The following workings are based on the preliminary results from the 2022 census.

I was originally going to work solely  on the basis of a 171 seat Dail – but based on Adrian Kavanagh’s post regarding what a Boundary Commission might be likely to do, I’m also going to include an analysis based on a 176 seat Dáil.

SCENARIO A – A 171 SEAT DAIL

Under Scenario A, County Kildare would be entitled to 8.24 seats – which is within the 5% deviation (7.6-8.4 seats) allowed from the National Average – provided of course both constituencies stay within that national average

Option 1 – Two Four Seaters

The easiest way to ensure that Kildare supports two four-seaters is to transfer seven District Electoral Divisions in the North-West of the constituency (with a population of 9,806 souls) into Kildare South.

This would be a predominantly rural area on the northern border of the Kildare portion of the Bog of Allen. The only town is Prosperous in the south-east of the area – it also contains the village of Johnstownbridge in the north-west.

TABLE 1 – THE NEW KILDARE NORTH (4 seats)

Candidates		2020 Result		Transferred to Kildare South		New Constituency
MURPHY	SD	9808	19.3%	515	13.0%	9293	19.8%
CRONIN	SF	8705	17.1%	831	21.0%	7874	16.8%
LAWLESS	FF	7029	13.8%	739	18.7%	6290	13.4%
O’Rourke	FF	6336	12.4%	415	10.5%	5921	12.6%
DURKAN	FG	5447	10.7%	550	13.9%	4897	10.4%
Martin	GP	5100	10.0%	303	7.6%	4797	10.2%
Lawlor	FG	3621	7.1%	269	6.8%	3352	7.1%
Stagg	LAB	2751	5.4%	161	4.0%	2590	5.5%
O’Riain	REN	967	1.9%	74	1.8%	893	1.9%
Mahon	SOL-PBP	861	1.7%	56	1.4%	805	1.7%
Monaghan	IND	197	0.4%	15	0.3%	182	0.4%
Swords	IND	123	0.2%	12	0.3%	111	0.2%

The highest poller in the excluded area would have been Reada Cronin of Sinn Fein on 21%, closely followed by James Lawless of Fianna Fail on 19% and then Fine Gael veteran Bernard Durkan on 14%. However, there would have no material alteration to the overall result – Lawless would have had his margin over his fellow Fianna Fáil TD Frank O’Rourke halved, but would have still pulled ahead on transfers.

The new 4-seat Kildare South would see not just the transfer of territory from Kildare North, but also – most likely – the return of Portarlington into Laois-Offaly or two separate three-seater constituencies.

Fianna Fáil benefit most from this scenario, with their support level at 14% in the Laois-Offaly areas likely to be reincorporated back into those counties, but at 29% in the areas likely to come in from Kildare North. Fine Gael would also similarly benefit albeit to a lesser degree.

By contrast, the Independent share of the vote would drop from 20% to 17% – this is almost entirely due to the loss of the Laois and Offaly boxes where Cathal Berry took two-fifths of the vote. This would have ramifications if this constituency was to contested as a four seater or as a three seater (if the Ceann Comhairle were to stand again).

TABLE 2 – THE NEW KILDARE SOUTH (4 seats)

Party	2020 Vote		Transferring to Laois, Offaly		Transferring from Kildare North		New Constituency
SF	10155	21.5%	1143	27.5%	831	21.1%	9843	20.9%
FG	8069	17.1%	359	8.6%	819	20.8%	8529	18.1%
FF	9507	20.1%	538	12.9%	1154	29.3%	10123	21.5%
IND	9358	19.8%	1745	41.9%	27	0.7%	7640	16.2%
SD	1338	2.8%	63	1.5%	515	13.1%	1790	3.8%
GP	1639	3.5%	91	2.2%	303	7.7%	1851	3.9%
LAB	5899	12.5%	108	2.6%	161	4.1%	5952	12.7%
AON	697	1.5%	69	1.7%	0	0.0%	628	1.3%
S-P	598	1.3%	47	1.1%	56	1.4%	607	1.3%
REN	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	74	1.9%	74	0.2%

On these figures as a three-seater you would have to say Fiona O’Loughlin of Fianna Fail would likely take the final seat rather than Cathal Berry; in 2020 the Fianna Fáil vote was 149 votes ahead of the Independent vote on the first count with Berry taking the final seat by 515 votes, in the revised constituency it would be nearly 2,500 votes ahead.

