The poll average as of 2nd January 2017 – and the likely number of seats gained by each party – is as follows :
| PARTY | VOTE | CHANGE | SEATS | CHANGE |
| FINE GAEL | 33% | +7% | 61 | +11 |
| FIANNA FAIL | 26% | +2% | 47 | +2 |
| SINN FEIN | 17% | +3% | 28 | +5 |
| LABOUR | 5% | -2% | 1 | -6 |
| LEFT | 3% | -2% | 6 | -4 |
| OTHERS | 16% | -8% | 11 | -13 |
NOTE : “Left” refers to combined votes and seats share for Solidarity-People Before Profit and Independents For Change.
Fine Gael see vote rises across the country, but particularly in Dublin. They are ahead in most provinces except in Munster, where Fianna Fáil are marginally ahead. Gains would be most likely in Dublin Bay North, Dublin Fingal, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin Rathdown, and Dublin South-West in Dublin, Kildare North and Longford-Westmeath in Leinster, Cork South-West, Kerry, Limerick City, Tipperary and Waterford in Munster, and Cavan-Monaghan, Galway East and Galway-Roscommon in Connaught-Ulster. By contrast they would lose a seat in Dun Laoghaire (where they currently hold 3 out of 4). They are easily the most popular party amongst middle-class voters, and are now just ahead of Sinn Fein amongst working-class voters. They are also the most popular party amongst middle-aged voters by some distance.
Fianna Fáil also see their vote rise across the country, with the exception of Leinster where it remains essentially static. Gains would be most likely in Dublin South-Central and Dun Laoghaire in Dublin, Clare, Tipperary and Galway West, offset by losses in Kildare North, Wicklow (which means returning to 1 seat – they currently hold 2 out of 5) and Cavan-Monaghan. They are the most popular party amongst working-class voters, and were consistently the most popular party amongst older (over 55) voters, but are now tied with Fine Gael.
Sinn Féin see a small vote rise which is fairly well spread across the country. Gains would be most likely in Dublin Bay South, Dublin West, Wexford, Tipperary and Galway West. They are now essentially tied with Fine Gael amongst younger voters, and have also been overtaken by Fine Gael amongst working-class voters.
Labour see a slight fall in their vote which could – given their precarious nature of many of their seats – reduce their Dáil presence even further.
The Left-wing parties would see a reduction in their vote and number of seats, but given the highly concentrated and personalised nature of their support, it is entirely possible that it is being under-estimated.
You can read the full report here….