The Tallyriffic Predictor’s analysis of the RED C poll on a constituency-by-constituency basis returns the following results :
| PARTY | VOTE | SEATS |
| FIANNA FAIL | 27% | 54 |
| FINE GAEL | 24% | 40 |
| LABOUR | 5% | 3 |
| SINN FEIN | 14% | 23 |
| OTHERS | 30% | 37 |
As can be seen, Fianna Fáil are only 3% ahead of Fine Gael, yet win 14 more seats. This is due to the fact that Fianna Fáil were “luckier” on the last count – they took 11 of the final seats, but only 6 of the runner-up slots. By contrast, Fine Gael took 15 of the final seats, but 20 runner-up slots. Accounting for “luck” – by equalising the number of final seat wins and runner-up slots – the seat tallies would look like this.
| PARTY | VOTE | SEATS |
| FIANNA FAIL | 27% | 51 |
| FINE GAEL | 24% | 42 |
| LABOUR | 5% | 2 |
| SINN FEIN | 14% | 25 |
| OTHERS | 30% | 37 |
Fianna Fáil gain across all regions of the country, while Fine Gael show a poor performance in Leinster – where they are at risk of losing seats in Carlow-Kilkenny, Meath East, Louth, Longford-Westmeath, Wexford and Wicklow. By contrast, their vote improves slightly in Connaught-Ulster. Sinn Fein see a strong performance in Leinster offset by a poor performance in Connaught-Ulster.
You can read the entire report here :