Wexford Population

The preliminary census returns for Wexford indicate a population of 163,527 souls. If the national totals of Dail seats were to increase to 171 (the minimum required according to the overall population figures) Wexford as a 5 seat constituency would deviate by over 9% from the national average ratio of population, meaning that it would require a transfer of over ten thousand population into another constituency.

TABLE 1 – WEXFORD POPULATION RATIO

Dail Size	Number of seats	Deviation
171	5.46	+9.2%
176	5,62	-6.3%
181	5.78	-3.7%

However, if the Boundary Commission were to suggest say 176 seats it would be more likely that population would be transferred into Wexford to create two three-seaters. It the Commission were to insist upon 181 seats nationally the level of deviation from the national average for six seats would be under 4%  which would mean that  Boundary changes would not be necessary

The table below shows the (fractional) number of seats available to each county or current multi-county constituency based on the preliminary census data – those units that are within the permitted range of deviation are highlighted in Bold.

Wexford could theoretically exchange population with Wicklow, Carlow or Kilkenny.

TABLE 2 – NUMBER OF SEATS PER CONSTITUENCY/COUNTY AT VARIOUS DAIL SIZES

CONSTITUENCY	171 seats	176 seats	181 seats
Carlow and Kilkenny	5.53	5.69	5.85
Kildare	8.24	8.48	8.72
Laois and Offaly	5.82	5.99	6.16
Longford and Westmeath	4.76	4.89	5.03
Louth	4.64	4.78	4.91
Meath	7.35	7.57	7.78
Wexford	5.46	5.62	5.78
Wicklow	5.19	5.34	5.49
TOTAL	46.99	48.36	49.73

SCENARIO A – A 176 SEAT DAIL

In the 176 seat scenario, a sizeable transfer of population (15,000-20,000) would allow Wexford to remain a five-seater, and Wicklow to be split into two three-seaters. A similar transfer to Carlow and Kilkenny could allow Carlow-Kilkenny to be split into two 3-seaters, but there are geographic considerations as well – for instance mountains dominate the border between Carlow and Wexford.

Alternatively, of maybe 7,000 to 10,000 population from Wicklow to Wexford would allow the formation of two 3-seaters in Wexford.

Below both of these options will be examined in turn.

Option 1 – A five seat Wexford constituency with transfer to Wicklow

Given that in the context of a 176 seat Dail, Wexford’s population would be outside the variation from the national average that is permitted, a sizeable population transfer to Wicklow covering the western rural part of Gorey Electoral Area  and parts of Enniscorthy and Kilmuckridge LEAs would allow Wexford to remain a 5 seater.

MAP 1 – THE NEW FIVE SEAT WEXFORD CONSTITUENCY

This option would actually largely shore up the five sitting TDs as the two main challengers in 2020 (Malcolm Byrne of Fianna Fáil and Michael D’Arcy of Fine Gael) have most to lose by this constituency configuration – between them they took 17% of the vote in 2020, but account for 36% of the vote transferring to Wicklow.

TABLE 3 – CANDIDATE PERFORMANCE IN THE NEW WEXFORD

NAME	PARTY	2020 Vote		Transferring to Wicklow		New Constituency
Mythen	SF	18717	24.9%	2673	23.8%	16044	25.1%
Howlin	LAB	9223	12.3%	764	6.8%	8459	13.2%
Browne	FF	8058	10.7%	1167	10.4%	6891	10.8%
Kehoe	FG	6337	8.4%	819	7.3%	5518	8.6%
Murphy	IND	5825	7.8%	680	6.0%	5145	8.1%
Byrne	FF	6145	8.2%	1890	16.8%	4255	6.7%
D’Arcy	FG	6472	8.6%	2240	19.9%	4232	6.6%
Sheehan	FF	4366	5.8%	171	1.5%	4195	6.6%
Carthy	IND	3024	4.0%	46	0.4%	2978	4.7%
Roseingrave	GP	2028	2.7%	357	3.2%	1671	2.6%
Codd	AON	1518	2.0%	186	1.7%	1332	2.1%
McDonald	FF	1351	1.8%	49	0.4%	1302	2.0%
Wadding	A-P	1116	1.5%	189	1.7%	927	1.5%
O’Shea	IFC	825	1.1%	94	0.8%	731	1.1%
Murphy	IND	88	0.1%	-83	-0.7%	171	0.3%

Looking at the party figures, the transfer would see Fine Gael fall below a quota but would most likely retain their seat.

