This Poll Average was calculated by doing a time-rated average of the last five Irish Opinion Polls (with adjustments for each polling compant based on their historical deviation from the overall average of polls). Regional sub-data for Dublin and the provinces is also used to account for Regional Swings.

The main points of this Poll Average are :

• The Government Parties (Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Greens) would take 85 seats – 43 for Fine Gael, 41 for Fianna Fáil and 1 for the Greens.
• The Opposition Parties (Sinn Féin, Labour, Social Democrats, Solidarity-People Before Profit, Aontu) would take 50 seats – 35 for Sinn Féin, 2 for Labour and 13 for the other three parties.

Bear in mind that there 14 extra seats in the new Dáil.

Continue reading The Poll Average on 1st November 2024 →

All Candidate Lists are on Adrian Kavanagh’s excellent blog at : Candidates for the 2024 General Election by Dáil constituency | Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses

Constituencies currently available are listed below…..

FULL GUIDES

CARLOW-KILKENNY	CAVAN-MONAGHAN	CLARE	CORK EAST	CORK NORTH-CENTRAL	DONEGAL
DUBLIN BAY NORTH	DUBLIN CENTRAL	DUBLIN SOUTH-WEST	DUBLIN BAY SOUTH	DUBLIN SOUTH-CENTRAL	GALWAY EAST
TIPPERARY SOUTH	MAYO	MEATH EAST	OFFALY	WATERFORD	WEXFORD-WICKLOW
WICKLOW	TIPPERARY NORTH	CORK NORTH-WEST	CORK SOUTH-WEST

SNIPPETS

Unfortunately between data corruptions, coding errors and atrocious time management – never saw a rabbithole I didn’t like – I’ve had to skit the remaining constituencies….

CORK SOUTH-CENTRAL	DUBLIN MID-WEST	DUBLIN NORTH-WEST	DUBLIN RATHDOWN	DUBLIN WEST	GALWAY WEST
KERRY	KILDARE NORTH	KILDARE SOUTH	DUN LAOGHAIRE	FINGAL EAST/WEST	LAOIS
LIMERICK CITY	LIMERICK COUNTY	LOUTH

CARLOW-KILKENNY

Carlow-Kilkenny is a five seat constituency. It has existed since the creation of the state except for 12 years between 1937 and 1948. There is a strong Labour tradition here, and Seamus Pattison held a seat for over a quarter of a century. More recently it has become one of Fianna Fáil’s strongest constituencies with the party taking three of the four contested seats in 2002, and being within shooting distance of three out of five in both 2016 and 2020.

The main candidates are : John McGuinness TD (Fianna Fáil), , Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor TD (Fianna Fáil), Malcolm Noonan TD (Green Party). Kilkenny-based City Councillor David FitzGerald (Fine Gael) who was runner-up in the 2015 bye-election, and also contested the 2016 General Election; South Kilkenny-based Councillor Michael Doyle (Fine Gael); South Kilkenny-based Councillor P.J.Cleere (Fianna Fáil), who topped the poll in the Callan-Thomastown Electoral Area (the strongest Fianna Fáil Electoral Area in the country in that election) and Councillor Sean O’hAirgain (Labour), Natasha Newsome Drennan (Sinn Féin), Aine Gladney Knox (Sinn Féin) and Catherine Callaghan (Fine Gael).

In the 2023 Constituency Boundary review, part of rural north-west Kilkenny is to become part of the newly resurrected Tipperary North. Roughly three thousand votes were cast in this area in 2020, nearly a thousand of them for John McGuinness.

Of the five current TDs, Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor is the only one based in Carlow, while both Kathleen Funchion and John-Paul Phelan have both signalled their intention to stand down.

At the last election, one TD was elected in Carlow (Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor – Fianna Fáil), one in Kilkenny City/North Kilkenny (John McGuinness – Fianna Fáil) and one in South Kilkenny (John Paul Phelan – Fine Gael). The remaining two had more distributed vote bases – Kathleen Funchion (Sinn Féin) took votes all over the constituency – she took over half the vote in Ferrybank (the part of Waterford inside the Kilkenny border) and nearly 40% in Tullow in East Carlow, while Malcolm Noonan of the Green Party – besides a good personal vote in Kilkenny City – polled a steady vote across the constituency.  It should be noted that Bobby Aylward (R.I.P.) of Fianna Fáil was a close runner-up – his vote was South Kilkenny based.

