Dublin Mid-West expands to a five-seater with the addition of the Fettercairn area of Tallaght.
The constituency has existed since 2002, when Fianna Fáil, the Progressive Democrats (Mary Harney) and the Greens won a seat each. It has become markedly more left-wing since 2007 with 3 of the 4 seats now held by left-wing candidates.
THE BIGGEST PARTIES PER DED IN 2020
Dublin Mid-West essentially remains the same except for the addition of the Fettercairn area of Tallaght which (on a low turnout) had one of the highest left-wing tallies in the country – Sinn Féin and Rise got over 80% of the vote between them.
Despite Sinn Féin’s overall dominance, Fine Gael did come first in Newcastle, West Lucan and Rathcoole.
According to the tallies 95% of the votes were cast in Dublin Mid-West while only 5% were in Dublin South-West (Fettercairn) – the latter has nearly 8% of the population but turnout seems to have been low.
The constituency consists of the suburbs of Clondalkin, Lucan, Palmerstown and Fettercairn and also the towns of Rathcoole, Saggart and Newcastle. It is predominantly working-class, particularly so in Palmerstown, Clondalkin and Fettercairn while the other areas are more socially mixed.
SINN FEIN VOTE PER DED IN 2020
The Sinn Féin vote peaked in West Palmerstown, North Clondalkin and Fettercairn. They took three-quarters of the vote in the Rowlagh area of North Clondalkin.
The following table lists those candidates who took over 1,000 votes in this area according to the tallies. %TV (Total Vote) refers to the percentage of each candidate’s 2020 vote that lies within the new constituency, while %Q (Quota) refers to what proportion of a new quota each candidate would achieve on their tally vote.
RELEVANT CANDIDATES
| SURNAME | PARTY | CONST. | TALLY | %TV | %Q |
| O’BROIN | SF | DMW | 11,300 | 100% | 1.48 |
| WARD | SF | DMW | 7,175 | 100% | 0.94 |
| CURRAN | FF | DMW | 4,782 | 100% | 0.63 |
| HIGGINS | FG | DMW | 4,248 | 100% | 0.56 |
| KENNY | S-P | DMW | 3,444 | 100% | 0.45 |
| CASSERLY | FG | DMW | 3,393 | 100% | 0.45 |
| GOGARTY | IND | DMW | 2,869 | 100% | 0.38 |
| KAVANAGH | GP | DMW | 2,681 | 100% | 0.35 |
| TUFFY | LAB | DMW | 1,583 | 100% | 0.21 |
| CROWE | SF | DSW | 1,282 | 7% | 0.17 |
| TIMMONS | IND | DMW | 1,047 | 100% | 0.14 |
With 2.6 quotas between their candidates Sinn Féin – with good vote management – would surely have a pretty decent chance of three seats. However that gain would likely come at the expense rather than in addition to the seat of Solidarity-PBP’s Gino Kenny who would find himself on less than half a quota. On the plus side he would have sizeable left-leaning transfers below him – although of course some of these will be siphoned off by the Sinn Féin candidates.
On the tally figures John Curran of Fianna Fáil would appear to be in a strong position although at just under two-thirds of a quota he cannot be assured of a seat.
The table below shows party support by the percentage of Households per District Electoral Division headed by a Middle-Class wage-earner.
MC stands for Middle-Class (the proportion of Middle Class Households per DED). PROP stands for proportion.
VOTE VS MIDDLE-CLASS HOUSEHOLDS
| MC | PROP | SF | FF | FG | S-P | OTH | IND |
| <20% | 23% | 58% | 8% | 7% | 16% | 5% | 6% |
| 20-30% | 25% | 48% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 8% |
| 30-40% | 10% | 30% | 16% | 24% | 6% | 11% | 13% |
| >40% | 42% | 29% | 14% | 25% | 5% | 14% | 13% |
Both Sinn Fèin and Solidarity-PBP did markedly better in the most working-class DEDs (ie those with less than 30% Middle-Class households), but even in the most middle-class DEDs Sinn Féin were still ahead of Fine Gael – who nonetheless did markedly better in the more middle-class areas.
The table below details the party support in each of the former constituency blocs that make up the new constituency, and also the proportion of the tallied vote that each constituency bloc contains. For instance 95% of the vote in the new constituency was cast in Dublin Mid West in 2020 and Sinn Féin took nearly over 42% there.
Only parties with sufficient support in this constituency are afforded a column. CONST stands for constituency and PROP for proportion.
PARTY SUPPORT
| CONST | PROP | SF | FF | FG | S-P | OTH | IND |
| DMW | 95% | 42.3% | 12.4% | 17.5% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% |
| DSW | 5% | 62.9% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 20.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% |
| TOTAL | 43.3% | 12.0% | 16.9% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% |
As noted above, Sinn Féin and Rise took 83% in Fettercairn – which must nearly be the largest left-wing vote in the country. Add in the Centre-Left parties and the figure reaches 87%. However given the low turnout in Fettercairn, the result there only has a minimal effect on the overall figures in Dublin Mid-West.
Overall, the Left-Wing parties should be guaranteed three seats – the only question is whether Gino Kenny can hold on to his seat or whether three Sinn Féin TDs can be returned. The Government parties have over two quotas between them, but it should be noted that Green Party transfers tend not to gravitate towards Fianna Fáil.