TABLE 4 – PARTY PERFORMANCE IN THE NEW WEXFORD

PARTY	2020 Vote		Transferring to Wicklow		New Constituency
SF	18717	24.9%	2673	23.8%	16044	25.1%
LAB	9223	12.3%	764	6.8%	8459	13.2%
FF	19920	26.5%	3277	29.1%	16643	26.1%
FG	12809	17.1%	3059	27.2%	9750	15.3%
GP	2028	2.7%	357	3.2%	1671	2.6%
AON	1518	2.0%	186	1.7%	1332	2.1%
A-P	1116	1.5%	189	1.7%	927	1.5%
IFC	825	1.1%	94	0.8%	731	1.1%
IND	8937	11.9%	643	5.7%	8294	13.0%

Option 2 – Two three seat Wexford constituencies with transfer from Wicklow

This would actually be a fairly neat division, with the three Northern LEAs (plus part of South-West Wicklow) forming Wexford North, while the three southern Wexford LEAs form Wexford South.

Looking first at Wexford North, it is predominantly rural with over half the voters based in rural areas, and just over a third voting in larger towns (ie those with population over 5,000).

Over 90% of the populations lies in the Wexford part of the putative constituency, and less than 10% in Wicklow where the vote base is overwhelmingly rural – the only urban settlements are the villages of Tinahely, Carnew and Shillelagh. Gorey and Enniscorthy are the only large towns in the Wexford portion of the constituency.

TABLE 5 – MAIN CANDIDATE PERFORMANCE IN WEXFORD NORTH

NAME	PARTY	VOTE	%
Mythen	SF	9427	25.1%
Browne	FF	5262	14.0%
Byrne	FF	5210	13.9%
D’Arcy	FG	4699	12.5%
Kehoe	FG	3827	10.2%
Howlin	LAB	2069	5.5%
Murphy	IND	1554	4.1%

There would be tight competition for the seats amongst the candidates of Fianna Fáil (Malcolm Byrne, James Browne TD) and Fine Gael (Michael D’Arcy, Paul Kehoe TD), with Byrne and Browne ending up practically equal.

TABLE 6 – PARTY PERFORMANCE IN WEXFORD NORTH

PARTY	Wexford		Wicklow		TOTAL
SF	9427	27.2%	858	29.0%	10285	27.3%
FF	10704	30.9%	608	20.5%	11312	30.0%
FG	8526	24.6%	1067	36.0%	9593	25.5%
LAB	2069	6.0%	67	2.3%	2136	5.7%
GP	844	2.4%	93	3.1%	937	2.5%
A-P	446	1.3%	0	0.0%	446	1.2%
AON	432	1.2%	33	1.1%	465	1.2%
IFC	375	1.1%	0	0.0%	375	1.0%
SD	0	0.0%	108	3.6%	108	0.3%
IND	1872	5.4%	126	4.3%	1998	5.3%
	34695		2960		37655

The majority of the votes are split fairly evenly between the three large parties, and each could expect to take one seat each.

MAP 2 – THE THREE SEAT WEXFORD NORTH CONSTITUENCY

Fianna Fáil top the poll across the majority of the putative constituency including in Gorey (37%). Fine Gael topped in all of the Wicklow part of the constituency – except in Carnew where Sinn Féin took 37%. Sinn Féin themselves did best in Urban areas, taking 40% in both Enniscorthy and Courtown. The only party to take over 50% in a polling station was Fine Gael who took 54% in the Ballyconnell box in Wicklow.

