So far there are odds available for 8 of the 12 Dublin Constituencies on Boyle Sports.

The eight constituencies for which prices are available contain thirty seats. On the prices :

• INDEPENDENTS gain four seats
• LABOUR gain a seat
• FIANNA FAIL gain two seats
• SINN FEIN lose a seat
• GREENS lose three or four seats.
• FINE GAEL may lose a seat.

DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5 seats)

TIME	FF	FG	SF	GP	LAB	LEFT	OTHERS	IND
GE 2020	1	1	1		1		1*
15/11/2024	1	1	1				1*	1**

Both CIAN O’CALLAGHAN TD (Social Democrats) and Cllr NAOISE O’MUIRI (Fine Gael) are long odds-on to be re-elected. DENISE MITCHELL is 1/4, a surprisingly fat price given the fact that she got nearly two quotas last time – a reflection of Sinn Féin’s poor polling in Dublin recently perhaps. Cllr BARRY HENEGHAN, a protegé of former Minister Finian McGrath is at 1/2, and will be boosted by strong Independents support seen in opinion polls.

The Fianna Fáil candidates, Cllr DEIRDRE HENEY (Clontarf) and CLLR TOM BRABAZON (Donaghmede) are priced at 8/15 and 1/1 – both were elected on the first count in their respective electoral areas. Left-wing Independent JOHN LYONS – who got to the 2nd last count in 2016 – is priced at 2/1.

Cllr AOIBHINN TORMEY of Fine Gael can’t be excluded from consideration at 4/1.

DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4 seats)

TIME	FF	FG	SF	GP	LAB	LEFT	OTHERS	IND
GE 2020	1	1*	1	1
15/11/2024	1	1			1			1**

Two candidates – JAMES GEOGHEGAN (Fine Gael) and IVANA BACIK (Labour) – are assured election on their odds. However there is a very tight market for the last two seats with KATE O’CONNELL (Ind), JIM O’CALLAGHAN (Fianna Fáil), CHRIS ANDREWS (Sinn Féin) and HAZEL CHU (Greens) all trading at between 1/2 and 5/4.

Personally, I;m not completely convinced that the good burghers of Dublin Bay South, having issued Kate O’Connell her marching orders in 2020, are now full of contrition for their ingratitude and prepared to welcome her back under another flag.

The dark horse here might well be EMMA BLAIN of Fine Gael – the party had an impressive locals in middle-class Dublin, and their polling numbers in the city are good.

DUBLIN CENTRAL (4 seats)

TIME	FF	FG	SF	GP	LAB	LEFT	OTHERS	IND
GE 2020		1	1	1			1*
15/11/2024		1	1				1*	1**

Both MARY LOU McDONALD (SF) and PASCHAL DONOHUE (FG) are long odds-on. GARY GANNON (SD) is also favoured by the odds (1/4) to hold his seat.

There is then a four-way battle – according to the odds – between CLARE DAY (Independent), GERRY HUTCH (Independent), NEASA HOURIGAN (Greens) and MALACHY STEENSON (Independent). They are all between 5/4 and 15/8.

I’ve really no idea how to call this. My feeling is that Clare Daly is not the electoral force she once was as she seems to have alienated elements of her left-wing support base. Neasa Hourigan I would not discount given the healthy vote the Greens got in the recent local elections in Dublin Central but left-wing transfers will be harder to come by this time. Malachy Steenson might get a decent first preference vote but is not likely to attract many transfers.

The one observation I’d make is that Mary FitzPatrick of Fianna Fáil seems over-priced at 8/1. She should be there or thereabouts.

DUBLIN FINGAL EAST (3 seats)

TIME	FF	FG	SF	GP	LAB	LEFT	OTHERS	IND
GE 2020*	1	1			1
15/11/2024	1	1			1

Fianna Fáil’s DARRAGH O’BRIEN and ALAN FARRELL of Fine Gael are both long odds on to be returned. According to the odds, the last seat is between two Swords-based candidates – sitting TD DUNCAN SMITH (Labour) and Cllr DEAN MULLIGAN (Independents For Change) priced at 4/9 and 8/13 respectively. Mulligan topped the poll in Swords in the recent local elections.

