The poll average as of 21st January 2017 – and the likely number of seats gained by each party – is as follows :

PARTY	VOTE	CHANGE	SEATS	CHANGE
FINE GAEL	33%	+7%	64	+14
FIANNA FAIL	26%	+2%	47	+2
SINN FEIN	17%	+3%	28	+5
LABOUR	6%	-1%	4	-3
LEFT	3%	-2%	5	-5
OTHERS	15%	-9%	10	-14

NOTE : “Left” refers to combined votes and seats share for Solidarity-People Before Profit and Independents For Change.

NOTE : This is based on the old constituencies.

Fine Gael see vote rises across the country, but particularly in Dublin. They are ahead in most provinces except in Munster, where they are matched by Fianna Fail. Gains would be most likely in Dublin Bay North, Dublin Fingal, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin Rathdown, and Dublin South-West in Dublin, Kildare North and Longford-Westmeath in Leinster, Cork South-West, Kerry, Limerick City, Tipperary (possibly two seats) and Waterford in Munster, and Cavan-Monaghan, Galway East, Sligo-Leitrim and Galway-Roscommon in Connaught-Ulster. By contrast they would lose a seat in Dun Laoghaire (where they currently hold 3 out of 4). They are easily the most popular party amongst middle-class voters and Farmers, and are now just ahead of Sinn Fein amongst working-class voters and are nowessentially tied with them amongst young voters. They are also the most popular party amongst middle-aged voters by some distance, and have recently moved ahead of Fianna Fáil amongst older voters.

Fianna Fáil see a slight rise in their vote across the country, but much of it seems to be based in Munster (where they are keeping pace with Fine Gael) – their vote is remaining static in Leinster and Connaught-Ulster. In Dublin, up until recently it did seem Fianna Fáil were poised for major gains but their vote has fallen precipitously over the last few months. Gains would be most likely in Dublin South-Central and Dun Laoghaire in Dublin, Cork North-Central, Clare, Tipperary and Galway West, offset by losses in Kildare North, Wicklow (which means returning to 1 seat – they currently hold 2 out of 5), Cavan-Monaghan and Sligo-Leitrim. They are the most popular party amongst working-class voters, and were consistently the most popular party amongst older (over 55) voters, but have now fallen behind Fine Gael. They are 15 points behind their old enemy amongst middle-class voters, and 20 points behind amongst farmers. Earlier in the year, they were tied with Sinn Fein amongst younger voters, but are now well behind both that party and Sinn Féin. They have also been overtaken by Fine Gael amongst older voters.

Sinn Féin see a small vote rise which is particularly noticeable in Dublin and Munster. They were polling impressively in Leinster up until a few months ago, but have bow fallen back. Gains would be most likely in Dublin West, Wicklow, Clare, Tipperary and Galway West. They are now essentially tied with Fine Gael amongst younger voters, and have also been overtaken by Fine Gael amongst working-class voters.

Labour see a slight fall in their vote which could – given their precarious nature of many of their seats – reduce their Dáil presence even further.

The Left-wing parties would see a reduction in their vote and number of seats, but given the highly concentrated and personalised nature of their support, it is entirely possible that it is being under-estimated.

You can read the full report here