This Poll Average was calculated by doing a time-rated average of the last five Irish Opinion Polls (with adjustments for each polling compant based on their historical deviation from the overall average of polls). Regional sub-data for Dublin and the provinces is also used to account for Regional Swings.

The main points of this Poll Average are :

• The Government Parties (Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Greens) would take 85 seats – 43 for Fine Gael, 41 for Fianna Fáil and 1 for the Greens.
• The Opposition Parties (Sinn Féin, Labour, Social Democrats, Solidarity-People Before Profit, Aontu) would take 50 seats – 35 for Sinn Féin, 2 for Labour and 13 for the other three parties.

Bear in mind that there 14 extra seats in the new Dáil.

Continue reading The Poll Average on 1st November 2024 →

All Candidate Lists are on Adrian Kavanagh’s excellent blog at : Candidates for the 2024 General Election by Dáil constituency | Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses

CARLOW-KILKENNY

Carlow-Kilkenny is a five seat constituency. It has existed since the creation of the state except for 12 years between 1937 and 1948. There is a strong Labour tradition here, and Seamus Pattison held a seat for over a quarter of a century. More recently it has become one of Fianna Fáil’s strongest constituencies with the party taking three of the four contested seats in 2002, and being within shooting distance of three out of five in both 2016 and 2020.

The main candidates are : John McGuinness TD (Fianna Fáil), , Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor TD (Fianna Fáil), Malcolm Noonan TD (Green Party). Kilkenny-based City Councillor David FitzGerald (Fine Gael) who was runner-up in the 2015 bye-election, and also contested the 2016 General Election; South Kilkenny-based Councillor Michael Doyle (Fine Gael); South Kilkenny-based Councillor P.J.Cleere (Fianna Fáil), who topped the poll in the Callan-Thomastown Electoral Area (the strongest Fianna Fáil Electoral Area in the country in that election) and Councillor Sean O’hAirgain (Labour), Natasha Newsome Drennan (Sinn Féin), Aine Gladney Knox (Sinn Féin) and Catherine Callaghan (Fine Gael).

In the 2023 Constituency Boundary review, part of rural north-west Kilkenny is to become part of the newly resurrected Tipperary North. Roughly three thousand votes were cast in this area in 2020, nearly a thousand of them for John McGuinness.

Of the five current TDs, Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor is the only one based in Carlow, while both Kathleen Funchion and John-Paul Phelan have both signalled their intention to stand down.

At the last election, one TD was elected in Carlow (Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor – Fianna Fáil), one in Kilkenny City/North Kilkenny (John McGuinness – Fianna Fáil) and one in South Kilkenny (John Paul Phelan – Fine Gael). The remaining two had more distributed vote bases – Kathleen Funchion (Sinn Féin) took votes all over the constituency – she took over half the vote in Ferrybank (the part of Waterford inside the Kilkenny border) and nearly 40% in Tullow in East Carlow, while Malcolm Noonan of the Green Party – besides a good personal vote in Kilkenny City – polled a steady vote across the constituency.  It should be noted that Bobby Aylward (R.I.P.) of Fianna Fáil was a close runner-up – his vote was South Kilkenny based.

A few considerations :

Firstly – It is unlikely there will be two Carlow TDs elected. Pat Deering of Fine Gael didn’t even make it to the final count in 2020. The last time two TDs were elected from Carlow was in 2007 when both M.J.Nolan (Fianna Fáil) and Mary White (Greens) were elected – however, that time roughly half of White’s vote came from Kilkenny. This time Catherine Callaghan is running for Fine Gael from the Tullow side of the county –  the fact that she failed (albeit narrowly) to be elected to the County Council in the summer limits her chances.  

Secondly – The Green seat is precarious. Malcolm Noonan only took the final seat by several hundred votes ahead of the late Bobby Aylward TD – and he only got over the line due to a Solidarity-People Before Profit transfer (just under half of which were Sinn Féin number ones). If Sinn Féin had run a second candidate, it is unlikely he would have made it to the last count. Unusually for the Green Party, he does have a decent personal vote – he was one of three councillors to survive their electoral rout in 2009 – but that may not be sufficient to save his seat this time given the strong headwind against the party.

Thirdly – How far will the Sinn Féin vote drop? At the moment, the Sinn Féin in Leinster vote is several points down on their vote in 2020. On this basis, the Sinn Féin seat is probably safe although a second seat is unlikely. However, it should be noted that neither of their candidates managed to get elected in the Local Elections – in Aine Gladney Knox’s case there is a plausible excuse in that she ran in the same Electoral Area as her father who did take a Council seat for Sinn Féin, but Natasha Drennan failed to take a seat in Piltown which contains the northern Waterford City suburbs in Ferrybank which voted strongly (50%+) for the party in 2020

Fourthly – South Kilkenny. In 2020, Bobby Aylward (R.I.P.) was 558 votes behind Malcolm Noonan on the final count. John Paul Phelan is stepping down this time for health reasons. This time Peter Cleere (Fianna Fáil) and Michael Doyle (Fine Gael) are replacing Bobby and John-Paul Phelan respectively. One of them will certainly take a seat and quite possibly both.

Overall, there is two definite seats for Fianna Fáil and one for Fine Gael. Fine Gael’s best chance of taking a second seat are with their Carlow candidate, but she is hampered by missing election (very narrowly) to the County Council, and a sub-optimal geographical location. The Green seat was won last time only because Sinn Féin failed to run a second seat and it is hard to see a path to retaining a seat. If I was to take a punt I’d guess that the certainties are two for Fianna Fáil, one for Fine Gael, a likely seat for Sinn Féin, and the last seat likely contested between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

CAVAN-MONAGHAN

Main Candidates : Matt Carthy TD (SF), Pauline Tully TD (SF), Niamh Smyth TD (FF), Brendan Smith TD (FF), Robbie Gallagher SEN (FF), David Maxwell CLLR (FG), Cathy Bennett CLLR (SF), Sarah O’Reilly CLLR (Aon), Shane P O Reilly CLLR (II)

Cavan-Monaghan has existed since 1977, merging the previous Cavan and Monaghan constituencies which had existed since the creation of the state. There are sizeable Protestant populations in both counties, and both county constituencies elected Protestant Independent TDs to the Dail and both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael had Protestant TDs representing the counties over the years.   

In both 2016 and 2020, Fine Gael out-polled Fianna Fáil but only took one seat to Fianna Fáil’s two. Much of the reason was the domination of the Fine Gael vote by HEATHER HUMPHREYS – not just in Monaghan but into Cavan too.

The table below shows the tally for the five TDs (and runner-up T.P.O’Reilly of Fine Gael) in Cavan and Monaghan.

COUNTY	Carthy	Humphreys	Tully	Smith	Smyth	O’Reilly
Cavan	3,194 (9%)	3,567 (10%)	8,211 (23%)	6,597 (18%)	4,115 (11%)	4,420 (12%)
Monaghan	12,814 (39%)	8,667 (28%)	1,230 (4%)	318 (1%)	1,230 (4%)	221 (1%)

Humphreys took nearly one-third of her vote from Cavan leading to her outpolling her closest running-mate T.P.O’Reilly by well over two to 1. In fact she was less than a thousand votes behind O’Reilly in Cavan. The reasons Humphreys took so many personal votes in Cavan are two-fold – firstly, she secured a big personal vote in and around Cootehill  where she worked for many years and secondly, she polled very well in rural areas with significant Protestant Populations.

MATT CARTHY dominated the north and south of Monaghan – in the 2000s, Sinn Féin were dominant in North Monaghan, Fine Gael in Central Monaghan and Fianna Fáil in South Monaghan. However over the last twenty years, the Sinn Féin has grown steeply in South Monaghan. This time Councillor CATHY BENNETT from the party’s northern Monaghan heartland is joining Carthy on the ticket.

BRENDAN SMITH’s vote is highest in rural west Cavan and also strong in Cavan town and surrounding areas. NIAMH SMYTH’s vote is mainly east Cavan-based (centered on Bailieborough), but she did take one-fifth of her vote over the border is South Monaghan. In 2020, She fought off a strong challenge from her former Personal Assistant (and local Fianna Fáil councillor) Sarah O’Reilly who defected to Aontu and took just under four thousand votes. This time O’Reilly is back again and another former Fianna Fáil councillor Shane P O’Reilly (Independent Ireland) from nearby Mullagh is joining the fray. There is likely to be a strong transfer between the two O’Reillys from whichever gets eliminated first.

DAVID MAXWELL is a co-religionist of Heather Humphreys and presumably will be hopeful of benefitting from Protestant votes in Cavan. The two Cavan Fine Gael candidates are both based in the east of the county – CARMEL BRADY in Cootehill, and T.P.O’REILLY in Virginia.

Overall East Cavan is looking quite crowded with five competitive candidates and PAULINE TULLY not far away in Kilnaleck.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Others	Ind	Proportion
Cavan	30% – 2 TDs	25%	31% – 1 TD	13%	0%	54%
Monaghan	19%	29% – 1 TD	43% – 1 TD	9%	0%	46%
Total	25.2% – 2 TDs	26.6% – 1 TD	36.7% – 2 TDs	11.4%	0.4%

Overall, there is one definite seat for  each of the three main parties. You would feel that Sinn Féin should hold their two seats but if their poll ratings don’t improve their Cavan seat might not be certain. Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael (with two candidates), Aontu and Independent Ireland are all in the hunt for one certain seat in East Cavan.

CORK EAST

Main Candidates : Pat Buckley TD (SF), Mehdi Özçınar (SF), James O’Connor TD (FF), CLLR Deirdre O’Brien (FF), CLLR Noel McCarthy (FG), Mark Stanton (FG), CLLR Mary Linehan Foley (Ind), CLLR William O’Leary (Ind), CLLR Liam Quaide (SD)

Cork East is a four seat constituency which has existed in its current form since 1981. Previously the area was represented by previous iterations of Cork East, as well as the constituencies of Cork North-East, Cork South-East and Cork South.

The main towns in the current constituency are Midleton, Youghal, Fermoy and Cobh.

Notable former representatives include Brooke Brasier, an ex-Unionist from a Cork landed family who was elected for Fine Gael in 1937. On the other side of the fence, were the surviving Kent Brothers David and William from the notable Kent family of militant Land Leaguers and Republicans which had a bloody shootout at the family home with the RIC – one brother was killed and another executed. Legend has it that the two remaining brothers were about to be shot against a stone wall by the RIC when a British Army officer prevented them. David was returned as a Republican in 1923 and as Sinn Féin in June 1927. William was returned as a Fianna Fáil TD in September 1927, lost his seat in 1932, then returned as a National Centre Party TD in 1933 but refused to follow that party into new Fine Gael. Richard Barry of Fine Gael served the area for twenty-seven years – the final two of which he was joined by his daughter Myra Barry who won a bye-election in 1969. Joe Sherlock of Official Sinn Féin first contested in 1973, finally winning a seat for Sinn Féin The Workers Party in 1981 before losing it against the grain in November 1982, regaining it in 1987 for the Workers Party, losing it again in 1992 as a member of Democratic Left before finally regaining it in 2002 as a member of Labour.

In 2020, the constituency consisted of part of the Mallow Electoral Area (the town of Mallow and immediately surrounding areas – Sean Sherlock’s base), part of the Cobh Electoral Area (mainly Cobh town), and most of the Fermoy and Midleton Electoral Areas. In 2016 two candidates (Sean Sherlock and Kevin O’Keeffe) had been elected in the North (Fermoy and Mallow), and two (David Stanton and Pat Buckley) in the South (Midleton and Cobh)

Below are the figures for the “North” and “South” in 2020

AREA	Buckley (SF)	Sherlock (LAB)	Stanton (FG)	O’Connor (FF)	O’Keeffe (FF)
North (46%)	4,719 (19%)	5,262 (21%)	785 (3%)	1,632 (7%)	5,899 (24%)
South (54%)	7,676 (26%)	1,426 (5%)	5,241 (18%)	5,335 (18%)	1,472 (5%)

The vote was split fairly even on the first count between Northern and Southern candidates, which should – in theory – have led to two candidates being elected from each region as in 2016, but on the final count Youghal-based James O’Connor of Fianna Fáil beat his Fermoy-based colleague Kevin O’Keeffe by 653 votes. O’Connor had been behind O’Keeffe the whole way throughout the count, but the final transfer of Youghal Independent (ex-Fianna Fáil) Councillor Mary Linehan-Foley’s votes finally brought him ahead. Not all Politics is local, but important bits are.

The reason why the natural equilibrium of the of the constituency was disrupted seems to be because southern-based Sinn Féin candidate Pat Buckley took nearly 40% of his vote from the north of the constituency, thereby disrupting the delicate equilibrium between the two halves of this political ecosystem.

The White Line in all the images is the border between the Northern LEAS – Fermoy and Mallow – and the Southern LEAS – Cobh and Midleton. The Red Line is Mallow and surrounding areas which are being transferred into Cork North

For the most part, Southern candidates were poll-toppers in the South and vice versa in the North – the one exception was Fermoy Town (which is hidden behind the word “Fermoy”) where Buckley topped the poll.

The sundering of Mallow from the constituency meant that more than 40% of Sean Sherlock’s was transferred to Cork North-West and Cork East. Sliced and diced effectively. You can also see below how the Sinn Féin surge did not respect artificial boundaries. Not ALL politics is local, even in rural Ireland.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Labour	Others	Ind.
Cork East 2020	14,440 (27%)	10,697 (20%)	12,587 (23%)	6,610 (12%)	5,541 (10%)	4,669 (9%)
To CNC/CNW	1,821 (22%)	959 (11%)	1,509 (18%)	3,024 (36%)	717 (9%)	360 (4%)
Cork East 2024	12,619 (27%)	9,538 (21%)	11,078 (24%)	3,586 (8%)	4,824 (11%)	4,309 (9%)

Looking through the candidates, Pat Buckley TD (SF) is joined on the ticket by Cobh-based Mehdi Özçınar who was unsuccessful in the local elections – Sinn Féin won 10 seats on Cork County Council ten years ago, in June they only won one. This also means that both Sinn Féin candidates are now in the south of the constituency. James O’Connor TD (FF) is joined by Cllr Deirdre O’Brien, sister of former Kevin O’Keeffe TD who was narrowly defeated last time – she is also joined in the Fermoy area by Cllr William O’Leary who left Fianna Fáil before the local elections and was re-elected as an Independent. Cllr Noel McCarthy (FG) is also running in the Fermoy district; he is joined on the Fine Gael ticket by Mark Stanton, son of outgoing TD David Stanton – When McCarthy and Stanton Snr both ran in 2016, the latter outpolled the former by 60-40. Cllr Mary Linehan Foley (Independent) is running again; last time she got three and a half thousand votes and her transfers were instrument in securing James O’Connor a seat. Cllr Liam Quaide (Social Democrats) ran for the Greens in 2020; he got re-elected as a Councillor in Midleton for the Social Democrats and should poll creditably.

Overall, there should be fairly safe seats for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin in the south of the constituency. The open seat in the Fermoy area is probably between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but an Independent seat cannot be ruled out particularly given the strong polling support for Independents

CORK NORTH-CENTRAL

Main Candidates : Thomas Gould TD (SF), Cllr Joe Lynch (SF), Pádraig O’Sullivan TD (FF), Cllr Tony Fitzgerald (FF), Sandra Murphy Kelleher (Fianna Fáil), Colm Burke TD (FG), Cllr Garret Kelleher (Fine Gael), Imelda Daly (FG), Mick Barry TD (Solidarity), Cllr John Maher (LAB), Cllr Eoghan Kenny (LAB), Cllr Oliver Moran (GP), Cllr. Eoghan Kenny (LAB), Cllr Ken O’Flynn (Independent Ireland)

Cork North-Central is now a five seat constituency which has existed in its current form (more or less) since 1981. The heart of the constituency has always been the mainly (but not exclusively) northside of Cork City. Occasionally the constituency has taken in part of the southside but the latest iteration is fully north of the Lee. However, the constituency has always included rural areas to the north of the city and in this election will be welcoming Ballincollig (which since 2018 has been within the city boundaries) and – more controversially – Mallow.

Notable former representatives include Bernard Allen (FG), who was unusual amongst Fine Gael politicians in having a strong working-class base in Gurranebraher; Billy Kelleher (Fianna Fáil), now an MEP, who lost his first election in 1992 to his cousin Liam Burke (FG) by only 25 votes and Mairin Quill (Progressive Democrats). In 2002, Fianna Fáil managed to elect three TDs out of five with only 2.2 quotas. One of those TDs was Noel O’Flynn (FF) whose son Ken is running for Independent Ireland this time.

Below are the figures for different areas in the Constituency. The North-West Ward is mainly working-class, whereas the North-East Ward has a more mixed social profile with middle-class areas along the banks of the Lee. The Cobh LEA/rural areas (Cobh town itself is in Cork East) wind around the city from the east – the eastern areas (Glanmire/Little Island) are predominantly urban while the north is mainly rural. Mallow (to the North) and Ballincollig (to the west)are coming into the constituency.

AREA	S.F.	F.F.	F.G.	Labour	Solidarity	Others	Ind.	%
NE City	4,442 (25%)	3,532 (20%)	1,957 (11%)	1,461 (8%)	1,297 (7%)	1,952 (11%)	2,931 (17%)	30%
NW City	6,372 (39%)	3,069 (19%)	1,616 (10%)	405 (3%)	1,590 (10%)	1,508 (9%)	1,594 (10%)	27%
Cobh/Rural	1,832 (16%)	4,450 (38%)	2,949 (25%)	383 (3%)	375 (3%)	1,362 (11%)	557 (5%)	20%
Mallow	1,102 (18%)	1,194 (19%)	618 (10%)	2,406 (39%)		500 (8%)	307 (5%)	10%
Ballincollig		2,412 (33%)	1,535 (21%)			3,315 (44%)	146 (2%)	13%

First thing to notice is that over three-quarters of the vote was cast in the old Cork North-Central. The remainder was cast in Ballincollig and Mallow which are geographically distant from each other. This means that aspirant candidates from either town cannot simply rely on a huge vote in their base to get them over the line.

Second thing to notice is the size of the “Others” vote in Ballincollig. 46%. This was a combination of Aontu, Social Democrats, the Greens and Irish Freedom Party, and undoubtedly their take was bolstered by the absence of Sinn Féin in the constituency.

Thitd thing to notice is that Labour took over half their 2020 vote in Mallow – they are pursuing a two Candidate strategy this time with one candidate in the City and one in the County.

The White Lines in all the images are the border of the areas coming in from Mallow and Ballincollig. The Red Line are the areas south of the Lee in the city and in the Dripsey/Gowlane area.

Sinn Féin dominated the city area – although Fianna Fáil and the Greens did top the poll in areas along the Lee. Fianna Fáil were also ahead in much of the rural and suburban areas surrounding the city. They also topped the poll in Ballincollig, while Labour did so in Mallow.

– AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Solidarity	Labour	Others	Ind.
Cork NC 2020	12,714 (25%)	7,802 (15%)	14,440 (27%)	3,703 (7%)	2,561 (5%)	5,811 (11%)	5,356 (10%)
To CSC	1,385 (28%)	1,074 (21%)	919 (18%)	326 (6%)	220 (4%)	973 (19%)	198 (4%)
To Cork NW	478 (32%)	457 (31%)	267 (18%)	59 (4%)	24 (2%)	158 (11%)	38 (3%)
From Mallow	1,194 (20%)	618 (10%)	1,102 (18%)		2,406 (39%)	500 (8%)	298 (5%)
From Ballincollig	2,776 (33%)	1,843 (22%)				3,691 (44%)	158 (2%)
Cork NC 2024	14,821 (25%)	8,732 (15%)	13,727 (23%)	3,318 (6%)	4,723 (8%)	8,891 (15%)	5,576 (9%)

Sinn Féin fall by four points in the reconfigured constituency according to the stats – but this is mainly because they didn’t have a candidate in Cork North-Central. Solidarity fall by one point from an already perilous 7% to 6%. There is little change for Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. Labour see their vote rise to 8%, but this is split between a Cork City and a Mallow Councillor.

