ANALYSIS OF POLLS ENDING APRIL 22ND TO 27TH IN THE UK GENERAL ELECTION

The overall average (and seat totals) for the parties in the polls ending between April 22nd and 27th in the UK General Election were as follows :

CONSERVATIVES 45% 402 seats
LABOUR 29% 162 seats
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 10% 12 seats
UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY 8%
SCOTTISH NATIONALIST PARTY 4% 54 seats
PLAID CYMRU 1% 1 seat
GREENS 3% 1 seat

test
The Conservatives are up 7 points since 2015 (but down 3% since the first poll analysis), and would gain 84 seats. They would gains particularly amongst older voters, working-class voters and those voters in Wales. By contrast, the vote amongst younger voters has remained static.

Labour have held onto their younger vote – in fact they increase it, but lose amongst older voters. The Tories are ahead of them in every region bar the North.

The Liberal Democrats fare better amongst middle-class voters, and see a sizeable increase in London – but less elsewhere. 5 out of every 6 Liberal Democrats are Remain voters.

As many 2015 UKIP voters now say they are going to vote Conservative as say the will remain with UKIP. They do best amongst working-class voters. 5 out of every 6 UKIPers are Leave voters.

The SNP hold fairly firm – they lose 1 seat in Glasgow to the Liberal Democrats, and 2 in Southern Scotland to the Tories. They however gain 1 from Labour.

You can read the report here : UK Apr 22 to Apr 27

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *