HISTORY
Dublin South-Central first came into existence at the time of the 1948 election – however until 1969 it covered the west and central areas of the inner city; Ballyfermot, Kilmainham and Crumlin were for the same time period in the then Dublin South-West constituency, a completely different constituency to the current one of the same name. In 1969 and 1973, Dublin South-Central was the name of a different constituency covering Kimmage, Rathfarnham, Terenure and part of Rathmines – quite similar to the current local electoral area of Kimmage-Rathmines. In 1977, Dublin South-Central reverted to its pre-1969 South Inner City origins and in 1981 the first iteration of the modern constituency emerged.
The Constituency between 1948 and 1969 was a strong one for Fianna Fáil – they won three out of five seats in 1951, 1957, 1961 and 1965. Sean Lemass was the poll-topper on all six occasions, though Maurice Dockrell of the Dockrell Fine Gael dynasty came close on one occasion.
Other interesting holders of office in this period include Phillp Brady (Fianna Fáil) who represented Dublin South-Central for a total of 23 years until his retirement at the age of 84 in 1977 and lived to the ripe old age of 102; James Larkin Junior, who was a Labour T.D. for nine years; Celia Lynch (Fianna Fáil), who represented the constituency for 23 years; Beret-wearing Jack Murphy, elected for the Unemployed Protest Committee in 1957; Thomas J. Fitzpatrick, elected in 1965, currently the oldest former Irish Parliamentarian at 98; Frank Cluskey, Labour Leader, elected in 1965.
In Dublin South-West (effectively the southern and western parts of the current Dublin South-Central), Leader of Clann na Poblachta Sean MacBride topped the poll in 1948 – he held a seat until 1957. Bob Briscoe of Fianna Fáil held a seat from 1948 until 1965, when he was replaced by his son Ben.
Michael Ffrench O’Carroll was a medical doctor originally in Clann Na Poblachta, but was elected as an Independent in 1951 – in 1953 he moved to Fianna Fáil with Noel Browne and unsuccessfully contested the 1954 and 1957 elections. He later became a pioneer of addiction care and founded Cuan Mhuire.
One of the more colourful characters of the constituency was Labour man Sean Dunne. A socialist and republican, he was interned for two years in the Curragh and Arbour Hill during the Emergency. He was elected a Labour TD on the 18th July 1969 for the constituency but died before he could take his seat.
Before the 1960s, Labour were not strong in the constituency, but in 1965 John O’Connell took a seat and in 1969 was joined (very briefly) by Sean Dunne – Labour’s four candidates took 44% of the vote and took two of the four seats, the other two being taken by Fianna Fáil.
1981 saw the first election to a Dublin South-Central on its roughly its current boundaries. In 1989, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael took two seats each, but the last seat was taken by Eric Byrne of the Workers Party. This was the last election that Fine Gael was to take two seats here. 1989 also saw the death of Labour leader Frank Cluskey who had represented the constituency up until that year. It was the last time Fine Gael won two seats.
1992 saw a week-long recount with only five votes seperating Ben Briscoe of Fianna Fáil and Eric Byrne (now of Democratic Left) – Briscoe eventually prevailed. Byrne regained his seat in 1994 in the bye-election occasioned by the death of John O’Connell , but lost it again in 1997. He finally regained in 2011 as a Labour TD only to lose it again in 2016. Incidentally 1997 saw Brid Smith’s first electoral outing where she garnered 218 votes.
Below is the Poll-topper map from the earliest Dublin South-Central tallies I have in 2007.
Note how Fianna Fáil topped the poll in the working-class areas of the South-West Inner City, Crumlin and Kimmage. To the south-east Mary Upton topped the poll in Terenure, now in Dublin Bay South.
Fianna Fáil held two seats at each election until 2011 and haven’t regained a seat yet, although they were very close in 2016. Labour took two in 2011 and lost both in 2016. Aengus O’Snodaigh of Sinn Féin first won a seat in 2002, but only held on by 69 votes from Eric Byrne in 2007.
OVERVIEW
A single DED – Kimmage C which contains Harold’s Cross – will be transferred to Dublin South-Central.
RECENT CONSTITUENCY RESULTS
For a constituency which for three decades had returned only Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the second decade of the 21st century was one of tumultuous change. In 2011, Cork South-West returned no Fianna Fáil TD for the first in the history of the constituency and its predecessor. It also returned the first Labour TD in thirty years. All three seats were won by Fine Gael and Labour candidates – in 2020 those parties took no seats.
