CARLOW-KILKENNY (5 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 15/11/2024 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Outgoing Green TD MALCOLM NOONAN is 5/4, but I’m not bullish about his chances. He undoubtedly has a popular support base beyond the party – he was one of only three Green Party Councillors to survive the Green cull in the local elections of 2009 – but he only took the last seat in 2020 due to Sinn Féin’s failure to run a second candidate and did so by just over five hundred votes from the late Bobby Aylward due to strong transfers from People Before Profit’s Adrienne Wallace. He is not likely to attract left-wing votes to such an extent this time. The Sinn Féin vote will be down, but you would still favour either Kilkenny candidate NATASHA NEWSOME DRENNAN (7/4) or Carlow candidate AINE GLADNEY KNOX (5/2) being in the mix. The Social Democrats didn’t win any seats in the recent local elections, but their CANDIDATE Patricia Stephenson is priced at 7/4. Interestingly, veteran Fine Gael pol DAVID FITZGERALD from Kilkenny City is the blue favourite at 1/4. Malcolm Noonan’s 5/4 represents a 44% chance of winning, but if you combine the Sinn Féin candidates’ odds there’s a 46% chance of winning. Problem is which one? There is more population in Kilkenny, but Gladney Knox probably has the stronger base – her father holds a Council seat in Bagenalstown.
KILDARE SOUTH (3 seats – excluding Ceann Comhairle)
| DATE | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 15/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
The Betting shows MARTIN HEYDON of Fine Gael (1/16) and FIONA O’LOUGHLIN (1/14) shoehorned into seats. Independent CATHAL BERRY is next at 4/9, just ahead of MARK WALL of Labour at 4/6. Cllr CHRIS PENDER of the Social Democrats is at 10/1, Cllr Siona Ni Raghallaigh of SINN FEIN is at 7/1 and newly Independent TD PATRICIA RYAN is at 10/1.
First point I’d make is that Berry has been badly weakened by the loss of Portarlington and Ballybrittas into Laois and Offaly – that transfer reduces his vote by a third.
Second point I’d make is that it’d be a bit of a stretch for Kildare South to return two government TDs and a government supporting Independent TD. Not impossible, but unlikely. There is always an ABTG trend to transfers which really manifests itself in the final counts.
Thirdly I’d suggest that Chris Pender at 10/1 is a value price. He polled impressively in the local elections to take the third seat in Newbridge, and if he can stay ahead of O’Raghalaigh and Ryan, he can expect strong transfers from them. There was a leftwing seat last time, and there should be one this time.
Mark Wall will poll very strongly in his Athy fiefdom but Labour failed to get councillors elected in Kildare and Newbridge in June – he needs to be far enough ahead on the first count to stay ahead of the pack until the second last count.
LAOIS (3 seats)
| DATE | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 15/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Very little value to be had here with the SEAN FLEMING (FF), WILLIE AIRD (FG) and the newly Independent (after all that unpleasantness) BRIAN STANLEY all at an unbackable 1/8. Former Fine Gael Councillor AISLING MORAN (IND) is next best at 13/8.
LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (5 seats)
| DATE | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 15/11/2024 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
The Longford-Westmeath betting odds favour the return of the four sitting TDs – with PETER BURKE (FG) and ROBERT TROY (FF) both long odds-on, SORCA CLARKE (SF) at 2/9 and Longford’s JOE FLAHERTY (FF) at 4/11. Independent KEVIN MORAN took a huge vote in Athlone in June and is 1/8 to return to the Dáil. MICHAEL CARRIGY (FG) is at 4/6 and he will be going toe-to-toe with Flaherty for the Longford seat.
LOUTH (5 seats)
| DATE | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 15/11/2024 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
The prices reflect no change in the constituency make up, but perhaps some change in the personnel.
Drogheda-based reps Sinn Féin’s JOANNA BYRNE (1/20), Labour’s GED NASH (1/8) and Independent KEVIN CALLAN (1/4) and Dundalk-based Sinn Féin’s RUAIRI O’MURCHU (1/8) and Fine Gael’s JOHN McGAHON (1/4) are all favoured to win seats. Fianna Fáil’s Dundalk based ERIN McGREEHAN (7/4) and Drogheda-based ALISON COMYN (5/2) are next in the betting.
Sinn Féin’s third candidate ANTOIN WATTERS is at 9%, suggesting little confidence in the chance of a third seat.
LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4 seats)
| DATE | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 15/11/2024 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
The three sitting TDs in Meath East – HELEN McENTEE (FG), THOMAS BYRNE (FF) and DARREN O’ROURKE (SF) – are all long odds-on to be re-elected. The final seat – according to the books – is between GILLIAN TOOLE (IND) at 4/6 and SHARON TOLAN (FG) at 5/4.
