Wicklow Population
The preliminary census returns for Wicklow indicate a population of 155,485 souls. If the national totals of Dail seats were to increase to 171 (the minimum required according to the overall population figures) Wicklow as a 5 seat constituency would deviate by just under 4% from the national average ratio of population : seat.
TABLE 1 – WICKLOW POPULATION RATIO
| Dail Size | Number of seats | Deviation |
| 171 | 5.19 | +3.8% |
| 176 | 5.34 | +6.8% |
| 181 | 5.49 | +9.8% |
However, if the Boundary Commission were to suggest say 176 seats or 181 seats nationally the level of deviation from the national would be in the order of 7% and 10% respectively, which would require Boundary changes to be made involving at least one other county.
The question – is what other county? The table below shows the (fractional) number of seats available to each county or current multi-county constituency based on the preliminary census data – those units that are within the permitted range of deviation are highlighted in Bold.
Previously, part of North-East Carlow formed part of the Wicklow constituency in order to ensure it would meet the population requirements for 5 seats.
TABLE 2 – NUMBER OF SEATS PER CONSTITUENCY/COUNTY AT VARIOUS DAIL SIZES
| CONSTITUENCY | 171 seats | 176 seats | 181 seats |
| Carlow and Kilkenny | 5.53 | 5.69 | 5.85 |
| Kildare | 8.24 | 8.48 | 8.72 |
| Laois and Offaly | 5.82 | 5.99 | 6.16 |
| Longford and Westmeath | 4.76 | 4.89 | 5.03 |
| Louth | 4.64 | 4.78 | 4.91 |
| Meath | 7.35 | 7.57 | 7.78 |
| Wexford | 5.46 | 5.62 | 5.78 |
| Wicklow | 5.19 | 5.34 | 5.49 |
| TOTAL | 46.99 | 48.36 | 49.73 |
SCENARIO A – A 176 SEAT DAIL
In the 176 seat scenario, a small transfer of population (3,000-5,000) would allow Wicklow to remain a five-seater, and Carlow-Kilkenny to be split into two three-seaters. However, a potential problem is that the population of both Kildare and Wexford are outside the bounds of permitted deviation for their closest integral number of seats based on their estimated population. The situation in Kildare could possibly be remedied with a minor transfer of population with Laois and Offaly, but the situation in Wexford is more complex as it is essentially landlocked by Carlow, Kilkenny and Wicklow. One potential solution is transfers of population from Wicklow into both Carlow and Wexford, but this is messy not least because of the position of Arklow close to the Wicklow-Wexford border.
The other options are :
- A minor transfer of population from Wicklow into Kildare (or a more significant transfer of population into Wicklow from Kildare), while simultaneously creating a five seater and two three-seaters in Carlow, Kilkenny and Wexford.
- A minor transfer of population from South Kildare to create two three-seaters in Carlow and Kilkenny, while simultaneously creating a five seater and two three-seaters in Wicklow and Wexford.
Below each of these options will be examined in turn.
Option 1 – A five seat Wicklow constituency with transfer to Kildare
Given that in the context of a 176 seat Dail, Wicklow’s population would be outside the variation from the national average that is permitted, a small population transfer to Kildare in the vicinity of Blessington totalling 8,807 souls would allow constituencies totalling 9 seats in Kildare and a single 5 seat constituency in Wicklow.
Given that all five sitting Wicklow TDs are from the Bray/Greystones area, this would presumably be their collective desired option.
