Following countless hours of looking through polls, polls and more polls, Tallyriffic is going to make the following prediction….

PARTY	%	+/-	SEATS	+/-
SINN FEIN	26%	–2	26	-1
DEMOCRATIC UNIONISTS	19%	-9	21	-7
ALLIANCE	16%	+7	13	+5
ULSTER UNIONISTS	13%	—	11	+1
S.D.L.P.	10%	-2	9	-3
Other Unionists	8%	+3	6	+4
Others	8%	+2	4	+1

This would equate to an advance for the middle-ground (in the form of Alliance) although given their poll ratings they might hope for a few more seats over the 13. Sinn Féin would cede 2 seats, but emerge as the largest party (with all that entails) while the Social Democratic and Labour party would cede 3 seats, partially due to losing votes and partially due to being overtaken by Alliance who tend to transfer well to the SDLP. The Democratic Unionist Party would lose nearly a third of their vote and a quarter of their seats, with the main beneficiaries being Traditional Unionist Voice who seem poised to make a breakthrough. The Ulster Unionist Party remain grounded on 13% although they are forecast to make a seat gain.

Below I’m going to look at each of the counties (and Belfast) in turn….

BELFAST

Belfast would see 8 nationalists, 6 Unionists and 6 others elected.

AREA	DUP	UUP	OTHU	SF	SDLP	ALL	OTH	GAIN	LOSS
EAST	2	1				2
NORTH	2			1	1	1		ALL	SF
SOUTH	1			1	1	1	1
WEST				4			1

Alliance take a seat from Sinn Féin in North Belfast, leaving two Nationalist seats to be fought over between SF and the SDLP – with SF threatening to take both seats. The DUP are possibly vulnerable to losing their 2nd seat in East Belfast to another Unionist.

DOWN

Down would see 11 Unionists, 4 Nationalists and 5 others (including one Green) elected.

AREA	DUP	UUP	OTHU	SF	SDLP	ALL	OTH	GAIN	LOSS
LAGAN V	1	1	1		1	1		TUV	DUP
N DOWN	1	1	1			1	1	TUV	DUP
STR’FORD	3	1				1
S DOWN		1		2	1	1		ALL	SDLP

The Democratic Unionists lose seats to Traditional Unionist Voice in Lagan Valley and North Down – the SDLP would hold onto their seat in the former constituency. The DUP are forecast to hold their three seats in Strangford although this may prove more difficult in practice – the SDLP are also forecast be runner-up as they have been at every assembly election since 1998. Alliance were runners-up in South Down and this time they are forecast to go one better and take a seat. Alliance have reasonable chances of second seats in Lagan Valley and especially North Down – vote management could prove crucial.

ARMAGH

Armagh would see 5 Unionists, 4 Nationalists and 1 other elected.

AREA	DUP	UUP	OTHU	SF	SDLP	ALL	OTH	GAIN	LOSS
N & ARM	1	1		2	1			UUP	SF
U BANN	1	2		1		1		ALL	SDLP

Sinn Féin are forecast to lose a seat to the UUP in Newry & Armagh – turnout and Sinn Féin vote balancing will be the deciding factor. Alliance are forecast to take the SDLP seat in Upper Bann.

FERMANAGH AND TYRONE

Fermanagh and Tyrone together would see 11 Nationalists and 4 Unionists elected.

AREA	DUP	UUP	OTHU	SF	SDLP	ALL	OTH	GAIN	LOSS
FER-ST	1	1		3
M ULSTER	1			3	1
W TYRONE	1			3	1

The main contests may be within nationalism with SDLP perhaps challenging on of Sinn Féin’s seat in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, while there could be close contests between the UUP and DUP in both Mid-Ulster and West Tyrone.

DERRY

Derry would see 5 Nationalists, 3 Unionists and two others elected.

AREA	DUP	UUP	OTHU	SF	SDLP	ALL	OTH	GAIN	LOSS
FOYLE				2	2		1	PBP	DUP
E. LD	1	1	1	1		1		UUP,ALL	DUP,SF

People Before Profit are forecast to make a gain in Foyle at the expense of the DUP, but that is contingent on the PBP vote holding up in the absence of Eamonn McCann. Two changes are forecast in Londonderry East where Alliance and the UUP are forecast to take seats at the expense of Sinn Féin and the DUP.

ANTRIM

Antrim would see 9 Unionists, 3 Nationalistss and 3 others elected.

AREA	DUP	UUP	OTHU	SF	SDLP	ALL	OTH	GAIN	LOSS
SOUTH ANTRIM	1	1	1	1		1		TUV	DUP
EAST ANTRIM	1	1	1	1		1		UUP,ALL	DUP,SF
NORTH ANTRIM	1	1	1	1		1		ALL	DUP

Both Sinn Féin and Traditional Unionist Voice are forecast to each take a seat off the two larger Unionist parties in East Antrim, although both gains would be marginal. The TUV are also forecast to take a seat from the DUP in South Antrim in common with other constituencies in the Belfast hinterland.

More analysis in the morning.