The following table gives the result of every election in Dublin South-East and Dublin Bay South since 1997.
| YEAR | SEATS | Fianna Fáil | Fine Gael | Labour | Sinn Féin | Green | Left | Others | Inds. |
| 1997 | 4 | 34.4% 2 | 25.0% 1 | 10.4% 1 | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.0%** | 16.5%* | 2.8% |
| 1999 | 1*** | 30.1% | 20.1% | 28.0% 1 | 8.4% | 6.3% | 2.8%** | 2.5%* | 1.9% |
| 2002 | 4 | 34.3% 2 | 17.0% 1 | 19.7% 1 | 12.7% 1 | 5.2% | 3.3%** | 3.1%* | 4.7% |
| 2007 | 4 | 33.1% 2 | 14.4% 1 | 21.1% 1 | 10.2% 1 | 5.8% | 4.9%** | 2.2%* | 8.3% |
| 2011 | 4 | 9.5% | 23.4% 1 | 35.4% 2 | 13.4% 1 | 2.0% | 12.9% 1** | 0.5%* | 3.2% |
| 2016 | 4 | 12.7% | 14.3% 1 | 7.7% | 23.3% 1 | 3.3% | 24.7% 2 | 8.8%** | 5.4% |
| 2020 | 4 | 11.0% | 11.7% 1 | 4.8% | 39.3% 1 | 9.3% 1 | 17.5% 2 | 5.2%** | 1.1% |
NOTES:
* Votes for Others includes…. 1997 – Democratic Left 11.3% Progressive Democrat 5.0% Natural Law Party 0.2%, 1999 – Christian Solidarity Party 2.0% Natural Law Party 0.5%, 2002- Progressive Democrats 3.1%, 2007 – Progressive Democrats 1.9% Christian Solidarity 0.3%, 2011 – Christian Solidarity Party 0.5%, 2016 – Social Democrats 5.7%, Renua 2.1%, Direct Democracy 1.0%, 2020 – Social Democrats 3.7%, National Party 1.5%
** Votes for Left Parties includes…. 1997 – Socialist Party 0.8%, Workers Party 0.7% Socialist Workers Party 0.5%, 1999 – Workers Party 2.8%, 2002 Workers Party 1.9%, Socialist Workers Party 1.4%, 2007 – People Before Profit 4.4%, Workers Party 0.5%, 2011 – People Before Profit 12.9%, 2016 – Independents 4 Change 14.5% Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 10.2%, 2020 – Solidarity – People Before Profit 11.0% Independents 4 Change 6.5%
*** 1999 was a by-election owing to the death of Pat Upton (R.I.P.) of the Labour Party
THE 2020 ELECTION
The one seat change in 2020 was the Green’s Patrick Costello ousting Fine Gael veteran Catherine Byrne – however the turnaround in voting numbers was far more dramatic.
The Sinn Féin jumped by 16 points to 39% – just under two quotas. Unfortunately for Sinn Féin, they only had one candidate, incumbent TD Aengus O’Snodaigh. This was very fortunate indeed for Independents 4 Change TD Joan Collins who saw her vote fall by more than half and retained her seat purely due to the grace and favour of Sinn Féin transfers.
Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fáil missed out on election by a very narrow margin (25 votes) in 2016; this time she didn’t make it to the last count albeit again by a very narrow margin (180 votes). Her votes might have been expected to carry Catherine Byrne of Fine Gael above Joan Collins but they failed to transfer in sufficient numbers. Would Byrne’s transfers have carried Ardagh ahead of Collins if the roles had been reversed? Hard to say, though the gap would have likely been smaller.
Below you can see the top-polling candidates per area in the election – areas south of the White Line are going into Dublin South-West next time.
It is interesting to compare the above map with that from 2007. Where Fine Gael were poll-toppers in that year, the Greens seem to have topped the poll in 2020. Fine Gael did top the poll in Chapelizod and the narrow strip of the Phoenix Park Electoral Division that runs south of the River Liffey.