Looking through the candidates, Thomas Gould TD (SF) is joined on the ticket by Ballincollig-based Cllr Joe Lynch – geographically this seems a bit constrained as Gould’s base is in the neighbouring North-West of the city. Pádraig O’Sullivan TD (FF) is again joined by Cllr Tony Fitzgerald (FF) who was re-elected in the mainly working-class North-West ward – Fianna Fáil narrowly outpolled Sinn Féin there in June. They are joined on the ticket by Ballincollig-based Sandra Murphy Kelleher who is the wife of Cllr Colm Kelleher. Colm Burke TD (FG) is joined on the Fine Gael ticket by another Ballincollig-based candidate, Cllr Garret Kelleher and also Imelda Daly, a teacher from Glanmire. Mick Barry TD (Solidarity) is running again. City North-East Cllr John Maher is running again for Labour – he polled impressively in the locals. He is joined on the ticket by Mallow-based Cllr Eoghan Kenny. Cllr Oliver Moran (GP) is running again for the Greens. Finally Cllr Ken O’Flynn (Independent Ireland) – who was the runner-up last time is running from a base in the north-east of the city.

Overall, there should be safe seats for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin – and an extra seat is possible for both parties. Fine Gael should also take a seat, although their decision to run three candidates here may prove to be ill-advised if their national vote were to contract. The fact that there are three major party candidates in Ballincollig might lead to their transfers crossing over to the city proper and none of them being elected. By contrast, the distance of Mallow from the city might allow the Labour candidate to rack up large totals in the town and get into the race for a seat. Solidarity will have to hope that the Sinn Féin vote won’t recover and that they can siphon enough of their supporting support. Independent Ireland seem to be in a good position to take the extra seat.

DONEGAL

Main Candidates : Pearse Doherty TD (SF), Padraig MacLochlainn TD (SF), Charlie McConalogue TD (FF), Thomas Pringle (IND), Nikki Bradley SEN (FG), Cllr. Noel Jordan (SF), Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF), Charles Ward (100%R), John McNulty (FG)

Donegal is a five seat constituency that has existed in its current form since 2016. It previously was contested between 1922 and 1933, and also in 1977. Protestant Independents James Myles and William Sheldon held a seat here continuously between 1922 and 1961 (though Sheldon originally took his seat as a Clann Na Talmhan candidate). Neil Blaney’s Independent Fianna Fáil nearly continuously held a seat here for over thirty years.

The 2016 Constituency was created from the previous Donegal Nth-East and Donegal Sth-West which had been in continuous existence since 1981. In 2020 Charlie McConalogue (previously Donegal North-East) beat his party colleague Pat “The Cope” Gallagher (previously Donegal South-West) by a mere 358 votes. It was even closer in 2016 when Independent Thomas Pringle (previously Donegal South-West) beat Sinn Féin’s Padraig MacLochlainn (previously Donegal Nth-East for the last seat by 184 votes. Geography matters in Donegal.

COUNTY	Doherty	MacLochlainn	McConalogue	McHugh	Pringle	Gallagher
North-East	5,591 (14%)	11,886 (30%)	7,393 (19%)	4,909 (13%)	755 (2%)	905 (2%)
South-West	14,955 (41%)	1,812 (5%)	750 (2%)	2,515 (7%)	4,557 (13%)	6,410 (18%)

Overall 52% of the vote was cast in the old North-East area, about 48% in the old South-West according to the tallies. It should be noted that the nine most southern-most DED (including the towns of Ballyshannon and Bundoran ) in Donegal are currently in Sligo-Leitrim – if they had voted in this constituency it is highly likely Gallagher would have taken the last seat.

McLochlainn, McConalogue and Pringle all took the vast majority of their vote from from their own area – however Doherty took over a quarter of his vote from the North-East, while McHugh took a third of his vote from the South-West. In fact it was Doherty’s ability to take votes from the North-East that led to MacLochlainn losing his seat narrowly to Thomas Pringle. Pringle again had reason to be thankful to Sinn Féin in 2020 as their refusal to run a third candidate saw him take over three thousand votes from the Sinn Féin Surpluses; having started in sixth position, he eventually took the third seat.

For Fianna Fáil CHARLIE McCONALOGUE and veteran PAT GALLAGHER face off again. One of them will probably be successful, although Fianna Fáil’s poll ratings in Connaught-Ulster do give some room for concern. The Wild Card in this constituency is of course the 100% Redress Party. They took 11% and four seats in the local elections – over 20% in Inishowen. Their candidate CHARLES WARD ran in the local elections in Stranorlar but wasn’t elected. Fine Gael had a nightmare at the local elections and only won three seats – it’s hard to know which of their candidates will be dominant given neither have a local electoral track record, but it is likely that Fine Gael are facing into a stiff headwind to retain a seat. Both Sinn Féin TDs should retain their seats, but taking a third would prove challenging – Mountcharles-based Councillor NOEL JORDAN will be competing directly with THOMAS PRINGLE for supremacy along the South-West Donegal Coastline.

Overall, there should at the moment be two definite seats for Sinn Féin, and a likely seat for Fianna Fáil. On the local election results, you would have to say 100% Redress are also likely to take a seat and with the vote being better in the North of the constituency the Fine Gael seat is most at risk. The final seat will likely be a battle between Sinn Féin and Thomas Pringle amongst the towns and villages of the South Donegal coast.

DUBLIN BAY NORTH

Dublin Bay North was first contested in 2016, but the two constituencies it replaced – Dublin North-Central and Dublin North-East go back far further. Dublin North-Central was first contested in 1948, and Dublin North-East goes back even further – to 1937.

However, it’s a bit more complicated than that – up until the 1970s, Dublin North-Central was essentially a North-Inner City Constituency and up until 1981 its northernmost settlement was Clontarf. Dublin North-East on the other hand would have encompassed the gradual spread of the northern suburbs until by the 1960s it seems to have covered an area roughly equivalent to the modern Dublin Bay North. It was abolished in 1977, but reappeared in its modern form in 1981.

Well known figures in Dublin Bay North and its predecessor constituencies include George Colley (Fianna Fáil), who was originally schoolfriend and later staunch enemy of Charles J. Haughey prior to his untimely death in 1983, Michael O’Leary (Labour), who was leader of the Labour Party from 1981 until 1982 when he sensationally left the party and was elected for Fine Gael in the November election of that year, Charles Haughey (Fianna Fáil), who switched to North-Central from North-East due to the northern movement of the boundaries in 1981, Noel Browne (Socialist Labour), elected for the last time in 1981 for the Socialist Labour Party, Richard Bruton (Fine Gael), Fine Gael grandee first elected in February 1982, Finian McGrath (Independent), Minister of State from 2016 to 2020, Alfie Byrne (Independent), legendary Dublin Independent, who was originally elected as a Irish Parliamentary Party MP in 1915, James Larkin (Independent/Labour), legendary Labour organiser, elected as an Independent in 1937 and for Labour in 1943, Peadar Cowan (Clann Na Poblachta/Independent), larger-than-life character who was grandfather of actor Rory Cowan, Sean Dublin Bay Loftus, environmental campaigner who first ran in 1965 and finally won a seat in 1981 and Conor Cruise O’Brien (Labour), Minister in the 1973-1977 government and later newspaper columnist.

The 2020 election saw two left-wing Independent veterans – Finian McGrath and Tommy Broughan – bow out. They were eventually replaced by two other left-wingers – Cian O’Callaghan of the Social Democrats and Aodhain O’Riordain of Labour.

In fact this was a strong constituency for the Centre-Left, with a Social Democrat and Labour candidate elected, and a Green Candidate runner-up.

Again, you can see the social class division in the Biggest Parties map – Fine Gael led along the coast, Sinn Féin led away from it. In between Labour topped the poll in Killester and also Fairview.

There are four Electoral Areas in Dublin Bay North :

• CLONTARF, which stretches along the southern constituency, and also takes in the Donnycarney, Fairview and Killester.
• DONAGHMEDE, in the middle of the constituency, also contains Raheny, Kilbarrack and Edenmore.
• ARTANE-WHITEHALL (part), in the north-west. Contains Coolock and Darndale.
• HOWTH-MALAHIDE (part), in the north-east. Also contains Sutton, Bayside and Baldoyle.

The following table contains the party performance by Local Electoral Area.

AREA	F.F.	FINE GAEL	SINN FEIN	LABOUR	S.D.	OTHERS	INDS.	%
Clontarf (pt.)	17%	23%	16%	18%	7%	15%	4%	32%
Donaghmede	12%	16%	38%	10%	7%	11%	6%	30%
Artane-Whitehall (pt.)	12%	10%	54%	5%	4%	6%	9%	21%
Howth-Malahide (pt.)	12%	27%	15%	9%	19%	13%	5%	18%

Note how both Aodhain O’Riordain and Cian O’Callaghan had strong personal bases in Clontarf and Howth-Malahide respectively. The Sinn Féin vote was very much concentrated in the working-class areas of Donaghmede and Artane-Whitehall.

Here are the support maps for the candidates elected in Dublin Bay North.

The constituency sees three DEDs in the vicinity of Beaumont moving into Dublin North-West. The areas in question are neither particularly middle-class nor working-class. Taking the party figures at face value – the tally for the new constituency would look like this

CONSTITUENCY	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Labour	S.D.	Others	Independents	Votes
DBN 2020	14.4%	18.8%	29.8%	11.3%	8.7%	14.0%	3.0%	72,251
To Dublin NW	17.5%	16.3%	32.3%	10.7%	7.8%	8.9%	3.8%	5.197
TOTAL	14.1%	19.0%	29.6%	11.4%	8.8%	14.4%	2.7%	67,054

To be completed….

DUBLIN CENTRAL

Main Candidates : Mary Lou McDonald TD (SF), Paschal Donohoe TD (FG), Neasa Hourigan TD (Greens), Gary Gannon TD (SD), Mary Fitzpatrick SEN (FF), Marie Sherlock SEN (LAB), Janice Boylan CLLR (SF), Malachy Steenson CLLR (IND), Clare Daly (I4C), Gerry Hutch (IND)

Dublin Central is a four seat constituency that has existed in its current form (or near to it since 1981 – Its core geographic areas are the North Inner City, Drumcondra and Cabra. It is traditionally seen as a working-class constituency, but parts of the constituency have undergone sizeable gentrification. Bertie Ahern was a major vote-getter in the constituency – it was also the constituency of the late Tony Gregory TD.

