The current Poll Average in the US Presidential Election shows Biden nearly 7% ahead of Trump. An election held on these figures would suggest that Biden would take 337 votes and Trump 201.
The following states and districts which Trump won last time would flip to Biden : Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Arizona and Nebraska 2nd.
A big caveat is that Trump remains competitive in all of the states listed above (ie he’s less than 5% behind Biden) so theoretically he could win the Electoral Vote despiting losing the Popular Vote by 2 or 3%.
| STATE | ECVs | 2016 VOTE | 25th August | SWING |
| OVERALL | — | CLINTON +2% | BIDEN +7% | BIDEN +2½% |
| Iowa | 6 | TRUMP +9½% | TRUMP +2% | BIDEN +3½% |
| Texas | 38 | TRUMP +9% | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +4% |
| Ohio | 18 | TRUMP +8% | BIDEN +½% | BIDEN +4½% |
| Georgia | 16 | TRUMP +5% | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +2% |
| North Carolina | 15 | TRUMP +3½% | TRUMP +1½% | BIDEN +1% |
| Arizona | 11 | TRUMP +3½% | BIDEN +½% | BIDEN +2% |
| Nebraska #2 | 1 | TRUMP +2% | BIDEN +2½% | BIDEN +2½% |
| Florida | 29 | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +2% | BIDEN +1½% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +2½% | BIDEN +1½% |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | TRUMP +½% | BIDEN +3% | BIDEN +2% |
| Michigan | 16 | TRUMP +<½% | BIDEN +2½% | BIDEN +1½% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | CLINTON +½% | BIDEN +5% | BIDEN +2½% |
| Minnesota | 10 | CLINTON +1½% | BIDEN +3½% | BIDEN +1% |
| Nevada | 10 | CLINTON +1½% | BIDEN +6% | BIDEN +2½% |
| Maine | 10 | CLINTON +3½% | BIDEN +11% | BIDEN +4% |
| Maine | 10 | CLINTON +5% | BIDEN +9½% | BIDEN +2½% |