It’s worth having a look at a breakdown of the vote in the three Electoral Areas that make up Dublin Bay South – Ballyfermot-Drimnagh contains Walkinstown, Chapelizod and Inchicore as well as Ballyfermot and Drimnagh, South-West Inner City contains all of the Inner City to the west of Clanbrassil Street and north of the Grand Canal as well as Kilmainham and Islandbridge, the part of Kimmage-Rathmines in Dublin South-Central includes Crumlin and Kimmage, while the small part of the Rathfarnham-Templeogue Electoral Area (which lies in the South Dublin Council area)
| ELECTORAL AREA | F.F. | F.G. | S.F. | Grns | I4C | Sol.-P.B.P. | Others | Ind. | Votes% |
| Ballyfermot-Drimnagh | 9% | 8% | 50% | 5% | 6% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 42% |
| South-West Inner City | 9% | 14% | 31% | 15% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 1% | 24% |
| Kimmage-Rathmines (pt.) | 10% | 8% | 41% | 8% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 0% | 21% |
| Rathfarnham-Templeogue (pt.) | 24% | 25% | 14% | 14% | 4% | 6% | 13% | 0% | 12% |
In terms of elected candidate geographical placements, two (O’Snodaigh and Smith) were the Ballyfermot area, one (Costello) was from the South-West Inner City and finally Collins was from the Kimmage-Rathmines area – runner-up Catherine Byrne was from the South-West Inner City area,
Both the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates polled markedly better in the mainly middle-class Rathfarnham-Templeogue area which will be in Dublin South-West next time. South-West Inner City also has a sizeable middle-class population, but it is younger and less likely to be house-owning than the population of Rathfarnham-Templeogue and probably more predisposed to moderate centre-left candidates who took nearly 30% of the vote in that area.
Interestingly, in the 2024 Local Elections, the top three candidates on the first count were all from Centre-Left parties – the Green Party, Labour and Social Democrats.
Below are the support maps of the four candidates elected.
I’ve used the same scale for all candidates which is a bit of a challenge as O’Snodaigh got 39% and Collins only 6%. In O’Snodaigh’s case, he took two-thirds of the vote in Greater Ballyfermot (three-quarters in the center of the suburb) which can’t be properly represented here. (Brid Smith took a creditable 16%, followed by Catherine Ardagh on 5%). He also polled well in Crumlin and the South West Inner-City except the area adjoining the canal.
The Green vote reached over 20% in the area enclosed by Clanbrassil Street, the South Circular Road and the R110 and also in the Islandbridge/Kilmainham area.
The following map shows the Combined vote for the Centre-Left candidates – Green, Social Democrat and Green. They took just over 40% in the Warrenmount area near Clanbrassil street, and also in the area around the Irish Museum of Modern Art near Ushers’ Quay.
DEMOGRAPHICS
Below I’ve looked at the differing votes per area dependent on the percentage of Middle-Class households (those with an Employer, Managerial or Professional chief bread-winner) per District Electoral Division.
For the 2020 and 2021 results I have used the relevant 2016 census data, for the 1997 results I’ve used 2006 census data (which is the earliest I have). I didn’t use 2022 census data as for 2022 there was a restructuring of the definitions of socio-economic categories which makes it difficult to compare with data from previous censuses.
| AREA TYPE | F.F. | F.G. | S.F. | Grns | I4C | Sol.-P.B.P. | Others | Ind. | Votes% |
| < 33% Middle-Class | 9% | 9% | 46% | 7% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 7% | 76% |
| 33%-50% Middle-Class | 13% | 16% | 24% | 17% | 4% | 10% | 16% | 6% | 15% |
| > 50% Middle-Class | 20% | 27% | 13% | 18% | 1% | 7% | 15% | 5% | 10% |
A few things to note from the table above:
- Brid Smith (Solidarity – People Before Profit) polled much better relatively speaking than Joan Collins (Independents Before Change) in strongly middle-class areas. Why precisely that was I don’t know, though perhaps Brid Smith’s increased media profile could possibly be a factor.
- The “Civil War” parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) did worst in the least middle-class areas and best in the most middle-class areas. The Left-wing parties (Sinn Féin, Independents 4 Change, Solidarity-People Before Profit) did exactly the opposite. The Centre-Left parties (Greens, Labour, Social Democrats) did worst in the least middle-class areas, but polled equally well in the most middle-class areas as well as more socially mixed areas.
Below is a SapMap of Dublin South-Central showing the percentage of EMP (Employer, Managerial and Professional) Households per area – the areas in red are below average with darkest red below 5%, and those in blue above average with darkest blue above 35%. I’m using the 2022 Census data which has a more conservative definition of what breadwinner occupations lie within the definition of E.M.P. households.
Areas south of the red line are going into Dublin South-West – areas east of the green line are coming in from Dublin Bay South.
