I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
Following countless hours of looking through polls, polls and more polls, Tallyriffic is going to make the following prediction….
PARTY |
% |
+/- |
SEATS |
+/- |
SINN FEIN |
26% |
–2 |
26 |
-1 |
DEMOCRATIC UNIONISTS |
19% |
-9 |
21 |
-7 |
ALLIANCE |
16% |
+7 |
13 |
+5 |
ULSTER UNIONISTS |
13% |
— |
11 |
+1 |
S.D.L.P. |
10% |
-2 |
9 |
-3 |
Other Unionists |
8% |
+3 |
6 |
+4 |
Others |
8% |
+2 |
4 |
+1 |
This would equate to an advance for the middle-ground (in the form of Alliance) although given their poll ratings they might hope for a few more seats over the 13. Sinn Féin would cede 2 seats, but emerge as the largest party (with all that entails) while the Social Democratic and Labour party would cede 3 seats, partially due to losing votes and partially due to being overtaken by Alliance who tend to transfer well to the SDLP. The Democratic Unionist Party would lose nearly a third of their vote and a quarter of their seats, with the main beneficiaries being Traditional Unionist Voice who seem poised to make a breakthrough. The Ulster Unionist Party remain grounded on 13% although they are forecast to make a seat gain.
Below I’m going to look at each of the counties (and Belfast) in turn….
Recently the Phoenix published an article about the possible ramifications of the census – in particular population growth – on the redrawing of boundaries when figures become available. This is particularly pertinent because of the current constitutional requirement that there be that ratio of TDs to population be no more than 1:30,000 – which limit we were only just under in 2016. The population growth since then probably means that up to 10 extras seats will be required.
I’m going to take – roughly – the possible redrawing of boundaries proscribed by the Phoenix article, and look at the possible outcomes in the two putative constituencies – which I’m calling Dublin North Central and Dublin Fingal South – that would arise from the ashes of Dublin Bay North.
Continue reading Dublin Bay North – What a (possible) Carve-Up!
I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
The following is an analysis of the current bye-election in Dublin Bay South – looking at hard data such as transfer rates, historical voting trends and socio-economic voting patterns. Also I have a look at the interesting poll done by the Irish Times and MRBI.
I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….
PARTY | VOTE | +/- | SEATS | +/- |
SINN FEIN | 32% | +7 | 59 | +22 |
FINE GAEL | 26% | +5 | 46 | +11 |
FIANNA FAIL | 16% | -6 | 23 | -15 |
GREENS | 4% | -3 | 5 | -7 |
LABOUR | 3% | -1 | 1 | -5 |
Others | 8% | -1 | 10 | -3 |
Inds | 10% | -2 | 16 | -3 |
The current Poll Average in the US Presidential Election shows Biden nearly 8% ahead of Trump – this is an increase of 1% over a week. An election held on these figures would suggest that Biden would take 352 votes and Trump 186 – this represents North Carolina’s 15 Electoral College votes moving into Biden’s camp.
The following states and districts which Trump won last time would flip to Biden : Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Arizona and Nebraska 2nd.
A big caveat is that Trump remains competitive in most of the states listed above (ie he’s less than 5% behind Biden) so theoretically he could win the Electoral Vote despite losing the Popular Vote by 2 or 3%.
STATE | ECVs | 2016 VOTE | 1st September | SWING |
OVERALL | — | CLINTON +2% | BIDEN +7.5% | BIDEN +3% |
Iowa | 6 | TRUMP +9½% | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +4% |
Texas | 38 | TRUMP +9% | TRUMP +½% | BIDEN +4½% |
Ohio | 18 | TRUMP +8% | BIDEN -1½% | BIDEN +5% |
Georgia | 16 | TRUMP +5% | TRUMP +2½% | BIDEN +1½% |
North Carolina | 15 | TRUMP +3½% | BIDEN +2½% | BIDEN +3% |
Arizona | 11 | TRUMP +3½% | BIDEN +6% | BIDEN +4½% |
Florida | 29 | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +3½% | BIDEN +2½% |
Wisconsin | 10 | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +4½% | BIDEN +2½% |
Pennsylvania | 20 | TRUMP +½% | BIDEN +4% | BIDEN +2.5% |
Michigan | 16 | TRUMP +<½% | BIDEN +3½% | BIDEN +2% |
New Hampshire | 4 | CLINTON +½% | BIDEN +6% | BIDEN +3% |
Minnesota | 10 | CLINTON +1½% | BIDEN +4½% | BIDEN +1½% |
Maine | 10 | CLINTON +3½% | BIDEN +12% | BIDEN +4½% |
The current Poll Average in the US Presidential Election shows Biden nearly 7% ahead of Trump. An election held on these figures would suggest that Biden would take 337 votes and Trump 201.
The following states and districts which Trump won last time would flip to Biden : Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Arizona and Nebraska 2nd.
A big caveat is that Trump remains competitive in all of the states listed above (ie he’s less than 5% behind Biden) so theoretically he could win the Electoral Vote despiting losing the Popular Vote by 2 or 3%.
STATE | ECVs | 2016 VOTE | 25th August | SWING |
OVERALL | — | CLINTON +2% | BIDEN +7% | BIDEN +2½% |
Iowa | 6 | TRUMP +9½% | TRUMP +2% | BIDEN +3½% |
Texas | 38 | TRUMP +9% | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +4% |
Ohio | 18 | TRUMP +8% | BIDEN +½% | BIDEN +4½% |
Georgia | 16 | TRUMP +5% | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +2% |
North Carolina | 15 | TRUMP +3½% | TRUMP +1½% | BIDEN +1% |
Arizona | 11 | TRUMP +3½% | BIDEN +½% | BIDEN +2% |
Nebraska #2 | 1 | TRUMP +2% | BIDEN +2½% | BIDEN +2½% |
Florida | 29 | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +2% | BIDEN +1½% |
Wisconsin | 10 | TRUMP +1% | BIDEN +2½% | BIDEN +1½% |
Pennsylvania | 20 | TRUMP +½% | BIDEN +3% | BIDEN +2% |
Michigan | 16 | TRUMP +<½% | BIDEN +2½% | BIDEN +1½% |
New Hampshire | 4 | CLINTON +½% | BIDEN +5% | BIDEN +2½% |
Minnesota | 10 | CLINTON +1½% | BIDEN +3½% | BIDEN +1% |
Nevada | 10 | CLINTON +1½% | BIDEN +6% | BIDEN +2½% |
Maine | 10 | CLINTON +3½% | BIDEN +11% | BIDEN +4% |
Maine | 10 | CLINTON +5% | BIDEN +9½% | BIDEN +2½% |