Below I’m going to look at the patterns in Sinn Féin’s polling patterns since the 2020 General Election.

I’m doing this by means of averages calculated by use of data from ten time-weighted polls per value. This allows for longer-term trends to be apparent at the expense of a slight lag in temporal accuracy. Data from MRBI, RED C Research, Ireland Thinks and Behaviours and Attitudes polls.

The first map below shows the changes that took place in Sinn Féin’s overall poll rating and its standings amongst middle-class and working-class voters from the start of 2019 until the Election in February.

Note the limited divergence between the patterns of support between middle-class and working-class voters; generally speaking Sinn Féin’s support amongst middle-class voters remained around nine points behind its working-class support irrespective of what Sinn Féin’s overall level of support was.

At the maximum, Sinn Féin’s working-class support was 11 points ahead of its working-class support; at the minimum it was 7 points behind.

Below are the figures for the same categories for the period from the General Election until the end of last year.

Obviously support for Sinn Féin increased significantly during the election campaign and indeed continued to do so afterwards – but the increase was more marked amongst Working-class voters.

By mid-summer their support amongst working-class voters was more than twice that of their support amongst middle-class voters (40% to 18%). However, that gap narrowed somewhat by the of the year.

Since then, their working-class support has remained between 14 and 19 points ahead of their middle-class support and is currently at the upper end of that spectrum (42% to 23%)

The graph below shows the different levels of support amongst younger voters (18 to 34 year olds), middle-aged voters (35 to 54 year olds) and older voters (those over 55).

As can be seen, Sinn Féin have been consistently most popular with younger voters, although it should be noted that their support level amongst middle-aged voters has generally not lagged too far behind.

An interesting point is that support for Sinn Féin support has fallen noticeably amongst younger voters (45% to 40%) and middle-aged voters (42% to 35%) but not amongst older voters.

Finally – the most interesting graph – the patterns in regional support for Sinn Féin.

in the General Election, Sinn Féin support was highest in Dublin in the east and Connaught-Ulster in the West at 27%. Leinster was only marginally behind at 26% and Munster was at 20%.

Since then – outside Dublin – support for Sinn Féin has risen a further 10%  to 12% in the provinces. But in the capital itself, support has actually fallen by 3%.

Notice how support outside Dublin took a big jump upwards from the start of 2022, while Dublin remained fairly static. And then, from the start of 2023 support in the provinces levelled off, while Dublin support has been steadily declining. What is the reason for that? A greater choice of left-wing alternatives in Dublin perhaps?

I will be adding further graphs and text in the next few days….