In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.

Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.

However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.

Accordingly, I have decided to ensure that my constituency examples below (examples – not proposals) would be within the permitted 5% variation from the National average of Population per TD for both 178 and 180 seat models.

Just to reiterate that these are examples of what the Electoral Commission MIGHT do, rather than what they WILL do – or indeed, what I think they SHOULD do.

VARIANCE

The below table shows the population limits (positive or negative) that for constituencies to be valid. Each constituency has to have a Population per TD ratio within 5% of the National Average.

TABLE 1 – PERMITTED VARIATIONS IN POPULATION FOR CONSTITUENCIES

MAGNITUDE	178		180
	Minimum	Maximum	Minimum	Maximum
3 seats	82,034	90,669	81,123	89,662
4 seats	109,379	120,892	108,164	119,549
5 seats	136,724	151,116	135,204	149,436

TERMS OF REFERENCE

The Terms of Reference for the Electoral Commission are as follows.

1. the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181^*;
2. each constituency shall return 3, 4 or 5 members;
3. the breaching of county boundaries shall be avoided as far as practicable.
4. the reference to county boundaries shall be deemed not to include a reference to the boundary of a city or any boundary between any 2 of the counties of Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, Fingal and South Dublin.
5. each constituency shall be composed of contiguous areas;
6. there shall be regard to geographic considerations including significant physical features and the extent of and the density of population in each constituency; and
7. subject to the above matters, the Commission shall endeavour to maintain continuity in relation to the arrangement of constituencies.

The two important terms for me are Numbers 3 and 7, as logically interpreted it means that the integrity of county boundaries is prioritised over the continuity of current Constituency boundaries – including presumably those where county boundaries are breached.

As regards Number 2, I think it’s regrettable that larger constituencies are not permitted – besides allowing for a better share of representation, there is a reasonable case for their use in larger counties (ie Galway) or indeed in large cities (ie Dublin and Cork)

MUNSTER

I’m going to examine the Dublin constituencies in two distinct groups :

• East Munster (Tipperary and Waterford)
• West Munster (Clare, Kerry and Limerick)

EAST MUNSTER

Firstly, the reasoning behind choosing to group these five counties.

For a start, Tipperary and Waterford share a fairly long border and have 10.24 seats worth of population in a 178 seat Dáil between them. Tipperary has just about enough for 6 seats (5.82 swp; 3% below the national average of population per TD) but Waterford at 4.42 swp is over 10% above the national average and therefore well outside the permitted variation. A transfer of up to 10,000 population from adjacent parts of Waterford can be absorbed by Tipperary to allow two three-seaters in the latter county.

Below are the statistics for constituencies in East Munster

TABLE 2 –  POPULATION BY CONSTITUENCY

CONSTITUENCY	POPULATION	178 SEATS	180 SEATS
Limerick City (pt.)	4.674	0.16	0.16
Tipperary	162,987	5.66	5.73
Waterford	127,085	4.42	4.46

A small part of the Limerick City constituency takes in Newport in Tipperary and surrounding areas.

As noted above, Waterford needs to cede population to remain a four-seater; this can be effected by moving much of Lismore Electoral area into Tipperary (population 8.649)

Another possibility is taking in Clonmel (which lies on the border with Waterford) and adjacent areas which would allow both Waterford and Tipperary to be five-seaters. It’s an option I might look at later.

WATERFORD (4 seats)

The Constituency of Waterford would consist of the whole county bar the northern part of the Lismore Electoral area.

TABLE 3 -WATERFORD CONSTITUENCY DEDS

County	DISTRICT ELECTORAL DIVISIONS	POPULATION
Waterford	ALL DEDs in Dungarvan, Portlaw-Kilmacthomas, Waterford City East, Waterford City South, Waterford City West and Kilcockan, Kilwatermoy East, Kilwatermoy West, Tallow and Templemichael DEDs in Lismore

Waterford has been a stand-alone constituency since 1923 – in 1922 it was part of Waterford-Tipperary East where Labour won two of the five seats. By June 1927 they had lost both and didn’t win a seat again until 1948 when Tom Kyne first won a seat.

William Redmond, son of John Redmond, won a seat as an Independent in 1923 and later formed the National League and was returned under that banner in both 1927 elections. He was elected in 1932 for Cumann na nGaedhal but died the following year. He was succeeded by his widow Bridget Redmond, who was later joined as a Fine Gael TD by Nicholas Wall who himself was originally a TD for the National Centre party.

Despite polling over half the vote in several elections when the constiuency was a four seater, Fianna Fáil didn’t win a majority of the seats until 1969 when they took 2 of the 3 seats.

Paddy Gallagher of Sinn Féin The Workers’ Party took nearly 10% of the vote in 1977, and finally took a seat in February 1982 before losing it in the November election. His erstwhile colleague John Halligan took a seat as an Independent in 2011.

MAP 1 – PROPOSED WATERFORD CONSTITUENCY

Sinn Féin dominated the city and the east of the city, with Fine Gael topping the poll in and around Dungaravan.

Interestingly, Sinn Féin also topped the poll in the Gaeltacht.

TABLE 4 – PARTY SUPPORT BY LEA

	SF	FG	FF	GP	LAB	OTH	IND	%
Wat. City West	44%	11%	14%	13%	2%	5%	11%	21%
Wat. City East	33%	15%	17%	9%	3%	4%	20%	20%
Wat. City South	64%	9%	11%	3%	2%	5%	6%	20%
Dungarvan	29%	30%	19%	6%	8%	4%	4%	19%
P’law-K’thomas	33%	17%	25%	6%	3%	4%	13%	18%
Lismore (pt.)	15%	13%	22%	2%	44%	3%	1%	2%
TOTAL	40%	16%	17%	8%	4%	4%	11%

Sinn Féin polled best in the city taking just under half of the vote and nearly two-thirds in Waterford City South.

The Greens by contrast only took over 10% in one electoral area. Labour’s candidate polled very well in his own area around Tallow but failed to make a breakthrough further afield.

 

TIPPERARY

Coming soon….