The Poll Average on the 1st June 2022

I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….

PARTY
VOTE
+/-
SEATS
+/-
SINN FEIN
36%
+11
66
+29
FINE GAEL
20%
-1 
38
+3
FIANNA FAIL
19%
-3
31
-7
GREENS
4%
-3
4
-8
LABOUR
4%
 
3
-3
Others
8%
 
8
-5
Inds
10%
-3
8
-11

 

CONTENTS

Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points

METHODOLOGY

The Country total and regional figures for each party/group are calculated using a time-weighted average from the last five poll. The Country Total is adjusted to ensure it is in line with the regional figures (some polls don’t issue regional data). The proportion each party loses (if anything) per region is then calculated. For instance if a party was at 18% and is now at 12%, it loses a third of its vote – if its vote was 24% in a constituency it falls to 16%, if it was 15% to 10% etc. Next it is determined what votes the gaining parties will receive – for instance Fianna Fáil votes might be (proportionately) more likely to go to Fine Gael than Sinn Féin etc. A simulation of a count in each constituency is processed – this uses transfer data from the 2020 General Election, and in 16 constituencies uses transfer data particular to that constituency (if we are looking at transfers based on 2020 transfer rates).

Also – in 2021 Sinn Féin received well over a quota worth of votes in many constituencies due to their only running one candidate (in Louth, Cavan-Monaghan and Donegal, they received well over two quotas with two candidates). In these constituencies, I’ve added a “dummy” 2nd SF candidate who takes one-third of the Sinn Fein vote.

It should be noted that these are merely the outcomes if regional swings were replicated in constituencies in that region. No attempt is made to factor in individual circumstances in each constituency.

PROVINCIAL BREAKDOWNS

DUBLIN

The Count Simulator suggests that Sinn Féin would gain eight seats in Dublin sepite only a modest rise in their vote – this is mainly due to their under-nomination of candidates last time which led to them missing out on likely second seats in Dublin North-West, Dublin Bay North, Dublin Central, Dublin South-Central and Dublin South-West.

S.F.
F.G.
F.F.
GREENS
LABOUR
OTHERS
INDS
31%
25%
13%
7%
7%
10%
7%
18
14
3
4
1
4

Fianna Fáil are forecast to lose five, but paradoxically gain one in Dublin Mid-West narrowly beating a hypothetical third SF candidate for the final seat with the help of Fine Gael transfers. A caveat should also be entered that in Fianna Fáil were the runner-up by less than 2,000 vote in five constituencies suggesting that they could actually win up to 8 seats with a relatively modest improvement in their vote. Fine Gael perform much better in the capital than elsewhere in the country – they are up five points, and would make four gains – they would actually hold a majority (6 out of 11 seats) in the strongly middle-class constituencies of Dublin Bay South, Dublin Rathdown and Dun Laoghaire. The Green party are forecast to win four seats, but two of those are on thin margins.

CONSTITUENCY
FF
FG
LAB
SF
GP
OTH
IND
Gain
Loss
Dublin Bay North
1
1
2
1
SF
FF
Dublin Bay South
2
1
1
FG FF
Dublin Central
1
2
1
SF
GP
Dublin Fingal
1
1
2
1
SF
LAB
Dublin Mid-West
 1
1
2
FF SOL
Dublin North-West
1
2
SF,FG
SD,FF
Dublin Rathdown
2
1
Dublin South-Central
1
2
1
FG,SF
GP,IFC
Dublin South-West
1
2
1
 1
SF,IND
RISE,FF
Dublin West
1
1
2
SF
GP
Dun Laoghaire
2
1 1
FG,SF
GP,FF

LEINSTER

The Count simulator forecasts that Sinn Féin would win five extra seats in Leinster – in Carlow-Kilkenny and Wicklow (from the Greens) and Laois-Offaly, Louth and Wexford (from Independents). In addition, they could challenge for a second seat in Longford-Westmeath – presumably in Longford from Fianna Fáil.