On the evidence of the map above – Dublin Central looks rather, well dimensional. It’s a bit more complex. Below is a table showing how the parties did in different areas of Dublin Central.

AREA	Sinn Féin	Fine Gael	S.D.	Greens	Fianna Fáil	Others	Proportion
North Inner City	46%	10%	8%	9%	5%	22%	25%
Drumcondra / Glasnevin	17%	25%	14%	17%	15%	14%	31%
Phibsboro / Stoneybatter	34%	13%	9%	15%	6%	18%	19%
Cabra	51%	10%	6%	8%	13%	12%	25%

Drumcondra/Glasnevin would have a relatively stable middle-class population, while there is a growing younger middle-class cohort in Phibsboro/Stonybatter. The electorate in both Cabra and the North Inner City is predominantly working-class.

It’s interesting to note that Fianna Fáil were the second most popular party in Cabra, but got a poor return in the North Inner City. The Greens polled well in the gentrifying Stoneybatter/Phibsboro area, outpolling Fine Gael.

It is something of an anomaly that in a traditionally working-class constituencies three of the four candidates elected scored the best poll in the least working-class part of the constituency.

Despite Sinn Féin’s poor polling in Dublin, there’s no reason to believe that MARY LOU McDONALD’s seat is in danger, though the prospect of a second (which they would have won in 2020) is currently remote. PASCHAL DONOHOE should also be assured of a seat, and probably GARY GANNON of the Social Democrats as well. The Dublin polling is not promising for the Greens, but in their favour is the fact that they managed to get two councillors elected in the area in the Locals. MARY FITZPATRICK of FIanna Fáil should challenge for a seat, but the party’s weakness in the North Inner City could be a problem.

Overall, there is definite seat for Sinn Féin, and a very likely seat for Fine Gael. The Social Democrats are also likely to retain their seat. The last seat at the moment might be between Fianna Fáil and the Greens.

DUBLIN SOUTH-WEST

Main Candidates : Seán Crowe TD (SF), John Lahart TD (FF), Colm Brophy TD (FG), Paul Murphy (PBP), Francis Noel Duffy (GP), Alan Edge CLLR (IND), Ciarán Ahern CLLR (Labour Party), Teresa Costello CLLR (FF), Niamh Whelan CLLR (SF), Sarah Barnes CLLR (FG), Niamh Whelan CLLR (SF)

Dublin South-West has existed in its present form since 1981 – the previous Dublin South-West actually largely covered the parts of the current Dublin South-Central outside the Inner City.

The Constituency Commission recommended that Tallaght-Fettercairn be moved to Dublin Mid-West and that three Templeogue/Terenure area DEDS instead be moving into the constituency from Dublin South-Central. The combined effect of theses changes will make the constituency more middle-class.

The following map shows the poll-toppers in Dublin South-West – I’ve intentionally left the southern half of the constituency out so that tue urbanised northern half (where 98% of the population is based) can be seen properly. The area with the Red Border is Fettercairn which is moving into Dublin Mid-West.

The Map below shows the poll-topping parties – the areas north of the white line are coming in from Dublin South-Central. Fianna Fáil topped the poll in Firhouse, and Fine Gael in Rathfarnham and Templeogue. Everywhere else Sinn Féin was dominant.

The table below shows the performance of the parties dependent on the proportion of Middle-Class (Employer Managerial Professional headed households).

AREA TYPE	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Greens	Left	Others	Independents	%
Middle Class < 33%	14%	9%	43%	4%	13%	8%	9%	48%
Middle-Class 33%-50%	20%	19%	23%	10%	8%	12%	9%	16%
Middle-Class >50%	25%	28%	9%	13%	3%	13%	9%	36%

Historically, Dublin South-West has been seen as a mainly working-class constituency but boundary changes over the years have increased the middle-class proportion of the population and in this election well over a third of the voters will live in areas with a high proportion of Middle-Class Households. And this matters – in 2020, The Government parties got two-thirds of the vote in the most middle-class areas whereas Sinn Féin and Solidarity/People Before Profit took only 12%; in the most working-class areas, the former only took a quarter of the vote, while the latter took over half the vote.

YEAR	Middle-Class <33%	Middle-Class 33%-50%	Middle-Class >50%
2007	72%	14%	14%
2016	51%	16%	33%
2020	48%	16%	36%

Back in 2007, nearly three-quarters of the votes were cast in strongly working-class areas. The proportion of strongly Middle-class areas more than doubled with the addition of Rathfarnham from the old Dublin South in 2016. The removal of Fettercairn and the addition of parts of Templeogue and Terenure in this election makes the constituency marginally more middle-class again.

Of the candidates, TDs JOHN LAHART (Fianna Fáil) and COLM BROPHY (Fine Gael) probably stand to benefit most by the areas coming in from Dublin South-Central. Both Sinn Féin candidates SEAN CROWE TD and Cllr NIAMH WHELAN are Tallaght-based; on the 2020 results they would look likely have taken two seats, but on their current Dublin Polling, the most they can expect is one. Despite their relatively decent performance in other parts of Dublin, the Greens won no council seats in the areas within Dublin South-West which suggests FRANCIS NOEL DUFFY (Green Party) faces an uphill battle for re-election. PAUL MURPHY (People Before Profit) would likely have lost his seat had Sinn Féin ran two candidates last time, but the fact that PBP won two seats in Tallaght in the local elections gives him cause for hope.

In both 2016 and 2020, one centre-left candidate was elected which would give CIARAN AHERN (Labour) cause for hope – Labour polled strongly in the Local elections in Rathfarnham-Templeogue taking two of the seven seats. Cllr TERESA COSTELLO (Fianna Fáil) was elected on the first count in Tallaght Central, while Fine Gael Councillor SARAH BARNES (a daughter of the late Monica Barnes TD) was elected in Firhouse-Bohernabreena.

The wildcards in this area are the Independent Councillors PADDY HOLOHAN (Tallaght South) and ALAN EDGE (Firhouse-Bohernabreena). Elected for Sinn Féin in 2019, Holohan actually won a seat in both Tallaght South and Tallaght Central, while Edge took nearly a quota and a half in Firhouse-Bohernabreena; given the current strong regional polling for Independents in Dublin currently, you’d have to give one or other of them a good chance of taking a seat. In particular Holohan going toe-to-toe with his former Sinn Féin party colleagues in Tallaght will be a fascinating contest.

Overall, there should at the moment be a definite seat for Fine Gael, and a very likely seat for Fianna Fáil. There still should be two Tallaght-based left-wing/working-class candidates elected but the entry of Independent Paddy Holohan very much queers the pitch here. Although he will take more votes from Sinn Féin, it could be People Before Profit who might suffer. There was one centre-left representative elected in both 2016 and 2020, and both the Greens and Labour might be in competition with Alan Edge for the likely centre-left seat.

GALWAY EAST (4 seats)

Main Candidates : Anne Rabbitte TD (FF), Cllr Albert Dolan (FF), Seán Canney (IND), Cllr Louis O’Hara (SF), Cllr Pete Roche (FG), Cllr Clodagh Higgins (FG), Niamh Madden (Fine Gael), Cllr Declan Geraghty (II)

The Galway East constituency existed from 1937 to 1948, 1961 to 1969, and from 1977 onwards. Between 1948 and 1961 it was replaced by Galway North and South, and between 1969 and 1977 by Galway North-East and Clare-South Galway, all of which had East Galway at their core.

East Galway was a historically strong area for Fianna Fàil and their support rarely fell below 50% in any of the constituencies mentioned above. In 1948, Fianna Fáil took 71% of the vote and all three seats in Galway East; they took three out of four in 1977.

Notable personalities in East Galway include : Mark Killilea Senior and Junior and Michael Kitt Senior and Junior of Fianna Fáil, Robert Malachy Burke, a Christian Socialist from a Protestant Landed Gentry background who was runner-up for Labour in 1943, Michael and John Donnellan representing Clann Na Talmhan and then Fine Gael from 1943 until 1989.

In 2020, the three seats were taken Anne Rabbitte (Fianna Fáil), Ciaran Cannon (FG) and Independent Sean Canney – Rabbitte narrowly beat Louis O’Hara (Sinn Féin) on the final count. Canney’s vote was primarily based in the north from Tuam to Headford, Cannon in the rural south-west, and Rabbitte in the South-West. O’Hara topped the poll in Loughrea and disparate rural areas.

A strip of territory extending fron Dunmore and Glenamaddy down to Aughrim is being added to the constituency to allow it become a four-seater

Below is the 2020 result based on the revised constituency boundaries

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Others	Independents	%
Galway East 2020	10,694 (25%)	12,332 (29%)	7,108 (17%)	4,325 (10%)	8,061 (19%)	84%
Roscommon-Galway	1,053 (12%)	1,343 (16%)	1,139 (14%)	301 (4%)	4,578 (54%)	16%
Galway East 2024	11,747 (23%)	13,675 (27%)	8,247 (16%)	4,679 (9%)	12,639 (25%)	100%

On the basis of the above figures, the Independent Vote would rise steeply – however it should be borne in mind that there was a big personal vote for Michael FitzMaurice in the area coming from Roscommon-Galway, and also that the area isn’t geographically choate.

Looking at the candidates, Fianna Fáil’s ANNE RABBITTE is based in Portumna; her colleage ALBERT DOLAN topped the poll in Athenry-Oranmore in June. Fine Gael’s PETE ROCHE polled impressively in the Tuam Electoral Area in June; his colleagues CLODAGH HIGGINS (a city Councillor) and NIAMH MADDEN are based in Athenry and Portumna respectively. Sinn Féin’s LOUIS O’HARA should be favourite for taking the fourth seat – if his vote holds up. DECLAN GERAGHTY is from Williamstown in the North-East of the area coming into the constituency of Roscommon-Galway – he should poll well in that area.

On the 2020 figures, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sean Canney should all take a seat. So should Sinn Féin – on the 2020 figures. A second seat for Fianna Fáil is a possibility.

