Category Archives: Uncategorized

Uncategorized

What the Electoral Commission might do : South-West Leinster

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In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.

Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.

However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.

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Poll Analysis, Uncategorized

The Poll Average on the 1st November 2022

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I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….

PARTY
VOTE
+/-
SEATS
+/-
SINN FEIN
36%
+11
67
+30
FINE GAEL
21%
 
34
-1
FIANNA FAIL
19%
-3
27
-11
GREENS
4%
-3
4
-8
LABOUR
5%
+1 
4
-2
Others
9%
 +1
11
-2
Inds
10%
-3
13
-6

 

CONTENTS

Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points

Continue reading The Poll Average on the 1st November 2022 →

Antrim, Northern Ireland, Uncategorized

Assembly 2022 – The South Antrim Vote

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Thankfully – I’ve managed to come into possession of Tallies for the South Antrim constituency in this year’s assembly election.  Given that tallies of any kind are as rare as the proverbial hen’s teeth this is quite a catch.

A few notes – these strictly aren’t tallies; they are samples. Only about one-fifth of the votes in each box were sampled. So accordingly there is a margin of error involved, which is why I’m rounding most percentages to the nearest five.

2022 Antrim Outline

Also, as you can see the Ward boundaries around Lough Neagh extend into the lake. Whether fish vote – and which side of the cultural and political divide they cleave to – is uncertain, but that is the way they are defined.

Anyway for the moment I’m simply going to do a quick Anatomy of the Vote – I will be adding further sections later.

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Uncategorized

The Poll Average on the 1st June 2022

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I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….

PARTY
VOTE
+/-
SEATS
+/-
SINN FEIN
36%
+11
66
+29
FINE GAEL
20%
-1 
38
+3
FIANNA FAIL
19%
-3
31
-7
GREENS
4%
-3
4
-8
LABOUR
4%
 
3
-3
Others
8%
 
8
-5
Inds
10%
-3
8
-11

 

CONTENTS

Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points

Continue reading The Poll Average on the 1st June 2022 →

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The Curious Case of The TUV In The Count-Time

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THE CURIOUS CASE OF THE TUV IN THE COUNT-TIME

It’s an open question as to whether God is man or a woman, but Jim Allister can be in little doubt that he or she is manifestly not a fan of Traditional Unionist Voice. The TUV took 7.5% of the assembly vote but only 1.1% of the assembly votes – quite possibly the most disproportional results a Proportional Representation system has delivered.

TABLE 1 : VOTES PER MLA

PARTY VOTES MLAs Votes per MLA
SF 250,388 27 9,273
DUP 184,002 25 7,360
Alliance 116,681 17 6,863
UUP 96,390 9 10,710
SDLP 78,237 9 9,780
TUV 65,788 1 65,788
PBP 9,796 1 9,796

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Uncategorized

Tallyriffic Northern Assembly Prediction

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Following countless hours of looking through polls, polls and more polls, Tallyriffic is going to make the following prediction….

PARTY
%
+/-
SEATS
+/-
SINN FEIN
26%
–2
26
-1
DEMOCRATIC UNIONISTS
19%
-9
21
-7
ALLIANCE
16%
+7
13
+5
ULSTER UNIONISTS
13%
—
11
+1
S.D.L.P.
10%
-2
9
-3
Other Unionists
8%
+3
6
+4
Others
8%
+2
4
+1

This would equate to an advance for the middle-ground (in the form of Alliance) although given their poll ratings they might hope for a few more seats over the 13. Sinn Féin would cede 2 seats, but emerge as the largest party (with all that entails) while the Social Democratic and Labour party would cede 3 seats, partially due to losing votes and partially due to being overtaken by Alliance who tend to transfer well to the SDLP. The Democratic Unionist Party would lose nearly a third of their vote and a quarter of their seats, with the main beneficiaries being Traditional Unionist Voice who seem poised to make a breakthrough. The Ulster Unionist Party remain grounded on 13% although they are forecast to make a seat gain.

Below I’m going to look at each of the counties (and Belfast) in turn….

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