This post looks at ten District Electoral Areas where Sinn Féin may have under-nominated candidates in the recent Northern Ireland Local Elections. Sinn Féin are no strangers to under-nomination as they missed out on up to ten seats in the southern Irish General Election of 2020.
Six of the ten areas are in just two Councils, Causeway Coast and Glens and Mid-Ulster. Did Sinn Féin underestimate the swing to them in those council areas in particular? This is something I intend to look at later.
Please note : unless the A Graph Title specifically names a District Electoral Area, all pie charts are based on NI-wide data.
DISTRICT ELECTORAL AREAS
BELFAST – CASTLE (6 SEATS)
| PARTY | CANDIDATE | FIRST COUNT | FIFTH COUNT |
| Sinn Féin | Brónach Anglin | 2,479 | ELECTED 1st |
| Sinn Féin | Conor Maskey* | 2,068 | ELECTED 1st |
| DUP | Fred Cobain* | 1,775 | ELECTED 1st |
| Quota = 1,758 | |||
| DUP | Dean McCullough* | 1,671 | ELECTED 4th |
| Alliance | Sam Nelson* | 1,392 | ELECTED 4th |
| SDLP | Carl Whyte* | 1,047 | 1,628.53 EL |
| Green (NI) | Malachai O’Hara* | 979 | 1,553.88 |
| Ulster Unionist | J. Corr-Johnston | 553 | |
| PBP | Barney Doherty | 250 | |
| Workers’ Party | Lily Kerr | 86 | |
On the first count, Sinn Féin had 2.59 quotas, compared to 0.60 for the SDLP.
The two Sinn Féin surpluses increased Whyte’s (SDLP) lead over O’Hara (Greens) from 68 votes to just over 285 by the third count. However the triple elimination of the UUP, WP and PBP saw the gap close again to 134 votes and the DUP surplus saw the the SDLP lead reduce further to just 75 on the final count.
If Sinn Féin had a reasonable vote split between three candidates they might have a slight chance of gaining a third seat, but it seems far more likely that the SDLP candidate (Whyte) would have fallen behind the Green candidate (O’Hara) and enough of Whyte’s transfers would go to O’Hara to take him over at least one of the Sinn Féin candidates.
There were only two small transfers where both Sinn Féin and the Greens were available for terminal SDLP votes; however they were both also in Belfast and one was a first count surplus. Sinn Féin and the Greens got about 20% each, but Alliance took nearly half the transfers – one can reasonably surmise that SDLP-Alliance ballot papers are more likely to transfer Green than to Sinn Féin.
CAUSEWAY COAST AND GLENS – BENBRADAGH (5 SEATS)
| PARTY | CANDIDATE | FIRST COUNT | 7th COUNT |
| Sinn Féin | Séan McGlinchey* | 1,888 | ELECTED 1st |
| Sinn Féin | Dermot Nicholl* | 1,558 | ELECTED 1st |
| Quota = 1,309 | |||
| DUP | Edgar Scott* | 1,231 | ELECTED 6th |
| Sinn Féin | Kathleen McGurk* | 1172 | ELECTED 2nd |
| UUP | Robert Carmichael | 600 | |
| Aontu | Liam McElhinney | 494 | 825.25 |
| SDLP | Michael Coyle | 441 | 1187.60 EL |
| ALL | Christine Turner | 353 | |
| IND | Niall Murphy | 118 | |
Sinn Féin had over three and half (3,53) quotas on the first count, whereas the SDLP (represented by 75 year old veteran Michael Coyle, who was previously a Councillor for the area between 1993 and 2011) had little over third of a quota (0.34).
The SDLP in fact found themselves in the ignominious position of starting behind Aontu and had to rely on Sinn Féin, UUP and Alliance votes to put them ahead.
Interestingly, the first two (non-terminal) Sinn Féin surpluses favoured Aontu over the SDLP, and by the third count McElhinney had stretched his lead over Coyle from 53 votes to 96. However the terminal transfer’s of McGurk’s surplus favoured the SDLP (161 votes) over Aontu (44 votes) giving Coyle a lead of 20.
The remaining transfers from Alliance, the UUP and DUP all helped to extend Coyle’s lead.
