The Tallyriffic Predictor’s analysis of the Millward Brown poll on a constituency-by-constituency basis returns the following results :
OTHERS16%11
| PARTY | VOTE | SEATS |
| FIANNA FAIL | 33% | 60 |
| FINE GAEL | 25% | 47 |
| SINN FEIN | 20% | 35 |
| LABOUR | 6% | 4 |
| Others | 16% | 11 |
It might seem odd that Labour only win 3 seats off 6%, but this result is explained by the fact that of the 7 seats Labour won in February 2016, 5 were won on the last count. Of these 5, 4 were won by a victory margin of less than 2000 votes and 3 with a margin of less than 1000 votes.
As can be seen, Fine Gael gain 4 seats but lose 6 – 4 of those projected losses being in Leinster.
Fianna Fáil gain across all regions of the country – although their improvement is somewhat more muted in Leinster. Fine Gael show the largest drop in Leinster – where they are (on these figures) at risk of losing seats in Carlow-Kilkenny, Kildare North, Louth, Offaly, Wexford and Wicklow. By contrast, their vote remains virtually static in Connaught-Ulster. Sinn Fein see a very strong performance in Leinster.
Accounting for “luck” – by equalising the number of final seat wins and runner-up slots – the seat tallies would look like this :
OTHERS16%10
| PARTY | VOTE | SEATS |
| FIANNA FAIL | 33% | 59 |
| FINE GAEL | 25% | 47 |
| SINN FEIN | 20% | 36 |
| LABOUR | 6% | 5 |
| Others | 16% | 10 |
You can read the entire report here .Millward Brown February 2017 Poll