As a four seater, Fianna Fáil would have 1.06 quotas and therefore should be guaranteed a seat. Cathal Berry would instead be vulnerable to Mark Wall of Labour who was 157 votes ahead of him on the first count in 2020, but was 786 votes behind when eliminated on the 6th count. Wall only loses 108 votes due to the loss of the Laois and Offaly polling stations while Berry loses nearly seventeen hundred.

TABLE 3 – CONSTITUENCY STATISTICS

CONSTITUENCY	POPULATION	SEATS	DEVIATION
Kildare North	124548	4	+3.9%
Kildare South	122429	4	+2.2%

 

Option 2 – A Five seat Kildare North, A Three seat Kildare South

Kildare South could be reduced to a three-seater and Kildare North augmented to a five-seater. This would be achieved by moving much of the Bog of Allen area from the North-western border of Kildare South into Kildare North (a largely rural area containing the villages of Caragh, Robertstown and Derrinturn), as well as Ballymore Euatace south of Naas.  In all seventeen Electoral Divisions (Ballymore, Caragh, Carbury, Carrick, Cloncurry, Donore, Drehid, Killashee, Killinthomas, Kilmeague North, Kilmeague South, Kilpatrick, Kilrainy, Lullymore, Robertstown, Timahoe South and Windmill Cross) are involved with a total population of 19,672 souls.

The creation of the new Kildare South would see Portarlington and its hinterland return to Laois and Offaly as well as the transfer of much of the Bog of Allen into North Kildare.

TABLE 4 – THE NEW KILDARE SOUTH (3 seats)

Candidate	Party	2020 Vote		Transfer to Kildare North		Transfer to Laois, Offaly		New Constituency
RYAN	SF	10155	21.5%	1979	27.2%	1241	28.4%	6935	19.7%
HEYDON	FG	8069	17.1%	1558	21.8%	380	8.7%	6131	17.4%
O’Loughlin	FF	5927	12.5%	1338	18.4%	345	7.9%	4244	12.1%
Doyle	FF	3580	7.6%	484	6.7%	212	4.9%	2884	8.2%
McL-Healy	IND	3616	7.7%	384	5.3%	48	1.1%	3184	9.1%
Hayden	SD	1338	2.8%	295	4.1%	67	1.5%	976	2.8%
BERRY	IND	5742	12.1%	346	4.8%	1797	41.1%	3599	10.2%
Maher	GP	1639	3.5%	300	4.1%	116	2.7%	1223	3.5%
Wall	LAB	5899	12.5%	316	4.4%	92	2.1%	5491	15.6%
Mhic Gib	AON	697	1.5%	119	1.6%	72	1.6%	506	1.4%
Ui Bhroin	S-P	598	1.3%	121	1.7%	51	1.2%	426	1.2%

The main losers in this Scenario would be Patricia Ryan TD of Sinn Féin who loses almost 2,700 votes (due to high polls in both the Bog of Allen and Portarlington)  and Independent Cathal Berry TD who loses nearly 1500 votes (most of that being in the Portarlington area). Senator Fiona O’Loughlin also loses just over 1,600 votes which means she wouldn’t bridge the votes gap between herself and Cathal Berry on the last count in 2020. However, the bigger threat to Berry probably comes from Mark Wall of Labour who only loses just over 300 votes in this redraw which would have likely seen him staying ahead of Berry on the 6th count.

Another possibility of course is that the Ceann Comhairle elects to run again which would mean that only 2 seats would be contested. On these figures, it would be a four-way fight between Ryan, Heydon, Wall and O’Loughlin with Berry’s transfers quite likely pivotal

The new Kildare North would see Sinn Féin benefitting from strong support in the Bog of Allen, while the Social Democrats’ percentage of the vote would drop by a point.