| Candidate | Party | 2020 Vote | Transferring to Kildare North | New Constituency | ||||
| Brady | SF | 17297 | 24.3% | 929 | 24.3% | 16368 | 24.3% | |
| Harris | FG | 8765 | 12.3% | 221 | 5.8% | 8544 | 12.7% | |
| Whitmore | SD | 7039 | 9.9% | 296 | 7.7% | 6743 | 10.0% | |
| Mathews | GP | 5634 | 7.9% | 281 | 7.3% | 5353 | 7.9% | |
| Donnelly | FF | 5467 | 7.7% | 427 | 11.2% | 5040 | 7.5% | |
| Doyle | FG | 4940 | 6.9% | 114 | 3.0% | 4826 | 7.2% | |
| Timmins | FG | 4679 | 6.6% | 894 | 23.4% | 3785 | 5.6% | |
| Casey | FF | 4473 | 6.3% | 199 | 5.2% | 4274 | 6.3% | |
| Snell | IND | 3050 | 4.3% | 161 | 4.2% | 2889 | 4.3% | |
| Behan | IND | 2988 | 4.2% | 35 | 0.9% | 2953 | 4.4% | |
| Cox | IND | 1805 | 2.5% | 72 | 1.9% | 1733 | 2.6% | |
| O’Brien | LAB | 1727 | 2.4% | 47 | 1.2% | 1680 | 2.5% | |
| Connor | AON | 1051 | 1.5% | 28 | 0.7% | 1023 | 1.5% | |
| Briggs | S-P | 1037 | 1.5% | 64 | 1.7% | 973 | 1.4% | |
| Dunne | IND | 478 | 0.7% | 33 | 0.9% | 445 | 0.7% | |
| Gunning | IND | 399 | 0.6% | 14 | 0.4% | 385 | 0.6% | |
| Keddy | IND | 219 | 0.3% | 5 | 0.1% | 214 | 0.3% | |
| Larkin | IND | 173 | 0.2% | 7 | 0.2% | 166 | 0.2% | |
| Fitzgerald | IND | 79 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0% | 78 | 0.1% | |
| King | IND | 20 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 20 | 0.0% | |
Given the relatively small scale of the population transfer, on the 2020 numbers there would be no substantive change to the result in Wicklow based on this configuration. The last count runner-up Andrew Doyle (Fine Gael) would get slightly closer on the last count to Stephen Donnelly (Fianna Fáil) and Stephen Matthews (Green Party). The only candidate to see a significant change to their vote would be Billy Timmins of Fine Gael who loses over 800 votes and would probably be eliminated a few counts earlier.
Option 2 – Three seat Wicklow East and Wicklow West constituencies with transfer from Kildare
This would be a more radical solution – and one that would have several sitting TDs reaching for the Gaviscon or Xanax (or possibly both). It would see a three seat Wicklow East running along the N11 encompassing the North-East Wicklow commuter belt towns of Bray, Greystones and Wicklow, and a much more rural Wicklow West taking in the rest of the county as well as a significant proportion of south-east Kildare.
While this might seem quite radical, it is not without precedent as roughly the same portion of Kildare was moved into Wicklow between 1992 and 1997.
Looking first at the proposed Wicklow East, despite its small geographic size, no less than four parties (plus Independents) top the polls in different areas – Sinn Féin in most parts of Bray (including over 50% in the north-west of the town), Kilmacanogue (although in Kilmacanogue village itself, Fine Gael topped the poll with a third of the vote), Kilcoole and Newcastle. Fine Gael topped the poll in Greystones – the Social Democrats took neighbouring Delgany – and also Enniskerry.
The Greens seem to have topped the poll in north-east Bray between the Dargle and the county border (though I’m open to correction on that), while Independents took the most votes in Wicklow Town and surrounding areas largely due to the candidacy of local Councillor John Snell.
Only three candidates would poll over 10% in this scenario – outgoing TDs John Brady (Sinn Féin), Simon Harris (Fine Gael) and Jennifer Whitmore (Social Democrats).
| Candidate | Party | 2020 Vote | Transferring to Wicklow West | New Constituency | ||||
| Brady | SF | 17297 | 24.3% | 7613 | 27.2% | 9684 | 22.4% | |
| Harris | FG | 8765 | 12.3% | 2111 | 7.5% | 6654 | 15.4% | |
| Whitmore | SD | 7039 | 9.9% | 1615 | 5.8% | 5424 | 12.5% | |
| Mathews | GP | 5634 | 7.9% | 1532 | 5.5% | 4102 | 9.5% | |
| Donnelly | FF | 5467 | 7.7% | 1807 | 6.4% | 3660 | 8.5% | |
| Doyle | FG | 4940 | 6.9% | 1718 | 6.1% | 3222 | 7.4% | |
| Timmins | FG | 4679 | 6.6% | 4265 | 15.2% | 414 | 1.0% | |
| Casey | FF | 4473 | 6.3% | 2971 | 10.6% | 1502 | 3.5% | |
| Snell | IND | 3050 | 4.3% | 738 | 2.6% | 2312 | 5.3% | |
| Behan | IND | 2988 | 4.2% | 506 | 1.8% | 2482 | 5.7% | |
| Cox | IND | 1805 | 2.5% | 1044 | 3.7% | 761 | 1.8% | |
| O’Brien | LAB | 1727 | 2.4% | 468 | 1.7% | 1259 | 2.9% | |
| Connor | AON | 1051 | 1.5% | 393 | 1.4% | 658 | 1.5% | |
| Briggs | S-P | 1037 | 1.5% | 449 | 1.6% | 588 | 1.4% | |
| Dunne | IND | 478 | 0.7% | 394 | 1.4% | 84 | 0.2% | |
| Gunning | IND | 399 | 0.6% | 212 | 0.8% | 187 | 0.4% | |
| Keddy | IND | 219 | 0.3% | 103 | 0.4% | 116 | 0.3% | |
| Larkin | IND | 173 | 0.2% | 28 | 0.1% | 145 | 0.3% | |
| Fitzgerald | IND | 79 | 0.1% | 45 | 0.2% | 34 | 0.1% | |
| King | IND | 20 | 0.0% | 11 | 0.0% | 9 | 0.0% | |
Brady is well ahead of the field and would be guaranteed re-election, as indeed would Harris as the Fine Gael vote adds up to just under a quota. Whitmore would be challenged by the other two outgoing TDs Stephen Matthews (Social Democrats) and Stephen Donnelly (Fianna Fáil), but a cursory look at the count in 2020 shows that Whitmore was very transfer-friendly and between the 1st and 14th count took 6,365 transfers compared to 5,415 for Donnelly (which includes 3,062 from his running-mate Pat Casey) and 3,474 for Matthews.
