HISTORY
The current Dublin Bay South was first contested in 2016, but the (general) area it covered was first contested under the moniker Dublin Townships in 1937 after the areas Pembroke, Rathmines and Rathgar were transferred from Dublin County to Dublin City. The new constituency covered the aforementioned areas but not the south-east Inner City. In the four elections held in the three-seat Dublin Townships, it was very much a straight contest between between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, with Fine Gael taking two of the three seats in 1937 and 1938, and Fianna Fáil two of the three in 1943 and 1944. The one exception was in 1937 when an Independent Maud Walsh came within 119 votes of taking a seat from Fine Gael. Both Sean McEntee and John A Costello were TDs for the area.
Dublin South-East was first contested in 1948 on roughly similar boundaries to Dublin Townships but a major change to its representation with Noel Browne taking a seat for Clann na Poblachta at the expense of Michael Yeats (son of W.B.). Interestingly, Labour had an aristocratic candidate – The Countess of Wicklow polled 8% of the vote on their behalf. All three incumbents (Costello, Browne, McEntee) were returned on the first count in 1951, though Browne was now an Independent. In 1954 he ran under the Fianna Fáil banner but lost his seat as Fine Gael took over half the vote and two of the three seats. Vincent McDowell – father of future Green MEP Nuala Ahern – ran for Labour in this election.
1957 saw Noel Browne return to the Dail this time as an Independent; by 1961 he was representing the left-wing National Progressive Democrats in the Dail. He lost his seat running for Labour in 1965, but regained it in 1969 which was the first year the South-east Inner city was included in the constituency. It was also the first year Garret FitzGerald won a seat for Fine Gael. 1973 saw Ruairi Quinn’s first electoral outing, but he was unable to prevent Fine Gael taking two ouf three seats. In 1977 however he took a seat due to poor Fine Gael vote management, before losing it again in 1981.
1981 was the first election contested on what were broadly the modern boundaries of Dublin South-East and then Bay South. It was also the last time Fianna Fáil took two of the four seats, losing Sean Moore’s seat to Ruairi Quinn against the run of play in February 1982. 1987 saw Michael McDowell of the Progressive Democrats eat directly into the Fine Gael vote to take a seat, only to lose it ignominiously in 1989 – outpolled by John Gormley of the Greens who polled a respectable 10% on this occasion. He regained it in 1992, only to lose it again to John Gormley by 27 votes in 1997.
Above you can see the largest parties in Dublin South-East in 1997 – incidentally the earliest tally I have for any Dublin constituency. Note how Fianna Fáil and Labour topped the poll in the more working-class North while Fine Gael were dominant in the South.
They both won seats in 2002, only for Gormley to best McDowell in the “Rumble in Ranelagh” in 2007. 2002 was also Fine Gael’s annus horribilis, and the unthinkable happened in Dublin South-East with Fine Gael failing to take a single seat. 2011 saw another remarkable result, with Fine Gael and Labour both taking two seats. Defeated Fianna Fáil TD Chris Andrews later defected to Sinn Féin.
Daithi Doolan of Sinn Féin took 7.4% of the vote in 2002 in the party’s first runout in the constituency, but their vote declined in the next two elections despite the party’s gradual growth elsewhere.
2016 saw the creation of Dublin Bay South which included the entirety of the old Dublin South-East plus Terenure and Harolds Cross. It also saw Labour lose both their seats to Fianna Fáil and the Greens. Former Fine Gael TD Lucinda Creighton ran under the Renua banner, only to be bested by Fine Gael newcomer Kate O’Connell.
2020 saw further change with Chris Andrews (now Sinn Féin) taking a seat at the expense of Kate O’Connell of Fine Gael. In 2021 Ivana Bacik of Labour won the by-election caused by the resignation of Eoghan Murphy from the Dáil.
OVERVIEW
A single DED – Kimmage C which contains Harold’s Cross – will be transferred to Dublin South-Central.
RECENT CONSTITUENCY RESULTS
For a constituency which for three decades had returned only Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the second decade of the 21st century was one of tumultuous change. In 2011, Cork South-West returned no Fianna Fáil TD for the first in the history of the constituency and its predecessor. It also returned the first Labour TD in thirty years. All three seats were won by Fine Gael and Labour candidates – in 2020 those parties took no seats.