TABLE 5 – THE NEW KILDARE NORTH  (5 seats)

Party	2020 Result		Transferred from Kil Sth		New Constituency
SD	9808	19.3%	295	4.1%	10103	17.4%
SF	8705	17.1%	1979	27.2%	10684	18.4%
FF	13365	26.2%	1822	25.1%	15187	26.1%
FG	9068	17.8%	1588	21.3%	10656	18.3%
GP	5100	10.0%	300	4.1%	5400	9.3%
LAB	2751	5.4%	316	4.3%	3067	5.3%
REN	967	1.9%		0.0%	967	1.8%
SOL-PBP	861	1.7%	121	1.7%	982	1.7%
IND	320	0.6%	730	10.0%	1050	1.8%
AON	0	0.0%	81	1.9%	81	0.1%

The extra seat in a 5 seat Kildare North would – on the above figures – have been hotly contested between Frank O’Rourke of Fianna Fáil and Senator Vincent Martin of the Greens.

TABLE 6 – CONSTITUENCY STATISTICS

CONSTITUENCY	POPULATION	SEATS	DEVIATION
Kildare North	154026	4	+3.4%
Kildare South	92951	3	+2.8%

Option 3 – A Three seat Kildare North, A Five seat Kildare South

The last option I’m going to look at – and the most unlikely one – is a truncated 3 seat Kildare North based on the towns close to the M4 motorway, and a 5 seat Kildare South taking in the rest of the county.

Kildare North would be transformed into a 3-seater by the removal of the whole Naas Electoral area into Kildare South.

TABLE 7 – THE NEW KILDARE NORTH  (3 seats)

Candidate	Party	2020 Result		Transferred to Kildare South		New Constituency
MURPHY	SD	9808	19.3%	1764	11.4%	8044	22.7%
CRONIN	SF	8705	17.1%	2546	16.4%	6159	17.4%
LAWLESS	FF	7029	13.8%	4189	27.0%	2840	8.0%
O’Rourke	FF	6336	12.4%	546	3.5%	5790	16.3%
DURKAN	FG	5447	10.7%	1219	7.9%	4228	11.9%
Martin	GP	5100	10.0%	2073	13.4%	3027	8.5%
Lawlor	FG	3621	7.1%	1969	12.7%	1652	4.7%
Stagg	LAB	2751	5.4%	558	3.6%	2193	6.2%
O’Riain	REN	967	1.9%	285	1.8%	682	1.9%
Mahon	S-P	861	1.7%	237	1.5%	624	1.8%
Monaghan	IND	197	0.4%	89	0.6%	108	0.3%
Swords	IND	123	0.2%	21	0.1%	102	0.3%

The first thing to note is that no party gets a quota – Fianna Fáil is on 24.6%, The Socials Democrats are on 22.7%, Sinn Féin on 17.4% and Fine Gael on 16.6%. However, crucially, Fine Gael’s 16.6% (which represents two-thirds of a quota) is split between two candidates which means that the likely result here would be a TD from each of the three main towns – Catherine Murphy from Leixlip, Reada Cronin from Maynooth and Frank O’Rourke from Celbridge.

The transfer of the Naas area into Kildare South – as well as the transfer of the Portarlington area out of it – radically changes the composition of the constituency.

TABLE 8 – THE NEW KILDARE SOUTH  (5 seats)

Party	2020 Vote		Transferred from Kildare North		Transferred to Laois-Offaly		New Constituency
SF	10155	21.5%	2546	16.4%	1241	28.1%	11460	19.6%
FG	8069	17.1%	3188	20.6%	380	8.6%	10877	18.6%
FF	9507	20.1%	4735	30.6%	557	12.6%	13685	23.5%
IND	9358	19.8%	110	0.7%	1845	41.7%	7623	13.1%
SD	1338	2.8%	1764	11.4%	67	1.5%	3035	5.2%
GP	1639	3.5%	2073	13.4%	116	2.6%	3596	6.2%
LAB	5899	12.5%	558	3.6%	92	2.1%	6365	10.9%
AON	697	1.5%	0	0.0%	72	1.6%	625	1.1%
S-P	598	1.3%	237	1.5%	51	1.2%	784	1.3%
REN	0	0.0%	285	1.8%	0	0.0%	285	0.5%

The most likely outcome of this constituency configuration would be 1 seat each for Sinn Féin, Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Labour with the last seat probably going to Independent TD Cathal Berry.

