I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
CONTENTS
Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points
I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
CONTENTS
Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points
Neasa Hourigan has – at least temporarily – departed the Green Party fold and now represents Dublin Central as an Independent. This means the total number of years that Dublin Central has hosted a Green TD is just over two – it remains to be seen whether Hourigan will come back under the party whip to augment that total.
Dublin Central wouldn’t hitherto have been considered natural territory for the Greens as it historically has a strongly working-class population in the Inner City and in Cabra, but in the last two decades there has been an increasing younger middle-class presence.
Recently the Phoenix published an article about the possible ramifications of the census – in particular population growth – on the redrawing of boundaries when figures become available. This is particularly pertinent because of the current constitutional requirement that there be that ratio of TDs to population be no more than 1:30,000 – which limit we were only just under in 2016. The population growth since then probably means that up to 10 extras seats will be required.
I’m going to take – roughly – the possible redrawing of boundaries proscribed by the Phoenix article, and look at the possible outcomes in the two putative constituencies – which I’m calling Dublin North Central and Dublin Fingal South – that would arise from the ashes of Dublin Bay North.
Continue reading Dublin Bay North – What a (possible) Carve-Up!
Dublin South-West is a constituency of contrasts – nearly one-half of voters live in predominantly working-class areas, while one-third of voters live in predominantly middle-class areas. And there are sharp contrasts in how the votes fell in the different areas. Continue reading SCENES FROM THE CLASS STRUGGLE IN DUBLIN STH-WEST
SCENES FROM THE CLASS STRUGGLE IN DUBLIN SOUTH-CENTRAL
Dublin South-Central is a predominantly working-class constituency – two-thirds of voters live in areas here where less than 30% of the Households are headed by a middle-class earner – but there were significant differences between how working-class areas and middle-class areas voted.
For instance in mainly working-class areas (ie less than 30% of middle-class Household heads), Sinn Fein took 28% of the vote, Independents… For Change (Joan Collins) took 17%, Fianna Fail and People Before Profit took 12% each, and Fine Gael were fifth with 10%. Labour took 6%. Continue reading SCENES FROM THE CLASS STRUGGLE IN DUBLIN STH-CENTRAL