HISTORY
Dublin Bay North was first contested in 2016, but the two constituencies it replaced – Dublin North-Central and Dublin North-East go back far further. Dublin North-Central was first contested in 1948, and Dublin North-East goes back even further – to 1937.
However, it’s a bit more complicated than that – up until the 1970s, Dublin North-Central was essentially a North-Inner City Constituency and up until 1981 its northernmost settlement was Clontarf. Dublin North-East on the other hand would have encompassed the gradual spread of the northern suburbs until by the 1960s it seems to have covered an area roughly equivalent to the modern Dublin Bay North. It was abolished in 1977, but reappeared in its modern form in 1981.
| CONSTITUENCY | Fianna Fail | Fine Gael | Labour | Other | Independents |
| Dublin North-Central (1969-2011) | 23 (47%) | 16 (33%) | 6 (12%) | 1 (2%) | 3 (6%) |
| Dublin North-East (1937-2011) | 39 (44%) | 23 (26%) | 13 (15%) | 3 (3%) | 11 (12%) |
Others include : Socialist Labour in D.N.C. in 1981, Clann Na Poblachta in Dublin North East in 1948, Workers Party in 1987 and 1989
Well known figures in the modern (post-1969) Dublin North-Central include
- George Colley (Fianna Fáil), who was originally schoolfriend and later staunch enemy of Charles J. Haughey prior to his untimely death in 1983.
- Michael O’Leary (Labour), who was leader of the Labour Party from 1981 until 1982 when he sensationally left the party and was elected for Fine Gael in the November election of that year.
- Luke Belton (Fine Gael), of the Belton political dynasty.
- Charles Haughey (Fianna Fáil), who switched to North-Central from North-East due to the northern movement of the boundaries in 1981.
- Noel Browne (Socialist Labour), elected for the last time in 1981 for the Socialist Labour Party.
- Richard Bruton (Fine Gael), Fine Gael grandee first elected in February 1982.
- Finian McGrath (Independent), Minister of State from 2016 to 2020.
In 1981, Charlie Haughey took over two quotas (43.5%) of the vote, of which 95% went back to his running-mates – but it still wasn’t enough to get three of the four seats. Fianna Fáil finally did get three of the four seats in 1989 with 51.6% of the vote.
In 1997, Derek McDowell of Labour saw his vote fall by 70%, and started off on less than one-third of a quota. Nevertheless, he managed to narrowly take the last seat ahead of environmental campaigner Sean Dublin Bay Loftus. In 2002 he improved his vote but was ousted by Finian McGrath.
Well known figures in Dublin North-Central include :
- Alfie Byrne (Independent), legendary Dublin Independent, who was originally elected as a Irish Parliamentary Party MP in 1915. He enjoyed considerable support amongst the Dublin Working-class. Politically, he supported Fine Gael governments.
- James Larkin (Independent/Labour), legendary Labour organiser, elected as an Independent in 1937 and for Labour in 1943.
- Harry Colley (Fianna Fáil), first elected in 1944 and held his seat until 1957 when he was defeated by Charles Haughey.
- Peadar Cowan (Clann Na Poblachta/Independent), larger-than-life character who was grandfather of actor Rory Cowan.
- Charles Haughey, who was finally elected on his fourth attempt in 1957 and quickly built a formidable election machine.
- Sean Dublin Bay Loftus, environmental campaigner who first ran in 1965 and finally won a seat in 1981.
- Conor Cruise O’Brien (Labour), Minister in the 1973-1977 government and later newspaper columnist.
- Michael Woods (Fianna Fáil), held multiple ministerial posts between 1979 and 2002.
Sean Dublin Bay Loftus managed to pull off a major shock by winning a seat with only 2,365 votes in 1981; unfortunately he lost it in February 1982.
Ned Brennan of Fianna Fáil took the last seat in February 1982 from his party colleague Liam FitzGerald by only 108 votes. In November of that year FitzGerald beat Brennan by 108 votes.
In 1987, Sean Haughey lost on his first attempt at the Dáil when the Progressive Democrat transfers broke for Pat McCartan of the Workers Party.
Labour surprised everyone – including themselves by winning two of the four seats in 1992. Sean Kenny outpolled Tommy Broughan by two to one, but it was Broughan who held onto the seat in 1997.
Fianna Fáil won two of the three seats in 2002, but in 2011 won none – yet again Tommy Broughan and Sean Kenny won two seats for Labour.
RECENT CONSTITUENCY RESULTS
For 1997 to 2011, I’m combining Dublin North-Central and Dublin North-East.
| YEAR | SEATS | Fianna Fáil | Fine Gael | Labour | Sinn Féin | S.D. | I4C | Others | Inds. |
| 1997 | 8 | 43.7% 4 | 22.7% 2 | 11.5% 2 | 2.7% | 13.4% | 5.9% | ||
| 2002 | 7 | 45.8% 4 | 16.3% 1 | 12.9% 1 | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% 1 | ||
| 2007 | 6 | 41.9% 2 | 24.3% 2 | 11.1% 1 | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% 1 | ||
| 2011 | 6 | 12.2% | 33.5% 2 | 28.7% 3 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 10.2% 1 | ||
| 2016 | 5 | 15.5% 1 | 19.7% 1 | 7.7% | 11.6% 1 | 5.2% | 7.3% 1 | 14.8% | 18.2% 1 |
| 2020 | 5 | 14.4% 1 | 18.8% 1 | 11.3% 1 | 29.8% 1 | 8.7% 1 | 15.1% | 1.9% |
Labour have been comparatively lucky here, taking a quarter of the seats in 1997 with less than one-eighth of the vote, and then again in 2011 taking half the seats with just over a quarter of the vote.