TABLE 9 – CONSTITUENCY STATISTICS

CONSTITUENCY	POPULATION	SEATS	DEVIATION
Kildare North	90555	3	+0.1%
Kildare South	156422	5	+4.4%

SCENARIO B – A 176 SEAT DAIL

A 176 seat Dail would see Kildare have enough population for 8.48 seats – too much for 8 seats and not enough for 9 seats. Both Carlow-Kilkenny and Wexford are in similar forms of mathematical limbo, having too much population for 5 seats and not enough for 6.

Accordingly, we will look three options :

• A small transfer of population from Wicklow (in the Blessington area) to Kildare, allowing Kildare host 9 seats and Wicklow 5.
• A more substantial transfer from Kildare (along the eastern border) into Wicklow, allowing Kildare host 8 seats, and Wicklow 6.
• A small transfer of population from South-east Kildare into Carlow, allowing Carlow and Kilkenny to host 6 seats and Kildare 8.

Option 1 – A five-seat Kildare North (including Blessington) and a four-seat Kildare South

This option would see four DEDs (Blessington, Burgage, Kilbride and Lackan – a total of 8,807 souls) transferred from the north-west of County Wicklow into Kildare North.  This makes good geographical sense as Blessington is directly connected to Naas by a regional road and is seperated from all the major towns of Wicklow by the Wicklow mountains. Besides the town of Blessington, the village of Manor Kilbride is also included.

The vote and tally figures for the prescribed constituency are shown below.

TABLE 10 –  THE NEW KILDARE NORTH  (5 seats)

Party	2020 Result		Transferred Area from Wicklow		New Constituency
SD	9808	19.3%	296	7.7%	10104	18.4%
SF	8705	17.1%	929	24.3%	9634	17.6%
FF	13365	26.2%	626	16.4%	13991	25.5%
FG	9068	17.8%	1229	32.1%	10297	18.8%
GP	5100	10.0%	281	7.3%	5381	9.8%
LAB	2751	5.4%	47	1.2%	2798	5.1%
REN	967	1.9%		0.0%	967	1.8%
SOL-PBP	861	1.7%	64	1.7%	925	1.7%
IND	320	0.6%	328	8.6%	648	1.2%
AON	0	0.0%	28	0.7%	28	0.1%

The effect of the transfer would – on the numbers – appear to benefit Fine Gael and Sinn Féin slightly, and to disadvantage Fianna Fáil and the Social Democrats slightly. However it should be noted the geographic proximity to Naas would likely be a factor in the event of the Blessington area being part of Kildare North at the next General Election.

On the raw figures, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats would all be guaranteed a seat. The last seat would be a closely-fought contest between Fianna Fáil and the Greens.

Kildare South would lose Portarlington and its southern hinterland to Laois and Offaly and remain a four seater.

TABLE 11 –  THE NEW KILDARE SOUTH  (4 seats)

Candidate	Party	2020 Vote		Transferred to Laois-Offaly		New Constituency
RYAN	SF	10155	21.5%	1241	28.1%	8914	20.8%
HEYDON	FG	8069	17.1%	380	8.6%	7689	17.9%
O’Loughlin	FF	5927	12.5%	345	7.8%	5582	13.0%
Doyle	FF	3580	7.6%	212	4.8%	3368	7.9%
McL-Healy	IND	3616	7.7%	48	1.1%	3568	8.3%
Hayden	SD	1338	2.8%	67	1.5%	1271	3.0%
BERRY	IND	5742	12.1%	1797	40.6%	3945	9.2%
Maher	GP	1639	3.5%	116	2.6%	1523	3.6%
Wall	LAB	5899	12.5%	92	2.1%	5807	13.6%
Mhic Gib	AON	697	1.5%	72	1.6%	625	1.5%
Ui Bhroin	S-P	598	1.3%	51	1.2%	547	1.3%

On these figures, Cathal Berry TD – if the Ceann Comhairle were to run again – wouldn’t have made it to the last count, given that he was 786 votes ahead of Mark Wall on the 6th count in 2020, but Wall is now nearly 1700 votes to the good with the departure of Portarlington and surrounding areas. Berry’s votes instead would determine whether Wall or Senator Fiona O’Loughlin would take the last seat.

In a four seat situation – in other words if the Ceann Comhairle were not to run – Senator Fiona O’Loughlin should be comfortably assured of a seat, with the last seat probably going to Senator Mark Wall.

