The poll average as of 18th March 2018 – and the likely number of seats gained by each party – is as follows :

PARTY	VOTE	CHANGE	SEATS	CHANGE
FINE GAEL	33%	+7%	61	+11
FIANNA FAIL	27%	+3%	51	+2
SINN FEIN	18%	+4%	31	+8
LABOUR	6%	-1%	5	-2
Other Parties	6%	-6%	2	-8
Independents	10%	-8%	8	-15

NOTE : “Other Parties” refers to combined votes and seats share for Solidarity-People Before Profit, Green Party, Social Democrats and Renua.

NOTE : This is based on the old constituencies.

Fine Gael see vote rises across the country, but particularly in Dublin. They are ahead in the east, but are matched by Fianna Fáil in Munster and Connaught-Ulster. Gains would be most likely in Dublin Bay North, Dublin Fingal, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin Rathdown, and Dublin South-West in Dublin, Kildare North and Longford-Westmeath in Leinster, Cork South-West, Kerry, Limerick City, Tipperary and Waterford in Munster, and Cavan-Monaghan and Galway-Roscommon in Connaught-Ulster. By contrast they would lose a seat in Dun Laoghaire (where they currently hold 3 out of 4) and also possibly Clare. They are easily the most popular party amongst middle-class voters and Farmers, and are now just ahead of Sinn Fein amongst working-class voters and are now essentially tied with them amongst young voters. They are also the most popular party amongst middle-aged voters by some distance, and have recently moved ahead of Fianna Fáil amongst older voters.

Fianna Fáil see a slight rise in their vote across the country. Gains would be most likely in Dublin Central, Dublin Nth-West, Dublin Rathdown, Dublin South-Central and Dun Laoghaire in Dublin, Clare, Tipperary and Galway West, offset by losses in Kildare North and Cavan-Monaghan. They were the most popular party amongst working-class voters but are now essentially tied with Fine Gael, and were consistently the most popular party amongst older (over 55) voters, but have now fallen behind Fine Gael.

Sinn Féin see a small vote rise which is particularly noticeable in Munster. Gains would be most likely in Dublin Bay South, Dublin West, Wicklow, Clare, Cork North-Central, Tipperary and Galway West. They are now essentially tied with Fine Gael amongst younger voters, and have also been overtaken by Fine Gael amongst working-class voters.

Labour see a slight fall in their vote which could – given their precarious nature of many of their seats – reduce their Dáil presence even further.

The smaller parties would see a reduction in their vote by half and a fall in their number of seats, but given the highly concentrated and personalised nature of their support, it is entirely possible that it is being under-estimated.

You can read the full report here