The current Poll Average in the US Presidential Election shows Biden nearly 8% ahead of Trump – this is an increase of 1% over a week. An election held on these figures would suggest that Biden would take 352 votes and Trump 186 – this represents North Carolina’s 15 Electoral College votes moving into Biden’s camp.

The following states and districts which Trump won last time would flip to Biden : Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Arizona and Nebraska 2nd.

A big caveat is that Trump remains competitive in most of the states listed above (ie he’s less than 5% behind Biden) so theoretically he could win the Electoral Vote despite losing the Popular Vote by 2 or 3%.

STATE	ECVs	2016 VOTE	1st September	SWING
OVERALL	—	CLINTON +2%	BIDEN +7.5%	BIDEN +3%
Iowa	6	TRUMP +9½%	TRUMP +1%	BIDEN +4%
Texas	38	TRUMP +9%	TRUMP +½%	BIDEN +4½%
Ohio	18	TRUMP +8%	BIDEN -1½%	BIDEN +5%
Georgia	16	TRUMP +5%	TRUMP +2½%	BIDEN +1½%
North Carolina	15	TRUMP +3½%	BIDEN +2½%	BIDEN +3%
Arizona	11	TRUMP +3½%	BIDEN +6%	BIDEN +4½%
Florida	29	TRUMP +1%	BIDEN +3½%	BIDEN +2½%
Wisconsin	10	TRUMP +1%	BIDEN +4½%	BIDEN +2½%
Pennsylvania	20	TRUMP +½%	BIDEN +4%	BIDEN +2.5%
Michigan	16	TRUMP +<½%	BIDEN +3½%	BIDEN +2%
New Hampshire	4	CLINTON +½%	BIDEN +6%	BIDEN +3%
Minnesota	10	CLINTON +1½%	BIDEN +4½%	BIDEN +1½%
Maine	10	CLINTON +3½%	BIDEN +12%	BIDEN +4½%

In North Carolina, Biden has re-opened a narrow lead over Trump. He maintains a similarly narrow lead in Pennsylvania and Florida.

Amongst the Income groups Biden performs best with the poorest and wealthiest sectors of the American Electorate, enjoying a 16 point lead amongst the those earning less than €50,000 per year and those earning over €100,000 a year.

It is interesting that Biden’s advantage amongst the poorer voters has remained relatively constant, while his advantage amongst wealthier voters has deepened since mid-July.

The race is much closer amongst middle-income earners.