MAYO (5 seats)

Main Candidates : Rose Conway-Walsh TD (SF), Gerry Murray CLLR (SF), Dara Calleary TD (FF), Lisa Chambers SEN (FF), Alan Dillon TD (FG), Mark Duffy CLLR (FG), Keira Keogh (FG), Martina Jennings (FG), , Chris Maxwell CLLR (II), Paul Lawless CLLR (AON), Patsy O’Brien (IND)

Mayo is a five seat constituency that has existed in its current form since 1997. Previously it was subdivided into Mayo East and Mayo West (and earlier Mayo North and Mayo South). Clann Na Talmhan were strong here, particularly in east Mayo, and it could be argued that a significant proportion of the strength of Fine Gael here from the 1960s onwards was inherited from Clann Na Talmhan.

The Constituency Commission recommended that the rural DEDs south of Ballinrobe which are currently in Galway West be returned to the county and that a fifth seat be granted. If this had happened in 2020, Michael Ring would likely been the beneficiary, but the absence of a major local candidate now opens them up.

Voting patterns are generally organised on a north-south basis in Mayo. You can see how Rose Conway-Walsh (SF) and Dara Calleary dominated the North in 2022, while the indefatigable Michael Ring dominated the south all by himself.

Below is the 2020 result based on the revised constituency boundaries

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Others	Independents	%
Mayo 2020	24.1%	39.5%	22.7%	12.4%	1.2%	96%
Galway West 2020 (part)	35.3%	32.1%	15.0%	8.4%	9.2%	4%
MAYO 2024	24.6%	39.2%	22.5%	12.3%	1.5%	100%

As the boundary changes are comparatively minor, they don’t change the dial much. On the figures you would expect the last seat to be a tussle between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with each aiming to secure a second seat.

Below I’m putting up two maps – Dara Calleary’s share of the Fianna Fáil vote, and Michelle Mulherin’s share of the overall vote.

Michelle Mulherin actually started ahead of Alan Dillon on the first count – and was only 241 votes behind him when she was eliminated on the sixth count. If you look at the maps above, you can see that her allocated vote area was similar to Dara Calleary’s – except for the absence of Belmullet.

And the reason why she narrowly failed is because Michael Ring had access to all rural areas from the north-west to the south-east of Mayo – quite possibly the biggest vote range in Ireland. If Mulherin had had access to the Belmullet area, she would have likely been a TD instead of Alan Dillon.

Looking at the candidates, the Sinn Fein duo ROSE CONWAY-WALSH and GERRY MURRAY are both based in the north (albeit at some distance from one another); Murray is a strong poller at local elections but his base in Charlestown is geographically isolated right on the Sligo border. DARA CALLEARY and LISA CHAMBERS return for Fianna Fáil – the latter after a decent showing in the European Elections. Fine Gael have no less than four candidates contesting ALAN DILLON (Castlebar), MARK DUFFY (Ballina), KEIRA KEOGH (Westport) and MARTINA JENNINGS (Ballinrobe) – Mark Duffy does seem to have a large geographical area to himself in the North of the Constituency. CHRIS MAXWELL of Independent Ireland will presumably be vying for votes with Keogh in Westport, while in the rural east of the county Independent PATSY O’BRIEN and Aontu Councillor PAUL LAWLESS will be vying for votes. If they transfer into one another – and it’s a big ask given the distance between them – the stronger could be in contention.

Overall, Fine Gael should definitely take two seats and Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin one each. The last seat is hard to call.

MEATH EAST (4 seats)

Meath East (4 seats): Darren O’Rourke TD (SF), , Maria White CLLR (SF), Helen McEntee TD (Fine Gael), Sharon Tolan CLLR (FG) Thomas Byrne TD (FF), Caroline O’Reilly CLLR (FF), Gillian Toole CLLR (IND)

Meath East is a rather strangely shaped constituency which takes in East Meath – does what it says on the tin – but also north-west Meath part of which dips down to capture Kells (which on a map appears to be in splendid isolation, surrounded as it is on three sides by Meath West). It was first contested in 2007 when Fianna Fáil won two seats to Fine Gael’s one. In 2011 Fianna Fáil lost both their seats to Fine Gael and Labour. In 2020, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin won one each. Major settlements include the aforementioned Kells, Ratoath, Ashbourne and Dunboyne, the latter three closely grouped together in the south-east of the constituency near the Dublin Border.

It becomes a four-seater this time with Julianstown (including the coastal settlements of Bettystown and Laytown) in the east coming in from the Louth constituency and parts of rural North Meath including the village of Drumconrath return from a brief sojourn in Cavan-Monaghan, Figures for the new Meath East – based on the tallies – are laid out in the table below.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Others	Ind.	%
Meath East 2020	7,980 (19%)	11,871 (28%)	10,223 (24%)	6,462 (15%)	5,409 (13%)	87%
Louth 2020	582 (14%)	866 (21%)	1,433 (35%)	1,046 (26%)	120 (3%)	9%
Cav.-Monaghan 2020	611 (29%)	498 (24%)	746 (35%)	260 (12%)	3 (0%)	4%
Meath East 2024	9,173 (19%)	13,235 (28%)	12,402 (26%)	7,678 (16%)	5,532 (12%)	100%

Overall – on paper – the changes would see a slight boost for Sinn Féin. One caveat is that the areas coming from Cavan-Monaghan are quite close to Helen McEntee’s base in Nobber – the party figures in the transferred area in 2016 (The last time the six relevant DEDs were in Meath East are as follows : Fine Gael 41%, Fianna Fáil 35%, Sinn Féin 17%, Others 5%, Independents 2%.

Above is the largest parties per area – the areas enclose by the white borderlines are those coming in from Cavan-Monaghan and Louth respectively.

Looking at the internal geography of the constituency – last time two candidates (McEntee and Thomas Byrne of Fianna Fáil ) were elected from the Northern half of the constituency (broadly speaking the Northern half of the Kells Electoral Area and the Bettystown-Laytown Electoral Area) while one candidate (Darren O’Rourke of Sinn Féin) was elected in the south (the Ashbourne and Ratoath Electoral Areas). Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael Party tickets were organised on a North-South basis.

Looking at the candidates, HELEN McENTEE TD (Fine Gael) is a strong poller and will be helped by the areas of North Meath returning into the constituency; her colleague Cllr SHARON TOLAN topped the poll in Laytown-Bettystown in the recent local elections – however she is right at the edge of the constituency as half of her home town of Bettystown lies across the border in the Louth Constituency. THOMAS BYRNE TD (Fianna Fáil) will also be well-placed to take advantage of the additions to the constituency; his runner Cllr CAROLINE O’REILLY polled creditably in her first local election in June. Cllr MARLA WHITE of Sinn Féin also took a seat in Laytown-Bettystown – either herself or DARREN O’ROURKE TD should retain a seat for Sinn Féin. Cllr GILLIAN TOOLE (Independent formerly Fine Gael) took nearly two quotas on the first count in Dunshaughlin in the June local elections, and the public mood for independents as well as the absence of a Fine Gael candidate in the south of the constituency, cannot but help her cause.

Overall, The three big parties should take a seat each. Barring a swing to any of them, Independent Gillian Toole could take the final seat.

WICKLOW (4 seats)

Main Candidates : John Brady TD (SF), Simon Harris TD (FG), Stephen Donnelly TD (FF), Jennifer Whitmore TD (SD), Steven Matthews TD (GP), Cllr Joe Behan (Ind), Cllr Edward Timmins (FG), Cllr Gerry O’Neill (Ind), Cllr. Paul O’Brien (LAB), Shay Cullen (Ind)

Wicklow has been a constituency since 1923. Notable representatives include Christopher Byrne who was a TD for Cumann na Gaedhal in the 1920s and Fianna Fáil in the 1940s, James Everett (Labour and National Labour) who was a Labour TD for 45 years until his death in 1967 – he is probably best remembered for the Battle of Baltinglass. Patrick Cogan represented the constituency as a Fianna Fáil, Clann Na Talmhan and Independent TD. More recently significant figures have included Dick Roche of Fianna Fáil and Gemma Hussey for Fine Gael.

The Constituency Commission has recommended that parts of South Wicklow be included in a new constituency of Wicklow-Wexford leading to Wicklow being reduced to a four seater. This is going to be problematic for the five TDs – all of whom are running again – as they all live in the Bray-Greystones area.

Of the ten main candidates listed above, six – including all five TDs – are based in Bray and Greystones, two – Timmins and O’Neill – are based in the Baltinglass area, and the remaining two are based in Wicklow area.

Well over half the population in the constituency live in the Bray-Greystones area in the north-east. John Brady of Sinn Féin topped the poll across Bray, Simon Harris in Graystones but Jennifer Whitmore in neighbouring Delgany, and John Brady again in Wicklow town – though Independent (formerly Sinn Féin) topped the poll in the adjacent rural areas. Billy Timmins topped the poll through much of the rural West, although again Brady topped the poll in Blessington. Two of the current TDs are based in Bray, three in Graystones.

Below is the 2020 result based on Electoral Area

AREA	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Fianna Fail	Greens	S.D.	Others	Independents	%
Bray	22%	26%	11%	13%	7%	6%	16%	30%
Greystones	29%	16%	13%	10%	23%	4%	5%	27%
Wicklow	22%	20%	12%	6%	11%	8%	22%	26%
Baltinglass	41%	23%	15%	6%	6%	3%	7%	17%

Fine Gael won 41% in Baltinglass, the only area west of the Wicklow Mountains – in Baltinglass town and surrounding areas that rose to over 50%. Billy Timmins took four-fifths of that vote, meaning that he took about a third of the vote in that area. However he still only placed 7th on the first count and was eliminated before the last count, his geographic isolation limiting his transfer-friendliness.

Also note that Jennifer Whitmore took an impressive 23% in Greystones Electoral Area – that suggests she has a strong personal base there which could help retain if the Social Democrats fall out of electoral favour.

The following table gives the likely support changes in the newly truncated constituency.

