The Tallyriffic Predictor’s analysis of the RED C poll on a constituency-by-constituency basis returns the following results :
| PARTY | VOTE | SEATS |
| FIANNA FAIL | 32% | 62 |
| FINE GAEL | 21% | 37 |
| LABOUR | 6% | 3 |
| SINN FEIN | 19% | 33 |
| OTHERS | 22% | 22 |
It might seem odd that Labour only win 3 seats off 6%, but this result is explained by the fact that of the 7 seats Labour won in February 2016, 5 were won on the last count. Of these 5, 4 were won by a victory margin of less than 2000 votes and 3 with a margin of less than 1000 votes.
Accounting for “luck” – by equalising the number of final seat wins and runner-up slots – the seat tallies would look like this.
| PARTY | VOTE | SEATS |
| FIANNA FAIL | 32% | 57 |
| FINE GAEL | 21% | 37 |
| LABOUR | 6% | 2 |
| SINN FEIN | 19% | 33 |
| OTHERS | 22% | 25 |
Fianna Fáil gain across all regions of the country – although their improvement is somewhat more muted in Leinster. Fine Gael show the largest drop in Leinster – where they are (on these figures) at risk of losing seats in Carlow-Kilkenny, Kildare North, Louth, Offaly, Wexford and Wicklow. By contrast, their vote remains virtually static in Connaught-Ulster. Sinn Fein see a very strong performance in Leinster.
You can read the entire report here :Analysis B&A ST February 2017