What The Electoral Commission might do – East Munster (excluding Cork)

In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.

Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.

However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.

Continue reading What The Electoral Commission might do – East Munster (excluding Cork)

What The Electoral Commission might do – North Dublin

In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.

Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.

However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.

Continue reading What The Electoral Commission might do – North Dublin

What the Electoral Commission might do – North Leinster

In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.

Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.

However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.

Continue reading What the Electoral Commission might do – North Leinster

The Poll Average on 1st March 2023

I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….

PARTY
VOTE
+/-
SEATS
+/-
SINN FEIN
32%
+8
58
+21
FINE GAEL
22%
 +1
37
+2 
FIANNA FAIL
19%
-3
30
-8
GREENS
4%
-3
5
-7
LABOUR
4%
 
2
-4
Others
8%
8
-5
Inds
10%
-3
20
+1

CONTENTS

Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points

Continue reading The Poll Average on 1st March 2023

What the Electoral Commission might do : South-West Leinster

In this post, I will be gradually working through the possible permutations of constituencies that the recently formed Electoral Commission might consider.

Unfortunately I’m slightly shooting blind, as the Terms of Reference merely state that “the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2° of the Constitution, shall be not less than 171 and not more than 181”. Apparently, the precise number of members the Dáil will not be set until after the Central Statistics Office releases the final population figures (sometime in the summer months) and will not be revealed until the Constituency Review report is released probably in the Autumn.

However, there seems to be a general concensus amongst people wiser than myself that the final number is likely to be somewhere between 176 and 181 in order to “future-proof” whatever scheme of constituencies is arrived at.

Continue reading What the Electoral Commission might do : South-West Leinster

The Independent-minded Carol Nolan….

Carol Nolan was first elected to the Birr Electoral Area of Offaly County Council in 2014, taking just over 10% of the vote and being elected on the 5th count (with Fine Gael transfers). She also took a quarter of John Leahy’s first count surplus – Leahy outpolled her by more than 2 to 1 in this contest, but she was to best him in both the 2016 and 2020 General Elections.

The 2016 General Election
The 2020 General Election
Changes between 2016 and 2020
Conclusion

Continue reading The Independent-minded Carol Nolan….

The Poll Average on 1st February 2023

I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….

PARTY
VOTE
+/-
SEATS
+/-
SINN FEIN
32%
+8
61
+24
FINE GAEL
21%
 
35
 
FIANNA FAIL
19%
-3
33
-5
GREENS
4%
-3
2
-10
LABOUR
4%
 
4
-2
Others
9%
+1 
9
-4
Inds
11%
-2
16
-3

CONTENTS

Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points

Continue reading The Poll Average on 1st February 2023

Preliminary Census Returns – Wexford

Wexford Population

The preliminary census returns for Wexford indicate a population of 163,527 souls. If the national totals of Dail seats were to increase to 171 (the minimum required according to the overall population figures) Wexford as a 5 seat constituency would deviate by over 9% from the national average ratio of population, meaning that it would require a transfer of over ten thousand population into another constituency.

TABLE 1 – WEXFORD POPULATION RATIO

Dail Size Number of seats Deviation
171 5.46 +9.2%
176 5,62 -6.3%
181 5.78 -3.7%

However, if the Boundary Commission were to suggest say 176 seats it would be more likely that population would be transferred into Wexford to create two three-seaters. It the Commission were to insist upon 181 seats nationally the level of deviation from the national average for six seats would be under 4%  which would mean that  Boundary changes would not be necessary

Continue reading Preliminary Census Returns – Wexford

Preliminary Census Returns – Wicklow

Wicklow Population

The preliminary census returns for Wicklow indicate a population of 155,485 souls. If the national totals of Dail seats were to increase to 171 (the minimum required according to the overall population figures) Wicklow as a 5 seat constituency would deviate by just under 4% from the national average ratio of population : seat.

TABLE 1 – WICKLOW POPULATION RATIO

Dail Size Number of seats Deviation
171 5.19 +3.8%
176 5.34 +6.8%
181 5.49 +9.8%

However, if the Boundary Commission were to suggest say 176 seats or 181 seats nationally the level of deviation from the national would be in the order of 7% and 10% respectively, which would require Boundary changes to be made involving at least one other county.

Continue reading Preliminary Census Returns – Wicklow