Analysis of the Polls Ending 18th-21st April in the UK Election

The overall average (and seat totals) for the parties in the first five polls conducted in the UK General Election were as follows :

CONSERVATIVES 48% 455 seats
LABOUR 25% 115 seats
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 11% 11 seats
UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY 7%
SCOTTISH NATIONALIST PARTY 4% 51 seats
PLAID CYMRU 1%

The Conservatives are up 10 points since 2015, and would gain 125 seats. They would gains particularly amongst older voters, working-class voters and those voters in Wales. By contrast, the vote amongst younger voters has remained static.

Labour have held onto their younger vote, but lose amongst middle-aged and particularly older voters. Their vote has fallen badly in Wales, and has fallen further in Scotland. The Tories are ahead of them in every region – only in London and the North do they come close.

The Liberal Democrats fare better amongst middle-class voters, and see a sizeable increase in London – but less elsewhere.

As many 2015 UKIP voters now say they are going to vote Conservative as say the will remain with UKIP. They do best amongst working-class voters.

You can read the report here : UK Apr 18 to Apr 21 NEW

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