HISTORY
The following tables shows the proportions of party seats in the Kerry constituencies since 1923.
| CONSTITUENCY | F.F.** | Fine Gael*** | Labour | Sinn Féin | C.N.T. | Others**** | Ind. |
| Kerry (1923-1937) | 21 (58%) | 13 (36%) | 1 (3%) | 1 (3%) | |||
| Kerry Nth (1937-2016)* | 25 (37%) | 12 (18%) | 16 (24%) | 3 (4%) | 4 (6%) | 4 (6%) | 4 (6%) |
| Kerry Sth (1937-2016) | 38 (56%) | 19 (28%) | 6 (9%) | 1 (1%) | 5 (7%) | ||
| Kerry (2016-) | 2 (20%) | 2 (20%) | 2 (20%) | 4 (40%) | |||
| TOTAL | 86 (47%) | 46 (25%) | 22 (12%) | 7 (4%) | 4 (2%) | 5 (3%) | 13 (7%) |
Notes:
* Includes Kerry North-West Limerick in 2011
** Includes Republicans in 1923
*** Includes Cumann na nGaedhal from 1923 to 1933
**** National Labour (1944, 1948); Clann na Poblachta (1954, 1956)
In the early years of the state, Kerry was a stronghold of anti-treatyite sentiment with Republicans winning four of the seven seats in 1923, and Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin winning four between them again in June 1927. In 1932 and 1933, they took five of the seven seats, reaching nearly 68% in the last election. Kerry was most unusual in not having have any representation from smaller parties in the 1920s and early 1930s
After 1938, Kerry was split into a four seat Kerry North and a three seat Kerry South. Fianna Fáil comfortably took three of the four seats in both 1937 and 1938, but ceded the third seat when both Labour and Clann Na Talmhan took a seat; Fine Gael were left with no seat and didn’t regain one until 1951 which they lost again in 1954 and didn’t win again until 1969. Fianna Fáil were reduced to just one of the four seats in 1951 and 1954.
In 1961, Kerry North was reduced to a three seater, with Fianna Fáil, Labour and Patrick Finucane (Independent) each taking one. Fianna Fáil supremacy was finally restored when they took two out of three seats in 1977 with 56% of the vote, excluding Fine Gael again.
Fianna Fáil held two out of three seats in Kerry North in all three elections in 1981 and 1982, but famously lost by five votes in 1987 to Dick Spring. Despite a national swing of 12% against Fine Gael nationally in that election, there was a swing of 9% to the party in Kerry due to the presence of footballing hero Jimmy Deenihan on the ticket. Interestingly he had (narrowly) fail to win a seat in November 1982.
It should be noted that the Healy-Rae electoral machine may now be all-conquering, but in both 2002 and 2007 Jackie Healy-Rae barely saw off Fianna Fáil candidate Tom Fleming. The irony is Fleming went Independent himself in 2011 and won a seat.
Martin Ferris of Sinn Féin first ran for Sinn Féin in 1997 and took an eye-catching 16% – he topped the poll and won a seat in 2002 knocking out Dick Spring despite Spring taking nearly 90% of a quota on the first count.
Well known figures in the various Kerry constituencies include :
- Austin Stack, captained Kerry to victory in the All-Ireland in 1904. Elected as a Republican in 1923, and as one of the five Sinn Féin TDs in June 1927. He died in 1929, weakened by hunger strikes when imprisoned by the British.
- The McEllistrims (Fianna Fáil), Old IRA Veteran Thomas (1923-1969), his son Thomas (1969-1987, 1989-1992) and his grandson Thomas (2002-2011), all elected for Fianna Fáil.
- Stephen Fuller (Fianna Fáil), Old IRA veteran who was the sole survivor of the Ballyseedy massacre in 1923. Elected in 1937 and 1938, but lost his seat to Dan Spring in 1943.
- Dan Spring (Labour and National Labour), Member of Kerry All-Ireland winning teams in 1939 and 1940, elected in 1943 and held his seat until retiring in 1981.