So – could Sinn Féin have taken a fourth seat at the expense of the SDLP. Quite possibly, provided their vote management was decent. Coyle (SDLP) got 269 transfers from Sinn Féin so if you subtract that from his 7th count vote (1,187) you get 918.
You also have to factor in the Aontu distribution, as McElhinney would be eliminated in this scenario. How would his 500 or so votes split? In the four DEAs that both the SDLP and Sinn Féin were available to receive Aontu transfers, both parties got roughly 30% each with a quarter being non-transferable. This would bring Coyle’s vote to somewhere between 1,050 and 1,100.
So ideally, Sinn Féin would want its fourth/lowest candidate to be not much under 1,000 votes on the first count given that it would not expect to receive many votes – bar from Aontu.
CAUSEWAY COAST AND GLENS – LIMAVADY (5 SEATS)
| PARTY | CANDIDATE | FIRST COUNT | 7th COUNT |
| Sinn Féin | Brenda Chivers* | 1,800 | ELECTED 1st |
| DUP | Stephen Callaghan* | 1,010 | ELECTED 1st |
| Quota = 1,006 | |||
| IND | James McCorkell* | 562 | 895.41 |
| ALL | Amy Meirs | 547 | 931.65 EL |
| UUP | Barry Crawford | 511 | |
| DUP | Aaron Callan* | 496 | ELECTED 6th |
| DUP | Jordan Wallace | 478 | |
| SDLP | Ashling Schenning* | 443 | ELECTED 3rd |
| AON | John Boyle | 153 | |
| IND | Billy Stewart | 31 | |
Here Sinn Féin had nearly 1.8 quotas, but only 1 candidate. By contrast the SDLP’s outgoing Councillor Ashling Schenning had less than half a quota (0.44). She received over 500 votes from the first count Sinn Féin surplus and was put over the line on the next count by the Aontu elimination. The Nationalist vote was just under 40% here.
Elsewhere, Independent (and former DUP) Councillor James McCorkell came third on the first count but was narrowly beaten for the last seat by Alliance’s Amy Meirs who benefitted from Sinn Féin, SDLP and Aontu transfers.
So, could Sinn Féin have taken a second seat? The answer would seem to be very likely as Schenning would likely have been “marooned” without a Sinn Féin transfer coming her way. Her only chance of taking a seat would be to get above the Alliance candidate, but given that Sinn Féin would also be in competition for votes from the Aontu elimination it would be very unlikely that she would have received enough. Instead her votes would have been likely to secure the election of the two Sinn Féin and Alliance candidates.
CAUSEWAY COAST AND GLENS – THE GLENS (5 SEATS)
| PARTY | CANDIDATE | FIRST COUNT | 6th COUNT |
| Sinn Féin | Cara McShane* | 1,913 | ELECTED 1st |
| Sinn Féin | Oliver McMullan* | 1,462 | ELECTED 1st |
| Quota = 1,284 | |||
| Sinn Féin | Maighread Watson | 1,142 | ELECTED 2nd |
| DUP | Bill Kennedy | 945 | ELECTED 5th |
| ALL | Glenise Morgan | 733 | 1016.99 |
| SDLP | Margaret Ann McKillop* | 652 | 1273.90 EL |
| UUP |
Wesley Craig | 587 | |
| Aontu | John Robbie | 235 | |
Again Sinn Féin had over three and half quotas (3,52) on the first count, whereas the SDLP merely had half a quota (0.51).
Outgoing Councillor Margaret McKillop of the SDLP started off 81 votes behind Glenise Morgan of Alliance, but favourable transfers from Sinn Féin (410 for SDLP, 151 for Alliance) and Aontu (180 to 50) meant that she took the last seat by 257 votes.
However – as can be seen from the figures above – she took 259 more transfers from Sinn Féin than Morgan. In other words – if four Sinn Féin candidates had been on the tickets and therefore no terminal Sinn Féin transfers available – Morgan and McKillop would theoretically most likely be within a few votes of one another. However, the fact that several Sinn Féin candidates would now be available for transfer would significantly the transfers the SDLP would receive from Aontu, leaving them possibly 50-100 votes behind Alliance after Aontu and UUP transfers.
So what would the likely result?
If the Sinn Féin vote remains reasonably well-balanced, their lowest candidate would stay ahead of the SDLP candidate (and possibly the Alliance candidate), but the SDLP transfers would likely see the Alliance candidate take the last seat by a comfortable margin irrespective of how well balanced the ticket is.
