This post is going to have a look at my calculated poll as of the First of May – I’m currently finishing off my new constituency database, so I don’t have seat projections in this post.
Instead I plan to have a look at demographic trends in current polls. To this end, I plan to use poll data from the following pollsters : MRBI, Red C Research, Ireland Thinks, Behaviours & Attitudes and OpinionsIE.
The calculations are based on a time-weighted average of the 10 latest polls (or 5 in the case of the overall vote) in each case. Given that demographic breakdowns are available from some pollsters and not others, demographic figures are adjusted to the Overall vote for each party.
Firstly the current polling average as of May 1st.
| PARTY | 2020 Vote | Poll Average | Change |
| Sinn Féin | 25% | 27% | +2 |
| Fine Gael | 21% | 19% | -2 |
| Fianna Fáil | 22% | 17% | -5 |
| Green Party | 7% | 4% | -3 |
| Labour | 4% | 4% | |
| Social Democrats | 3% | 6% | +3 |
| Aontu | 2% | 3% | +1 |
| Others | 16% | 19% | +3 |
In the 2020 General Election, the current coalition parties took half the vote, and the opposition parties listed took 34% (including smaller left wing parties would bring this factor up to 37%). Currently the Government parties command 40% support (down 10), while the opposition (including smaller left wing parties) command 41%. Support for Independents (including micro parties) has grown from 13% to 18% in the meantime.
The table gives the Polling Averages by region – the second numeric in each column is the change since 2020.
| Party | Dublin | Leinster | Munster | Connaught |
| Sinn Féin | 23% -4 | 30% +4 | 25% +5 | 33% +6 |
| Fine Gael | 22% +1 | 19% -2 | 17% -3 | 20% -3 |
| Fianna Fáil | 14% -1 | 19% -6 | 19% -7 | 15% -7 |
| Green Party | 6% -6 | 3% -3 | 4% -2 | 3% -1 |
| Labour | 5% -1 | 6% +1 | 3% -2 | 1% nc |
| Social Democrats | 9% +3 | 6% +3 | 6% +3 | 2% + 1 |
| Aontu | 3% +2 | 3% +1 | 4% +2 | 4% +1 |
| Others | 18% +5 | 14% +3 | 22% +3 | 22% +5 |
The first thing is that Sinn Féin are actually losing ground in Dublin while still making significant gains in the provinces. However, this is most unlikely to lead to seat losses as in several Dublin constituencies they failed to run a second candidate and missed out on probable/possible seat gains. However this decline in support is now likely to put some of those anticipated second seats in Dublin Central, Dublin Bay North, Dublin South West and several other constituencies into some doubt.
By contrast, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’s collective vote is holding up in the Capital whereas it has taken a collective hit out beyond the M50 – down 8% in Leinster, 10% in both Munster and Connaught-Ulster.
The Green Party were hitherto holding up quite well in Dublin, but their vote seems to have fallen in recent months leaving a question even over their supposedly safe seats south of the Liffey.
The Social Democrats showing at 9% in Dublin opens the possibility of further gains in the capital though precisely where is not immediately obvious. 6% in both Leinster and Munster suggest that they could make a bid for gains in the Pale (where they already have two seats mind), and in metropolitan Munster.
Aontu have seen a slight increase in their vote after the Referenda, but their vote is well spread across the country – which is likely to make seat gains more challenging.
Next we have a look at pary support by Socio-Economic cohort.
| Party | Middle-Class | Working-Class | Farmers |
| Sinn Féin | 20% +2 | 35% +3 | 14% +3 |
| Fine Gael | 22% nc | 15% -4 | 39% +13 |
| Fianna Fáil | 18% -2 | 15% -7 | 23% -17 |
| Green Party | 7% -3 | 2% -3 | 0% -2 |
| Labour | 4% -1 | 4% nc | 2% +1 |
| Social Democrats | 9% | 4% | 0% |
| Aontu | 4% | 3% | 4% |
| Others | 16% | 22% | 19% |
The first caveat here is that the Farmer vote is based on small samples – so the accuracy of either the current level of support or that at the 2020 election has to be somewhat suspect.
The second caveat is that I don’t have data pre-2020 for the smaller parties at present.
According to this analysis, Fianna Fáil’s working-class support has fallen by about a third since the 2020 Election – which means that Fine Gael and Fianna Fail’s support profiles are now actually quite similar. Historically, Fianna Fáil’s support profile tended to be more slanted towards working-class support than Fine Gael’s.
Overall, support for the Government has fallen from 52% to 47% amongst Middle-Class voters and from 46% to 32% amongst Working-Class voters.
Of the Centre-Left parties, Labour’s support is rather cross-class, while both the Greens and the Social Democrats rely heavily on middle-class voters.
Finally party support figures by age cohort
| Party | 18-34 yo | 35-54 yo | 55+ yo |
| Sinn Féin | 37% +2 | 29% +1 | 20% +4 |
| Fine Gael | 12% -4 | 17% -2 | 26% +1 |
| Fianna Fáil | 11% -3 | 15% –5 | 21% –7 |
| Green Party | 6% -4 | 3% -4 | 4% -1 |
| Labour | 3% -1 | 4% nc | 4% -1 |
| Social Democrats | 11% | 6% | 3% |
| Aontu | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Others | 16% | 23% | 19% |
Again I unfortunately don’t have data pre-2020 for the smaller parties at present.
Sinn Féin sees slight rises in support across all age cohorts – in contrast Fianna Fáil support falls by about a quarter in all of them.
The Greens see heavy falls amongst voters under 55 which will be of concern to them, while the Social Democrats are disproportionately supported by younger voters – in fact amongst voters under 35, they are practically equal with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.