TABLE 12 – CONSTITUENCY STATISTICS

CONSTITUENCY	POPULATION	SEATS	DEVIATION
Kildare North	143161	5	-1.6%
Kildare South	112623	4	-3.5%

Option 2 – A five-seat Kildare North and a three-seat Kildare South (ceding areas to Wicklow)

A more radical option would be the transfer of a significant part of East Kildare into Wicklow. It’s also a less likely option – which will doubtless be a source of not inconsiderable relief to several sitting TDs in Kildare and Wicklow.

That said – there is precedent for such a shifting of the boundaries. In 1992 and the the 1995 Wicklow by-election a similarly-shaped slice of East Kildare was in the Wicklow constituency.

A strip of east Kildare stretching down from Ballymore to Castledermot would move into a West Wicklow constituency – the area encompasses 20,123 souls, and has historically has been strong for Fine Gael.

In addition, Portarlington and its southern hinterland would move back over the county border – and there would have to be a transfer of about six thousand population (mainly in the Bog of Allen) to North Kildare to ensure both Kildare constituencies are within the permitted levels of variation.

TABLE 13 – THE NEW KILDARE SOUTH (3 seats)

Candidate	Party	2020 Vote		Transferred to Laois, Offaly		Transferred to Wicklow		Transferred to K North		New Constituency
RYAN	SF	10155	21.5%	1241	28.1%	1546	17.5%	626	29.5%	6742	21.2%
HEYDON	FG	8069	17.1%	380	8.6%	2571	29.0%	435	20.5%	4683	14.7%
O’Loughlin	FF	5927	12.5%	345	7.8%	947	10.7%	385	18.2%	4250	13.3%
Doyle	FF	3580	7.6%	212	4.8%	582	6.6%	176	8.3%	2610	8.2%
McL-Healy	IND	3616	7.7%	48	1.1%	437	4.9%	71	3.3%	3060	9.6%
Hayden	SD	1338	2.8%	67	1.5%	262	3.0%	132	6.2%	877	2.8%
BERRY	IND	5742	12.1%	1797	40.6%	764	8.6%	91	4.3%	3090	9.7%
Maher	GP	1639	3.5%	116	2.6%	351	4.0%	73	3.4%	1099	3.4%
Wall	LAB	5899	12.5%	92	2.1%	1096	12.4%	60	2.8%	4651	14.6%
Mhic Gib	AON	697	1.5%	72	1.6%	146	1.6%	36	1.7%	443	1.4%
Ui Bhroin	S-P	598	1.3%	51	1.2%	150	1.7%	36	1.7%	361	1.1%

(It should be noted that Berry’s actual total may be be several hundred votes lower as a large number of the postal votes in South Kildare are based in Ballysax East which contains the Curragh Camp and surrounding areas – Berry took nearly 600 postal votes, two-thirds of the total)

The figures above would suggest Patricia Ryan TD would be comfortably safe and that Senator Fiona O’Loughlin could be cautiously confident of taking the second seat. It could be a close call between Martin Heydon TD and Senator Jack Wall for the final seat with Cathal Berry TD’s transfers possibly being decisive.

TABLE 14 – THE NEW KILDARE NORTH (5 seats)

Party	2020 Result		Transferred from Kil Sth		New Constituency
SD	9808	19.3%	132	6.2%	9940	18.7%
SF	8705	17.1%	626	29.6%	9331	17.6%
FF	13365	26.2%	561	26.5%	13926	26.2%
FG	9068	17.8%	435	20.5%	9503	17.9%
GP	5100	10.0%	73	3.4%	5173	9.7%
LAB	2751	5.4%	60	2.8%	2811	5.3%
REN	967	1.9%		0.0%	967	1.8%
SOL-P	861	1.7%	38	1.8%	899	1.7%
IND	320	0.6%	162	7.7%	482	0.9%
AON	0	0.0%	30	1.4%	30	0.1%

In Kildare North, the transfer of much of the Bog of Allen would have given Sinn Féin a minor boost, but otherwise wouldn’t have much changed the arithmetic.

TABLE 15 – CONSTITUENCY STATISTICS

CONSTITUENCY	POPULATION	SEATS	DEVIATION
Kildare North	141109	5	-3.2%
Kildare South	85931	3	-1.7%

Option 3 – A five-seat Kildare North and a three-seat Kildare South (ceding areas to Carlow)

An injection of population from South Kildare into Carlow would allow Carlow-Kilkenny to be split into two three-seaters.