- Patrick Finucane (Clann na Talmhan and Independent) : Old IRA Veteran elected for Clann Na Talmhan in 1943 but left in protest in 1951 at their lack of support for Dairy Farmers. He won again for Clann Na Talmhan in 1954, but then won again as an Independent in 1957, 1961 and 1965. He retired in 1969 after suffering a serious head injury.
- John Flynn (Fianna Fáil and Independent Republican), Old IRA veteran, won seats for Fianna Fáil in 1937 and 1938. He returned in 1948 as an Independent Republican and was re-elected under that label in 1951, and again for Fianna Fáil in 1954. Once punched Oliver J Flanagan in the Dail restaurant for a perceived slight.
- The Connors (Clann Na Poblachta), Old IRA Veteran Johnny (1954-1956) who finally won a seat for Clann Na Poblachta but was killed in a car crash in 1956 leading to a bye-election when his daughter Kathleen (1956-1957) reluctantly ran and won in the bye-election but stepped down at the General Election the next year.
- Michael Moynihan (Labour), first contested Kerry South for Labour in 1954, but didn’t win a seat until 1981. He held it until 1987, and then again from 1989 to 1992.
- John Joe Rice (Sinn Féin), lifetime IRA member, won a seat in 1957 as an abstentionist Sinn Féin TD.
- Kit Ahern (Fianna Fáil), ICA President, won a seat in Kerry North in 1977 at her fourth attempt, but lost in 1981. She later joined the Progressive Democrats.
- Martin Ferris (2002-2020), Provisional IRA member, spent ten years in prison for attempting to smuggle guns and material on the Marita Ann in 1984.
- The Healy-Raes – surely no introduction is necessary?
RECENT CONSTITUENCY RESULTS
The following table shows the combined results in Kerry North and Kerry South in 1997, 2002 and 2007, Kerry North-West Limerick and Kerry South in 2011, and Kerry in 2016 and 2020…
| YEAR | SEATS | Fianna Fáil | Fine Gael | Labour | Sinn Féin | Healy-Rae | Others | Inds. |
| 1997 | 6 | 29.0% 2 | 19.0% 1 | 22.0% 2 | 8.0% | 10.1% 1 | 3.8% | 8.0% |
| 2002 | 6 | 37.2% 2 | 19.9% 1 | 18.6% 1 | 12.5% 1 | 8.2% 1 | 0.3% | 3.3% |
| 2007 | 6 | 36.0% 2 | 28.7% 2 | 12.2% | 12.0% 1 | 7.6% 1 | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| 2011 | 6 | 12.4% | 36.8% 2 | 15.7% 1 | 10.3% 1 | 7.4% 1 | 6.6% | 10.9% 1 |
| 2016 | 5 | 15.8% 1 | 21.4% 1 | 6.1% | 11.9% 1 | 38.3% 2 | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| 2020 | 5 | 20.7% 1 | 18.4% 1 | 20.3% 1 | 32.8% 2 | 7.3% | 0.5% |
The standout statistic is how the Healy-Raes (and mainly Michael Healy-Rae) transformed the fortunes of the family dynasty between 2011 and 2016. The vote had been in gentle decline ever since Jackie’s breakthrough election in 1997, but in 2016 the Healy-Raes pulled off one of the most spectacular constituency results in Irish Electoral history.
Elsewhere, Labour had had representation in both the old Kerry North and Kerry South – indeed they had two of the six seats in 1997 – but by 2020 they didn’t even field a candidate.
THE 2020 ELECTION
The 2020 election saw no change in party representation, but changes within Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil.
The largest parties are shown below – as can be be seen Independents (ie the Healy-Raes) dominated the map.
The map below is that of the poll-toppers.
