The following workings are based on the preliminary results from the 2022 census.
I was originally going to work solely on the basis of a 171 seat Dail – but based on Adrian Kavanagh’s post regarding what a Boundary Commission might be likely to do, I’m also going to include an analysis based on a 176 seat Dáil.
SCENARIO A – A 171 SEAT DAIL
Under Scenario A, County Kildare would be entitled to 8.24 seats – which is within the 5% deviation (7.6-8.4 seats) allowed from the National Average – provided of course both constituencies stay within that national average
Option 1 – Two Four Seaters
The easiest way to ensure that Kildare supports two four-seaters is to transfer seven District Electoral Divisions in the North-West of the constituency (with a population of 9,806 souls) into Kildare South.
This would be a predominantly rural area on the northern border of the Kildare portion of the Bog of Allen. The only town is Prosperous in the south-east of the area – it also contains the village of Johnstownbridge in the north-west.