S.F.
F.G.
F.F.
GREENS
LABOUR
OTHERS
INDS
37%
21%
21%
4%
5%
7%
6%
16
10
12
2
3

Despite their vote being down in Leinster, Fianna Faíl would be forecast to make a gain in Kildare South at the expense of an Independent. The Independent votes falls from 10% to 6% which applied equally would see all four Leinster Independents lose their seats. The Green Party’s two TDs would lose their seats, while the two Labour TDs would retain theirs. The 3 others are two Social Democrat TDs and one Aontu TD.

CONSTITUENCY
FF
FG
LAB
SF
GP
OTH
IND
Gain
Loss
Carlow-Kilkenny
2
1
2
SF
GP
Kildare North
1
1
1
1
Kildare South
2
1
1
 FF IND
Laois-Offaly
2
1
2
SF
IND
Longford-Westmeath
2
1
1
Louth
1
1
3
SF
IND
Meath East
1
1
1
Meath West
1
1
1
Wexford
1
1
1
2
SF
IND
Wicklow
1
1
2
1
SF
GP

MUNSTER

Opinion Polls have been suggesting a substantial rise in Sinn Féin support in Munster and accordingly the Count Simulator awards them ten gains – a gain in each constituency bar Clare where a hypothetical second candidate could come close. And it’s not without the bounds of possibility that Sinn Féin could challenge for a 3rd seat in Waterford.

S.F.
F.G.
F.F.
GREENS
LABOUR
OTHERS
INDS
36%
15%
24%
3%
3%
5%
16%
18
8
12
3

The small parties all suffer with Labour losing both their seats and a similar fate befalling the Greens. The Social Democrats would lose out to Sinn Fein also in Cork South-West, but Solidarity-People Before Profit would hold on in Cork North-Central at the expense of Fine Gael. Fianna Fáil would possibly gain a seat in Clare, but face losses in Cork South-Central and Cork North-West to Sinn Féin – in the former constituency however, Fine Gael are also in danger of losing a seat. It should be noted however – and this applies particularly to the two Labour seats – that seats particularly dependent on support in a defined rural area of a constituency are more impervious to national and regional trend. Independents also suffer heavily, losing 4 seats in the Sinn Féin surge.

CONSTITUENCY
FF
FG
LAB
SF
GP
OTH
IND
Gain
Loss
Clare
2
1
1 1 FF IND
Cork East
1
1
2
SF
LAB
Cork North-Central
 1 2 1 SF FG
Cork South-Central
 1 1 2 SF FF
Cork North-West
1 1 1 SF FF
Cork South-West
1 1 1 SF SD
Kerry
1 1 2 1 SF IND
Limerick City
1 1 2 SF GP
Limerick County
1 1 1 SF IND
Tipperary
1 2 2 SF LAB
Waterford
1 2 1 SF GP

CONNAUGHT-ULSTER

There is significant change forecast in Connaught-Ulster with Sinn Féin gaining six seats to take 14 of the 29 on offer and Independents losing three.

S.F.
F.G.
F.F.
GREENS
LABOUR
OTHERS
INDS
41%
20%
17%
2%
1%
7%
12%
14
6
5
4

The Independent vote drops by 5 points here in this analysis and this leads to losses in Donegal, Galway West and Galway-Roscommon; in the last constituency Fine Gael make the gain, but lose seats in neighbouring Sligo-Leitrim and Roscommon. Fianna Fáil lose in both Cavan-Monaghan and Galway East, but the margin in Galway East is narrow.

CONSTITUENCY
FF
FG
LAB
SF
GP
OTH
IND
Gain
Loss
Cavan-Monaghan
1 1 3 SF FF
Donegal
1 1 3 SF IND
Galway East
1 1 1 SF FF
Galway West
1 1 2 1 SF IND
Galway-Roscommon
1 1 1 FG IND
Mayo
1 1 2 SF FG
Sligo-Leitrim
1 2 1 SF FG

GOVERNMENT FORMATION

Neither the Government parties (74 seats) nor the Opposition Parties put together (77 seats) would reach the magic figure of 81 needed to secure a majority. The (technically) possible government formations would be : Sinn Féin and Fine Gael (104 seats); Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil (98 seats); Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Labour, the Greens, Social Democrats and Aontu (81 seats); and finally Sinn Féin and Labour, the Greens, Social Democrats, Solidarity-People Before Profit and Aontu (81 seats).

