What the Electoral Commission might do – South-East Leinster

In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.

Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.

However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.

Continue reading What the Electoral Commission might do – South-East Leinster

What the Electoral Commission might do – South Connaught

In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.

Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.

However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.

Continue reading What the Electoral Commission might do – South Connaught

What The Electoral Commission might do – East Munster (excluding Cork)

In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.

Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.

However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.

Continue reading What The Electoral Commission might do – East Munster (excluding Cork)

What The Electoral Commission might do – North Dublin

In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.

Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.

However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.

Continue reading What The Electoral Commission might do – North Dublin

What the Electoral Commission might do – North Leinster

In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.

Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.

However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.

Continue reading What the Electoral Commission might do – North Leinster

The Poll Average on 1st March 2023

I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….

PARTY
VOTE
+/-
SEATS
+/-
SINN FEIN
32%
+8
58
+21
FINE GAEL
22%
 +1
37
+2 
FIANNA FAIL
19%
-3
30
-8
GREENS
4%
-3
5
-7
LABOUR
4%
 
2
-4
Others
8%
8
-5
Inds
10%
-3
20
+1

CONTENTS

Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points

Continue reading The Poll Average on 1st March 2023

What the Electoral Commission might do : South-West Leinster

In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.

Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.

However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.

Continue reading What the Electoral Commission might do : South-West Leinster

The Independent-minded Carol Nolan….

Carol Nolan was first elected to the Birr Electoral Area of Offaly County Council in 2014, taking just over 10% of the vote and being elected on the 5th count (with Fine Gael transfers). She also took a quarter of John Leahy’s first count surplus – Leahy outpolled her by more than 2 to 1 in this contest, but she was to best him in both the 2016 and 2020 General Elections.

The 2016 General Election
The 2020 General Election
Changes between 2016 and 2020
Conclusion

Continue reading The Independent-minded Carol Nolan….

The Poll Average on 1st February 2023

I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….

PARTY
VOTE
+/-
SEATS
+/-
SINN FEIN
32%
+8
61
+24
FINE GAEL
21%
 
35
 
FIANNA FAIL
19%
-3
33
-5
GREENS
4%
-3
2
-10
LABOUR
4%
 
4
-2
Others
9%
+1 
9
-4
Inds
11%
-2
16
-3

CONTENTS

Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points

Continue reading The Poll Average on 1st February 2023