However, if the Sinn Féin vote is not well balanced, their lowest candidate might fall behind the SDLP candidate. If the Sinn Féin candidate was to be eliminated, their preferences should ensure the eventual election of the SDLP candidate above the Alliance candidate by a comfortable margin once all the internal Sinn Féin transfers have been exhausted.
So the verdict is that a fourth Sinn Féin candidate likely wouldn’t mean a fourth Sinn Féin seat, but rather Alliance very likely replacing the SDLP.
FERMANAGH AND OMAGH – ERNE EAST (5 SEATS)
| PARTY | CANDIDATE | FIRST COUNT | 7th COUNT |
| Sinn Féin | Sheamus Greene* | 1,753 | ELECTED 1st |
| DUP | Paul Robinson* | 1,410 | ELECTED 1st |
| Sinn Féin | Thomas O’Reilly* | 1,387 | ELECTED 1st |
| Sinn Féin | Noeleen Hayes | 1,296 | ELECTED 1st |
| Quota = 1,212 | |||
| UUP | Victor Warrington* | 1,115 | ELECTED 3rd |
| IND | Eamon Keenan* | 560 | 1068.17 |
| SDLP |
Garbhan McPhillips* | 498 | 1145.86 EL |
| Ind | Tina McDermott | 228 | |
| Alliance | Richard Bullick | 221 | |
In Erne East, Sinn Féin – who only took two of the six seats last time – saw all three of their candidates elected on the first count. In fact they had 3.7 quotas between them. By contrast the outgoing SDLP and Independent Councillors had less than half a quota each.
The outgoing Independent Councillor Eamon Keenan self-describes as a “Socialist Republican” who ran under the Independents 4 Real Change banner – which his predecessor John McCloskey had also run under. I think Tina McDermott may have been his running mate. McPhillips of the SDLP started 62 votes behind Keenan but secured more Sinn Féin transfers (364 and 230). The final count saw McPhillips take the last seat by 77 votes.
The fact that McPhillips had a 134 vote advantage amongst the Sinn Féin transfers suggests that if there had been a fourth Sinn Féin candidate he wouldn’t have been able to overtake Keenan and that his vote would determine whether Keenan or the Sinn Féin candidate would take the final seat. However, the Sinn Féin candidate would probably be well ahead of Keenan, which means that the SDLP transfer would have to favour Keenan by 2 or 3 to 1.
FERMANAGH AND OMAGH – MID-TYRONE (6 seats)
| PARTY | CANDIDATE | FIRST COUNT | 8th COUNT |
| Sinn Féin | Padraigin Kelly* | 1,621 | ELECTED 1st |
| Sinn Féin | Roisin Gallagher | 1,464 | ELECTED 1st |
| Quota = 1,221 | |||
| Sinn Féin | Anne FitzGerald* | 1,204 | ELECTED 1st |
| Sinn Féin | Patrick Withers* | 1,072 | ELECTED 1st |
| DUP | Shirley Hawkes | 1,057 | ELECTED 3rd |
| UUP | Rosemary Barton* | 687 | |
| IND |
Emmet McAleer* | 629 | 926.24 |
| SDLP |
Bernard McGrath | 497 | 1087.24 EL |
| Alliance | Matthew Beaumont | 311 | |
In Mid-Tyrone, Sinn Féin outpolled the SDLP by nearly 11 to 1, with Sinn Féin taking 4.37 quotas and the SDLP only 0.41.
The SDLP’s Bernard McGrath actually managed to gain a seat from Environmentally-focussed Independent Councillor Emmet McAleer despite starting 132 votes behind him on the first count; he benefitted from transfers from Sinn Féin, the UUP and DUP, and Alliance to catch up with and then overtake McAleer.
If there had been a fifth Sinn Féin candidate, would they have taken a fifth seat. Probably not . But the absence of Sinn Féin surpluses would mean that Bernard McGrath would not be able to get ahead of the UUP’s Rosemary Burton and in fact would likely be eliminated early on. His transfers should have ensured McAleer getting ahead of Barton, and her elimination and the DUP surplus should have seen McAleer home ahead of the final Sinn Féin candidate.