TABLE 7 – VOTE BY SETTLEMENT SIZE

CATEGORY	FF	FG	SF	OTH
Large and Medium Towns	32%	20%	35%	13%
Small Towns and Villages	26%	24%	31%	19%
Rural	30%	29%	22%	19%

Fianna Fáil did roughly across the same across all settlement types, while Fine Gael and Independents  did better in rural areas. Finally Sinn Féin did markedly better in Urban areas.

Looking now at the putative Wexford South, this constituency would be bookended by a large town in the East (Wexford), a medium-sized town in the West (New Ross), and in between mainly rural areas with few large villages or small towns. Wexford and New Ross account for a third of the voters in 2020, while small villages and rural areas account for nearly 60%.

TABLE 8 – CANDIDATE PERFORMANCE IN WEXFORD SOUTH

NAME	PARTY	VOTE	PERCENTAGE
Mythen	SF	8613	22.5%
Howlin	LAB	6794	17.8%
Sheehan	FF	4122	10.8%
Murphy	IND	4036	10.6%
Carthy	IND	2736	7.2%
Browne	FF	2532	6.6%
Kehoe	FG	2243	5.9%
D’Arcy	FG	1794	4.7%
McDonald	FF	1190	3.1%
Roseingrave	GP	1076	2.8%
Codd	AON	1028	2.7%
Byrne	FF	904	2.4%
Wadding	A-P	552	1.4%
O’Shea	IFC	440	1.2%
Murphy	IND	154	0.4%

Johnny Mythen (SF) and Brendan Howlin (LAB) would be guaranteed a seat on these figures. Mythen of course would be unlikely to run in this area as he is actually based in Enniscorthy, but it goes to show there would be a very likely Sinn Féin seat irregardless of candidate. Howlin benefits from continued strong support in Wexford Town and its rural hinterland.

The third and final seat would likely be between Michael Sheehan (FF) and Verona Murphy (IND) who are both based in the west of the area. Sheehan polled very strongly in New Ross town, but didn’t pick up enough votes in surrounding rural areas to put himself into contention in the 2020 General Election.

TABLE 9 – PARTY PERFORMANCE IN WEXFORD SOUTH

PARTY	Wexford		Kilmore		New Ross		Total
SF	3672	27.1%	2483	22.1%	2458	18.3%	8613	22.5%
LAB	4395	32.4%	1641	14.6%	758	5.6%	6794	17.8%
FF	1897	14.0%	1827	16.3%	5024	37.4%	8748	22.9%
FG	1312	9.7%	1052	9.4%	1673	12.4%	4037	10.6%
GP	436	3.2%	301	2.7%	339	2.5%	1076	2.8%
AON	278	2.1%	532	4.7%	218	1.6%	1028	2.7%
A-P	206	1.5%	160	1.4%	186	1.4%	552	1.4%
IFC	161	1.2%	145	1.3%	134	1.0%	440	1.2%
IND	1202	8.9%	3070	27.4%	2654	19.7%	6926	18.1%

The Table above shows the party vote in each of the three Electoral areas. Nearly two-thirds of the Labour vote came from the heavily urban Wexford area; Sinn Féin also polled best here, though their vote was more widely distributed. Independents took over a quarter of the vote in Kilmore, reflecting the strength of Ger Carthy in the east of the area and Verona Murphy along its western border.  Finally Fianna Fáil took 37% of the vote in the New Ross area – long a stronghold of the party – and 50% in the town.

MAP 2 – THE THREE SEAT WEXFORD SOUTH CONSTITUENCY

As might be expected, Labour dominated the area around Wexford Town, taking 35% in the town itself and 25-30% in Castlebridge and much of the adjoining rural areas. Independents did best along the southern coastal border of the constituency, taking 57% in Ramsgrange and 51% in Kilrane, Fianna Fail polled very well in New Ross town as mentioned above, and also took 50% in Poulpeasty and 51% in Rathgarogue. Finally Fine Gael would only take 11% in this putative constituency, but would top the poll in Glynn polling station with 22%.