A few considerations :

Firstly – It is unlikely there will be two Carlow TDs elected. Pat Deering of Fine Gael didn’t even make it to the final count in 2020. The last time two TDs were elected from Carlow was in 2007 when both M.J.Nolan (Fianna Fáil) and Mary White (Greens) were elected – however, that time roughly half of White’s vote came from Kilkenny. This time Catherine Callaghan is running for Fine Gael from the Tullow side of the county –  the fact that she failed (albeit narrowly) to be elected to the County Council in the summer limits her chances.  

Secondly – The Green seat is precarious. Malcolm Noonan only took the final seat by several hundred votes ahead of the late Bobby Aylward TD – and he only got over the line due to a Solidarity-People Before Profit transfer (just under half of which were Sinn Féin number ones). If Sinn Féin had run a second candidate, it is unlikely he would have made it to the last count. Unusually for the Green Party, he does have a decent personal vote – he was one of three councillors to survive their electoral rout in 2009 – but that may not be sufficient to save his seat this time given the strong headwind against the party.

Thirdly – How far will the Sinn Féin vote drop? At the moment, the Sinn Féin in Leinster vote is several points down on their vote in 2020. On this basis, the Sinn Féin seat is probably safe although a second seat is unlikely. However, it should be noted that neither of their candidates managed to get elected in the Local Elections – in Aine Gladney Knox’s case there is a plausible excuse in that she ran in the same Electoral Area as her father who did take a Council seat for Sinn Féin, but Natasha Drennan failed to take a seat in Piltown which contains the northern Waterford City suburbs in Ferrybank which voted strongly (50%+) for the party in 2020

Fourthly – South Kilkenny. In 2020, Bobby Aylward (R.I.P.) was 558 votes behind Malcolm Noonan on the final count. John Paul Phelan is stepping down this time for health reasons. This time Peter Cleere (Fianna Fáil) and Michael Doyle (Fine Gael) are replacing Bobby and John-Paul Phelan respectively. One of them will certainly take a seat and quite possibly both.

Overall, there is two definite seats for Fianna Fáil and one for Fine Gael. Fine Gael’s best chance of taking a second seat are with their Carlow candidate, but she is hampered by missing election (very narrowly) to the County Council, and a sub-optimal geographical location. The Green seat was won last time only because Sinn Féin failed to run a second seat and it is hard to see a path to retaining a seat. If I was to take a punt I’d guess that the certainties are two for Fianna Fáil, one for Fine Gael, a likely seat for Sinn Féin, and the last seat likely contested between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

CAVAN-MONAGHAN

Main Candidates : Matt Carthy TD (SF), Pauline Tully TD (SF), Niamh Smyth TD (FF), Brendan Smith TD (FF), Robbie Gallagher SEN (FF), David Maxwell CLLR (FG), Cathy Bennett CLLR (SF), Sarah O’Reilly CLLR (Aon), Shane P O Reilly CLLR (II)

Cavan-Monaghan has existed since 1977, merging the previous Cavan and Monaghan constituencies which had existed since the creation of the state. There are sizeable Protestant populations in both counties, and both county constituencies elected Protestant Independent TDs to the Dail and both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael had Protestant TDs representing the counties over the years.   

In both 2016 and 2020, Fine Gael out-polled Fianna Fáil but only took one seat to Fianna Fáil’s two. Much of the reason was the domination of the Fine Gael vote by HEATHER HUMPHREYS – not just in Monaghan but into Cavan too.

The table below shows the tally for the five TDs (and runner-up T.P.O’Reilly of Fine Gael) in Cavan and Monaghan.

