352 votes and Trump 186 – this represents North Carolina’s 15 Electoral College votes moving into Biden’s camp.
The following states and districts which Trump won last time would flip to Biden : Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Arizona and Nebraska 2nd.
A big caveat is that Trump remains competitive in most of the states listed above (ie he’s less than 5% behind Biden) so theoretically he could win the Electoral Vote despite losing the Popular Vote by 2 or 3%.
| STATE | ECVs | 2016 VOTE | 1st September | SWING |
| OVERALL | — | CLINTON +2% | BIDEN +7.5% | BIDEN +3% |
| Iowa | 6 | TRUMP +9½% | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +4% |
| Texas | 38 | TRUMP +9% | TRUMP +½% | BIDEN +4½% |
| Ohio | 18 | TRUMP +8% | BIDEN -1½% | BIDEN +5% |
| Georgia | 16 | TRUMP +5% | TRUMP +2½% | BIDEN +1½% |
| North Carolina | 15 | TRUMP +3½% | BIDEN +2½% | BIDEN +3% |
| Arizona | 11 | TRUMP +3½% | BIDEN +6% | BIDEN +4½% |
| Florida | 29 | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +3½% | BIDEN +2½% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +4½% | BIDEN +2½% |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | TRUMP +½% | BIDEN +4% | BIDEN +2.5% |
| Michigan | 16 | TRUMP +<½% | BIDEN +3½% | BIDEN +2% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | CLINTON +½% | BIDEN +6% | BIDEN +3% |
| Minnesota | 10 | CLINTON +1½% | BIDEN +4½% | BIDEN +1½% |
| Maine | 10 | CLINTON +3½% | BIDEN +12% | BIDEN +4½% |
