I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
METHODOLOGY : The Country total and regional figures for each party/group are calculated using a time-weighted average from the last five poll. The Country Total is adjusted to ensure it is in line with the regional figures (some polls don’t issue regional data). The proportion each party loses (if anything) per region is then calculated. For instance if a party was at 18% and is now at 12%, it loses a third of its vote – if its vote was 24% in a constituency it falls to 16%, if it was 15% to 10% etc. Next it is determined what votes the gaining parties will receive – for instance Fianna Fáil votes might be (proportionately) more likely to go to Fine Gael than Sinn Féin etc. A simulation of a count in each constituency is processed – this uses transfer data from the 2020 General Election, and in 16 constituencies uses transfer data particular to that constituency (if we are looking at transfers based on 2020 transfer rates).
Also – in 2021 Sinn Féin received well over a quota worth of votes in many constituencies due to their only running one candidate (in Louth, Cavan-Monaghan and Donegal, they received well over two quotas with two candidates). In these constituencies, I’ve added a “dummy” 2nd SF candidate who takes one-third of the Sinn Fein vote.
It should be noted that these are merely the outcomes if regional swings were replicated in constituencies in that region. No attempt is made to factor in individual circumstances in each constutuency.
DUBLIN : The Count simulator forecasts that the Fianna Fáil vote would remain stable – but they would still be at risk of losing seats in Dublin North-West (where Sinn Féin missed out on taking a second seat by only running one candidate) and Dublin Bay North. Several of the seats they retain could also be marginal – only in Dublin Fingal would a FF TD be elected before the last count. More positively, their two putative losses are only by narrow margins.
Sinn Fein would gain eight seats – this is partly due to their undernomination of candidates where they could probably have taken a further five seats. The Fine Gael vote is actually up 2% in Dublin, with 1 gain in Dublin South-Central. This has been a consistent trend for much of the present Dail with the Fine Gael vote holding up better in Dublin than elsewhere. The Greens would lose half their seats, though it could be more as current analysis is based upon 2020 transfer patterns. The six others consist of three Social Democrat TDs and three Solidarity-People Before Profit TDs.
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LEINSTER : The Count simulator forecasts that Sinn Féin would win five extra seats in Leinster – in Carlow-Kilkenny and Wicklow (from the Greens) and Laois-Offaly, Louth and Wexford (from Independents).
Geography could play to Sinn Féin’s hand in Wicklow where most unusually all five TDs are based in the urban north-east catchment area of Bray and Greystones – a Sinn Féin candidate in South or West Wicklow could capitalise. Fianna Fáil are actually forecast to make a gain – in Meath West at Fine Gael’s expense. The Greens appear very vulnerable in both Wicklow and particularly Carlow-Kilkenny where they only took a seat due to Sinn Féin not running a second candidate in 2020. The 3 others are two Social Democrat TDs and one Aontu TD.
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MUNSTER : Opinion Polls have been suggesting a substantial rise in Sinn Féin support in Munster and accordingly the Count Simulator awards them seven gains. Fine Gael suffer a loss of a quarter of their vote but actually make a gain in Tipperary (as well as one loss in Cork North-Central)
The small parties all suffer with Labour losing both their seats and a similar fate befalling the Greens. The Social Democrats would lose out to Sinn Fein also in Cork South-West, and Solidarity-People Before Profit would lose in Cork. It should be noted however – and this applies particularly to the two Labour seats – that seats particularly dependent on support in a defined rural area of a constituency are more impervious to national and regional trend. A gain for an Independent is forecast in Cork North-Central, while a loss is forecast in Cork North-Central.
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| 1 | 2 | 1 | SF,IND | FG,S-P | |||||
| 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | SF | FF | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | SF | SD | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||
| 1 | 1 | 2 | SF | GP | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | SF | IND | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | FG | LAB | ||||
| 1 | 2 | 1 | SF | GP |
CONNAUGHT-ULSTER : There is significant change forecast in Connaught-Ulster with Sinn Féin going up 12% and gaining four seats. They would take three out of five seats each in Donegal and Cavan-Monaghan.