Fianna Fáil took a majority of the seats in 2002; indeed, they weren’t that far from taking five of the seven seats that year as Deirdre Heney was only just over a thousand votes behind Finian McGrath for the final seat in North Central.
THE 2020 ELECTION
The 2020 election saw two left-wing Independent veterans – Finian McGrath and Tommy Broughan – bow out. They were eventually replaced by two other left-wingers – Cian O’Callaghan of the Social Democrats and Aodhain O’Riordain.
In fact this was a strong constituency for the Centre-Left, with a Social Democrat and Labour candidates elected, and a Green Candidate runner-up.
Collectively, they generally did better in middle-class areas – you can see how their highest collective votes were in generally speaking along the coast, peaking at over 40% in Howth. In contrast in parts of Darndale it was under 5%.
Again, you can see the social class division in the Biggest Parties map – Fine Gael led along the coast, Sinn Féin led away from it. In between Labour topped the poll in Killester and also Fairview.
There are four Electoral Areas in Dublin Bay North :
- CLONTARF, which stretches along the southern constituency, and also takes in the Donnycarney, Fairview and Killester.
- DONAGHMEDE, in the middle of the constituency, also contains Raheny, Kilbarrack and Edenmore.
- ARTANE-WHITEHALL (part), in the north-west. Contains Coolock and Darndale.
- HOWTH-MALAHIDE (part), in the north-east. Also contains Sutton, Bayside and Baldoyle.
The following table contains the party performance by Local Electoral Area.
| TYPE | F.F. | FINE GAEL | SINN FEIN | LABOUR | S.D. | OTHERS | INDS. | % |
| Clontarf (pt.) | 17% | 23% | 16% | 18% | 7% | 15% | 4% | 32% |
| Donaghmede | 12% | 16% | 38% | 10% | 7% | 11% | 6% | 30% |
| Artane-Whitehall (pt.) | 12% | 10% | 54% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 9% | 21% |
| Howth-Malahide (pt.) | 12% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 19% | 13% | 5% | 18% |
Note how both Aodhain O’Riordain and Cian O’Callaghan had strong personal bases in Clontarf and Howth-Malahide respectively.
Here are the support maps for the candidates elected in Dublin Bay North.
Denise Mitchell got over a quarter of the vote in the north of the constituency in area stretching from Donaghmede across to Darndale and Coolock. Her vote reached over 50% in Coolock, and up to 75% in parts of Darndale.
Richard Bruton’s vote was accentuated in the mainly middle-class coastal areas of the constituency. Interestingly, his best vote – at nearly 40% – was in Sutton which is several miles away from his residence on Griffith Avenue. Cian O’Callaghan’s vote on the other hand was more geographically concentrated and he polled a consistent 15%-20% across Bayside, Baldoyle, Howth and Sutton.
Aodhain O’Riordain’s vote concentrated within the bounds of the old Dublin North-Central, with his vote reaching over 20% in Killester. Sean Haughey’s vote was strongest in Donnycarney.
DEMOGRAPHICS
Below is an analysis of the vote based upon the number of “Middle-Class” households per Electoral Division. For the purposes of this study, I’m using the proportion of households headed by an Employer, Managerial or Professional breadwinner as defined in the 2016 Census. The reason I’m not using the more recent 2021 Census is that definitions of particularly what is deemed to be a Professional seems to have have been tightened making comparison with previous censuses difficult.
Roughly 40% of voters lived in areas less than a third middle-class by this definition, roughly 30% in areas more than half middle-class, and a final 30% in areas somewhere inbetween.
The party Support in each of these blocs was as follows :
| TYPE | FIANNA FAIL | FINE GAEL | SINN FEIN | LABOUR | S.D. | OTHERS | IND. |
| Middle-Class < 33% | 12% | 11% | 49% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 8% |
| Middle-Class 33%-50% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 15% | 10% | 9% | 5% |
| Middle-Class >50% | 16% | 30% | 9% | 14% | 12% | 13% | 4% |
The following map uses Census 2022 SAP data to show the relative number of Middle-Class Households (as defined in that census). Red areas are below average (with Darkest Red the lowest) and Blue areas above average.
You can immediately see how the Middle-Class areas broadly match the areas of Fine Gael primacy, and the Working-class areas broadly match the areas of Sinn Fein primacy.
