Carol Nolan was first elected to the Birr Electoral Area of Offaly County Council in 2014, taking just over 10% of the vote and being elected on the 5th count (with Fine Gael transfers). She also took a quarter of John Leahy’s first count surplus – Leahy outpolled her by more than 2 to 1 in this contest, but she was to best him in both the 2016 and 2020 General Elections.
The 2016 General Election
The 2020 General Election
Changes between 2016 and 2020
Conclusion
The following workings are based on the preliminary results from the 2022 census.
I was originally going to work solely on the basis of a 171 seat Dail – but based on Adrian Kavanagh’s post regarding what a Boundary Commission might be likely to do, I’m instead going to concentrate on a 176 seat Dáil.
The Counties of Laois and Offaly combined have a population of 174,325 souls which – under Scenario A – would entitle them jointly to 6 seats (5.99 seats based on Population divided by ratio of number of people per Dail Seat).
However, while Laois (entitled to just under 3.15 seats, therefore just within the maximum allowed deviation) could be a standalone constituency, Offaly (entitled to 2.84 seats) is just outside the maximum permitted variance. This can be easily remedied by a transfer of population from Laois to Offaly.
The most obvious Electoral Division is Portarlington South which contains the roughly two-thirds of Portarlington town which lies south of the Laois-Offaly border (Whatever bright spark in bygone days decided to situate Portarlington straddling the border of two counties clearly did not have the interests of future political cartographers and boundary commissioners foremost in their minds).
Continue reading Preliminary Census Returns – Laois and Offaly
