I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
| PARTY | VOTE | +/- | SEATS | +/- |
| SINN FEIN | 32% | +7 | 59 | +22 |
| FINE GAEL | 26% | +5 | 46 | +11 |
| FIANNA FAIL | 16% | -6 | 23 | -15 |
| GREENS | 4% | -3 | 5 | -7 |
| LABOUR | 3% | -1 | 1 | -5 |
| Others | 8% | -1 | 10 | -3 |
| Inds | 10% | -2 | 16 | -3 |
METHODOLOGY : The Country total and regional figures for each party/group are calculated using a time-weighted average from the last five poll. The Country Total is adjusted to ensure it is in line with the regional figures (some polls don’t issue regional data). The proportion each party loses (if anything) per region is then calculated. For instance if a party was at 18% and is now at 12%, it loses a third of its vote – if its vote was 24% in a constituency it falls to 16%, if it was 15% to 10% etc. Next it is determined what votes the gaining parties will receive – for instance Fianna Fáil votes might be (proportionately) more likely to go to Fine Gael than Sinn Féin etc. A simulation of a count in each constituency is processed – this uses transfer data from the 2020 General Election, and in 16 constituencies uses transfer data particular to that constituency (if we are looking at transfers based on 2020 transfer rates). However, here we are using modified transfer data with greater transfer rates between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and reduced transfers from Sinn Féin and smaller parties to The Freens.
DUBLIN : The Count simulator forecasts that Fianna Fáil would lose a fifth of their vote in Dublin and four of their seven seats – three to Fine Gael (Dublin North-West, Dun Laoghaire and Dublin Bay South), and a fourth to either Sinn Féin or an Independent in Dublin South-West (It should be noted that this is predicated on their being a strong independent in the field). The other three seats were all won by slim margins in 2020. Fine Gael’s vote is forecast to rise by 8 points, leading to the three gains aforementioned as well as a gain from the Green Party. By contrast, Labour would lose both their seats in the capital to Sinn Féin. The Greens would lose a third of their vote in the Capital and three of their eight seats – so at present they are not facing the complete whitewash they experienced in Dublin in 2009 and 2011. Sinn Féin would increase their vote from 27% to 30%, and increase their seat take from 10 to 16 – the large rise in seat take is largely due to their systematic under-nomination of candidates in 2020. Oddly enough, they are forecast to take 46% in Dublin North-West but not take a second seat due to Fianna Fáil transfers putting Fine Gael ahead on the final counts – though good Sinn Féin vote management would likely reverse the positions. The Social Democrats would be forecast to lose their seat in Dublin Central to Sinn Féin.
| DUBLIN BAY NORTH | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 12% | 1 | 26% | 1 | 8% | 34% | 2 | 5% | 12% | 1 | 5% | |||
| DUBLIN BAY SOUTH | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 11% | 37% | 2 | 5% | 20% | 1 | 15% | 1 | 8% | 3% | ||||
| DUBLIN CENTRAL | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 8% | 22% | 1 | 4% | 39% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 14% | 5% | ||||
| DUBLIN FINGAL | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 18% | 1 | 24% | 1 | 5% | 29% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 8% | 8% | |||
| DUBLIN MID WEST | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 10% | 23% | 1 | 2% | 46% | 2 | 4% | 8% | 1 | 8% | ||||
| DUBLIN NORTH WEST | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 10% | 16% | 1 | 2% | 46% | 1 | 3% | 21% | 1 | 2% | ||||
| DUBLIN RATHDOWN | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 10% | 41% | 2 | 5% | 16% | 14% | 1 | 6% | 8% | |||||
| DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 9% | 18% | 1 | 3% | 42% | 2 | 6% | 19% | 1 | 2% | ||||
| DUBLIN SOUTH WEST | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 14% | 23% | 1 | 3% | 31% | 2 | 5% | 12% | 1 | 12% | 1 | |||
