I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
CONTENTS
Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points
In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.
Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.
However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.
Continue reading What the Electoral Commission might do : South-West Leinster
Carol Nolan was first elected to the Birr Electoral Area of Offaly County Council in 2014, taking just over 10% of the vote and being elected on the 5th count (with Fine Gael transfers). She also took a quarter of John Leahy’s first count surplus – Leahy outpolled her by more than 2 to 1 in this contest, but she was to best him in both the 2016 and 2020 General Elections.
The 2016 General Election
The 2020 General Election
Changes between 2016 and 2020
Conclusion
The Overall Yes vote in the Marriage Vote in Wexford was 63.6% – some 1.5%
Below is the general map of the vote with the highest Yes votes being cast in around the four larger towns.
MAP 1 – YES VOTE IN COUNTY WEXFORD
Continue reading The Marriage Equality vote in Wexford in 2015
I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
CONTENTS
Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points
The preliminary census returns for Wexford indicate a population of 163,527 souls. If the national totals of Dail seats were to increase to 171 (the minimum required according to the overall population figures) Wexford as a 5 seat constituency would deviate by over 9% from the national average ratio of population, meaning that it would require a transfer of over ten thousand population into another constituency.
TABLE 1 – WEXFORD POPULATION RATIO
| Dail Size | Number of seats | Deviation |
| 171 | 5.46 | +9.2% |
| 176 | 5,62 | -6.3% |
| 181 | 5.78 | -3.7% |
However, if the Boundary Commission were to suggest say 176 seats it would be more likely that population would be transferred into Wexford to create two three-seaters. It the Commission were to insist upon 181 seats nationally the level of deviation from the national average for six seats would be under 4% which would mean that Boundary changes would not be necessary
The preliminary census returns for Wicklow indicate a population of 155,485 souls. If the national totals of Dail seats were to increase to 171 (the minimum required according to the overall population figures) Wicklow as a 5 seat constituency would deviate by just under 4% from the national average ratio of population : seat.
TABLE 1 – WICKLOW POPULATION RATIO
| Dail Size | Number of seats | Deviation |
| 171 | 5.19 | +3.8% |
| 176 | 5.34 | +6.8% |
| 181 | 5.49 | +9.8% |
However, if the Boundary Commission were to suggest say 176 seats or 181 seats nationally the level of deviation from the national would be in the order of 7% and 10% respectively, which would require Boundary changes to be made involving at least one other county.
I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
CONTENTS
Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points
I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
CONTENTS
Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points
Veteran Dublin Inner City activist and politician Christy Burke has been contesting national elections for the past forty years, but the closest the former IRA man and Concerned Parents Against Drugs activist came to being elected was in 2020 on his tenth attempt when he was beaten on the last count by 220 votes.
As a young man, Christy Burke was in the IRA and sided with the Provisionals in the 1970 split. He later spent some time in Portlaoise prison as a consequence.
His first electoral outing in Dublin Central for Sinn Féin was in February 1982, when he took 1,458 (3%) of the vote and was eliminated on the 6th count after only gaining 47 votes in the intervening counts. It has to be said by way of mitigation that he was fishing out of the same pond as the late Tony Gregory (who won a seat for the first time at this election taking 4,703 votes) and Michael White of Sinn Féin the Workers’ Party (who took 1,672 votes). Nearly 60% of his transferred votes went to Gregory (36%) and White (23%)
Continue reading Christy Burke – If at first you don’t succeed….
