I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
METHODOLOGY : The Country total and regional figures for each party/group are calculated using a time-weighted average from the last five poll. The Country Total is adjusted to ensure it is in line with the regional figures (some polls don’t issue regional data). The proportion each party loses (if anything) per region is then calculated. For instance if a party was at 18% and is now at 12%, it loses a third of its vote – if its vote was 24% in a constituency it falls to 16%, if it was 15% to 10% etc. Next it is determined what votes the gaining parties will receive – for instance Fianna Fáil votes might be (proportionately) more likely to go to Fine Gael than Sinn Féin etc. A simulation of a count in each constituency is processed – this uses transfer data from the 2020 General Election, and in 16 constituencies uses transfer data particular to that constituency (if we are looking at transfers based on 2020 transfer rates).
Also – in 2021 Sinn Féin received well over a quota worth of votes in many constituencies due to their only running one candidate (in Louth, Cavan-Monaghan and Donegal, they received well over two quotas with two candidates). In these constituencies, I’ve added a “dummy” 2nd SF candidate who takes one-third of the Sinn Fein vote.
It should be noted that these are merely the outcomes if regional swings were replicated in constituencies in that region. No attempt is made to factor in individual circumstances in each constutuency.
DUBLIN : The Count simulator forecasts that the Fianna Fáil vote would remain stable – but they would still be at risk of losing seats in Dublin North-West (where Sinn Féin missed out on taking a second seat by only running one candidate) and Dublin Bay North. Several of the seats they retain could also be marginal – only in Dublin Fingal would a FF TD be elected before the last count. More positively, their two putative losses are only by narrow margins and a gain in Dublin South-Central at the expense of the Green Party can’t be ruled out.
Sinn Fein would gain six seats – this is mainly due to their undernomination of candidates in 2020. In fact the capital is the only region in the country where there isn’t a significant increase in the Sinn Féin vote. The Fine Gael vote is actually up five points in Dublin, with gains in Dublin South-Central and Dun Laoghaire. This has been a consistent trend for much of the present Dail with the Fine Gael vote holding up better in Dublin than elsewhere. The Greens would lose half their seats, though it could be more as current analysis is based upon 2020 transfer patterns. The seven others consist of three Social Democrat TDs and four Solidarity-People Before Profit TDs.
| 1 | |||||||||
| 1 |
LEINSTER : The Count simulator forecasts that Sinn Féin would win five extra seats in Leinster – in Carlow-Kilkenny and Wicklow (from the Greens) and Laois-Offaly, Louth and Wexford (from Independents).
Geography could play to Sinn Féin’s hand in Wicklow where most unusually all five TDs are based in the urban north-east catchment area of Bray and Greystones – a Sinn Féin candidate in South or West Wicklow could capitalise. Fianna Fáil are actually forecast to make two gains – in Meath West at Fine Gael’s expense, and in Kildare South. The Greens appear very vulnerable in both Wicklow and particularly Carlow-Kilkenny where they only took a seat due to Sinn Féin not running a second candidate in 2020. The 3 others are two Social Democrat TDs and one Aontu TD.
| FF | IND | ||||||||
| 1 | |||||||||
MUNSTER : Opinion Polls have been suggesting a substantial rise in Sinn Féin support in Munster and accordingly the Count Simulator awards them ten gains. Fine Gael would make gains in Tipperary and Waterford
The small parties all suffer with Labour losing both their seats and a similar fate befalling the Greens. The Social Democrats would lose out to Sinn Fein also in Cork South-West, and Solidarity-People Before Profit would lose in Cork North-Central. It should be noted however – and this applies particularly to the two Labour seats – that seats particularly dependent on support in a defined rural area of a constituency are more impervious to national and regional trend. Independents also suffer heavily, losing 5 seats in the Sinn Féin surge.
| 1 | 1 | FF | IND | ||||||
| 1 | 1 | 2 | SF | SOL | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 2 | SF | FF | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | SF | FF | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | SF | SD | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | SF | IND | ||||
| 1 | 1 | 2 | SF | GP | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | SF | IND | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | FG,SF | LAB,IND | ||||
| 1 | 2 | 1 | SF | GP |
CONNAUGHT-ULSTER : There is significant change forecast in Connaught-Ulster with Sinn Féin gaining three seats and Independents losing four.
The Independent vote drops by 3 points here in this analysis and this leads to losses in Donegal, Galway East, Galway West and Galway-Roscommon; in the last constituency Fine Gael make the gain, but lose their seat in neighbouring Sligo-Leitrim. The Social Democrats are forecast to take a seat in Galway West – they may well be dependent on transfers from the Greens.
| 2 | 1 | 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1 | 3 | SF | IND | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | SF | IND | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | SD | IND | |||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | FG | IND | |||||
| 1 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 2 | 1 | SF | FG |
GOVERNMENT FORMATION
Neither the Government parties (79 seats) nor the Opposition Parties put together (75 seats) would reach the magic figure of 81 needed to secure a majority. However, the current administration would be able to continue with the support of a couple of Independents.
DEMOGRAPHICS
There are significant differences between the demographic make-up of the Government Bloc of parties and those of the Opposition Bloc – but also between parties within those respective blocs.
Starting with Social Class – the Government is significantly more popular with middle-class voters (53%) as opposed to Working-Class voters (34%); this is due to both Fine Gael and the Greens’ support being disproportionately middle-class. On the opposition side 56% of Working-Class voters favour those parties, compared to 40% of middle-class voters. This difference is totally down to the social profile of Sinn Fein’s vote which is disproportionately working-class.
Finally, the parties of the opposition bloc seem to hold little appeal for the farmers of Ireland, with over three-quarters supporting the Government parties (except the Greens not surprisingly).
The Opposition Bloc fares much better than the Government amongst younger voters with a strong showing of 40% support for Sinn Féin and also accentuated support (15%) for the smaller parties.
Sinn Féin are as popular amongst middle-aged voters (40%) as they are amongst younger ones; the opposite is true of Fianna Fáil who are as unpopular with middle-aged voters as they are with younger ones.
Finally, Fianna Fáil AND Fine Gael vie for the lead amongst older voters. Overall, the Government enjoys majority support amongst older voters.
In terms of location, Fianna Fáil do significantly better with rural voters, while Labour (who historically had a significant rural vote), the Greens and the smaller parties all do better in Urban Areas.
MAIN POINTS
The Government would likely be returned on these figures, albeit needing Independent support.
Sinn Féin would make sweeping gains, mainly at the expense of smaller parties and Independents.
The divide between Government and Opposition remains sharply stratified, with Sinn Féin polling much better among younger and working-class voters.
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael do better amongst older voters and farmers.
Regionally, the Fine Gael vote rises in Dublin – with two seat gains – while Sinn Féin’s vote remains essentially static. However, they would make six gains in the capital due to their under-nomination of candidates last time.
In the provinces, Sinn Féin’s vote rises sharply (particularly in Munster) while Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael see a small contraction in their vote.
The vote for Independents is down sharply, which would lead to a significantly diminished Independent representation. A note of caution though is that Independents tend to be under-represented in opinion polls outside an election cycle.
Do FG not have a seat in Dun Laoghaire already ? Will they gain another ?
Apologies. Didn’t change the seat totals. Yes Fine Gael would gain a seat in Dun Laoghaire