| DUBLIN WEST | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 13% | 1 | 31% | 1 | 3% | 31% | 2 | 7% | 13% | 1% | ||||
| DUN LAOGHAIRE | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 13% | 42% | 2 | 3% | 13% | 10% | 1 | 18% | 1 | 1% | ||||
LEINSTER : The Count simulator forecasts that Sinn Féin would win five extra seats in Leinster – in Carlow-Kilkenny (from the Greens), Laois-Offaly (from Fianna Fáil or Independents), Louth (from Labour), Wexford (from Independents) and Wicklow (from Fianna Fáil or the Greens). Taking three seats in Louth – even off the 49% forecast – could prove difficult given the particular geography at play with the majority of the population living in and around two very large towns at opposite ends of the constituency both of which already host Sinn Féin TDs. Also in practice Labour could prove hard to unseat given their strong base in Drogheda. On the other hand, geography could play to their hand in Wicklow where most unusually all five TDs are based in the urban north-east catchment area of Bray and Greystones – a Sinn Féin candidate in South or West Wicklow could likely capitalise). Fine Gael are forecast to win three extra seats – in Laois-Offaly, Longford-Westmeath (from Fianna Fáil in Longford) and in Wicklow. Fianna Fáil are forecast to lose three seats as detailed above, although the fact that the loss of a Laois Fianna Fáil seat would likely go to an Offaly candidate does mean that it might easier for Fianna Fáil to hold on. The Greens appear very vulnerable in both Wicklow and particularly Carlow-Kilkenny where they only took a seat due to Sinn Féin not running a second candidate in 2020.
| CARLOW-KILKENNY | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 27% | 2 | 29% | 1 | 2% | 29% | 2 | 3% | 6% | 3% | ||||
| KILDARE NORTH | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 19% | 1 | 24% | 1 | 4% | 22% | 1 | 5% | 26% | 1 | 0% | |||
| KILDARE SOUTH | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 14% | 1 | 23% | 1 | 10% | 30% | 1 | 2% | 7% | 14% | 1 | |||
| LAOIS-OFFALY | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 23% | 1 | 25% | 2 | 2% | 31% | 2 | 3% | 4% | 12% | ||||
| LOUTH | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 10% | 20% | 1 | 7% | 49% | 3 | 3% | 4% | 7% | 1 | ||||
| MEATH EAST | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 13% | 1 | 32% | 1 | 2% | 28% | 1 | 4% | 13% | 9% | ||||
| MEATH WEST | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 11% | 27% | 1 | 0% | 31% | 1 | 2% | 28% | 1 | 0% | ||||
| WEXFORD | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 19% | 1 | 23% | 1 | 10% | 1 | 32% | 2 | 1% | 7% | 8% | |||
| WICKLOW | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 10% | 30% | 2 | 2% | 30% | 2 | 4% | 15% | 1 | 9% | ||||
MUNSTER : Opinion Polls have been suggesting a substantial rise in Sinn Féin support in Munster and accordingly the Count Simulator awards them eight gains – Cork East (from Labour), Cork North-Central, Cork North-West, Kerry and Limerick County (from Fianna Fáil), Cork South-West (from the Social Democrats), Limerick City (from the Greens) and finally Waterford (from Fianna Fáil or the Greens). In Cork East, there is a strong base for Labour in Mallow, but they are vulnerable to a strong 2nd Sinn Féin candidate. Cork North-West was the only constituency in the state without a Sinn Féin candidate in 2020 (and the only one where Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael combined won every seat), but the fact that Aontu, the Social Democrats and the Greens combined polled over 10,000 votes between suggests that the desire for change didn’t completely bypass Cork North-West and that it will be hard for the main Government parties to maintain a complete hegemony on the constituency next time around. In Waterford, they would take nearly half the vote and so might be tempted to try and take 3 seats although precise vote management would be required. Fine Gael could expect gains in Cork South-West and Waterford (from Fianna Fail) and Tipperary (from Labour).