COUNTY	Carthy	Humphreys	Tully	Smith	Smyth	O’Reilly
Cavan	3,194 (9%)	3,567 (10%)	8,211 (23%)	6,597 (18%)	4,115 (11%)	4,420 (12%)
Monaghan	12,814 (39%)	8,667 (28%)	1,230 (4%)	318 (1%)	1,230 (4%)	221 (1%)

Humphreys took nearly one-third of her vote from Cavan leading to her outpolling her closest running-mate T.P.O’Reilly by well over two to 1. In fact she was less than a thousand votes behind O’Reilly in Cavan. The reasons Humphreys took so many personal votes in Cavan are two-fold – firstly, she secured a big personal vote in and around Cootehill  where she worked for many years and secondly, she polled very well in rural areas with significant Protestant Populations.

MATT CARTHY dominated the north and south of Monaghan – in the 2000s, Sinn Féin were dominant in North Monaghan, Fine Gael in Central Monaghan and Fianna Fáil in South Monaghan. However over the last twenty years, the Sinn Féin has grown steeply in South Monaghan. This time Councillor CATHY BENNETT from the party’s northern Monaghan heartland is joining Carthy on the ticket.

BRENDAN SMITH’s vote is highest in rural west Cavan and also strong in Cavan town and surrounding areas. NIAMH SMYTH’s vote is mainly east Cavan-based (centered on Bailieborough), but she did take one-fifth of her vote over the border is South Monaghan. In 2020, She fought off a strong challenge from her former Personal Assistant (and local Fianna Fáil councillor) Sarah O’Reilly who defected to Aontu and took just under four thousand votes. This time O’Reilly is back again and another former Fianna Fáil councillor Shane P O’Reilly (Independent Ireland) from nearby Mullagh is joining the fray. There is likely to be a strong transfer between the two O’Reillys from whichever gets eliminated first.

DAVID MAXWELL is a co-religionist of Heather Humphreys and presumably will be hopeful of benefitting from Protestant votes in Cavan. The two Cavan Fine Gael candidates are both based in the east of the county – CARMEL BRADY in Cootehill, and T.P.O’REILLY in Virginia.

Overall East Cavan is looking quite crowded with five competitive candidates and PAULINE TULLY not far away in Kilnaleck.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Others	Ind	Proportion
Cavan	30% – 2 TDs	25%	31% – 1 TD	13%	0%	54%
Monaghan	19%	29% – 1 TD	43% – 1 TD	9%	0%	46%
Total	25.2% – 2 TDs	26.6% – 1 TD	36.7% – 2 TDs	11.4%	0.4%

Overall, there is one definite seat for  each of the three main parties. You would feel that Sinn Féin should hold their two seats but if their poll ratings don’t improve their Cavan seat might not be certain. Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael (with two candidates), Aontu and Independent Ireland are all in the hunt for one certain seat in East Cavan.

CLARE

Main Candidates : Cathal Crowe TD (FF), Sen Timmy Dooley (FF), Cllr Rita McInerney (FF), Violet-Anne Wynne TD (IND), Sen Róisín Garvey (GP), Cllr Joe Cooney (FG), Leonora Carey (FG), , Tom Nolan (Fine Gael), Cllr Donna McGettigan (SF), Eddie Punch (II)

Clare has existed since the foundation of the state. Historically a strong constituency for Fianna Fáil – Eamon De Valera held a seat until 1959 – they took over 60% of the vote on more than one occasion. In 1945 Patrick Shanahan of Fianna Fáil won a bye-election with over 72% of the vote – arguably the highest ever percentage of the vote ever achieved in a constituency.

Two notable early representatives were Patrick Hogan of Labour who represented the constituency from 1923 until 1969 (with an interlude between 1938 and 1943) when he died in office aged 83, and quixotic Independent Thomas Burke, who combined his political career (such as it was – he only spoke in the Dáil five times in total in 14 years) with bonesetting. He was defeated narrowly by Patrick Hillery of Fianna Fáil in 1951, and died later that year at the age of 76.