Eleven DEDs – Ballaghmoon, Ballitore, Belan, Carrigeen, Castledermot, Dunmanogue, Graney, Grangemellon, Johnstown, Kilkea and Moone – clustered around the M9 corridor would see a transfer of 7,308 souls to Carlow. Fine Gael are strongest to the east of the M9, Labour to the west, and Sinn Féin polled well in Castledermot.

Furthermore eleven DEDs – Carbury, Carrick, Drehid, Kilmeague North, Kilmeague South, Kilpatrick, Kilrainy, Lullymore, Robertstown, Timahoe South and Windmill Cross – totalling a perfect square 14,101 souls would be transferred to Kildare North.

TABLE 16 – THE NEW KILDARE SOUTH (3 seats)

Candida6e	Party	2020 Vote		Transfer to Laois, Offaly		Transfer to Carlow		Transfer to Kildare Nth		New Constituency
RYAN	SF	10155	21.5%	1241	28.1%	669	21.3%	1577	32.9%	6668	20.9%
HEYDON	FG	8069	17.1%	380	8.6%	782	25.0%	861	18.0%	6046	19.0%
O’Loughlin	FF	5927	12.5%	345	7.8%	262	8.4%	870	18.2%	4450	14.0%
Doyle	FF	3580	7.6%	212	4.8%	240	7.7%	340	7.1%	2788	8.7%
McL-Healy	IND	3616	7.7%	48	1.1%	50	1.6%	212	4.4%	3306	10.4%
Hayden	SD	1338	2.8%	67	1.5%	81	2.6%	215	4.5%	975	3.1%
BERRY	IND	5742	12.1%	1797	40.6%	114	3.6%	246	5.1%	3585	11.3%
Maher	GP	1639	3.5%	116	2.6%	78	2.5%	146	3.0%	1299	4.1%
Wall	LAB	5899	12.5%	92	2.1%	763	24.3%	172	3.6%	4872	15.3%
Mhic Gib	AON	697	1.5%	72	1.6%	49	1.6%	71	1.5%	505	1.6%
Ui Bhroin	S-P	598	1.3%	51	1.2%	46	1.5%	79	1.6%	422	1.3%

The map of the new constituency – which might be more reasonably called Mid-Kildare – reflects the traditional biases of the areas within it. Fine Gael have always been strong in the good farming land in the Wicklow mountain foothills in east Kildare, Labour have traditionally been strong in Athy and surrounding areas, while Fianna Fáil were traditionally well-supported in West Kildare.

If the 2020 vote were to be run again on these figures…. it would be very close between Senator Mark Wall, Senator Fiona O’Loughlin and Cathal Berry TD for the final seat.

If however the Ceann Comhairle were not to run again, it’d be reasonable to assume that Martin Heydon TD, Patricia Ryan TD and Senator Fiona  O’Loughlin would all take seats, with the final seat being decided between Cathal Berry and Mark Wall.

TABLE 17 – THE NEW KILDARE NORTH (5 seats)

Party	2020 vote		Transfer from Kildare South		New Constituency
SD	9808	19.3%	215	4.5%	10023	18.0%
SF	8705	17.1%	1577	33.3%	10282	18.5%
FF	13365	26.2%	1210	25.6%	14575	26.2%
FG	9068	17.8%	861	18.2%	9929	17.8%
GP	5100	10.0%	146	3.1%	5246	9.4%
LAB	2751	5.4%	172	3.6%	2923	5.2%
REN	967	1.9%		0.0%	967	1.7%
S-P	861	1.7%	49	1.0%	910	1.6%
IND	320	0.6%	458	9.7%	778	1.4%
AON	0	0.0%	46	1.0%	46	0.1%

The transfer of much of the Bog of Allen into Kildare would – on paper – aid Sinn Féin and slightly damage the Social Democrat vote. The race for the final seat would likely be between Fianna Fáil and the Greens.

TABLE 18 – CONSTITUENCY STATISTICS

CONSTITUENCY	POPULATION	SEATS	DEVIATION
Kildare North	148455	4	+1.8%
Kildare South	91214	4	+4.4%