AREA	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Fianna Fáil	Greens	S.D.	Others	Independents	%
Wicklow 2020	18,392 (26%)	17,297 (24%)	9,940 (14%)	5,634 (8%)	7039 (10%)	3,815 (5%)	9,211 (13%)	100%
W’low-W’ford	3,632 (24%)	4,794 (32%)	2,897 (20%)	549 (4%)	735 (5%)	648 (4%)	1,636 (11%)	21%
Wicklow 2024	14,760 (26%)	12,503 (22%)	7043 (13%)	5085 (9%)	6304 (11%)	3,167 (6%)	7,575 (13%)	79%

Sinn Féin are the main losers in the redraw with their vote falling by two points as their vote was much stronger in the south than in the north despite their sole candidate being from Bray. Fianna Fáil’s support also falls for the same reason, while the Greens and Social Democrats slightly increase their share of support.

Final observations : Five into four will no go. There will definitely be one loser. Fine Gael will be aiming for a second seat, but given that Billy Timmins was unable to take a seat in a five seat Wicklow with a full Baltinglass area in 2020, it is a daunting task for EDDIE TIMMINS to do so in a four seat Wicklow with a truncated Baltinglass EA. That said, Simon Harris running as Taoiseach is likely to run a considerable surplus and that could haul Timmins over the line. JENNIFER WHITMORE of the Social Democrats might be on just over half a quota, but there will be one centre-left seat here and she is well placed – and she has a strong base in Delgany and Greystones. JOHN BRADY of Sinn Féin should be safe. STEPHEN DONNELLY is technically vulnerable on the 2020 figures, but Fine Gael would have to increase their vote steeply to challenge. An Independent such as SHAY CULLEN or Cllr JOE BEHAN can’t be ruled out.

Overall, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats should take seats. The last seat should go to Fianna Fáil but an Independent or Fine Gael can’t be ruled out.

WEXFORD-WICKLOW (3 seats)

Main Candidates : Malcolm Byrne SEN (FF), Pat Kennedy CLLR (FF), Fionntán O Súillebháin CLLR (SF), Brian Brennan (FG), Cllr. Peir Leonard (IND)

Wexford-Wicklow is a new constituency, amalgamating North Wexford with South Wexford. In Wicklow the town of Arklow and the villages of Carnew, Shillelagh and Tinahely are included; in Wexford, the towns of Gorey, Courtown and Bunclody. Roughly 40% of the voters in 2020 were in Wicklow, the remaining 60% in Wexford.

It’s also a very unusual constituency in that it has no sitting TDs – all ten TDs in the current Wexford and Wicklow constituencies live outside the area and none are running here.

Of the Five main candidates above, three – Malcolm Byrne, Brian Brennan and Fiontainn O’Suilleabhain – are based in Gorey town and the other two – Kennedy and Leonard – are based in Arklow town. In addition Brennan apparently lives in Gorey but works in Arklow.

The Wicklow area is not very choate – it’s a long sliver of territory. Carnew is arguably closer to Gorey than to Arklow. The Wexford area is more compact, containing as it does the whole of the Gorey Area

Below is the 2020 result based on the revised constituency boundaries

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Others	Independents
Wexford 2020	6,770 (32%)	5,516 (26%)	5,401 (26%)	1,932 (13%)	1,061 (5%)
Wicklow 2020	2,897 (20%)	3,632 (24%)	4,794 (32%)	2,377 (11%)	1,636 (11%)
WICKLOW-WEXFORD	9,667 (27%)	9,148 (25%)	10,195 (28%)	4,309 (12%)	2,705 (8%)

All three major parties polled better in Wexford than Wicklow, though in Sinn Féin’s case the difference was not substantial. Fianna Fáil took less than three thousand votes in Wicklow, but the entry of poll-topping Arklow Councillor Pat Kennedy is likely to improve that considerably.

The most prolific poll-topper in the Wicklow area wasn’t even from the area – it was John Brady (SF) of Bray. The picture in Wexford was more mixed.

Given that the majority of the population and the electorate of the constituency are on the Wexford side of the border, the fact that there is only major party candidate on the Wicklow side, and indeed the rather unusual geography of the Wicklow portion of the constituency, it’s nothing unreasonable to conclude that at least two of the three TDs here will be elected from the Wexford side.

Also worth considering is that there are three main party candidates in Gorey Town – Senator MALCOLM BYRNE of Fianna Fáil, BRIAN BRENNAN of Fine Gael, and Fionntain O’Suilleabhain of Sinn Féin. In the town itself in 2020, Fianna Fáil took 37% (mostly Byrne), Sinn Féin 31% and Fine Gael 18% – Fine Gael with Michael D’Arcy as their lead candidate in the area would have done in rural areas, whereas you would expect Brennan to possibly appeal more to the urban electorate. PAT KENNEDY delivered an eye-catching performance in Arklow in June, taking nearly two quotas on the first count and the absence of direct Fine Gael and Sinn Féin competition in the town won’t hurt – perhaps his bigger issue is to get a solid Wicklow vote out of the rural areas and small communities in the part of the Baltinglass Electoral Area within Wicklow-Wexford. PEIR LEONARD was elected as an Independent on the first count in Arklow, and given the favourable polling for Independents at the moment, she can’t be discounted.

Overall, Fianna Fáil should definitely take one seat and Fine Gael very likely to take one. Sinn Féin should take one, but given their current moderate polling, a second Fianna Fail seat or an Independent one cannot be completely discounted.

HISTORY

The following tables shows the proportions of party seats in the Kerry constituencies since 1923.

CONSTITUENCY	F.F.**	Fine Gael***	Labour	Sinn Féin	C.N.T.	Others****	Ind.
Kerry (1923-1937)	21 (58%)	13 (36%)		1 (3%)		1 (3%)
Kerry Nth (1937-2016)*	25 (37%)	12 (18%)	16 (24%)	3 (4%)	4 (6%)	4 (6%)	4 (6%)
Kerry Sth (1937-2016)	38 (56%)	19 (28%)	6 (9%)	1 (1%)			5 (7%)
Kerry (2016-)	2 (20%)	2 (20%)		2 (20%)			4 (40%)
TOTAL	86 (47%)	46 (25%)	22 (12%)	7 (4%)	4 (2%)	5 (3%)	13 (7%)

Notes:
* Includes Kerry North-West Limerick in 2011
** Includes Republicans in 1923
*** Includes Cumann na nGaedhal from 1923 to 1933
**** National Labour (1944, 1948); Clann na Poblachta (1954, 1956)

Continue reading The New Constituencies : Kerry →

HISTORY

Dublin Bay North was first contested in 2016, but the two constituencies it replaced – Dublin North-Central and Dublin North-East go back far further. Dublin North-Central was first contested in 1948, and Dublin North-East goes back even further – to 1937.

However, it’s a bit more complicated than that – up until the 1970s, Dublin North-Central was essentially a North-Inner City Constituency and up until 1981 its northernmost settlement was Clontarf. Dublin North-East on the other hand would have encompassed the gradual spread of the northern suburbs until by the 1960s it seems to have covered an area roughly equivalent to the modern Dublin Bay North. It was abolished in 1977, but reappeared in its modern form in 1981.

CONSTITUENCY	Fianna Fail	Fine Gael	Labour	Other	Independents
Dublin North-Central (1969-2011)	23 (47%)	16 (33%)	6 (12%)	1 (2%)	3 (6%)
Dublin North-East (1937-2011)	39 (44%)	23 (26%)	13 (15%)	3 (3%)	11 (12%)

Others include : Socialist Labour in D.N.C. in 1981, Clann Na Poblachta in Dublin North East in 1948, Workers Party in 1987 and 1989

Continue reading The New Constituencies – Dublin Bay North →

HISTORY

Tipperary North has existed – apart from a brief interlude between 2016 and the present – as a stand-alone constituency since 1948. From 1948 until 2011 it consisted entirely of areas within Tipperary, with areas being exchanged intermittently with Tipperary South. From 2011 to 2016, it also consisted of the part of rural south Offaly sandwiched between the barony of Lower Ormond north of Nenagh and Roscrea and its hinterland.

Fianna Fáil were largely dominant in North Tipperary taking nearly half the seats between 1948 and 2011. Below you can see the statistics for the seat takes in both Tipperary constituencies.

CONSTITUENCY	Fianna Fail	Fine Gael	Labour	Other	Independents
Tipperary North	27 (47%)	15 (26%)	10 (18%)	1 (2%)	4 (7%)
Tipperary South	34 (44%)	23 (30%)	12 (16%)	2 (2%)	6 (8%)

Others include : Clann Na Poblachta in 1948 in both constituencies, Workers Unemployed Action Group in Tipperary South in 2007. Seamus Healy had previously run as an Independent.

Daniel Morrissey was a Trade Unionist who first won a seat for Labour in the then Tipperary Mid, North and South constituency in 1922 – Legend has it that Ernie O’Malley threatened to shoot Morrissey if he stood, but relented when Dan Breen threatened to shoot him. He broke with Labour in 1931 over his support for the Cumann na nGaedhal’s government’s plans to introduce Capital Punishment for IRA members. He soon afterwards joined Fine Gael, and remained a TD until 1957.

The two Fianna Fáil Michaels – Smith and O’Kennedy – loomed large over politics in Tipperary over four decades. The Roscrea-based Smith represented the constituency from 1969 to 1974, 1977 to 1981 and finally has a more secure tenure from 1987 until his final defeat in 2002. He held ministerial roles in Defence, Education and Environment. The Nenagh-based O’Kennedy represented the constituency from 1969 to 1981, November 1982 to 1992 and finally 1997 to 2002. He was appoint European Commissioner in 1981, but resigned and returned to domestic politics in November 1982. He held several Ministerial roles including Minister for Finance.

Special mention must be made of the November 1982 election where Michael Smith was defeated despite securing over 0.97 quotas and being only 210 votes short of the quota on the first count. I will look at this election in more detail in a separate post.

Michael Lowry was first elected for 1987 for Fine Gael – his election victories in 1989 and 1992 were relatively narrow, but he has topped the poll as an Independent ever since.