Other notable members include : Republican and poet Brian O’Higgins (1921-1927), Eoin MacNeill (1923-1927) nationalist, Free State minister and co-founder of the Gaelic League, Patrick Hillery of Fianna Fáil (1951-1976), future European Commissioner and President, Sylvester Barrett (1968-1987), Minister from 1977 to 1981, Father and daughter Frank Taylor and Madeleine Taylor Quinn for Fine Gael (1967-1992), Brendan Daly (1973-1992, 1997-2002), Minister on several Occasions and Moosajee Bhamjee who won a seat for Labour in 1992.

Below are the poll-toppers in Clare in 2020.

The poll-topper map is absolutely fascinating. For a start you can see how MacNamara’s base in and around Scariff is slap bang in the middle of Timmy Dooley’s base – but he also topped the poll in areas of the West including Miltown Malbay. In the rural north-west, you can see Dooley competing for votes with Breen and Conway of Fine Gael as well as Garvey of the Greens.

Garvey’s vote is also worth mention – you don’t normally see the Greens poll-topping in rural Ireland. It will be worth an investigation into the underlying demographics of the area at a later stage.

Elsewhere, Cathal Crowe’s vote was tightly concentrated between Shannon Banks and Shannon Town, while surprise winner Violet Anne Wynne topped the poll in both Ennis and Shannon.

Sinn Féin topped the poll in Shannon with nearly 40% of the vote. Ballyea voted Green – perhaps the only rural area in Ireland to do so.

I thought it would be interesting to have a quick look at how Michael MacNamara’s Labour vote of 2011 compared to his Independent vote of 2020.

He polled 17% in Ennis in 2011, and around 10% in 2020. His vote in the south-east would have been hit by the presence of both Cathal Crowe and Violet Anne-Wynne, but as said above he compensated with gains further westwards.

The follow table gives the vote takes in each Local Electoral Area for the winners and the runner-up,

AREA	Carey (FG)	Crowe (FF)	MacNamara (IND)	Wynne (SF)	Dooley (FF)
Ennis	2,105 (16%)	1,524 (11%)	1,393 (10%)	1,922 (14%)	1,913 (14%)
Shannon	1,172 (9%)	3,807 (30%)	788 (6%)	3,145 (25%)	737 (6%)
Killaloe	973 (9%)	1,237 (12%)	2,046 (20%)	1,348 (13%)	2,376 (23%)
Kilrush	562 (5%)	579 (6%)	1,469 (14%)	1,071 (10%)	974 (9%)
Ennistymon	528 (6%)	682 (8%)	1,150 (13%)	1,014 (11%)	1,248 (15%)

Note how none of them were based in the west – could a western leader arise?

Looking at the candidates, CATHAL CROWE might have to contend with the presence of EDDIE PUNCH in the Shannon area the same way TIMMY DOOLEY had to contend with Michael MacNamara last time – the absence of MacNamara will surely help Dooley this time. The third Fianna Fáil candidate RITA McINERNEY polled well in the Ennistymon area last time, but will need to expand her base to get in the running.

VIOLET ANNE WYNNE is running as an Independent this time. and is likely to face a stiff path to re-election with Sinn Fein candidate DONNA McGETTIGAN running out of Shannon as well. ROISIN GARVEY of the Green Party faces a battle as the Greens lost their only council seat in June.

Cllr JOE COONEY (FG) is a big vote-getter in East Clare and will be vying with Timmy Dooley for votes; he joins LEONORA CAREY (sister of outgoing TD Joe) and Kilkee-based TOM NOLAN on the ticket.

Overall, there is one definite seat for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with a strong chance of a second for Fianna Fáil. Sinn Féin might need a late swing to be involved this time. Eddie Punch of Independent Ireland has a chance.

CORK EAST

Main Candidates : Pat Buckley TD (SF), Mehdi Özçınar (SF), James O’Connor TD (FF), CLLR Deirdre O’Brien (FF), CLLR Noel McCarthy (FG), Mark Stanton (FG), CLLR Mary Linehan Foley (Ind), CLLR William O’Leary (Ind), CLLR Liam Quaide (SD)

Cork East is a four seat constituency which has existed in its current form since 1981. Previously the area was represented by previous iterations of Cork East, as well as the constituencies of Cork North-East, Cork South-East and Cork South.