Note how Danny Healy-Rae’s vote is tightly cloistered in the Killarney Electoral Area – this is the same strategy the Healy-Raes employed in 2016 whereby supporters in the Killarney Electoral Area were encouraged to vote for Danny and supporters everywhere were encouraged to vote for Michael. As can be seen, Michael topped the poll from the far north (Tarbert) to the far west (Ballyferriter) to the far south (Tuosist).
Elsewhere, Pa Daly topped the poll in Tralee and much of its environs as well as Listowel, Brendan Griffin did the same in a line stretching from Milltown to Dingle, while Norma Foley topped the poll in the village of Blennerville near Tralee.
The following table contains the party performance by Local Electoral Area.
| TYPE | FIANNA FAIL | FINE GAEL | SINN FEIN | HEALY-RAE | OTHERS | INDS. | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castleisland | 17% | 28% | 15% | 44% | 5% | 0% | 14% |
| Listowel | 22% | 21% | 26% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 22% |
| Tralee | 28% | 12% | 34% | 16% | 8% | 1% | 19% |
| Dingle | 14% | 32% | 17% | 27% | 9% | 0% | 10% |
| Killarney | 12% | 18% | 13% | 48% | 8% | 1% | 17% |
| Kenmare | 25% | 16% | 12% | 40% | 7% | 0% | 17% |
Here are the support maps for the candidates elected in Kerry.
Michael Healy-Rae’s vote peaked around Kenmare Bay, but he polled strongly across the constituency – except of course for the Killarney area which was reserved for his brother Danny.
Danny’s vote was heavily concentrated in the Killarney area as expected; Pa Daly polled best in the Listowel area, and his vote fell as it went further south.
Brendan Griffin depended on an alliance of Dingle and Killarney votes to secure his seat, while Norma Foley relied on votes in Tralee and Castleisland
DEMOGRAPHICS
Below is an analysis of the vote based upon Settlement size – Larger Urban refers to towns with a population of over 5,000 population, Smaller Urban refers to a towns and smaller villages with populations between 500 and 5,000, and rural to Villages with less than 500 population or rural areas.
Roughly one fifth of voters lived in larger urban areas, roughly a quarter in small urban areas more than half middle-class, and a final 55% in rural areas.
The party Support in each of these blocs was as follows :
| TYPE | FIANNA FAIL | FINE GAEL | SINN FEIN | OTHERS | IND. |
| Larger Urban | 24% | 14% | 30% | 7% | 24% |
| Smaller Urban | 21% | 20% | 22% | 6% | 30% |
| Rural | 19% | 20% | 16% | 6% | 38% |
Sinn Féin clearly did better in urban areas, while Independents (mainly the Healy-Raes) clearly did better in rural areas.
You can immediately see how the Middle-Class areas broadly match the areas of Fine Gael primacy, and the Working-class areas broadly match the areas of Sinn Fein primacy.
TRANSFERS
The transfers made no order to the starting order of the candidates and the top five were all elected.
Tralee-based Norma Foley (F.F.) started 1,425 votes ahead of her Ballyheigue-based colleague outgoing TD John Brassil. She progressively increased that lead throughout the count to finish with a lead of 3,334 votes.
Danny Healy-Rae received almost exactly half of his brother Michael’s surplus. Fianna Fáil internal rate was 43%, Fine Gael’s 49%. On the last count the Green voters had to choose between Foley and Brassil of Fianna Fáil – 28% went to Foley, 16% to Brassil and 56% gave no preference.
RABBIT-HOLE
Incidentally – and because I never met a rabbit hole I didn’t like – I want to have a look at the precise geographical nature of the Healy-Rae vote split.
Below I’ve outlined the Danny Healy-Rae share of the Independent vote (The Healy-Raes took 98.4% of the Independent Vote).
Note how Danny took well over half the Healy-Rae vote in the Killarney area – about 60% in Killarney town, and just over 70% in the area overall. He also took a majority of the Healy-Rae vote in Castleisland area. Finally he split the vote with Michael in Kilgarvan.
CONSTITUENCY REDRAW
Thankfully the borders of the Kingdom were not breached.