CONTENTS
The following article discusses the findings of the IPSOS exit poll on the first round of voting on 18th May 2025.
Results by Educational Attainment
NATIONAL RESULTS
The candidates covered are :
| CANDIDATE | PARTY | TYPE | R1% | R2% | |
| Trzaskowzi | KO | Centrist | 31.4% | 49.1% | |
| Nawrocki | PiS | Right | 29.5% | 50.9% | |
| Mentzen | KWIN | Far-Right | 14.8% | ||
| Braun | KKP | Far-Right | 6.3% | ||
| Holownia | TD | Centre-Right | 5.0% | ||
| Zandbeg | RAZEM | Left | 4.9% | ||
| Biejat | NL | Centre-Left | 4.2% | ||
| Others | 3.9% |
KO refers to the Civic Coalition, a centrist coalition of several parties established in 2018. The main ones are the Civic Platform, founded in 2001, which is a moderately Liberal pro-European centre-right party, and Modern, which is a Liberal pro-European Right-Wing parry. It aligns with the Renew Europe Group in the European parliament. Their candidate was Rafal Trzaskowski, former Mayor of Warsaw.
PiS refers to Law and Order, a populist right-wing party founded in 2001.it is categorised as a Conservative Eurosceptic left-populist party. It aligns with the European Conservatives and Reformers group in the European Parliament. Its candidate was Karol Nawrocki, a historian.
KWIN refers to Confederation Liberty and Independence, an economically Liberal Hard Right Electoral alliance between the New Hope and National parties established in 2018. It aligns with the Patriots for Europe and European Social Network in the European Parliamebt. Its candidate was Tax Advisor, Slawomir Mentzen.
KKP refers to the Confederation of the Polish Crown which is an ultra-conservative party founded by Grzegorz Braun in preparation for his participation in this election. Essentially a vehicle for Braun who is known for extremist comments and actions such as destroying a Jewish Menorah which had been erected in the Sejm (Polish Parliament)
TD refers to Third Way, a mildy conservative centrist alliance of Poland 2050 and the Polish Peoples Party formed in 2023. It aligns with the European Peoples Party and Renew in the European Parlianent. Its candidate was Syzmon Holownia, a former Television Personality.
RAZEM is a Progressive Social Democratic party founded in 2015. It was originally a member of The Left coalition but left in 2024 over disagreements about supporting Donald Tusk’s government. It’s candidate was Adrian Zandberg, a computer programmer.
NL refers to The Left, a centre-left Liberal coalition of six small left-wing parties, the most prominent of which is probably New Left. Its candidate was Magdelena Biejat who was originally a member of RAZEM but remained with The Left in the 2024 split.
VOTE BY GENDER
Below are results from the exit poll showing the Results by Gender. The top three parties listed would be likely supportive of Nawrocki (PiS), the other four of Trzaskowzi (PO).
| PARTY | MALE | FEMALE |
| PiS | 29 | 31 |
| CON | 20 | 10 |
| CPC | 8 | 5 |
| Nawrocki | 55 | 46 |
| KO | 28 | 35 |
| TD | 4 | 5 |
| RAZEM | 4 | 6 |
| NL | 2 | 6 |
| Trzaskowzi | 39 | 51 |
In the first round the two main candidates were roughly equal amongst men, but Trzaskowzi held a small lead amongst women. However, the far-right parties (Confederation and Confederation of the Polish Crown) were much more popular amongst men (28% to 15%) than women. Amongst the smaller Trzaskowzi-leaning parties, they received 17% from females but only 10% from Males.
VOTE BY AGE
| PARTY | 18-29 | 30-39 | 40-49 | 50-59 | 60+ |
| PiS | 11 | 20 | 27 | 36 | 45 |
| CON | 35 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| CPC | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| Nawrocki | 51 | 54 | 47 | 50 | 51 |
| KO | 13 | 22 | 34 | 27 | 43 |
| TD | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| RAZEM | 19 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| NL | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Trzaskowzi | 41 | 40 | 49 | 47 | 47 |
The real story here is not the age disparity in support between the two blocs, but rather the vote disparity within the two blocks. For instance amongst the youngest voters Confederation outpolled PiS more than 3 to 1; amongst the oldest PiS outpolled them by 15 to 1. Similarly KO were outpolled by 19% to 13% against the centre-Left Razem but were dominant amongst the oldest voters.