The main towns in the current constituency are Midleton, Youghal, Fermoy and Cobh.

Notable former representatives include Brooke Brasier, an ex-Unionist from a Cork landed family who was elected for Fine Gael in 1937. On the other side of the fence, were the surviving Kent Brothers David and William from the notable Kent family of militant Land Leaguers and Republicans which had a bloody shootout at the family home with the RIC – one brother was killed and another executed. Legend has it that the two remaining brothers were about to be shot against a stone wall by the RIC when a British Army officer prevented them. David was returned as a Republican in 1923 and as Sinn Féin in June 1927. William was returned as a Fianna Fáil TD in September 1927, lost his seat in 1932, then returned as a National Centre Party TD in 1933 but refused to follow that party into new Fine Gael. Richard Barry of Fine Gael served the area for twenty-seven years – the final two of which he was joined by his daughter Myra Barry who won a bye-election in 1969. Joe Sherlock of Official Sinn Féin first contested in 1973, finally winning a seat for Sinn Féin The Workers Party in 1981 before losing it against the grain in November 1982, regaining it in 1987 for the Workers Party, losing it again in 1992 as a member of Democratic Left before finally regaining it in 2002 as a member of Labour.

In 2020, the constituency consisted of part of the Mallow Electoral Area (the town of Mallow and immediately surrounding areas – Sean Sherlock’s base), part of the Cobh Electoral Area (mainly Cobh town), and most of the Fermoy and Midleton Electoral Areas. In 2016 two candidates (Sean Sherlock and Kevin O’Keeffe) had been elected in the North (Fermoy and Mallow), and two (David Stanton and Pat Buckley) in the South (Midleton and Cobh)

Below are the figures for the “North” and “South” in 2020

AREA	Buckley (SF)	Sherlock (LAB)	Stanton (FG)	O’Connor (FF)	O’Keeffe (FF)
North (46%)	4,719 (19%)	5,262 (21%)	785 (3%)	1,632 (7%)	5,899 (24%)
South (54%)	7,676 (26%)	1,426 (5%)	5,241 (18%)	5,335 (18%)	1,472 (5%)

The vote was split fairly even on the first count between Northern and Southern candidates, which should – in theory – have led to two candidates being elected from each region as in 2016, but on the final count Youghal-based James O’Connor of Fianna Fáil beat his Fermoy-based colleague Kevin O’Keeffe by 653 votes. O’Connor had been behind O’Keeffe the whole way throughout the count, but the final transfer of Youghal Independent (ex-Fianna Fáil) Councillor Mary Linehan-Foley’s votes finally brought him ahead. Not all Politics is local, but important bits are.

The reason why the natural equilibrium of the of the constituency was disrupted seems to be because southern-based Sinn Féin candidate Pat Buckley took nearly 40% of his vote from the north of the constituency, thereby disrupting the delicate equilibrium between the two halves of this political ecosystem.

The White Line in all the images is the border between the Northern LEAS – Fermoy and Mallow – and the Southern LEAS – Cobh and Midleton. The Red Line is Mallow and surrounding areas which are being transferred into Cork North

For the most part, Southern candidates were poll-toppers in the South and vice versa in the North – the one exception was Fermoy Town (which is hidden behind the word “Fermoy”) where Buckley topped the poll.

The sundering of Mallow from the constituency meant that more than 40% of Sean Sherlock’s was transferred to Cork North-West and Cork East. Sliced and diced effectively. You can also see below how the Sinn Féin surge did not respect artificial boundaries. Not ALL politics is local, even in rural Ireland.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Labour	Others	Ind.
Cork East 2020	14,440 (27%)	10,697 (20%)	12,587 (23%)	6,610 (12%)	5,541 (10%)	4,669 (9%)
To CNC/CNW	1,821 (22%)	959 (11%)	1,509 (18%)	3,024 (36%)	717 (9%)	360 (4%)
Cork East 2024	12,619 (27%)	9,538 (21%)	11,078 (24%)	3,586 (8%)	4,824 (11%)	4,309 (9%)