MID ULSTER – COOKSTOWN (7 seats)
| PARTY | CANDIDATE | FIRST COUNT | 9th COUNT |
| Sinn Féin | Cathal Mallaghan* | 2,057 | ELECTED 1st |
| Sinn Féin | John McNamee* | 1,771 | ELECTED 1st |
| Quota = 1,287 | |||
| DUP | Wilbert Buchanan* | 1,249 | ELECTED 7th |
| Sinn Féin | Gavin Bell* | 1,215 | ELECTED 2nd |
| SDLP | Kerri Wilson* | 769 | ELECTED 4th |
| DUP | Eva Cahoon | 768 | 919.54 EL |
| UUP | Trevor Wilson* | 702 | 1201.33 EL |
| TUV | Timothy Hagan | 663 |
740.19 |
| UUP | Mark Glasgow* | 526 | |
| Alliance | Chris Hillcox | 424 | |
| IND | Louise Taylor | 44 | |
Sinn Féin had nearly four quotas (3.92) between its three candidates, while the outgoing SDLP Councillor had less than two-thirds of a quota.
Despite not being Transfer-friendly, Sinn Féin should have little problem securing four seats given how close they were to four quotas and also their extremely high internal transfer rate (84% in this election).
In fact, in Cookstown, the internal transfer rate for Sinn Féin was even higher at over 91% – of Cathal Mallaghan’s 870 surplus votes, 795 went to his running-mate Gavin Bell.
Despite starting in fifth place, the SDLP candidate Kerri Wilson would be effectively “marooned” by lack of Sinn Fein transfers (she received no less than 612 over the first three counts) and would finish at least two hundred votes behind the UUP’s Trevor Wilson and the DUP’s Eva Cahoon on the final count.
MID ULSTER – MAGHERAFELT (5 seats)
| PARTY | CANDIDATE | FIRST COUNT | 6th COUNT |
| Sinn Féin | Darren Totten* | 2,077* | ELECTED 1st |
| Sinn Féin | Sean Clarke* | 1,530* | ELECTED 1st |
| Quota = 1,377 | |||
| DUP | Paul McLean* | 1,143 | 1616.92 EL |
| DUP | Wesley Brown* | 967 | 1526.32 EL |
| SDLP | Christine McFlynn* | 804 | ELECTED 3rd |
| TUV |
Raymond Love | 671 | |
| UUP | Ian Brown | 587 | |
| ALL | Padraic Farrell | 478 |
786.92 |
Sinn Féin had 2.62 quotas between its two outgoing Councillors while the outgoing SDLP Councillor had 0.58 quotas. Even with a well-balanced three-candidate Sinn Féin ticket it wouldn’t have been quite enough – if the Alliance elimination failed to put McFlynn above the lowest Sinn Féin candidate, the DUP surpluses surely would.
Interestingly the Alliance candidate Padraic Farrell started last on the first count, but stayed in the race until the final one – albeit finishing more than half a quota behind Wesley Brown of the DUP.
MID ULSTER – MOYOLA (5 seats)
| PARTY | CANDIDATE | FIRST COUNT | 8th COUNT |
| Sinn Féin | Ian Milne* | 2,219 | ELECTED 1st |
| Sinn Féin | Jolene Groogan | 1,874 | ELECTED 1st |
| DUP | Anne Forde | 1,563 | ELECTED 1st |
| Quota = 1,527 | |||
| Sinn Féin | Donal McPeake* | 1,143 | ELECTED 2nd |
| SDLP | Denise Johnson | 651 | 1486.61 EL |
| UUP | Derek McKinney* | 592 | 1112.86 |
| TUV |
Glenn Moore | 519 | |
| Aontu | Sheila Fullerton | 347 | |
| ALL | Caleb Ross | 247 |
|
Sinn Féin had 3,43 quotas between its three Candidates while the SDLP candidate Denise Johnson only had 0.43 quotas.
Johnson received 371 votes from Sinn Féin transfers which enabled her to stay 119 votes ahead of outgoing Councillor Derek McKinney of the UUP after the TUV elimination – otherwise she would have theoretically been 252 votes behind. On the final count she got 259 of the Aontu transfers compared to 4 for McKinney – which would have left her with a victory margin of three. It’s noteworthy that a sizeable proportion of the Aontu votes were non-transferable.