The following table gives the result of every election in Dublin South-East and Dublin Bay South since 1997.
| YEAR | SEATS | F. Fáil | Fine Gael | Labour | P. D.’s | Green | Sinn Féin | Others | Inds. |
| 1997 | 4 | 25.8% 1 | 27.4% 1 | 16.7% 1 | 10.9% | 11.7% 1 | 6.8%** | 0.7% | |
| 2002 | 4 | 27.0% 1 | 16.1% | 12.4% | 18.8% 1 | 16.2% 1 | 7.4% | 1.8%** | 0.3% |
| 2007 | 4 | 28.7% 1 | 18.6% 1 | 16.6% 1 | 13.2% | 13.8% 1 | 4.7% | 1.8%** | 0.8% |
| 2011 | 4 | 11.2% | 35.6% 2 | 25.4% 2 | 6.8% | 3.6% | 3.3%** | 15.8% | |
| 2016 | 4 | 11.5% 1 | 30.1% 2 | 7.0% | 11.4% 1 | 9.1% | 21.8%** | 1.3% | |
| 2020 | 4 | 13.8% 1 | 27.7% 1 | 7.9% | 22.4% 1 | 16.1% 1 | 9.2%** | 0.4% | |
| 2021 | 1*** | 4.6% | 26.2% | 30.2% 1 | 8.0% | 15.8% | 10.1%** | 5.1% |
NOTES:
* The National Party in 1997 is a different organisation from the current National Party.
** Votes for Others includes…. 1997 – National Party 3.2% Workers Party 1.9% Socialist Workers Party 1.1% Natural Law Party 0.6%, 2002 – Socialist Workers Party 0.9% Workers Party 0.9%, 2007 – People Before Profit 1.8%, 2011 – Greens 1.7% New Vision 1.6%, 2016 – Renua 10.7%, Social Democrats 6.7%, Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit 4.4%, 2020 – Social Democrats 4.5%, Solidarity-People Before Profit 2.5%, Renua 1.6%, Irish Freedom Party 0.6%, 2021 – Social Democrats 3.2%, People Before Profit-Solidarity 2.8%, Aontu 2.8%, National Party 0.7%, Renua 0.6%.
*** 2021 was a bye-election
THE 2020 ELECTION
2020 saw Kate O’Connell – who had herself toppled Lucinda Creighton in 2016 – being toppled by Chris Andrews of Sinn Féin (and previously a Fianna Fáil TD from 2007 to 2011).
Below you can see the top-polling parties per area in the election.
It is interesting to compare the above map with that from nearly a quarter of century before. Fine Gael are ahead in roughly the same areas, but Fianna Fáil and Labour have been replaced by Sinn Féin and the Greens in the north of the city.
It’s worth having a look at a breakdown of the vote in the three Electoral Areas that make up Dublin Bay South – South-East Inner City contains the areas north of the Grand Canal as well as Ringsend and Irishtown, Pembroke includes neighhourhoods in the south-east such as Ballsbridge, Donnybrook, Sandymount and Ranelagh, while the part of Kimmage-Rathmines in Dublin Bay South includes Rathmines, Rathgar and Terenure.
| ELECTORAL AREA | Fianna Fáil | Fine Gael | Sinn Féin | Greens | Others | Ind. | Votes% |
| South-East Inner City | 9% | 14% | 37% | 16% | 20% | 4% | 23% |
| Pembroke | 15% | 34% | 8% | 25% | 16% | 2% | 40% |
| Kimmage-Rathmines | 15% | 30% | 11% | 25% | 17% | 3% | 37% |
Less than a quarter of the votes were cast in the South-East Inner City, but over half of Chris Andrews’ vote came from there – as opposed to just 10% of the Fine Gael vote.
Below are the support maps of the four candidates elected.
Eamon Ryan polled well across much of the constituency, but his vote was highest in Rathmines and Ranelagh as well as crossing the canal over to Portobello
Chris Andrews’ vote by contrast was very much accentuated in the north of the constituency – and also in Harolds Cross which is now going to Dublin South-Central.
Jim O’Callaghan’s vote pattern was quite similar to that of Eoghan Murphy’s – another example perhaps of how Fianna Fáil’s support base has shifted somewhat over the years.
THE 2021 BY-ELECTION
The 2021 By-Election was a straight contest between James Geoghegan of Fine Gael and Ivana Bacik of Labour. At least it was a contest on the first count with just over a thousand votes between them, but by the final count Bacik had stretched her lead to over four thousand votes to win a comprehensive victory.
The Vote Maps for Bacik and Geoghegan are shown below.
The first thing I want to do is to draw attention to is how similar Ivana Bacik’s map is to Eamon Ryan’s 2020 map.
DEMOGRAPHICS
Below I’ve looked at the differing votes per area dependent on the percentage of Middle-Class households (those with an Employer, Managerial or Professional chief bread-winner) per District Electoral Division.
For the 2020 and 2021 results I have used the relevant 2016 census data, for the 1997 results I’ve used 2006 census data (which is the earliest I have). I didn’t use 2022 census data as for 2022 there was a restructuring of the definitions of socio-economic categories which makes it difficult to compare with data from previous censuses.
| AREA TYPE | F.F. | Fine Gael | Labour | Sinn Féin | Greens | Others | Ind. | Proportion |
| < 33% Middle-Class | 3% | 4% | 10% | 63% | 2% | 8% | 7% | 5% |
| 33%-50% Middle-Class | 3% | 13% | 31% | 28% | 8% | 12% | 6% | 24% |
| > 50% Middle-Class | 5% | 32% | 32% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 71% |
A few things to note from the table above:
- Sinn Féin and Fine Gael support are clearly very class-stratified, albeit in different directions.
- Labour and the Greens both do equally well in both socially-mixed areas and the wealthier areas (that dominate this constituency).
One observation I should make is that the population in Dublin Bay South – particularly in the Inner-City area – is quite possibly more middle-class than the Dail electorate due to the relatively high number of rented accommodation in the area. The national private rental rate is around 18%, but in Dublin Bay South it’s over 40%. To illustrate this I’ve made two maps comparing the Private Rental map in Dublin Bay South with its counterpart north of the Liffey in Dublin Bay North.
Note how much of Dublin Bay South has private renting rates of 40% or more, while Dublin Bay North by and large has low private rental rates.
The Central point is that in terms of the table above, several areas in the South-East Inner City might have areas that are more than one-third middle-class in terms of households but less than one-third in terms of electorate.
Below are the figures for 2020.
| AREA TYPE | F.F. | Fine Gael | Labour | Sinn Féin | Greens | Others | Ind. | Proportion |
| < 33% Middle-Class | 6% | 7% | 6% | 57% | 8% | 10% | 5% | 5% |
| 33%-50% Middle-Class | 11% | 17% | 9% | 26% | 21% | 12% | 4% | 25% |
| > 50% Middle-Class | 15% | 33% | 8% | 9% | 24% | 8% | 2% | 70% |
The patterns are pretty similar to what we saw for the 2021 bye-election, except that the Greens clearly replace Labour as the Centre-Left choix-du-jour. Interestingly, of the four candidates elected, three did best in the most middle-class areas of the constituency and one did best in the least – none did best in the “middling” parts of the constituency.
Just out of interest, I also had a look at the 1997 results (using the 2006 census)
| AREA TYPE | F.F. | Fine Gael | Labour | P.D.s | Greens | Others | Ind. | Proportion |
| < 33% Middle-Class | 35% | 18% | 20% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 8% |
| 33%-50% Middle-Class | 29% | 18% | 21% | 6% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 21% |
| > 50% Middle-Class | 24% | 31% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 71% |
As can be seen clearly, the voting patterns were not as aggressively class-based as they were in 2020 and 2021. Fianna Fáil and Labour did somewhat better outside the wealthier areas, Fine Gael did somewhat inside them, the Greens did best in the “middling” parts of the constituency – it was only the Progressive Democrats who did notably better in the wealthier areas.
TRANSFERS
Below are details of the main transfers during the 2020 count.
| CNT | PTY | F.F. | F.G. | LAB | S.F. | Others/Ind. | NT | Total |
| 2 | Greens | 113 (12%) | 279 (29%) | 234 (24%) | 51 (5%) | 292 (30%) | 969 | |
| 6 | Renua | 251 (31%) | 116 (14%) | 73 (8%) | 57 (7%) | 146 (17%) | 202 (24%) | 847 |
| 7 | Left* | 203 (6%) | 265 (8%) | 1,382 (40%) | 1,122 (32%) | 520 (15%) | 3,492 | |
| 8 | Labour | 835 (17%) | 1,978 (40%) | 960 (19%) | 1,188 (24%) | 4,971 |
*Left refers to Social Democrats and Solidarity-People Before Profit.
In truth, the transfers made little change to the final result – Jim O’Callaghan of Fianna Fáil was 1,150 votes ahead of Kate O’Connell of Fine Gael on the first count, 888 votes on the final one. But some of the patterns were interesting so we’ll have a look.
Interestingly, a larger part of the Green surplus on the first count went to Fine Gael (29%) than to their Centre-Left colleague Labour (24%) – the Social Democrats also got 19%.
Fianna Fáil took nearly one third of the Renua transfers on the sixth count, with nearly a quarter being non-transferable. Most of the Renua votes transferring to Fine Gael went to Eoghan Murphy rather than Kate O’Connell.
Nearly three quarters of the joint Social Democrats/Solidarity-People Before Profit transfer went left, but the Labour transfer on the final count went two-to-one to Fine Gael over Sinn Féin.
THE CONSTITUENCY REDRAW
The Constituency Commission recommended that Harold’s Cross be moved from Dublin Bay South to Dublin South Central. This change will slightly disadvantage Sinn Féin, but would not have altered the result in any meaningful way.
