CAVAN-MONAGHAN (5 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||||
| 21/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1* |
MATT CARTHY TD (SF) at 1/100 is priced by the bookies as a certainty, while they are also confident about the chances of his colleague PAULINE TULLY TD (SF) and Fine Gael’s Monaghan candidate Cllr DAVID MAXWELL at 1/5.
After that things get tricky. If the odds are to be believed no less than five candidates are in the running for the last two seats – BRENDAN SMITH TD of Fianna Fáil (8/11), Cllr SHANE P O’REILLY of Independent Ireland (4/5), Sen ROBBIE GALLAGHER (1/1) of Fianna Fáil, NIAMH SMYTH TD of Fianna Fáil (11/8) and Cllr SARAH O’REILLY (6/4) of Aontu.
Most Surprisingly – given that Fine Gael were runner-up last time – Fine Gael’s Cllr T.P.O’REILLY and Cllr CARMEL BRADY are priced at very long odds (11/1 and 16/1)
Brendan Smith’s odds are eye-catching given that he is the only major candidate standing from West Cavan.
DONEGAL (5 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 21/11/2024 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
The odds suggest that sitting Sinn Féin TDs PEARSE DOHERTY (1/200) and PADRAIG MacLOCHLAINN (1/16) are racing certainties. For the remaining three seats, there are less confident pricings for PAT GALLAGHER (FF – 1/3), CHARLIE McCONALOGUE TD (FF – 4/11) and THOMAS PRINGLE TD (IND – 1/2).
Charles Ward (100% REDRESS) closely follows them at 1/2. The Fine Gael candidates are both at 6/1, which suggests the Fine Gael seat is in big trouble.
The pricings are broadly in line with the findings of the TG4 poll on Tuesday.
GALWAY EAST (4 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 21/11/2024 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Both Independent SEAN CANNEY TD (1/12) and Cllr ALBERT DOLAN (FF – 1/6) are long odds on for seats. Third and Fourth in the odds are Fianna Fáil’s ANNE RABBITTE TD and Cllr PETE ROCHE of Fine Gael.
Portumna-based NIAMH MADDEN (FG) is also 4/6. Cllr LOUIS O’HARA of Sinn Féin who was narrowly defeated for the last seat in 2020 is 11/4.
The additions of areas from Roscommon-Galway might allow both Roche and Canney to get elected in the north of the constituency, Dolan in the centre and a contest between Madden and Rabbitte in the east.
GALWAY WEST (5 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 21/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
The odds suggest that sitting Independents TDs NOEL GREALISH and CATHERINE CONNOLLY are set for re-election at 1/8 and 1/5 respectively. However there are then six other candidates less than odds on – GRAINNE SEOIGE and JOHN CONNOLLY of Fianna Fáil, HILDEGARDE NAUGHTON and SEAN KYNE of Fine Gael, MAIREAD FARRELL of Sinn Féin and NOEL THOMAS of Independent Ireland.
Seoige, Thomas and Kyne will be contesting for the one likely Connemara seat, while John Connolly, Naughton and Farrell will be contesting for seats in the City.
MAYO (5 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 21/11/2024 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
ALAN DILLON TD (FG) didn’t poll that impressively last time, but he’s priced at an unbackable 1/100. Also strongly favoured to return is ROSE CONWAY-WALSH TD (SF) at 1/7.
Also odds-on are DARA CALLEARY TD (FF – 2/7), Sen LISA CHAMBERS (FF – 2/5) and Cllr MARK DUFFY (FG – 2/5). Cllr PATSY O’BRIEN (IND – 5/2) and Cllr PAUL LAWLESS (AON – 11/2) are both from the east of the county and both polled 7% in the recent TG4 poll.
ROSCOMMON-GALWAY (3 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1* | 1 | |||||
| 21/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1* |
MICHAEL FITZMAURICE TD (II – 1/20), CLAIRE KERRANE TD (SF – 1/10) and newcomer MARTIN DALY (FF – 1/6) are all priced to win. The nearest competition is former FF TD Eugene Murphy (IND – 5/2) and Sen AISLING DOLAN (FG – 3/1). Dolan has lost a significant amount of her Galway base since 2020 in the redraw.
SLIGO-LEITRIM (4 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 21/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1* | 1 |
MARIAN HARKIN TD (IND – 1/10) and FRANK FEIGHAN (FG – 1/8) are priced for victory. Also odds on are Cllr MICHAEL CLARKE (II, ex-FF – 1/5) and Leitrim-based MARTIN KENNY TD (1/3).
Next in the market are the Sligo Fianna Fail duo, former TD EAMON SCANLON (1/1) and Cllr EDEL McSHARRY (5/4) – taken collectively there is roughly a 2/5 chance of a seat.
CONNAUGHT-ULSTER (31 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 6 | |||
| 21/11/2024 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 3* | 5 |