Continue reading The New Constituencies – Tipperary North →

HISTORY

Dublin South-Central first came into existence at the time of the 1948 election – however until 1969 it covered the west and central areas of the inner city; Ballyfermot, Kilmainham and Crumlin were for the same time period in the then Dublin South-West constituency, a completely different constituency to the current one of the same name. In 1969 and 1973, Dublin South-Central was the name of a different constituency covering Kimmage, Rathfarnham, Terenure and part of Rathmines – quite similar to the current local electoral area of Kimmage-Rathmines. In 1977, Dublin South-Central reverted to its pre-1969 South Inner City origins and in 1981 the first iteration of the modern constituency emerged.

The Constituency between 1948 and 1969 was a strong one for Fianna Fáil – they won three out of five seats in 1951, 1957, 1961 and 1965. Sean Lemass was the poll-topper on all six occasions, though Maurice Dockrell of the Dockrell Fine Gael dynasty came close on one occasion.

Other interesting holders of office in this period include Phillp Brady (Fianna Fáil) who represented Dublin South-Central for a total of 23 years until his retirement at the age of 84 in 1977 and lived to the ripe old age of 102; James Larkin Junior, who was a Labour T.D. for nine years; Celia Lynch (Fianna Fáil), who represented the constituency for 23 years; Beret-wearing Jack Murphy, elected for the Unemployed Protest Committee in 1957; Thomas J. Fitzpatrick, elected in 1965, currently the oldest former Irish Parliamentarian at 98; Frank Cluskey, Labour Leader, elected in 1965.

In Dublin South-West (effectively the southern and western parts of the current Dublin South-Central), Leader of Clann na Poblachta Sean MacBride topped the poll in 1948 – he held a seat until 1957. Bob Briscoe of Fianna Fáil held a seat from 1948 until 1965, when he was replaced by his son Ben.

Michael Ffrench O’Carroll was a medical doctor originally in Clann Na Poblachta, but was elected as an Independent in 1951 – in 1953 he moved to Fianna Fáil with Noel Browne and unsuccessfully contested the 1954 and 1957 elections. He later became a pioneer of addiction care and founded Cuan Mhuire.

One of the more colourful characters of the constituency was Labour man Sean Dunne. A socialist and republican, he was interned for two years in the Curragh and Arbour Hill during the Emergency. He was elected a Labour TD on the 18th July 1969 for the constituency but died before he could take his seat.

Before the 1960s, Labour were not strong in the constituency, but in 1965 John O’Connell took a seat and in 1969 was joined (very briefly) by Sean Dunne – Labour’s four candidates took 44% of the vote and took two of the four seats, the other two being taken by Fianna Fáil.

1981 saw the first election to a Dublin South-Central on its roughly its current boundaries. In 1989, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael took two seats each, but the last seat was taken by Eric Byrne of the Workers Party. This was the last election that Fine Gael was to take two seats here. 1989 also saw the death of Labour leader Frank Cluskey who had represented the constituency up until that year. It was the last time Fine Gael won two seats.

1992 saw a week-long recount with only five votes seperating Ben Briscoe of Fianna Fáil and Eric Byrne (now of Democratic Left) – Briscoe eventually prevailed. Byrne regained his seat in 1994 in the bye-election occasioned by the death of John O’Connell , but lost it again in 1997. He finally regained in 2011 as a Labour TD only to lose it again in 2016. Incidentally 1997 saw Brid Smith’s first electoral outing where she garnered 218 votes.

Below is the Poll-topper map from the earliest Dublin South-Central tallies I have in 2007.

Note how Fianna Fáil topped the poll in the working-class areas of the South-West Inner City, Crumlin and Kimmage. To the south-east Mary Upton topped the poll in Terenure, now in Dublin Bay South.

Fianna Fáil held two seats at each election until 2011 and haven’t regained a seat yet, although they were very close in 2016. Labour took two in 2011 and lost both in 2016. Aengus O’Snodaigh of Sinn Féin first won a seat in 2002, but only held on by 69 votes from Eric Byrne in 2007.

OVERVIEW

A single DED – Kimmage C which contains Harold’s Cross – will be transferred to Dublin South-Central.

RECENT CONSTITUENCY RESULTS

For a constituency which for three decades had returned only Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the second decade of the 21st century was one of tumultuous change. In 2011, Cork South-West returned no Fianna Fáil TD for the first in the history of the constituency and its predecessor. It also returned the first Labour TD in thirty years. All three seats were won by Fine Gael and Labour candidates – in 2020 those parties took no seats.

The following table gives the result of every election in Dublin South-East and Dublin Bay South since 1997.

YEAR	SEATS	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Labour	Sinn Féin	Green	Left	Others	Inds.
1997	4	34.4% 2	25.0% 1	10.4% 1	4.8%	3.9%	2.0%**	16.5%*	2.8%
1999	1***	30.1%	20.1%	28.0% 1	8.4%	6.3%	2.8%**	2.5%*	1.9%
2002	4	34.3% 2	17.0% 1	19.7% 1	12.7% 1	5.2%	3.3%**	3.1%*	4.7%
2007	4	33.1% 2	14.4% 1	21.1% 1	10.2% 1	5.8%	4.9%**	2.2%*	8.3%
2011	4	9.5%	23.4% 1	35.4% 2	13.4% 1	2.0%	12.9% 1**	0.5%*	3.2%
2016	4	12.7%	14.3% 1	7.7%	23.3% 1	3.3%	24.7% 2	8.8%**	5.4%
2020	4	11.0%	11.7% 1	4.8%	39.3% 1	9.3% 1	17.5% 2	5.2%**	1.1%

NOTES:
* Votes for Others includes…. 1997 – Democratic Left 11.3% Progressive Democrat 5.0% Natural Law Party 0.2%, 1999 – Christian Solidarity Party 2.0% Natural Law Party 0.5%, 2002- Progressive Democrats 3.1%, 2007 – Progressive Democrats 1.9% Christian Solidarity 0.3%, 2011 – Christian Solidarity Party 0.5%, 2016 – Social Democrats 5.7%, Renua 2.1%, Direct Democracy 1.0%, 2020 – Social Democrats 3.7%, National Party 1.5%
** Votes for Left Parties includes…. 1997 – Socialist Party 0.8%, Workers Party 0.7% Socialist Workers Party 0.5%, 1999 – Workers Party 2.8%, 2002 Workers Party 1.9%, Socialist Workers Party 1.4%, 2007 – People Before Profit 4.4%, Workers Party 0.5%, 2011 – People Before Profit 12.9%, 2016 – Independents 4 Change 14.5% Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 10.2%, 2020 – Solidarity – People Before Profit 11.0% Independents 4 Change 6.5%
*** 1999 was a by-election owing to the death of Pat Upton (R.I.P.) of the Labour Party

THE 2020 ELECTION

The one seat change in 2020 was the Green’s Patrick Costello ousting Fine Gael veteran Catherine Byrne – however the turnaround in voting numbers was far more dramatic.

The Sinn Féin jumped by 16 points to 39% – just under two quotas. Unfortunately for Sinn Féin, they only had one candidate, incumbent TD Aengus O’Snodaigh. This was very fortunate indeed for Independents 4 Change TD Joan Collins who saw her vote fall by more than half and retained her seat purely due to the grace and favour of Sinn Féin transfers.

Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fáil missed out on election by a very narrow margin (25 votes) in 2016; this time she didn’t make it to the last count albeit again by a very narrow margin (180 votes). Her votes might have been expected to carry Catherine Byrne of Fine Gael above Joan Collins but they failed to transfer in sufficient numbers. Would Byrne’s transfers have carried Ardagh ahead of Collins if the roles had been reversed? Hard to say, though the gap would have likely been smaller.

Below you can see the top-polling candidates per area in the election – areas south of the White Line are going into Dublin South-West next time.

It is interesting to compare the above map with that from 2007. Where Fine Gael were poll-toppers in that year, the Greens seem to have topped the poll in 2020. Fine Gael did top the poll in Chapelizod and the narrow strip of the Phoenix Park Electoral Division that runs south of the River Liffey.

It’s worth having a look at a breakdown of the vote in the three Electoral Areas that make up Dublin Bay South – Ballyfermot-Drimnagh contains Walkinstown, Chapelizod and Inchicore as well as Ballyfermot and Drimnagh, South-West Inner City contains all of the Inner City to the west of Clanbrassil Street and north of the Grand Canal as well as Kilmainham and Islandbridge, the part of Kimmage-Rathmines in Dublin South-Central includes Crumlin and Kimmage, while the small part of the Rathfarnham-Templeogue Electoral Area (which lies in the South Dublin Council area)

ELECTORAL AREA	F.F.	F.G.	S.F.	Grns	I4C	Sol.-P.B.P.	Others	Ind.	Votes%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	9%	8%	50%	5%	6%	14%	5%	3%	42%
South-West Inner City	9%	14%	31%	15%	4%	12%	14%	1%	24%
Kimmage-Rathmines (pt.)	10%	8%	41%	8%	13%	10%	9%	0%	21%
Rathfarnham-Templeogue (pt.)	24%	25%	14%	14%	4%	6%	13%	0%	12%

In terms of elected candidate geographical placements, two (O’Snodaigh and Smith) were the Ballyfermot area, one (Costello) was from the South-West Inner City and finally Collins was from the Kimmage-Rathmines area – runner-up Catherine Byrne was from the South-West Inner City area,

Both the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates polled markedly better in the mainly middle-class Rathfarnham-Templeogue area which will be in Dublin South-West next time. South-West Inner City also has a sizeable middle-class population, but it is younger and less likely to be house-owning than the population of Rathfarnham-Templeogue and probably more predisposed to moderate centre-left candidates who took nearly 30% of the vote in that area.

Interestingly, in the 2024 Local Elections, the top three candidates on the first count were all from Centre-Left parties – the Green Party, Labour and Social Democrats.

Below are the support maps of the four candidates elected.

I’ve used the same scale for all candidates which is a bit of a challenge as O’Snodaigh got 39% and Collins only 6%. In O’Snodaigh’s case, he took two-thirds of the vote in Greater Ballyfermot (three-quarters in the center of the suburb) which can’t be properly represented here. (Brid Smith took a creditable 16%, followed by Catherine Ardagh on 5%). He also polled well in Crumlin and the South West Inner-City except the area adjoining the canal.

The Green vote reached over 20% in the area enclosed by Clanbrassil Street, the South Circular Road and the R110 and also in the Islandbridge/Kilmainham area.

