CLARE (4 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 21/11/2024 | 2 | 2 |
According to the odds, CATHAL CROWE TD (FF – 1/8) is the only sure thing, with Sen TIMMY DOOLEY (FF – 2/5), LEONORA CAREY (FG – 4/9) and Cllr JOE COONEY (IND – 4/11) more cautiously priced.
They are followed by Cllr DONNA McGETTIGAN (SF – 1/1) and European Election candidate EDDIE PUNCH (II – 5/4). Independent TD VIOLET-ANNE WYNNE (formerly of Sinn Féin) is at 12/1.
Government Candidates take up the first four positions, but it’s hard to see at least one non-government being elected.
CORK EAST (4 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 21/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
According to the odds, JAMES O’CONNOR TD (FF – 1/14) is the only sure thing, with MARK STANTON (FG – 1/4), PAT BUCKLEY TD (FG – 1/3) and former FF Councillor WILLIAM O’LEARY (IND – 1/2) more cautiously priced.
Their main challengers are – according to the odds – Cllr DEIRDRE O’BRIEN (FF) who is the sister of former TD Kevin O’Keeffe, Cllr LIAM QUAIDE (SD) and Cllr NOEL HEGARTY (FG) who are all based at 2/1.
There is an effect an open seat in the seat in the Fermoy area in the north of the constituency which will be contested by O’Leary, O’Brien and Hegarty. Quaide is Midleton-based and has to contend with sitting Fianna Fáil and Sinn Fein TDs, as well as Mark Stanton attempting to succeed his father David Stanton.
CORK NORTH-CENTRAL (5 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 21/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
According to the odds, THOMAS GOULD TD (SF – 1/20) is the only sure thing, with COLM BURKE TD (FG – 2/7), PADRAIG O’SULLIVAN TD (FF – 1/3) and Cllr KEN O’FLYNN (IND – 1/3) more cautiously priced.
The last seat – according to the odds – is between Cllr JOE LYNCH (SF – 1/1F), MICK BARRY (SOLIDARITY – 5/4) and Cllr JOHN MAHER (LAB – 11/8). There are likely two left seats – whether Sinn Féin or Solidarity will take the second is hard to say and may depend on the national mood. Labour will need to raise their vote to Maher over the line.
CORK NORTH-WEST (3 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| 22/11/2024 | 2 | 1 |
Cork North West is regarded as the most predictable constituency in the country and the prices reflect that with TDs AINDRIAIS and MICHAEL MOYNIHAN of Fianna Fáil at 1/12 and 1/5 respectively and Cllr MICHAEL CREED of Fine Gael at 1/4. Cllr JOHN PAUL O’SHEA of Fine Gael is next at 4/7.
One price that stands out is BECKY KEALY of Aontu at 80/1. Kealy polled nearly four thousand votes in 2020, and narrowly lost out at the local elections.
CORK SOUTH-CENTRAL (5 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 22/11/2024 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
The Fianna Fáil duo MICHEAL MARTIN TD and Cllr SEAMUS McGRATH are long long odds on – in fact at 1/50 McGrath must be the shortest priced new candidate in the election. DONNCHADH O’LAOGHAIRE TD of Sinn Féin is also unbackable at 1/20.
For the final two seats, JERRY BUTTIMER (FG) and LAURA HARMON (LAB) are priced at 2/5, with SHANE O’CALLAGHAN (FG) and MICK FINN (IND) priced as the prime competitors.
I’m slightly sceptical about the strength of the Labour candidate in the betting, but at the same time they did win two seats in the local elections and their candidate is likely to benefit from Green and Social Democrat transfers.
CORK SOUTH-WEST (5 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1* | 1 | |||||
| 23/11/2024 | 1 | 1* | 1 |
Independent Ireland leader MICHAEL COLLINS heads the backing at an unbackable 1/50. Social Democrats Leader HOLLY CAIRNS is priced at 1/4.
For the last seat, poll-topping Clonakilty Fine Gael Councillor is priced at 3/10, putting him in direct competition with current Fianna Fáil TD Christopher O’Sullivan (1/1) who is also based in Clonakilty.
Tim Lombard (FG) who was narrowly beaten last time, is priced at 7/2.
KERRY (5 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 23/11/2024 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Kerry Prices are very conservative with MICHAEL HEALY-RAE TD, DANNY HEALY-RAE TD, PA DALY TD and NORMA FOLEY are all long odds-on. Cllr MICHAEL CAHILL (FF – 1/3) is the bookies’ choice to take the final seat. BILLY O’SHEA (FG) and LINDA GORDON-KELLEHER (FF) are also competitive in the betting.
LIMERICK CITY (5 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 23/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
WILLIE O’DEA TD (FF – 1/14) and KIERAN O’DONNELL (FG – 1/10) are both priced for a return to the Dáil. MAURICE QUINLIVAN (SF – 1/4) is next.
The last seat – on the odds – is between Cllr FRANKIE DALY (IND – 4/7), Limerick Mayoral candidate DEE RYAN (FF – 1/1) and Cllr CONOR SHEEHAN (LAB – 2/1)
LIMERICK COUNTY (5 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 23/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
No surprises here as the three sitting TDs PATRICK O’DONOVAN (FG – 1/50), NIALL COLLINS (FF – 1/10) and RICHARD O’DONOGHUE (II – 1/10).
Everyone other than JOANNE COLLINS (SF – 2/1) are long odds – she was unsuccessful in the local elections in June.
TIPPERARY NORTH (3 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 23/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
MICHAEL LOWRY TD (IND) is – surprise surprise – 1/200 in the betting. Cllr MICHAEL SMITH (FF) is 1/5 and ALAN KELLY TD (LAB) is 1/4; he will be competing with Cllr RYAN O’MEARA for supremacy in the western half of the constituency with Cllr RYAN O’MEARA (FF -5/6). Cllr JIM RYAN (IND) is 9/1 and all the rest are fancy prices.
TIPPERARY SOUTH (3 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| 23/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
MATTIE McGRATH TD (IND, ex-FF) is strongly odds-on. Next is Fine Gael Councillor MICHAEL MURPHY (FG – 1/4) who polled nearly two quotas in the Clonmel Electoral Area in 2024. The last seat according to the odds will be between Carrick-on-Suir poll-topper Cllr IMELDA GOLDSBORO (FF – 4/7), Cashel-Tipperary poll-topper Cllr JOHN O’HENEY (IND – 11/8) and former WUAG TD Seamus Healy (IND – 7/4).
Outgoing Sinn Féin TD Martin Browne is 8/1.
WATERFORD (4 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 23/11/2024 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
DAVID CULLINANE TD (SF-1/200) is unbackable. There are four odds-on candidates for the remaining three seats – MARY BUTLER TD (FF – 1/5), Sen JOHN CUMMINS (FG – 1/4), Cllr CONOR McGUINNESS (SF – 1/3) and MATT SHANAHAN TD (IND – 2/5).
MARC O’CATHASAIGH TD of the Green Party is 9/2.
McGuinness is the only one of the leading candidates from the west of the constituency which might help his cause.
MUNSTER (46 seats)
| TIME | FF | FG | SF | GP | LAB | LEFT | OTHERS | IND |
| GE 2020 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1* | 7 |
| 15/11/2024 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1* | 8 |