GovForm 1st June 2022

The final option would actually technically consist of eight different parties as Solidarity-People Before Profit is actually an umbrella title for three different parties : Solidarity, People Before Profit and Rise. Oh to be a fly on the wall in those government formation negotiations.

DEMOGRAPHICS

There are significant differences between the demographic make-up of the Government Bloc of parties and those of the Opposition Bloc – but also between parties within those respective blocs.

Starting with Social Class – the Government is significantly more popular with middle-class voters (49%) as opposed to Working-Class voters (35%); this is due to both Fine Gael and the Greens’ support being disproportionately middle-class. On the opposition side 56% of Working-Class voters favour those parties, compared to 41% of middle-class voters. This difference is totally down to the social profile of Sinn Fein’s vote which is disproportionately working-class.

PD 1st JUN 22 Soc Econ

Finally nearly two-thirds of farmers support the Government parties (except the Greens not surprisingly). However, the 22% for Sinn Féin is noteworthy – but the small sample size for farmers should be a caveat.

The Opposition Bloc fares much better than the Government amongst younger voters with a strong showing of 43% support for Sinn Féin and also accentuated support (13%) for the smaller parties.

PD 1st JUN 22 Age

Sinn Féin are as popular amongst middle-aged voters (44%) as they are amongst younger ones; the opposite is true of Fianna Fáil and now also Fine Gael who are as unpopular with middle-aged voters as they are with younger ones.

Finally, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael vie for the lead amongst older voters. Overall, the Government enjoys majority support amongst older voters.

PD 1st JUN 22 Location

In terms of location, Fianna Fáil do significantly better with rural voters, while Labour (who historically had a significant rural vote), the Greens and the smaller parties all do better in Urban Areas. Interestingly Sinn Féin – who historically would have fared better in urban areas – now do just as well in rural areas.

PD 1st JUN 22 Gender

Finally, Fine Gael do marginally better with female voters and Sinn Féin do marginally better with male ones

 

PREVIOUS POLL AVERAGES

The table below shows the seat totals for previous poll analyses since the 2020 General Election.

Fianna Fáil dipped below 20 expected seats in the latter half of 2020, but have since recovered, and have remained above 30 seats since the end of 2021.

Every single analysis has suggested gains for Sinn Féin and they have made fairly consistent progress since the end of 2020. By contrast in the middle of 2020, Fine Gael were registering over 60 seats but have now fallen back to the mid-thirties.

DATE FG FF GP GOV SF LAB Others OPP IND
MAR 2020 47 30 6 83 58 3 5 66 11
APR 2020 52 26 7 85 50 3 5 58 17
MAY 2020 59 22 7 88 48 3 4 55 17
JUL 2020 66 15 9 90 46 5 7 58 12
AUG 2020 63 16 5 84 49 5 7 61 15
JUN 2021 48 27 5 80 56 1 11 68 12
SEP 2021 46 29 5 80 53 5 10 68 15
OCT 2021 42 28 6 76 55 3 13 71 13
NOV 2021 39 25 7 71 61 3 13 77 12
DEC 2021 42 32 4 78 60 5 8 73 9
MAR 2022 34 34 4 72 62 3 10 75 13
APR 2022 38 37 4 79 59 4 11 74 7
MAY 2022 38 32 4 74 66 3 8 77 9

Both the Greens and the Independents have seen their numbers drop in recent times – though there has to be a caveat that Independents tend to be under-represented in polls outside of an election cycle.

MAIN POINTS

The current Government would not be returned on these numbers, although it is also unlikely that a combination of the opposition parties could form an alternative administration.

Sinn Féin would make sweeping gains, mainly at the expense of smaller parties and Independents.

The divide between Government and Opposition remains sharply stratified, with Sinn Féin polling much better among younger and working-class voters.

Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael do better amongst older voters and farmers.

Regionally, the Fine Gael vote rises in Dublin – with four seat gains – while Sinn Féin’s vote rises slightly. However, they would make eight gains in the capital due to their under-nomination of candidates last time.

In the provinces, Sinn Féin’s vote rises sharply (particularly in Munster) while Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael see a contraction in their vote.

The vote for Independents is down sharply, which would lead to a significantly diminished Independent representation. A note of caution though is that Independents tend to be under-represented in opinion polls outside an election cycle.

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