All posts by djmoore

Assembly 2022 – The South Antrim Vote

Thankfully – I’ve managed to come into possession of Tallies for the South Antrim constituency in this year’s assembly election.  Given that tallies of any kind are as rare as the proverbial hen’s teeth this is quite a catch.

A few notes – these strictly aren’t tallies; they are samples. Only about one-fifth of the votes in each box were sampled. So accordingly there is a margin of error involved, which is why I’m rounding most percentages to the nearest five.

2022 Antrim Outline

Also, as you can see the Ward boundaries around Lough Neagh extend into the lake. Whether fish vote – and which side of the cultural and political divide they cleave to – is uncertain, but that is the way they are defined.

Anyway for the moment I’m simply going to do a quick Anatomy of the Vote – I will be adding further sections later.

Continue reading Assembly 2022 – The South Antrim Vote

Preliminary Census Returns – Laois and Offaly

The following workings are based on the preliminary results from the 2022 census.

I was originally going to work solely on the basis of a 171 seat Dail – but based on Adrian Kavanagh’s post regarding what a Boundary Commission might be likely to do, I’m instead going to concentrate on a 176 seat Dáil.

SCENARIO A – A 176 SEAT DAIL

The Counties of Laois and Offaly combined have a population of 174,325 souls which – under Scenario A – would entitle them jointly to 6 seats (5.99 seats based on Population divided by ratio of number of people per Dail Seat).

However, while Laois (entitled to just under 3.15 seats, therefore just within the maximum allowed deviation) could be a standalone constituency, Offaly (entitled to 2.84 seats) is just outside the maximum permitted variance. This can be easily remedied by a transfer of population from Laois to Offaly.

The most obvious Electoral Division is Portarlington South which contains the roughly two-thirds of Portarlington town which lies south of the Laois-Offaly border (Whatever bright spark in bygone days decided to situate Portarlington straddling the border of two counties clearly did not have the interests of future political cartographers and boundary commissioners foremost in their minds).

Continue reading Preliminary Census Returns – Laois and Offaly

Preliminary Census Returns – What they may mean for constituency boundaries in Kildare

The following workings are based on the preliminary results from the 2022 census.

I was originally going to work solely  on the basis of a 171 seat Dail – but based on Adrian Kavanagh’s post regarding what a Boundary Commission might be likely to do, I’m also going to include an analysis based on a 176 seat Dáil.

SCENARIO A – A 171 SEAT DAIL

Under Scenario A, County Kildare would be entitled to 8.24 seats – which is within the 5% deviation (7.6-8.4 seats) allowed from the National Average – provided of course both constituencies stay within that national average

Option 1 – Two Four Seaters

The easiest way to ensure that Kildare supports two four-seaters is to transfer seven District Electoral Divisions in the North-West of the constituency (with a population of 9,806 souls) into Kildare South.

This would be a predominantly rural area on the northern border of the Kildare portion of the Bog of Allen. The only town is Prosperous in the south-east of the area – it also contains the village of Johnstownbridge in the north-west.

Kildare North 2022

Continue reading Preliminary Census Returns – What they may mean for constituency boundaries in Kildare

The Poll Average on the 1st June 2022

I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….

PARTY
VOTE
+/-
SEATS
+/-
SINN FEIN
36%
+11
66
+29
FINE GAEL
20%
-1 
38
+3
FIANNA FAIL
19%
-3
31
-7
GREENS
4%
-3
4
-8
LABOUR
4%
 
3
-3
Others
8%
 
8
-5
Inds
10%
-3
8
-11

 

CONTENTS

Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points

Continue reading The Poll Average on the 1st June 2022

Neasa Hourigan : The Green who saw Red

Neasa Hourigan has – at least temporarily – departed the Green Party fold and now represents Dublin Central as an Independent. This means the total number of years that Dublin Central has hosted a Green TD is just over two – it remains to be seen whether Hourigan will come back under the party whip to augment that total.

Dublin Central wouldn’t hitherto have been considered natural territory for the Greens as it historically has a strongly working-class population in the Inner City and in Cabra, but in the last two decades there has been an increasing younger middle-class presence.

2016 DC Middle-Class

Continue reading Neasa Hourigan : The Green who saw Red

The Curious Case of The TUV In The Count-Time

THE CURIOUS CASE OF THE TUV IN THE COUNT-TIME

It’s an open question as to whether God is man or a woman, but Jim Allister can be in little doubt that he or she is manifestly not a fan of Traditional Unionist Voice. The TUV took 7.5% of the assembly vote but only 1.1% of the assembly votes – quite possibly the most disproportional results a Proportional Representation system has delivered.

TABLE 1 : VOTES PER MLA

PARTY VOTES MLAs Votes per MLA
SF 250,388 27 9,273
DUP 184,002 25 7,360
Alliance 116,681 17 6,863
UUP 96,390 9 10,710
SDLP 78,237 9 9,780
TUV 65,788 1 65,788
PBP 9,796 1 9,796

Continue reading The Curious Case of The TUV In The Count-Time

Tallyriffic Northern Assembly Prediction

Following countless hours of looking through polls, polls and more polls, Tallyriffic is going to make the following prediction….

PARTY
%
+/-
SEATS
+/-
SINN FEIN
26%
2
26
-1
DEMOCRATIC UNIONISTS
19%
-9
21
-7
ALLIANCE
16%
+7
13
+5
ULSTER UNIONISTS
13%
11
+1
S.D.L.P.
10%
-2
9
-3
Other Unionists
8%
+3
6
+4
Others
8%
+2
4
+1

This would equate to an advance for the middle-ground (in the form of Alliance) although given their poll ratings they might hope for a few more seats over the 13. Sinn Féin would cede 2 seats, but emerge as the largest party (with all that entails) while the Social Democratic and Labour party would cede 3 seats, partially due to losing votes and partially due to being overtaken by Alliance who tend to transfer well to the SDLP. The Democratic Unionist Party would lose nearly a third of their vote and a quarter of their seats, with the main beneficiaries being Traditional Unionist Voice who seem poised to make a breakthrough. The Ulster Unionist Party remain grounded on 13% although they are forecast to make a seat gain.

Below I’m going to look at each of the counties (and Belfast) in turn….

Continue reading Tallyriffic Northern Assembly Prediction

Dublin Bay North – What a (possible) Carve-Up!

Recently the Phoenix published an article about the possible ramifications of the census – in particular population growth – on the redrawing of boundaries when figures become available. This is particularly pertinent because of the current constitutional requirement that there be that ratio of TDs to population be no more than 1:30,000 – which limit we were only just under in 2016. The population growth since then probably means that up to 10 extras seats will be required.

I’m going to take – roughly – the possible redrawing of boundaries proscribed by the Phoenix article, and look at the possible outcomes in the two putative constituencies – which I’m calling Dublin North Central and Dublin Fingal South – that would arise from the ashes of Dublin Bay North.

Continue reading Dublin Bay North – What a (possible) Carve-Up!