METHODOLOGY

The Country total and regional figures for each party/group are calculated using a time-weighted average from the last five poll. The Country Total is adjusted to ensure it is in line with the regional figures (some polls don’t issue regional data). The proportion each party loses (if anything) per region is then calculated. For instance if a party was at 18% and is now at 12%, it loses a third of its vote – if its vote was 24% in a constituency it falls to 16%, if it was 15% to 10% etc. Next it is determined what votes the gaining parties will receive – for instance Fianna Fáil votes might be (proportionately) more likely to go to Fine Gael than Sinn Féin etc. A simulation of a count in each constituency is processed – this uses transfer data from the 2020 General Election, and in 16 constituencies uses transfer data particular to that constituency (if we are looking at transfers based on 2020 transfer rates).

Also – in 2021 Sinn Féin received well over a quota worth of votes in many constituencies due to their only running one candidate (in Louth, Cavan-Monaghan and Donegal, they received well over two quotas with two candidates). In these constituencies, I’ve added a “dummy” 2nd SF candidate who takes one-third of the Sinn Fein vote.

It should be noted that these are merely the outcomes if regional swings were replicated in constituencies in that region. No attempt is made to factor in individual circumstances in each constituency.

PROVINCIAL BREAKDOWNS

DUBLIN

The Count Simulator suggests that Sinn Féin would gain eight seats in Dublin sepite only a modest rise in their vote – this is mainly due to their under-nomination of candidates last time which led to them missing out on likely second seats in Dublin North-West, Dublin Bay North, Dublin Central, Dublin South-Central and Dublin South-West.

Fianna Fáil are forecast to lose five, but paradoxically gain one in Dublin Mid-West narrowly beating a hypothetical third SF candidate for the final seat with the help of Fine Gael transfers. A caveat should also be entered that in Fianna Fáil were the runner-up by less than 2,000 vote in five constituencies suggesting that they could actually win up to 8 seats with a relatively modest improvement in their vote. Fine Gael perform much better in the capital than elsewhere in the country – they are up five points, and would make four gains – they would actually hold a majority (6 out of 11 seats) in the strongly middle-class constituencies of Dublin Bay South, Dublin Rathdown and Dun Laoghaire. The Green party are forecast to win four seats, but two of those are on thin margins.

LEINSTER

The Count simulator forecasts that Sinn Féin would win five extra seats in Leinster – in Carlow-Kilkenny and Wicklow (from the Greens) and Laois-Offaly, Louth and Wexford (from Independents). In addition, they could challenge for a second seat in Longford-Westmeath – presumably in Longford from Fianna Fáil.

Despite their vote being down in Leinster, Fianna Faíl would be forecast to make a gain in Kildare South at the expense of an Independent. The Independent votes falls from 10% to 6% which applied equally would see all four Leinster Independents lose their seats. The Green Party’s two TDs would lose their seats, while the two Labour TDs would retain theirs. The 3 others are two Social Democrat TDs and one Aontu TD.

MUNSTER

Opinion Polls have been suggesting a substantial rise in Sinn Féin support in Munster and accordingly the Count Simulator awards them ten gains – a gain in each constituency bar Clare where a hypothetical second candidate could come close. And it’s not without the bounds of possibility that Sinn Féin could challenge for a 3rd seat in Waterford.

The small parties all suffer with Labour losing both their seats and a similar fate befalling the Greens. The Social Democrats would lose out to Sinn Fein also in Cork South-West, but Solidarity-People Before Profit would hold on in Cork North-Central at the expense of Fine Gael. Fianna Fáil would possibly gain a seat in Clare, but face losses in Cork South-Central and Cork North-West to Sinn Féin – in the former constituency however, Fine Gael are also in danger of losing a seat. It should be noted however – and this applies particularly to the two Labour seats – that seats particularly dependent on support in a defined rural area of a constituency are more impervious to national and regional trend. Independents also suffer heavily, losing 4 seats in the Sinn Féin surge.

CONNAUGHT-ULSTER

There is significant change forecast in Connaught-Ulster with Sinn Féin gaining six seats to take 14 of the 29 on offer and Independents losing three.

The Independent vote drops by 5 points here in this analysis and this leads to losses in Donegal, Galway West and Galway-Roscommon; in the last constituency Fine Gael make the gain, but lose seats in neighbouring Sligo-Leitrim and Roscommon. Fianna Fáil lose in both Cavan-Monaghan and Galway East, but the margin in Galway East is narrow.

GOVERNMENT FORMATION

Neither the Government parties (74 seats) nor the Opposition Parties put together (77 seats) would reach the magic figure of 81 needed to secure a majority. The (technically) possible government formations would be : Sinn Féin and Fine Gael (104 seats); Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil (98 seats); Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Labour, the Greens, Social Democrats and Aontu (81 seats); and finally Sinn Féin and Labour, the Greens, Social Democrats, Solidarity-People Before Profit and Aontu (81 seats).

The final option would actually technically consist of eight different parties as Solidarity-People Before Profit is actually an umbrella title for three different parties : Solidarity, People Before Profit and Rise. Oh to be a fly on the wall in those government formation negotiations.