This post is going to have a look at my calculated poll as of the First of May – I’m currently finishing off my new constituency database, so I don’t have seat projections in this post.

Instead I plan to have a look at demographic trends in current polls. To this end, I plan to use poll data from the following pollsters : MRBI, Red C Research, Ireland Thinks, Behaviours & Attitudes and OpinionsIE.

The calculations are based on a time-weighted average of the 10 latest polls (or 5 in the case of the overall vote) in each case. Given that demographic breakdowns are available from some pollsters and not others, demographic figures are adjusted to the Overall vote for each party.

Firstly the current polling average as of May 1st.

The Braid Electoral Area lies largely to the east of Ballymena town touching upon the Glens of Antrim to the far north-east of the area where the only significant Catholic population in the area lies around the Village of Cargan. The Protestant Population is overwhelmingly Presbyterian.

In 1985, the new Braid Electoral Area replaced the previous Ballymena A which seems to have covered much of the same area. Independent James Woulahan was defending his seat and seemed set for victory having got just under 97% of a quota.

The U.U.P were on 2.12 quotas and the D.U.P. on 2.91 quotas.

This post will look at some of the quirky and unusual results that have been thrown up by our PR-STV system.

Galway South was a new constituency, created by the division of the four seat Galway East into two new three seaters, Galway North and Galway South. Of the four Galway East TDs, two – Patrick Beegan and Frank Fahy (the Ceann Comhairle) opted to run in the new Galway South. Both were Fianna Fáil. The other two TDs (John Donnellan of Clann Na Talmhan and Mark Killilea of Fianna Fáil opted to run in Galway North

The advent of Clann Na Talmhan in the 1943 General Election had decimated Fine Gael support – they went from taking 30% and a seat in 1938 to only 8% in 1943. In 1944 they didn’t even contest the constituency.

Below I’m going to look at the patterns in Sinn Féin’s polling patterns since the 2020 General Election.

I’m doing this by means of averages calculated by use of data from ten time-weighted polls per value. This allows for longer-term trends to be apparent at the expense of a slight lag in temporal accuracy. Data from MRBI, RED C Research, Ireland Thinks and Behaviours and Attitudes polls.

The first map below shows the changes that took place in Sinn Féin’s overall poll rating and its standings amongst middle-class and working-class voters from the start of 2019 until the Election in February.

Continue reading A Quick Look at Sinn Féin’s Polling Patterns….. →

Meath East becomes a four-seater with the return of the areas in North Meath which were previously in Cavan-Monaghan as well as the Bettystown-Laytown area which was previously in Louth.

Meath East was first contested in 2007, when it returned two Fianna Fáil TDs and one Fine Gael TD.  In 2011, both Labour and Fine Gael made gains at the expense of Fianna Fáil. Fianna Fáil regained a seat from Labour in 2016, while Sinn Féin gained a seat from Fine Gael in 2020.

The constituency consists of the easternmost and northernmost parts of Meath. In the south-east lie the towns of Ratoath and Dunboyne, former villages which experienced recent rapid growth; Ashbourne nearby lies on the Dublin border and also experienced rapid growth. In the north-east the towns of Bettystown and Laytown lie along the Irish sea coast, while the ancient town of Kells is in the far west of the constituency.

THE BIGGEST PARTIES PER DED IN 2020

Continue reading The new Meath East constituency →

Mayo becomes a five-seater with the return of the Ballinrobe hinterland from Galway West.

Between 1923 and 1969, the constituency was divided into two constituencues, Mayo North and Mayo South.

Mayo North was one of the five constituencies that returned a rump Sinn Féin candidate in June 1927.  It also hosted Republican Tom Maguire (1921 until 1927) who in 1986 gave his blessing to Republican Sinn Fein in the aftermath of the Republican schism of that year; he died in 1993 at the age of 101.

Fianna Fáil held two out of three seats from 1937 until 1951 when Thomas O’Hara took a seat for Clann Na Talmhan on his third attempt. He held it in 1954 but lost in 1957 – he then won as a Fine Gael TD in 1965 and 1969 (for Mayo East). Joseph Leneghan ran unsuccessfully for Fine Gael in 1944 and 1951 before winning a seat in as an Independent in 1961 – he lost in 1965 but was elected again in 1969 this time for Fianna Fáil. In 1965 Fine Gael took two out of three seats for the first time; they took 49% just behind Fianna Fáil on 49.7%.

In Mayo South, Cumann na nGaedhal won three out of seats in 1923 – they lost one to Thomas O’Connell of Labour in June 1927 who topped the poll. In 1933 the first four candidates on the first count were Fianna Fáil, and the other four were Fine Gael. Between 1932 and 1943 the result was three seats for Fianna Fáil and two seats for Fine Gael – this pattern was broken in the latter year by the emergence of Clann Na Talmhan who won two seats. Fine Gael lost their seat in 1944, and failed to regain it until Henry Kenny (father of Enda) won it back for them.

In 1969 two new three seat constituencies of Mayo East and Mayo West were introduced. Fine Gael won two seats that year in Mayo East, and in 1973 won two seats in Mayo West – despite Fianna Fáil winning over half the vote. Otherwise each constituency returned two Fianna Fáil and one Fine Gael TDs until their abolition after 1992.

Fine Gael were dominant in the new five seat constituency winning three seats in 1997 and 2007 and four seats in 2011.

THE BIGGEST PARTIES PER DED IN 2020

Continue reading The new Mayo Constituency →

Kildare South remains a four-seater with the areas in Laois and Offaly transferring to the two new county constituencies and also the villages of Caragh and Twomilehouse to Kildare North.

The constituency has existed since 1997, when Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour won a seat each – Fianna Fáil won a second seat in 2002 and 2007. They held one seat in 2011, and regained a second from Labour in 2016. The constituency became a four-seater in 2020, but with the Sean O’Fearghail being the incumbent Ceann Comhairle, it was contested as a three-seater with Independent Cathal Berry being the surprise winner of a seat.

THE BIGGEST PARTIES PER DED IN 2020

Continue reading The new Kildare South constituency →

Dublin Mid-West expands to a five-seater with the addition of the Fettercairn area of Tallaght.

The constituency has existed since 2002, when Fianna Fáil, the Progressive Democrats (Mary Harney) and the Greens won a seat each.  It has become markedly more left-wing since 2007 with 3 of the 4 seats now held by left-wing candidates.

THE BIGGEST PARTIES PER DED IN 2020

Continue reading The new Dublin Mid-West →

Cork North-Central expands to a five-seater with significant changes to its boundaries – areas south of the river go into Cork South-Central, while the large towns of Ballincollig (now technically within the city boundaries although realistically not physically yet a part of the city proper) and Mallow come in.

THE BIGGEST PARTIES PER DED IN 2020

Continue reading The new Cork North-Central Constituency →