The Independent vote drops by 3 points here in this analysis and this leads to losses in Donegal, Galway West and Galway-Roscommon; in the last constituency Fine Gael make the gain, but lose their seat in neighbouring Sligo-Leitrim. Fianna Fail lose two seats, both of which were closely run affairs last time. The Social Democrats are forecast to take a seat in Galway West – they may well be dependent on transfers from the Greens.
| 1 | 1 | 3 | SF | FF | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 3 | SF | IND | |||||
| 1 | 1 | SF | FF | ||||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | SD | IND | |||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | FG | IND | |||||
| 1 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 2 | 1 | SF | FG |
GOVERNMENT FORMATION
Neither the Government parties (72 seats) nor the Opposition Parties put together (75 seats) would reach the magic figure of 81 needed to secure a majority. The simplest (in terms of numbers of parties involved) would be Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil (96 seats) or Sinn Féin and Fine Gael (also 96 seats). Barring that, the only other possible configuration that doesn’t have to rely on Independent support is a five party coalition of Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, the Greens, the Social Democrats and Labour which would command 81 seats.
DEMOGRAPHICS
There are significant differences between the demographic make-up of the Government Bloc of parties and those of the Opposition Bloc – but also between parties within those respective blocs.
| DEMOGRAPHIC | F.F. | F.G. | GRN | GOV | S.F. | LAB | OTH | OPP | Inds |
| Overall | 20 | 20 | 4 | 44 | 34 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 11 |
| CLASS | |||||||||
| Middle-Class | 20 | 23 | 7 | 50 | 27 | 4 | 9 | 41 | 10 |
| Working-Class | 18 | 14 | 3 | 36 | 42 | 3 | 7 | 53 | 12 |
| Farmers | 41 | 36 | 0 | 77 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 9 |
| AGE | |||||||||
| 18-34 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 36 | 41 | 4 | 15 | 61 | 4 |
| 35-54 | 16 | 21 | 4 | 41 | 38 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 12 |
| 55+ | 27 | 22 | 3 | 53 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 13 |
| LOCATION | |||||||||
| Urban | 17 | 21 | 6 | 43 | 34 | 5 | 8 | 47 | 9 |
| Rural | 26 | 18 | 3 | 47 | 33 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 13 |
Starting with Social Class – the Government is significantly more popular with middle-class voters (50%) as opposed to Working-Class voters (36%); this is due to both Fine Gael and the Greens’ support being disproportionately middle-class. On the opposition side 53% of Working-Class voters favour those parties, compared to 41% of middle-class voters. This difference is totally down to the social profile of Sinn Fein’s vote which is disproportionately working-class.
Finally, the parties of the opposition bloc seem to hold little appeal for the farmers of Ireland, with over three-quarters supporting the Government parties (except the Greens not surprisingly).
It is interesting to note that Independents attract only 9% support amongst Farmers as compared to 13% in the wider rural electorate, suggesting their vote may be concentrated amongst the non-farming portion of the rural electorate.
The Opposition Bloc fares much better than the Government amongst younger voters with a strong showing of 41% support for Sinn Féin and also accentuated support (15%) for the smaller parties. The Greens also enjoy heightened support amongst young people. The opposite is true of Independents who only draw 4% support from this cohort.
Sinn Féin are nearly as popular amongst middle-aged voters (38%) as they are amongst younger ones; the opposite is true of Fianna Fáil who are nearly as unpopular with middle-aged voters as they are with younger ones. By contrast, Fine Gael’s position with middle-aged voters is significantly better than with younger ones.
Finally, Fianna Fáil actually lead amongst older voters – albeit by one point – from Sinn Féin. Overall, the Government enjoys majority support amongst older voters.
In terms of location, Fianna Fáil do significantly better with rural voters, while Labour (who historically had a significant rural vote), the Greens and the smaller parties all do better in Rural Areas.