Looking through the candidates, Pat Buckley TD (SF) is joined on the ticket by Cobh-based Mehdi Özçınar who was unsuccessful in the local elections – Sinn Féin won 10 seats on Cork County Council ten years ago, in June they only won one. This also means that both Sinn Féin candidates are now in the south of the constituency. James O’Connor TD (FF) is joined by Cllr Deirdre O’Brien, sister of former Kevin O’Keeffe TD who was narrowly defeated last time – she is also joined in the Fermoy area by Cllr William O’Leary who left Fianna Fáil before the local elections and was re-elected as an Independent. Cllr Noel McCarthy (FG) is also running in the Fermoy district; he is joined on the Fine Gael ticket by Mark Stanton, son of outgoing TD David Stanton – When McCarthy and Stanton Snr both ran in 2016, the latter outpolled the former by 60-40. Cllr Mary Linehan Foley (Independent) is running again; last time she got three and a half thousand votes and her transfers were instrument in securing James O’Connor a seat. Cllr Liam Quaide (Social Democrats) ran for the Greens in 2020; he got re-elected as a Councillor in Midleton for the Social Democrats and should poll creditably.

Overall, there should be fairly safe seats for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin in the south of the constituency. The open seat in the Fermoy area is probably between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but an Independent seat cannot be ruled out particularly given the strong polling support for Independents

CORK NORTH-CENTRAL

Main Candidates : Thomas Gould TD (SF), Cllr Joe Lynch (SF), Pádraig O’Sullivan TD (FF), Cllr Tony Fitzgerald (FF), Sandra Murphy Kelleher (Fianna Fáil), Colm Burke TD (FG), Cllr Garret Kelleher (Fine Gael), Imelda Daly (FG), Mick Barry TD (Solidarity), Cllr John Maher (LAB), Cllr Eoghan Kenny (LAB), Cllr Oliver Moran (GP), Cllr. Eoghan Kenny (LAB), Cllr Ken O’Flynn (Independent Ireland)

Cork North-Central is now a five seat constituency which has existed in its current form (more or less) since 1981. The heart of the constituency has always been the mainly (but not exclusively) northside of Cork City. Occasionally the constituency has taken in part of the southside but the latest iteration is fully north of the Lee. However, the constituency has always included rural areas to the north of the city and in this election will be welcoming Ballincollig (which since 2018 has been within the city boundaries) and – more controversially – Mallow.

Notable former representatives include Bernard Allen (FG), who was unusual amongst Fine Gael politicians in having a strong working-class base in Gurranebraher; Billy Kelleher (Fianna Fáil), now an MEP, who lost his first election in 1992 to his cousin Liam Burke (FG) by only 25 votes and Mairin Quill (Progressive Democrats). In 2002, Fianna Fáil managed to elect three TDs out of five with only 2.2 quotas. One of those TDs was Noel O’Flynn (FF) whose son Ken is running for Independent Ireland this time.

Below are the figures for different areas in the Constituency. The North-West Ward is mainly working-class, whereas the North-East Ward has a more mixed social profile with middle-class areas along the banks of the Lee. The Cobh LEA/rural areas (Cobh town itself is in Cork East) wind around the city from the east – the eastern areas (Glanmire/Little Island) are predominantly urban while the north is mainly rural. Mallow (to the North) and Ballincollig (to the west)are coming into the constituency.

AREA	S.F.	F.F.	F.G.	Labour	Solidarity	Others	Ind.	%
NE City	4,442 (25%)	3,532 (20%)	1,957 (11%)	1,461 (8%)	1,297 (7%)	1,952 (11%)	2,931 (17%)	30%
NW City	6,372 (39%)	3,069 (19%)	1,616 (10%)	405 (3%)	1,590 (10%)	1,508 (9%)	1,594 (10%)	27%
Cobh/Rural	1,832 (16%)	4,450 (38%)	2,949 (25%)	383 (3%)	375 (3%)	1,362 (11%)	557 (5%)	20%
Mallow	1,102 (18%)	1,194 (19%)	618 (10%)	2,406 (39%)		500 (8%)	307 (5%)	10%
Ballincollig		2,412 (33%)	1,535 (21%)			3,315 (44%)	146 (2%)	13%

First thing to notice is that over three-quarters of the vote was cast in the old Cork North-Central. The remainder was cast in Ballincollig and Mallow which are geographically distant from each other. This means that aspirant candidates from either town cannot simply rely on a huge vote in their base to get them over the line.