VOTE BY EDUCATION
| PARTY | PRIM. | 2nd-L | VOC. | 3rd-L |
| PiS | 52 | 49 | 30 | 20 |
| CON | 13 | 13 | 17 | 13 |
| CPC | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Nawrocki | 71 | 70 | 54 | 38 |
| KO | 16 | 22 | 29 | 39 |
| TD | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| RAZEM | 5 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| NL | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Trzaskowzi | 26 | 28 | 42 | 57 |
Nawrocki (PiS) leads strongly amongst voters whose education didn’t go beyond 2nd level, taking roughly half the vote with another one fifth going to the Far-Right Confederation parties. Trzaskowski led Nawrocki by 2 to 1 amongst voters with a 3rd level education.
VOTE BY SETTLEMENT TYPE
| PARTY | RURAL | TOWN | S.CITY | M.CITY | L.CITY |
| PiS | 38 | 30 | 24 | 19 | 18 |
| CON | 17 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 11 |
| CPC | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| Nawrocki | 63 | 50 | 43 | 34 | 32 |
| KO | 22 | 34 | 38 | 43 | 41 |
| TD | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| RAZEM | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| NL | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Trzaskowzi | 33 | 46 | 53 | 61 | 62 |
Nawrocki only led Trzaskowni amongst rural voters (38% to 22%) but in composite support he bested Trzaskowni narrowly in town areas. The latter was well ahead in cities, particularly large cities.
VOTE BY OCCUPATION
| PARTY | MANAGER | ADMIN | WORKER | FARMER | STUDENT | UNEMPLOYED |
| PiS | 17 | 24 | 37 | 52 | 10 | 34 |
| CON | 15 | 16 | 22 | 14 | 26 | 18 |
| CPC | 5 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| Nawrocki | 37 | 47 | 69 | 77 | 41 | 61 |
| KO | 37 | 30 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 20 |
| TD | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| RAZEM | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 6 |
| NL | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Trzaskowzi | 57 | 49 | 26 | 19 | 52 | 35 |
The Breakdown of Occupational support suggests the parties likely to support Trzaskowzi tended to be more middle-class (Managers 57%, Administrators 49%) than working-class. On the other hand, parties likely to support Narwocki received very strong support from Farmers (77%), ordinary workers (69%) and the unemployed (61%).
Support was more mixed amongst Students (Trzaskowzi bloc 52%, Narwocki bloc 41%) but the real story here was that neither PiS nor the Civic Coalition topped the poll – instead the left-wing Razem party and the Far-Right Confederation took a quarter of the student vote each. There was a similar pattern in the 18-29 age group with Confederation taking over a third of the vote and Razem taking a fifth.
COMMENTARY
This IPSOS exit poll gives a fascinating insight into the coalitions of support for what might be called the Conservative/Populist Bloc (Law and Order, Confederation, Confederation of the Polish Crown) on one side and a Liberal/Left Bloc (Civic Coalition, Third Way, New Left, RAZEM) on the other.
At a bloc-level, the major differences can be seen in the Occupational, Residential and Educational (Conservative/Populists well ahead amongst ordinary workers and farmers, rural dwellers and no post-secondary education – Left/Liberals ahead amongst higher occupational grades, city-dwellers and Graduates) poll results.
Bloc support is more muted by Gender with Conservative/Populist parties leading by just under 10 points with Males, and Liberal/Left parties leading by just over 10 points with Females – however the female deficit on the Conservative/Populist side is almost totally due to the huge gender gap in votes for the Confederation candidates – they attracted the support of 28% of Male voters but only 15% of Fenale voters.
On the surface, it appears that there is remarkably little preferential difference amongst the Blocs across the age groups. However here it might be better to look not at ideological differences but rather a cleavage between the “Establishment” parties who have wielded power (ie Law and Justice and Civic Coalition) and the other contenders. The Establishment parties together take only a quarter of the votes of the youngest voters, but nearly 90% of votes of the oldest. The two Confederation candidates took 40% of the vote amongst voters under 30, the left-wing parties took 25% (mainly RAZEM). The growth in Confederation’s vote – and its strong support amongst the young – suggests it could be well-placed to challenge PiS for dominance on the right.
It is also worth noting that Law and Justice’s strong vote amongst voters who did not progress beyond secondary schooling, might seem to be related to the pattern of their age support, but paradoxically the Civic Coalition – who were also disproportionately supported by older voters – did best amongst voters with a third-level education. What seems simple to the naked eye might be somewhat more complicated. The smaller liberal/left parties also did best amongst the third-level educated.