Wicklow West would be a sprawling constituency taking in the rest of Wicklow as well as East Kildare from Ballymore down to Castledermot. Fine Gael topped the poll in much of the west and south of Wicklow, and also in the Kildare portion (save around Castledermot), while Sinn Féin took the most votes in Arklow, Newtownmountkennedy and also Carnew.
The likely result from this constituency would be a Sinn Féin candidate, Billy Timmins (Fine Gael) and probably Pat Casey (Fianna Fáil) for the last seat.
| Party | Transferring from Wicklow | Transferring from Kildare | New Constituency | |||
| FG | 8251 | 29.6% | 2532 | 29.3% | 10783 | 29.5% |
| SF | 7707 | 27.7% | 1488 | 17.2% | 9195 | 25.2% |
| FF | 4877 | 17.5% | 1498 | 17.3% | 6375 | 17.5% |
| SD | 1776 | 6.4% | 255 | 2.9% | 2031 | 5.6% |
| GP | 1314 | 4.7% | 344 | 4.0% | 1658 | 4.5% |
| LAB | 496 | 1.8% | 1048 | 12.1% | 1544 | 4.2% |
| AON | 305 | 1.1% | 143 | 1.7% | 448 | 1.2% |
| S-P | 311 | 1.1% | 147 | 1.7% | 458 | 1.3% |
| IND | 2824 | 10.1% | 1192 | 13.8% | 4016 | 11.0% |
Option 3 – Three seat Wicklow East and Wicklow West constituencies with transfer from Wexford
This option sees the same configuration as the Wicklow constituencies as option 2 – but the extra population is brought in from Wexford rather than Kildare. The area transferred is the largely rural north and west of the Gorey Electoral area as well as adjacent parts of Enniscorthy Electoral area which includes the villages of Camolin, Bunclody and Ferns – some 17,143 souls in all.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael both took just under a third of the vote in the area of Wexford going into Wicklow, and just under a quarter went to Sinn Féin. Senator Malcolm Byrne (Fianna Fáil) and Michael D’Arcy (Fine Gael) both polled strongly in the Wexford portion of the putative constituency, but in both cases the majority of their vote would have remained in Wexford.
| Party | Transferring from Wicklow | Transferring from Wexford | New Constituency | ||||
| FG | 8251 | 29.6% | 2813 | 31.1% | 11064 | 30.0% | |
| SF | 7707 | 27.7% | 1996 | 22.0% | 9703 | 26.3% | |
| FF | 4877 | 17.5% | 2809 | 31.0% | 7686 | 20.8% | |
| SD | 1776 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 1776 | 4.8% | |
| GP | 1314 | 4.7% | 249 | 2.7% | 1563 | 4.2% | |
| LAB | 496 | 1.8% | 404 | 4.5% | 900 | 2.4% | |
| AON | 305 | 1.1% | 128 | 1.4% | 433 | 1.2% | |
| S-P | 311 | 1.1% | 71 | 0.8% | 382 | 1.0% | |
| IFC | 0 | 0.0% | 84 | 0.9% | 84 | 0.2% | |
| IND | 2824 | 10.1% | 504 | 5.6% | 3328 | 9.0% | |
On the basis of the above figures, the result in the putative constituency would have been straight-forward – one seat each for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin each with the other parties struggling to save their deposits.