If there was a fourth Sinn Féin candidate, would they be elected? Probably – if the Sinn Féin ticket is well-balanced. If the fourth Sinn Féin candidate starts behind or only just above Johnson, it is likely that the Alliance transfer will push Johnson ahead – whichever candidate is ahead after the Aontu elimination should take the last seat ahead of McKinney of the UUP.
Interestingly, the Alliance candidate Caleb Ross’ transfers went unusually heavily to Nationalist candidates, the SDLP in particular. Whether this was due to local geographical factors or perhaps a regional trend West of the Bann, I’m not sure.
NEWRY MOURNE AND DOWN – NEWRY (6 seats)
| PARTY | CANDIDATE | FIRST COUNT | 6th COUNT |
| Sinn Féin | Valerie Harte* | 2,085 | ELECTED 1st |
| Sinn Féin | Cathal King* | 1,982 | ELECTED 1st |
| Quota = 1,494 | |||
| Sinn Féin | Aidan Mathers* | 1,483 | ELECTED 2nd |
| Sinn Féin | Geraldine Kearns* | 1,259 | ELECTED 2nd |
| SDLP | Doire Finn | 961 | 1357.98 EL |
| SDLP | Michael Savage* | 935 | 1382.34 EL |
| Alliance |
Helena Young | 830 | 1199.12 |
| Aontu | Sharon Loughran | 318 | |
| UUP | Andrew McCracken | 285 |
|
| IND | Mariya Krupska | 209 | |
| WP | Nicola Grant | 104 | |
Sinn Féin had 4.66 quotas between its four Candidates here while the two SDLP candidates had 1.36 quotas collectively.
Newry was once a stronghold of the SDLP; they took 4 out of 7 seats in 1985 and 1989, but Sinn Féin have been ahead of their nationalist rivals since 1997. The Unionist vote has been in decline for a long time, the last Unionist seat being lost here in 2001.
The two SDLP candidates – Finn and Savage – took 250 and 257 votes respectively from Sinn Féin surpluses; the Alliance candidate Helena Young (who was narrowly beaten for the last seat by the SDLP in 2019) took 134 votes. At face value, this suggests that – sans Sinn Féin transfers – the gap between Finn and Young would have narrowed to approximately 43 votes.
So would Sinn Féin take a second seat? Possibly, but they would need to have tight vote balancing otherwise the (very well-balanced) SDLP candidates would overtake their lowest candidate on Alliance transfers.
CONCLUSION
In eight of the ten District Electoral Areas mentioned above, the SDLP (in my opinion) would be likely to lose their seat – but in only five areas would Sinn Féin be the likely recipient.
In most – if not all – of these areas, an extra Sinn Féin candidate would mean the SDLP failing to benefit from Sinn Féin surpluses leading them to falling behind other parties during the count.
In the table below – vote figures are expressed in quotas and figures in brackets are currently held seats – any gains are at the expense of the SDLP.
| DEA | SEATS | SF | SDLP | ALL | VERDICT |
| Castle | 6 | 2.59 (2) | 0.60 (1) | 0.79 (1) | Likely Green Gain |
| Benbradagh | 5 | 3.53 (3) |
0.34 (1) | 0.27 | Possible SF Gain |
| Limavady | 5 | 1.79 (1) | 0.44 (1) | 0.54 (1) | Likely SF Gain |
| The Glens | 5 | 3.52 (3) | 0.51 (1) | 0.57 | Likely ALL Gain |
| Erne East | 5 | 3.67 (3) | 0.41 (1) | — | Likely SF Gain |
| Mid Tyrone | 7 | 4.37 (4) | 0.41 (1) | 0.25 | Likely IND Gain |
| Cookstown | 7 | 3.92 (3) | 0.60 (1) | 0.33 | Likely SF Gain |
| Magherafelt | 5 | 2.62 (2) | 0.58 (1) | 0.35 | Change Unlikely |
| Moyola | 5 | 3.43 (3) | 0.43 (1) | 0.16 | Likely SF Gain |
| Newry | 6 | 4.66 (4) | 1.36 (2) | 0.56 | Change Unlikely |
On preliminary inspection, many of these areas have been historically strong for Sinn Féin, so it does beg the question how did they underestimate the level of support building for them in areas where they were well-established? I aim to have a look at that.
This post will be added to over time.
Any comments, corrections or observations welcome!