Meath East becomes a four-seater with the return of the areas in North Meath which were previously in Cavan-Monaghan as well as the Bettystown-Laytown area which was previously in Louth.
Meath East was first contested in 2007, when it returned two Fianna Fáil TDs and one Fine Gael TD. In 2011, both Labour and Fine Gael made gains at the expense of Fianna Fáil. Fianna Fáil regained a seat from Labour in 2016, while Sinn Féin gained a seat from Fine Gael in 2020.
The constituency consists of the easternmost and northernmost parts of Meath. In the south-east lie the towns of Ratoath and Dunboyne, former villages which experienced recent rapid growth; Ashbourne nearby lies on the Dublin border and also experienced rapid growth. In the north-east the towns of Bettystown and Laytown lie along the Irish sea coast, while the ancient town of Kells is in the far west of the constituency.
THE BIGGEST PARTIES PER DED IN 2020
Fine Gael dominate the north of the constituency – however the rural areas coming in from Cavan-Monaghan saw Sinn Féin topping the poll, In 2016, Fine Gael took 42% in these boxes, Fianna Fáil 35% and Sinn Féin 17%.
The town of Kells and its hinterland was traditionally a bastion of Fianna Fáil support, but in 2020 the party finished behind both Fine Gael and Sinn Féin. Further south, Independent councillor Joe Bonner has a strong base of support in his native Ashbourne, while fellow Independent – and formerly of Fianna Fáil -Senator Sharon Keogan topped the poll in Duleek.
THE POLL-TOPPERS IN MEATH EAST IN 2020
The following table lists those candidates who took over 1,000 votes in this area according to the tallies. %TV (Total Vote) refers to the percentage of each candidate’s 2020 vote that lies within the new constituency, while %Q (Quota) refers to what proportion of a new quota each candidate would achieve on their tally vote.
RELEVANT CANDIDATES
| SURNAME | PARTY | CONST. | TALLY | %TV | %Q |
| O’ROURKE | SF | MEATH E | 10,223 | 100% | 1.06 |
| McENTEE | FG | MEATH E | 7,691 | 100% | 0.80 |
| BYRNE | FF | MEATH E | 6,039 | 100% | 0.63 |
| DOHERTY | FG | MEATH E | 4,180 | 100% | 0.43 |
| McCABE | GP | MEATH E | 3,251 | 100% | 0.34 |
| BONNER | IND | MEATH E | 2,934 | 100% | 0.30 |
| KEOGAN | IND | MEATH E | 2,475 | 100% | 0.26 |
| G-SMITH | FF | MEATH E | 1,941 | 100% | 0.20 |
| TOIBIN | AON | MEATH E | 1,634 | 100% | 0.17 |
| MUNSTER | SF | LOUTH | 1,324 | 8% | 0.14 |
All candidates above were based in Meath with the exception of Imelda Munster of Sinn Féin.
The following table shows the party vote by constituency (or part of county).
VOTE BY AREA
| COUNTY | PROP | FF | FG | SF | GP | OTH | INDS |
| Meath E | 87% | 19.0% | 28.3% | 24.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 12.9% |
| Louth | 8% | 14.4% | 21.4% | 35.4% | 9.2 | 16.8% | 3.0% |
| Cav-Mon | 4% | 28.8% | 23.5% | 35.2% | 3.0% | 9.3% | 0.1% |
| TOTAL | 100% | 19.1% | 27.1% | 25.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 11.5% |
There is a legitimate question that Fine Gael may well do better (and Sinn Féin worse) in the areas of North Meath coming back in from Cavan-Monaghan given that Helen McEntee is based in close proximity.
Pulling the above information above together – and strictly on the 2020 tallies and transfer patterns – the last seat is actually very hard to call. Fine Gael have the largest vote, but it was badly balanced in 2020, Sinn Féin will presumably have a second candidate (probably in the Kells area) and are helped somewhat by the additional areas entering the constituency and the Greens – though at under half a quota – would not be out of the picture.
If the Green Party can stay ahead of the second Sinn Féin candidate – Sinn Féin transfers would probably ensure a Green seat. If they can’t, the result will depend on how well-balanced the Sinn Féin vote is.