Second thing to notice is the size of the “Others” vote in Ballincollig. 46%. This was a combination of Aontu, Social Democrats, the Greens and Irish Freedom Party, and undoubtedly their take was bolstered by the absence of Sinn Féin in the constituency.

Thitd thing to notice is that Labour took over half their 2020 vote in Mallow – they are pursuing a two Candidate strategy this time with one candidate in the City and one in the County.

The White Lines in all the images are the border of the areas coming in from Mallow and Ballincollig. The Red Line are the areas south of the Lee in the city and in the Dripsey/Gowlane area.

Sinn Féin dominated the city area – although Fianna Fáil and the Greens did top the poll in areas along the Lee. Fianna Fáil were also ahead in much of the rural and suburban areas surrounding the city. They also topped the poll in Ballincollig, while Labour did so in Mallow.

– AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Solidarity	Labour	Others	Ind.
Cork NC 2020	12,714 (25%)	7,802 (15%)	14,440 (27%)	3,703 (7%)	2,561 (5%)	5,811 (11%)	5,356 (10%)
To CSC	1,385 (28%)	1,074 (21%)	919 (18%)	326 (6%)	220 (4%)	973 (19%)	198 (4%)
To Cork NW	478 (32%)	457 (31%)	267 (18%)	59 (4%)	24 (2%)	158 (11%)	38 (3%)
From Mallow	1,194 (20%)	618 (10%)	1,102 (18%)		2,406 (39%)	500 (8%)	298 (5%)
From Ballincollig	2,776 (33%)	1,843 (22%)				3,691 (44%)	158 (2%)
Cork NC 2024	14,821 (25%)	8,732 (15%)	13,727 (23%)	3,318 (6%)	4,723 (8%)	8,891 (15%)	5,576 (9%)

Sinn Féin fall by four points in the reconfigured constituency according to the stats – but this is mainly because they didn’t have a candidate in Cork North-Central. Solidarity fall by one point from an already perilous 7% to 6%. There is little change for Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. Labour see their vote rise to 8%, but this is split between a Cork City and a Mallow Councillor.

Looking through the candidates, Thomas Gould TD (SF) is joined on the ticket by Ballincollig-based Cllr Joe Lynch – geographically this seems a bit constrained as Gould’s base is in the neighbouring North-West of the city. Pádraig O’Sullivan TD (FF) is again joined by Cllr Tony Fitzgerald (FF) who was re-elected in the mainly working-class North-West ward – Fianna Fáil narrowly outpolled Sinn Féin there in June. They are joined on the ticket by Ballincollig-based Sandra Murphy Kelleher who is the wife of Cllr Colm Kelleher. Colm Burke TD (FG) is joined on the Fine Gael ticket by another Ballincollig-based candidate, Cllr Garret Kelleher and also Imelda Daly, a teacher from Glanmire. Mick Barry TD (Solidarity) is running again. City North-East Cllr John Maher is running again for Labour – he polled impressively in the locals. He is joined on the ticket by Mallow-based Cllr Eoghan Kenny. Cllr Oliver Moran (GP) is running again for the Greens. Finally Cllr Ken O’Flynn (Independent Ireland) – who was the runner-up last time is running from a base in the north-east of the city.

Overall, there should be safe seats for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin – and an extra seat is possible for both parties. Fine Gael should also take a seat, although their decision to run three candidates here may prove to be ill-advised if their national vote were to contract. The fact that there are three major party candidates in Ballincollig might lead to their transfers crossing over to the city proper and none of them being elected. By contrast, the distance of Mallow from the city might allow the Labour candidate to rack up large totals in the town and get into the race for a seat. Solidarity will have to hope that the Sinn Féin vote won’t recover and that they can siphon enough of their supporting support. Independent Ireland seem to be in a good position to take the extra seat.