The following map shows the Combined vote for the Centre-Left candidates – Green, Social Democrat and Green. They took just over 40% in the Warrenmount area near Clanbrassil street, and also in the area around the Irish Museum of Modern Art near Ushers’ Quay.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Below I’ve looked at the differing votes per area dependent on the percentage of Middle-Class households (those with an Employer, Managerial or Professional chief bread-winner) per District Electoral Division.

For the 2020 and 2021 results I have used the relevant 2016 census data, for the 1997 results I’ve used 2006 census data (which is the earliest I have). I didn’t use 2022 census data as for 2022 there was a restructuring of the definitions of socio-economic categories which makes it difficult to compare with data from previous censuses.

AREA TYPE	F.F.	F.G.	S.F.	Grns	I4C	Sol.-P.B.P.	Others	Ind.	Votes%
< 33% Middle-Class	9%	9%	46%	7%	8%	12%	8%	7%	76%
33%-50% Middle-Class	13%	16%	24%	17%	4%	10%	16%	6%	15%
> 50% Middle-Class	20%	27%	13%	18%	1%	7%	15%	5%	10%

A few things to note from the table above:

• Brid Smith (Solidarity – People Before Profit) polled much better relatively speaking than Joan Collins (Independents Before Change) in strongly middle-class areas. Why precisely that was I don’t know, though perhaps Brid Smith’s increased media profile could possibly be a factor.
• The “Civil War” parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) did worst in the least middle-class areas and best in the most middle-class areas. The Left-wing parties (Sinn Féin, Independents 4 Change, Solidarity-People Before Profit) did exactly the opposite. The Centre-Left parties (Greens, Labour, Social Democrats) did worst in the least middle-class areas, but polled equally well in the most middle-class areas as well as more socially mixed areas.

Below is a SapMap of Dublin South-Central showing the percentage of EMP (Employer, Managerial and Professional) Households per area – the areas in red are below average with darkest red below 5%, and those in blue above average with darkest blue above 35%. I’m using the 2022 Census data which has a more conservative definition of what breadwinner occupations lie within the definition of E.M.P. households.

Areas south of the red line are going into Dublin South-West – areas east of the green line are coming in from Dublin Bay South.

Just out of interest, I also had a look at the 2007 results (using the 2006 census)

AREA TYPE	F.F.	F.G.	Labour	S.F.	Greens	S.W.P.	Others	Ind.	Proportion
< 33% Middle-Class	33%	12%	20%	13%	4%	6%	1%	10%	70%
33%-50% Middle-Class	32%	20%	23%	8%	10%	1%	3%	8%	21%
> 50% Middle-Class	36%	20%	21%	2%	7%	0%	6%	7%	9%

As can be seen clearly, the voting patterns were not as aggressively class-based as they were in 2020. Fianna Fáil and Labour had cross-class voting profiles, Fine Gael did better outside working-class areas and, the Greens did best in the “middling” parts of the constituency.

TRANSFERS

Below are details of the main transfers during the 2020 count.

CNT	PTY	F.F.	F.G.	Greens.	Sol.-P.B.P.	I.F.C.	Oth/Ind.	NT	Total
2	S.F.	231 (3%)	114 (1%)	408 (5%)	4,794 (57%)	1,747 (21%)	1,052 (13%)		8.356
3	Sol.-P.B.P.	17 (2%)	10 (1%)	73 (8%)		498 (56%)	290 (33%)		888
5	Lab./S.D.	414 (9%)	513 (11%)	2,219 (48%)		1,102 (24%)		344 (7%)	4,592
6	F.F.		1,647 (29%)	1,665 (30%)		1,153 (21%)		1,133 (20%)	5,598

*Oth/Ind. is mainly Labour and the Social Democrats.

On the second count, 78% of Sinn Féin transfers went to Brid Smith (Solidarity-People Before Profit) and Joan Collins (Independents 4 Change), and a further 12% went to the three centre-left parties. Clearly Sinn Féin voters heeded the party’s entreaty to “Vote Left”.

On the third count, 57% of Brid Smith’s surplus (which would have consisted entirely of Sinn Féin number ones) went to Joan Collins and a further 23% went to the centre-left parties.

Nearly half (48%) of the combined Labour/Social Democrat transfer went to Patrick Costello (Greens), leapfrogging him over Catherine Ardagh (Fianna Fáil), Catherine Byrne (Fine Gael) and Joan Collins.

Ardagh started off 296 votes behind Byrne – the Sinn Féin and People Before Profit surpluses narrowed that gap to 172, and then the elimination of the National Party and various Independents narrowed it further to 91. However, the joint Labour/Social Democrats transfer widened it again to 180, which resulted in Ardagh being eliminated.

Nearly three quarters of the joint Social Democrats/Solidarity-People Before Profit transfer went left, but the Labour transfer on the final count went two-to-one to Fine Gael over Sinn Féin.

The Fianna Fáil transfers broke fairly widely, with a surprising amount (21%) going to Joan Collins. A further 20% were non-transferable.

THE CONSTITUENCY REDRAW

The Constituency Commission recommended that Harold’s Cross be moved from Dublin Bay South to Dublin South Central and that the three DEDs in Rathfarnham-Templeogue be moved into Dublin South-West. On paper, this should help parties of the Left , particularly Sinn Féin.

AREA	F.F.	F.G.	S.F.	Grns	I4C	Sol.-P.B.P.	Others	Ind.
Dublin SC 2020	11%	11%	39%	9%	7%	11%	10%	1%
From Dublin BS	11%	16%	29%	19%		4%	17%	4%
To Dublin SW	24%	26%	14%	14%	1%	9%	13%	0%
Dublin SC 2024	9%	10%	42%	9%	7%	11%	10%	1%

The sum total of the changes in Dublin South-Central – would on a strict interpretation of the 2020 tallies – result in a 3 point gain for Sinn Féin and a 3 point loss collectively for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Which – on the 2020 patterns – would see a wider gap on the final count between the Green Party and Fine Gael.

However, two things should be considered :

• Transfer rates between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are likely to be significantly higher this time. Whether this would offset the disadvantage of the FG/FF losses due to the boundary changes is questionable.
• The Green Party had a pretty good local elections in Dublin South-Central. They topped the poll in South-West Inner City and – more surprisingly – held their seat in mainly working-class Ballyfermot-Drimnagh. Could that mean that their losses will be muted in Dublin South-Central?

HISTORY

The current Dublin Bay South was first contested in 2016, but the (general) area it covered was first contested under the moniker Dublin Townships in 1937 after the areas Pembroke, Rathmines and Rathgar were transferred from Dublin County to Dublin City. The new constituency covered the aforementioned areas but not the south-east Inner City. In the four elections held in the three-seat Dublin Townships, it was very much a straight contest between between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, with Fine Gael taking two of the three seats in 1937 and 1938, and Fianna Fáil two of the three in 1943 and 1944. The one exception was in 1937 when an Independent Maud Walsh came within 119 votes of taking a seat from Fine Gael. Both Sean McEntee and John A Costello were TDs for the area.

Dublin South-East was first contested in 1948 on roughly similar boundaries to Dublin Townships but a major change to its representation with Noel Browne taking a seat for Clann na Poblachta at the expense of Michael Yeats (son of W.B.). Interestingly, Labour had an aristocratic candidate – The Countess of Wicklow polled 8% of the vote on their behalf. All three incumbents (Costello, Browne, McEntee) were returned on the first count in 1951, though Browne was now an Independent. In 1954 he ran under the Fianna Fáil banner but lost his seat as Fine Gael took over half the vote and two of the three seats. Vincent McDowell – father of future Green MEP Nuala Ahern – ran for Labour in this election.

1957 saw Noel Browne return to the Dail this time as an Independent; by 1961 he was representing the left-wing National Progressive Democrats in the Dail. He lost his seat running for Labour in 1965, but regained it in 1969 which was the first year the South-east Inner city was included in the constituency. It was also the first year Garret FitzGerald won a seat for Fine Gael. 1973 saw Ruairi Quinn’s first electoral outing, but he was unable to prevent Fine Gael taking two ouf three seats. In 1977 however he took a seat due to poor Fine Gael vote management, before losing it again in 1981.

1981 was the first election contested on what were broadly the modern boundaries of Dublin South-East and then Bay South. It was also the last time Fianna Fáil took two of the four seats, losing Sean Moore’s seat to Ruairi Quinn against the run of play in February 1982. 1987 saw Michael McDowell of the Progressive Democrats eat directly into the Fine Gael vote to take a seat, only to lose it ignominiously in 1989 – outpolled by John Gormley of the Greens who polled a respectable 10% on this occasion. He regained it in 1992, only to lose it again to John Gormley by 27 votes in 1997.

Above you can see the largest parties in Dublin South-East in 1997 – incidentally the earliest tally I have for any Dublin constituency. Note how Fianna Fáil and Labour topped the poll in the more working-class North while Fine Gael were dominant in the South.

They both won seats in 2002, only for Gormley to best McDowell in the “Rumble in Ranelagh” in 2007. 2002 was also Fine Gael’s annus horribilis, and the unthinkable happened in Dublin South-East with Fine Gael failing to take a single seat. 2011 saw another remarkable result, with Fine Gael and Labour both taking two seats. Defeated Fianna Fáil TD Chris Andrews later defected to Sinn Féin.

Daithi Doolan of Sinn Féin took 7.4% of the vote in 2002 in the party’s first runout in the constituency, but their vote declined in the next two elections despite the party’s gradual growth elsewhere.

2016 saw the creation of Dublin Bay South which included the entirety of the old Dublin South-East plus Terenure and Harolds Cross. It also saw Labour lose both their seats to Fianna Fáil and the Greens. Former Fine Gael TD Lucinda Creighton ran under the Renua banner, only to be bested by Fine Gael newcomer Kate O’Connell.

2020 saw further change with Chris Andrews (now Sinn Féin) taking a seat at the expense of Kate O’Connell of Fine Gael. In 2021 Ivana Bacik of Labour won the by-election caused by the resignation of Eoghan Murphy from the Dáil.

Continue reading The New Constituencies : Dublin Bay South →