DUBLIN FINGAL WEST (3 seats)

TIME	FF	FG	SF	GP	LAB	LEFT	OTHERS	IND
GE 2020*			1	1
15/11/2024	1		1		1

LOUISE O’REILLY (SF) is 1/14 to be returned, and while she is likely to be returned, her chance may not be as certain as those odds suggest. Labour’s ROBERT O’DONOGHUE is 1/4, a reflection of their impressive local election performance in June – O’Donoghue himself took one and a half quotas in Rush-Lusk.

The final seat is – according to the odds – likely to be between Portrane-based Senator LORRAINE CLIFFORD-LEE of Fianna Fáil (8/11), Skerries-based GRACE BOLAND of Fine Gael (Evens) and Balbriggan-based Independent Councillor TONY MURRAY (5/4). Outgoing Skerries-based Green TD JOE O’BRIEN is at 7/2.

Clifford-Lee’s cause may be hampered by Fianna Fáil returning no councillors in the two Fingal West areas in the local elections; Boland is a daughter of former Fine Gael minister John Boland, and Murray topped the poll in Balbriggan in June. O’Brien has a strong personal vote in Skerries, but in 2020 he relied on a coalition of support amongst the affluent communities along the coast which was skewered by the Constituency Commission.

The current strong support for Independents might aid Murray

DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3 seats)

TIME	FF	FG	SF	GP	LAB	LEFT	OTHERS	IND
GE 2020*	1		1				1*
15/11/2024	1		1				1*

DESSIE ELLIS (SF) is 1/6 to be returned – Sinn Féin are likely to be pressed from several sides this time round – not least by anti-immigration campaigner Cllr GAVIN PEPPER (5/2) – but with 45% in 2020 he has a big cushion.

PAUL McAULIFFE TD (FF) is at 1/2, ahead of a three-way fight – according to the prices – for the last seat between Housing activist RORY HEARNE (Social Democrats), Cllr CONOR REDDY (People Before Profit) and former TD NOEL ROCK (Fine Gael).

DUBLIN RATHDOWN (4 seats)

TIME	FF	FG	SF	GP	LAB	LEFT	OTHERS	IND
GE 2020		2		1
15/11/2024	1	1		1				1*

NEALE RICHMOND TD (FG) is an unbackable 1/100 to be re-elected, followed by Cllr SHAY BRENNAN (FF) at 1/10. I’m slightly puzzled about Brennan being as skinny as 1/10 – he narrowly missed election last time and the addition of the extra seat means that he should now take a seat, but not at so short a price.

CATHERINE MARTIN TD (GP) is at 1/4, and given the fall in the Green Party’s fortunes will also be appreciative of the extra seat. The fourth seat – according to the prices will go to Independent Cllr MICHAEL FLEMING who took nearly four thousand votes in Glencullen-Sandyford in the local elections.

The Dark(ish) Horse could well be Stillorgan-based Fine Gael Councillor MAEVE O’CONNELL at 8/11 – Fine Gael polled very respectably in the middle-class heartlands of South Dublin in June. In fact they took 53% in Stillorgan.

DUN LAOGHAIRE (4 seats)

TIME	FF	FG	SF	GP	LAB	LEFT	OTHERS	IND
GE 2020*	1	1		1		1
15/11/2024	1	1.5*		0.5*		1

Both JENNIFER CARROLL-McNEILL TD (FG) and RICHARD BOYD-BARRETT TD (PBP) are unbackable at 1/100 and 1/33 respectively. CORMAC DEVLIN TD (FF) is 1/5.

The real battle – according to the odds – is between Senator BARRY WARD (FG) and OSSIAN SMYTH (GP) at 2/5 apiece.

DUBLIN (49 seats)

TIME	FF	FG	SF	GP	LAB	LEFT	OTHERS	IND
GE 2020*	5	7	5	5	2	1	3*
15/11/2024	7	6.5	4	1.5	3	1	3*	4