Just out of interest, I also had a look at the 2007 results (using the 2006 census)
| AREA TYPE | F.F. | F.G. | Labour | S.F. | Greens | S.W.P. | Others | Ind. | Proportion |
| < 33% Middle-Class | 33% | 12% | 20% | 13% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 10% | 70% |
| 33%-50% Middle-Class | 32% | 20% | 23% | 8% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 21% |
| > 50% Middle-Class | 36% | 20% | 21% | 2% | 7% | 0% | 6% | 7% | 9% |
As can be seen clearly, the voting patterns were not as aggressively class-based as they were in 2020. Fianna Fáil and Labour had cross-class voting profiles, Fine Gael did better outside working-class areas and, the Greens did best in the “middling” parts of the constituency.
TRANSFERS
Below are details of the main transfers during the 2020 count.
| CNT | PTY | F.F. | F.G. | Greens. | Sol.-P.B.P. | I.F.C. | Oth/Ind. | NT | Total |
| 2 | S.F. | 231 (3%) | 114 (1%) | 408 (5%) | 4,794 (57%) | 1,747 (21%) | 1,052 (13%) | 8.356 | |
| 3 | Sol.-P.B.P. | 17 (2%) | 10 (1%) | 73 (8%) | 498 (56%) | 290 (33%) | 888 | ||
| 5 | Lab./S.D. | 414 (9%) | 513 (11%) | 2,219 (48%) | 1,102 (24%) | 344 (7%) | 4,592 | ||
| 6 | F.F. | 1,647 (29%) | 1,665 (30%) | 1,153 (21%) | 1,133 (20%) | 5,598 |
*Oth/Ind. is mainly Labour and the Social Democrats.
On the second count, 78% of Sinn Féin transfers went to Brid Smith (Solidarity-People Before Profit) and Joan Collins (Independents 4 Change), and a further 12% went to the three centre-left parties. Clearly Sinn Féin voters heeded the party’s entreaty to “Vote Left”.
On the third count, 57% of Brid Smith’s surplus (which would have consisted entirely of Sinn Féin number ones) went to Joan Collins and a further 23% went to the centre-left parties.
Nearly half (48%) of the combined Labour/Social Democrat transfer went to Patrick Costello (Greens), leapfrogging him over Catherine Ardagh (Fianna Fáil), Catherine Byrne (Fine Gael) and Joan Collins.
Ardagh started off 296 votes behind Byrne – the Sinn Féin and People Before Profit surpluses narrowed that gap to 172, and then the elimination of the National Party and various Independents narrowed it further to 91. However, the joint Labour/Social Democrats transfer widened it again to 180, which resulted in Ardagh being eliminated.
Nearly three quarters of the joint Social Democrats/Solidarity-People Before Profit transfer went left, but the Labour transfer on the final count went two-to-one to Fine Gael over Sinn Féin.
The Fianna Fáil transfers broke fairly widely, with a surprising amount (21%) going to Joan Collins. A further 20% were non-transferable.
THE CONSTITUENCY REDRAW
The Constituency Commission recommended that Harold’s Cross be moved from Dublin Bay South to Dublin South Central and that the three DEDs in Rathfarnham-Templeogue be moved into Dublin South-West. On paper, this should help parties of the Left , particularly Sinn Féin.
| AREA | F.F. | F.G. | S.F. | Grns | I4C | Sol.-P.B.P. | Others | Ind. |
| Dublin SC 2020 | 11% | 11% | 39% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 1% |
| From Dublin BS | 11% | 16% | 29% | 19% | 4% | 17% | 4% | |
| To Dublin SW | 24% | 26% | 14% | 14% | 1% | 9% | 13% | 0% |
| Dublin SC 2024 | 9% | 10% | 42% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 1% |
The sum total of the changes in Dublin South-Central – would on a strict interpretation of the 2020 tallies – result in a 3 point gain for Sinn Féin and a 3 point loss collectively for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Which – on the 2020 patterns – would see a wider gap on the final count between the Green Party and Fine Gael.
However, two things should be considered :
- Transfer rates between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are likely to be significantly higher this time. Whether this would offset the disadvantage of the FG/FF losses due to the boundary changes is questionable.
- The Green Party had a pretty good local elections in Dublin South-Central. They topped the poll in South-West Inner City and – more surprisingly – held their seat in mainly working-class Ballyfermot-Drimnagh. Could that mean that their losses will be muted in Dublin South-Central?