Tipperary North  is a new  (or revived) constituency encompassing the most of the north of Tipperary as well the north-west of Kilkenny (including Urlingford, Tullaroan and Freshford)

THE BIGGEST PARTIES PER DED IN 2020

Nearly 90% of the votes in 2020 were cast in the Tipperary constituency, 8% were cast in Carlow-Kilkenny and 4% in Limerick City (which contained Newport and its environs).

The three largest settlements are Nenagh, Roscrea and Thurles. Smaller towns are Newport and Ballina (both situated in the Barony of Owney and Arra – and both of whom have namesakes in Mayo) and Templemore between Roscrea and Thurles. The area coming in from Kilkenny is mainly rural but has several villages such as Urlingford and Freshford.

Three of the five outgoing TDs took a majority of their vote in 2020 from the area of the new constituency – Michael Lowry (Independent), Alan Kelly (Labour) and Jackie Cahill (Fianna Fáil). Martin Browne TD of Sinn Féin took just over a third of his vote in this area, while Mattie McGrath only took a small proportion.

The following table lists those candidates who took over 2,000 votes in this area OR took over half their vote here in 2020. %TV (Total Vote) refers to the percentage of each candidate’s 2020 vote that lies within the new constituency, while %Q (Quota) refers to what proportion of a new quota each candidate would achieve on their tally vote.

RELEVANT CANDIDATES

SURNAME	PARTY	CONST.	TALLY	%TV	%Q
LOWRY	IND	Tipp.	9,424	72%	0.95
KELLY	LAB	Tipp.	5,932	84%	0.60
CAHILL	FF	Tipp.	4,549	65%	0.46
HANNIGAN	IND	Tipp.	4,012	95%	0.41
BROWNE	SF	Tipp.	3,452	37%	0.04
FARRELL	FF	Tipp.	1,705	83%	0.17

All three TDs mentioned above have solid bases in Tipperary North though both Michael Lowry and Jackie Cahill see significant proportions of their vote go south into Tipperary.  Cahill is only just over five hundred votes ahead of Independent Joe Hannigan but has several thousand Fianna Fáil votes likely to hecome available in transfers while Hannigan is comparatively isolated in the Barony of Lower Ormond above Nenagh and his ability to attract transfers will likely he impaired.

John McGuinness took nearly a third of the vote in the part of North-West Kilkenny – about 950 votes according to the tallies. However, this loss would not have imperilled his seat in 2020.

As can be seen on the map above, it was very much Independents’ day in Tipperary – this was largely due to the vote takes by Michael Lowry TD and Joe Hannigan (in Lower Ormond). Interestingly, neither of the Fine Gael candidates in 2020 achieved a majority of their vote in what is now Tipperary North.

Only parties with sufficient support in this constituency are afforded a  column. CONST stands for constituency and PROP for proportion.

PARTY SUPPORT

CONST	PROP	SF	FF	FG	LAB	OTH	IND
TIPP.	88%	10.0%	19.8%	8.3%	17.2%	2.9%	41.8%
C-KIL.	8%	20.2%	46.9%	22.6%	1.6%	6.1%	3.8%
L. CITY	4%	21.9%	31.9%	20.1%	13.0%	10.4%	2.7%
TOTAL		10.9%	22.1%	9.5%	15.9%	3.5%	38.1%

One note of caution is that Fianna Fáil might not take the same size of vote in Kilkenny that they took in Carlow-Kilkenny in 2020 given the personal appeal of both John McGuinness and Bobby Aylward. That said, Fianna Fail did take 41% in the neighbouring District Electoral Divisions; but that mainly due to the influence of Imelda Goldsboro who would be more likely to run in Tipperary South next time.

It is also worthwhile going back to 2016 and looking at the votes in Birdhill and Newport as these areas voted in Limerick City in 2020 – Alan Kelly took nearly 600 votes (nearly 30%), Fianna Fail 24% and Michael Lowry 18%. Fine Gael took just 11%. Presuming a similar result next time, Kelly would benefit to the extent of an extra 300 votes. Interestingly, Labour’s Jan O’Sullivan took 14% in this area in 2020, well above her vote take in neighbouring parts of rural Limerick.

I thought that this seat might be more competitive but on the tallies it would seem that neither Fine Gael or Sinn Fein would be at the races in the new constituency. Michael Lowry would top the poll, Alan Kelly would be safe due to his loyal vote in Nenagh and to the south of it, and Fianna Fáil have just under a quota.