I would favour Toole (who was formerly in Fine Gael) in that particular clash as she polled very impressively in the locals in the RATOATH and the heavily-populated south of the county has no Fine Gael candidate. Tolan also polled well in the locals in Bettystown but she is on the north-eastern edge of the constituency and her base overlaps with that of McEntee’s. I wouldn’t discount the chances of CAROLINE O’REILLY (FF) either who is a decent price at 9/2.
MEATH WEST (3 seats)
| DATE | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1* | |||||
| 15/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1* |
The Market in Meath West is less definite than elsewhere with PEADAR TOIBIN (Aontu) at 1/6 and JOHNNY GUIRKE (SF) at a relatively fat 1/3. LINDA MURRAY (FG) and AISLING DEMPSEY (FF) are practically tied at 8/15 and 4/7 respectively.
The big question here is ex-Fine Gael Cllr NOEL FRENCH (IND) will fare at 6/4. He nearly four thousand votes in the locals which would in normal circumstances would indicated a sure thing, but in 2019 he took three tousands votes in the locals as a Fine Gael candidate and flopped in the general election. Will the same happen this time? Hard to say. Both he and Aisling Dempsey are running from the Trim area. Johnny Guirke has a strong vote in the rural north of the constituency which should bolster him.
OFFALY (3 seats )
| DATE | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| 15/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
The seeming addition of an extra seat here is due to the fact that two of the five TDs elected in Laois-Offaly in 2020 were based in Offaly.
Tullamore Councillor TONY McCORMACK (FF) – who replaces BARRY COWEN – and CAROL NOLAN (IND) are both long odds on to be elected. JOHN CLENDENNEN (FG) is next in the odds at 8/13 but he will be fishing out of the same pool of votes as Nolan in the west of the county and she is likely to have a bigger net.
The Final candidate is more likely to come from the east of the county with EDDIE FITZPATRICK (IND) and CLAIRE MURRAY (FF) best priced at 11/8 and 2/1 respectively.
WEXFORD (4 seats)
| DATE | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 15/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
It’s a crowded field in Wexford – not least because they effectively lose a seat – with JAMES BROWNE TD (FF) at long odds, in June at 1/4 and Independent VERONA MURPHY at a curiously fat 4/11 given that she managed to get five supportive councillors elected in June.
According to the betting the competition for the last seat is between CLLR CATHAL BYRNE (FG) who topped the poll in Enniscorthy and CLLR GEORGE LAWLOR (LAB) who topped the poll in Wexford. They are 1/2 and 8/13 respectively.
A dark horse might be CLLR JIM CODD (AONTU) who trebled his vote to top the poll in the Rosslare area. His price is 5/1. CLLR MICHAEL SHEEHAN (IND, ex-FF) cannot be completely discounted in the New Ross area at 8/1.
WICKLOW (4 seats)
| DATE | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1* | |||
| 15/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1* |
Three seats here are long odds-on – SIMON HARRIS TD (FG), JOHN BRADY TD (SF) and JENNIFER WHITMORE TD (SD). The bookies price the fourth seat as a close contest between STEPHEN DONNELLY TD (FF) and CLLR EDWARD TIMMINS (FG), priced at 4/7 and 11/8 respectively.
The problem for Timmins is that the lower part of his Baltinglass Electoral Area is gone into Wicklow-Wexford, which leaves less than 20% of the Wicklow constituency population west of the mountains. He will have to hope that Simon Harris runs up a big surplus which will then cross the peaks to bring him over the line.
In an election where Independents are set to fare well, SHAY CULLEN (6/1) and CLLR JOE BEHAN (8/1) should not be discounted.
WICKLOW-WEXFORD (3 SEATS)
| DATE | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | ||||||||
| 15/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
This is is a small constituency but the betting is still tricky enough. Unusually, there were no TDs elected from this area (North Wexford and South Wicklow in 2020 – it’s virgin territory.
The top three in the market BRIAN BRENNAN (FG), SEN MALCOLM BYRNE (FF) and CLLR FIONTAINN O’SUILLEABHAN (SF) – priced at 1/4, 1/3, and 2/5 respectively – are all based in Gorey Town. Three is definitely a crowd.
You would have to favour one of the Arklow candidates CLLR PEIR LEONARD (IND) or CLLR PAT KENNEDY (FF) – priced at 8/11 and 2/1 respectively – to take a seat.
LEINSTER (48 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| 15/11/2024 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |