I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
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Dublin Bay South – An Analysis
The following is an analysis of the current bye-election in Dublin Bay South – looking at hard data such as transfer rates, historical voting trends and socio-economic voting patterns. Also I have a look at the interesting poll done by the Irish Times and MRBI.
The Poll Average on 30th June 2021
I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
| PARTY | VOTE | +/- | SEATS | +/- |
| SINN FEIN | 32% | +7 | 59 | +22 |
| FINE GAEL | 26% | +5 | 46 | +11 |
| FIANNA FAIL | 16% | -6 | 23 | -15 |
| GREENS | 4% | -3 | 5 | -7 |
| LABOUR | 3% | -1 | 1 | -5 |
| Others | 8% | -1 | 10 | -3 |
| Inds | 10% | -2 | 16 | -3 |
Analysis of the February 2017 Behaviours and Attitude Poll
The Tallyriffic Predictor’s analysis of the RED C poll on a constituency-by-constituency basis returns the following results :
| PARTY | VOTE | SEATS |
| FIANNA FAIL | 32% | 62 |
| FINE GAEL | 21% | 37 |
| LABOUR | 6% | 3 |
| SINN FEIN | 19% | 33 |
| OTHERS | 22% | 22 |
It might seem odd that Labour only win 3 seats off 6%, but this result is explained by the fact that of the 7 seats Labour won in February 2016, 5 were won on the last count. Of these 5, 4 were won by a victory margin of less than 2000 votes and 3 with a margin of less than 1000 votes.
Accounting for “luck” – by equalising the number of final seat wins and runner-up slots – the seat tallies would look like this.
| PARTY | VOTE | SEATS |
| FIANNA FAIL | 32% | 57 |
| FINE GAEL | 21% | 37 |
| LABOUR | 6% | 2 |
| SINN FEIN | 19% | 33 |
| OTHERS | 22% | 25 |
Fianna Fáil gain across all regions of the country – although their improvement is somewhat more muted in Leinster. Fine Gael show the largest drop in Leinster – where they are (on these figures) at risk of losing seats in Carlow-Kilkenny, Kildare North, Louth, Offaly, Wexford and Wicklow. By contrast, their vote remains virtually static in Connaught-Ulster. Sinn Fein see a very strong performance in Leinster.
You can read the entire report here :Analysis B&A ST February 2017
MACLOCHLAINN OUT OF LUCK – OR VOTES? (pt 1)
Looking at the Donegal maps, they only serve to emphasise that Thomas Pringle owes his seat in great part to a strategic blunder by Sinn Fein – namely not realising the weakness of Padraig MacLochlainn.
The total Sinn Fein vote was actually up slightly from 2011 in the old Donegal Nth-East – from 25% to 26%. The problem was that a lot of it – 43% of it – didn’t go to MacLochlainn.
Continue reading MACLOCHLAINN OUT OF LUCK – OR VOTES? (pt 1)
The Marriage Referendum vote in Waterford City
Here’s Waterford City close-up….
By contrast with Dublin, the Yes vote in Waterford City centre was quite low, with a No vote of 51% being recorded in Newport’s Square. Continue reading The Marriage Referendum vote in Waterford City
The Dublin Marriage Vote Up Close….
Here’s Dublin close-up…
The votes appear to be highest in the City Centre and then gradually drops off until rising again at the edge of the city. Continue reading The Dublin Marriage Vote Up Close….
A YEAR OF HAPPY MARRIAGE….
Just over a year since the Marriage Referendum… here is a map of the tallies I put in so far….
Green is average (58-66%)
The Blues are below average, with the light blue a NO vote (less than 50% yes)
The Reds are above average…. Continue reading A YEAR OF HAPPY MARRIAGE….
MORE SCENES FROM THE CLASS STRUGGLE IN DUBLIN SOUTH-WEST
The Graph below takes the same data (how the votes fell in areas with different percentages of Middle-class Households ), but organises the votes into Blocs…
LEFT – Sinn Fein and AAA-PBP…
CENTRE – Fianna Fail, Labour and the Greens
RIGHT – Fine Gael and Renua. Continue reading MORE SCENES FROM THE CLASS STRUGGLE IN DUBLIN SOUTH-WEST
The Poll-toppers in Dublin South-West
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael share Rathfarnham, while the AAA-PBP overpower Sinn Fein in Tallaght….