TRANSFERS
| COUNT | PARTY | Fianna Fáil | Fine Gael | Labour | Social Democrats | Greens | Left | Others | Non-Transferable | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | S.F. | 522 (5.5%) | 241 (2.5%) | 609 (6.5%) | 1,191 (12.6%) | 673 (7.1%) | 4,976 (52.7%) | 1,215 (12.9%) | 9.409 | |
| 7 | Aontu | 381(32.4%) | 51 (4.4%) | 65 (5.6%) | 88 (7.5%) | 132 (11.2%) | 107 (9.1%) | 227 (19.3%) | 123 (10.4%) | 1,174 |
| 8 | Irish Freedom Party | 264 (15.0%) | 53 (3.0%) | 62 (3.5%) | 106 (6%) | 144 (8.2%) | 782 (44.5%) | 349 (19.8%) | 1,759 | |
| 14 | Left | 258 (4.0%) | 548 (8.6%) | 2,381 (37.1%) | 930 (14.5%) | 2,304 (36.0%) | 6,421 |
The second count saw the transfer of Sinn Féin’s 8,409 transfers, over half of which went to far-left candidates from Solidarity-People Before Profit and Independent Left.
Over a third of the Aontu vote went to Fianna Fáil – by contrast only 5% went to Fine Gael.
Interestingly, nearly half of the far-right Irish Freedom Party transfers went to far-left candidates – it seems opposition to the status quo trumped positions on any ideological scale.
The homeless Sinn Féin transfers, bereft of a second candidate, proved instrumental in Cian O’Callaghan taking a seat. If they had a second candidate he would have likely fallen short, although perhaps only by small margins.
RABBIT-HOLE
Incidentally – and because I never met a rabbit hole I didn’t like – I want to have a look at how the strongest Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin polling stations have changed since 2007. The strongest Polling Stations were : Fianna Fáil – Artane (22%), Fine Gael – Sutton (39%), Sinn Féin – Darndale (74%).
| ARTANE | F.F. | F.G. | LAB | SF | OTH |
| 2007 | 49% | 27% | 6% | 3% | 11% |
| 2011 | 17% | 35% | 22% | 6% | 20% |
| 2016 | 26% | 20% | 7% | 8% | 39% |
| 2020 | 22% | 17% | 10% | 27% | 24% |
What I find interesting here is that the departing Fianna Fáil vote seems to have broken heavier for Labour rather than Fine Gael in 2011. The falling Fine Gael and Labour vote seem to have primarily benefitted Independents (perhaps Tommy Broughan?) in 2016. The Sinn Féin only really jumped here in 2020, possibly helped by Broughan’s departure from the scene.
| SUTTON | F.F. | F.G. | LAB | SF | OTH |
| 2007 | 34% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 16% |
| 2011 | 15% | 48% | 15% | 2% | 20% |
| 2016 | 11% | 41% | 6% | 2% | 39% |
| 2020 | 12% | 39% | 7% | 6% | 36% |
It’s interesting that even at the height of the Celtic Tiger, Fine Gael were able to outpace Fianna Fáil here. In fact their vote has remained pretty solid over the years. The departing Fianna Fáil vote in Sutton broke more evenly in 2011 than in Artane. What is surprising is that the Fianna Fail vote actually fell in 2016 – though perhaps might be due to geographical candidate situation factors. Even in 2020, Sinn Féin could only get 6%, a quarter of their national vote.
| DARNDALE | F.F. | F.G. | LAB | SF | OTH |
| 2007 | 23% | 5% | 8% | 59% | 5% |
| 2011 | 5% | 10% | 30% | 47% | 8% |
| 2016 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 45% | 41% |
| 2020 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 74% | 14% |
Looking at Darndale Polling Station after Sutton has a certain Damo & Ivor vibe to it. Anyway, I was actually surprised to find that Sinn Féin were actually as high as 59% in 2007 – clearly Sinn Féin put major effort into the area. Their vote actually fell in 2011, with much of it apparently going to Labour. Labour’s vote completely evaporated in 2016 with the departure of Tommy Brougham, and it seems his 2016 vote went Lock, Stock and Barrell to Sinn Féin in 2020.
THE CONSTITUENCY REDRAW
The Constituency Commission recommended that three DEDs – Kilmore A, Beaumont B and Beaumont F – be moved to Dublin North-West. These areas run down the central western border of the constituency and contains landmarks such as Beaumont Hospital, Our Lady of Mercy College and (checks Google Earth) Bimbo’s Corner Shop.
A Close-up of the area is shown below – Denise Mitchell of Sinn Féin topped the poll in all areas.
Taking the party figures at face value – the tally for the new constituency would look like this.
| CONSTITUENCY | Fianna Fáil | Fine Gael | Sinn Féin | Labour | Social Democrats | Others | Independents | Votes |
| Dublin Bay North 2020 | 14.4% | 18.8% | 29.8% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 30% | 72,251 |
| To Dublin North-West | 17.5% | 16.3% | 32.3% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 5.197 |
| TOTAL | 14.1% | 19.0% | 29.6% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 2.7% | 67,054 |
The Constituency Redraw would not affect the result in any significant way. The change would have made Sean Haughey’s seat very slightly more vulnerable perhaps.