| CLARE | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 23% | 1 | 26% | 1 | 0% | 30% | 1 | 5% | 4% | 13% | 1 | |||
| CORK EAST | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 19% | 1 | 23% | 1 | 8% | 37% | 2 | 4% | 3% | 8% | ||||
| CORK NORTH-CENTRAL | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 17% | 17% | 1 | 3% | 38% | 2 | 3% | 15% | 1 | 8% | ||||
| CORK NORTH-CENTRAL | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 25% | 1 | 34% | 1 | 0% | 20% | 1 | 3% | 15% | 2% | ||||
| CORK SOUTH-CENTRAL | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 24% | 1 | 24% | 1 | 1% | 36% | 2 | 5% | 9% | 1% | ||||
| CORK SOUTH-WEST | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 15% | 19% | 1 | 3% | 24% | 1 | 2% | 14% | 22% | 1 | ||||
| KERRY | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 14% | 20% | 1 | 0% | 35% | 2 | 3% | 1% | 27% | 2 | ||||
| LIMERICK CITY | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 18% | 1 | 22% | 1 | 4% | 35% | 2 | 3% | 12% | 6% | ||||
| LIMERICK COUNTY | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 21% | 35% | 1 | 0% | 26% | 1 | 0% | 6% | 12% | 1 | ||||
| TIPPERARY | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 12% | 1 | 15% | 1 | 6% | 27% | 1 | 2% | 10% | 1 | 28% | 1 | ||
| WATERFORD | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 12% | 18% | 1 | 4% | 47% | 2 | 4% | 8% | 8% | 1 | ||||
CONNAUGHT-ULSTER : In contrast to the other regions, changes in Connaught and Ulster would be comparatively modest with Sinn Féin winning seats in Donegal (from Independents) and Galway East (from Fianna Fáil), while Fine Gael would win back a seat from Independents in Galway-Roscommon
| CAVAN-MONAGHAN | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 21% | 2 | 28% | 1 | 1% | 41% | 2 | 1% | 6% | 0% | ||||
| DONEGAL | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 17% | 1 | 15% | 1 | 0% | 49% | 3 | 1% | 3% | 15% | ||||
| GALWAY EAST | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 21% | 31% | 1 | 2% | 22% | 1 | 2% | 4% | 19% | 1 | ||||
| GALWAY-ROSCOMMON | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 14% | 13% | 1 | 3% | 21% | 1 | 1% | 2% | 47% | 1 | ||||
| GALWAY WEST | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 19% | 1 | 21% | 1 | 3% | 16% | 1 | 3% | 10% | 29% | 2 | |||
| MAYO | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 20% | 1 | 42% | 2 | 0% | 29% | 1 | 3% | 5% | 2% | ||||
| SLIGO-LEITRIM | |||||||||||||
| FF | FG | LAB | SF | GP | OTH | INDS | |||||||
| 20% | 1 | 17% | 1 | 2% | 28% | 1 | 1% | 3% | 28% | 1 | |||
CLASS : Fine Gael has consistently led amongst Middle-Class voters since the election rising to over 40% around Christmas – they since have fallen around 10 points but asre still well ahead of Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil (who have staged something of a recovery since the start of the year).
By contrast, Sinn Féin have maintained a consistent lead amongst working-class voters since the election and now lead Fine Gael nearly 2-to-1 amongst this voter cohort. Fianna Fáil have generally been polling in the mid-teens.
Overall, both Fine Gael and Labour show marked class-based support biases – the same true is true of The Greens at a lower level of support. Fianna Fáil has a more balanced support base.
AGE : Sinn Féin have consistently lead amongst voters aged 18-34 since the General Election, although Fine Gael were a close second in late 2020. Now however Sinn Féin are polling over 40% amongst this cohort and are leading Fine Gael by 2-to-1. The Greens also remain relatively strong amongst this cohort.
Amongst Middle-aged voters Sinn Féin and Fine Gael have been in close contest, with Sinn Féin currently just ahead.
Fianna Fáil fare better amongst older voters – those 55 and over – than amongst those in lower age cohorts and are currently tied for second place with Sinn Féin.
BIGGEST PARTIES :