CORK NORTH-WEST

Cork North-West was first contested in 1981, and was a Fine Gael stronghold in its early elections with the party holding two of the three seats until 1997. In 2007 the addition of Ballincollig saw three sitting Fianna Fáil TDs contesting the three seat constituency – Batt O’Keeffe and Michael Moynihan eventually emerged victorious. 2011 saw the Fianna Fáil vote fall by more than half, but they still retained one seat. They regained their second seat in 2016 and held it on 2020.

Below are recent election results.

YEAR	SEATS	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Labour	Sinn Féin	Others	Inds.
1997	3	46.5% 2	41.1% 1	7.4%			5.0%
2002	3	50.1% 2	42.1% 1	6.8%			1.0%
2007	3	53.1% 2	38.4% 1	4.9%		3.6%
2011	3	24.9% 1	48.8% 2	14.0%	7.6%	4.8%
2016	4	34.3% 2	31.9% 1		6.8%	6.4%	19.6%
2020	4	39.5% 2	33.2% 1			25.3%	1.1%

The absence of a Sinn Féin candidate saw support for Others (Aontu, Social Democrats, Irish Freedom and the Greens) jump to over 25% – in Ballincollig it was over 40%.

The map below shows the new Cork-West – the areas enclosed in white are coming into the constituency, the areas enclosed in red are going out.

In the south, the large town of Ballincollig – which is now part of Cork City – is going into Cork North-Central. A few miles to the North-west, a small rural area is coming from the same constituency. Finally to the north, Buttevant and surrounding areas are coming into Cork North-West from Cork East

It’s worth having a look at a breakdown of the vote in the Areas that make up Cork North-West – “North” and “South” refer to North and South of the Boggerah mountains which are cut across the centre of the constituency.

The table shows the breakdown of votes in 2020 by party and Area.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Others	Ind.	%
North	7,576 (45%)	6,112 (36%)	3,119 (18%)	126 (1%)	16,933 (41%)
South	8,731 (35%)	7,795 (31%)	8,289 (33%)	330 (1%)	25,145 (59%)

Note how both the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael vote were stronger numerically if not percentage wise in the south due to the vote total advantage.

The table below shows the breakdown of votes in 2020 by party and Area – if the Constituency Commission changes had been implemented.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Others	Ind.	%
North	8,203 (43%)	6,453 (34%)	4,361 (23%)	190 (1%)	19,207 (50%)
South	6,797 (35%)	6,716 (35%)	5,492 (29%)	222 (1%)	19,227 (50%)

Note first how the changes result in an almost perfectly even vote split. This means that there is a real chance that the final seat could be from the North rather than the South. Secondly – the Fianna Fáil vote count in the South was 1.2k higher than in the North in 2020 – now it’s 1.5k less.

Below are details of the main transfers during the 2020 count.

CNT	PTY	F.F.	F.G.	S.D.	AON	Ind.	NT	Total
3	Greens	438 (12%)	628 (17%)	1,677 (45%)	712 (19%)		239 (6%)	3,694
4	Aontu	1,112 (22%)	795 (16%)	2,061 (41%)			1,098 (22%)	5,066

Note particularly the high rate of transfer from Aontu to the Social Democrats – two parties far apart on the cultural spectrum at least. And this wasn’t unique – similar happened in Meath West. Clearly a pro/anti establishment cleavage was more important to voters.

Looking at the candidates, Aindriais Moynihan TD (FF) is weakened by the loss of Ballincollig but this will affect left-leaning parties to an even greater extent. Michael Moynihan TD (FF) and Cllr John Paul O’Shea benefit from the inclusion of Buttevant in the north, and O’Shea may take the sole Fine Gael seat ahead of Cllr Michael Creed (FG). If there was to be a dark horse, it could be Becky Kealy of Aontu.

CORK SOUTH-WEST (3 seats)

Main Candidates : Michael Collins TD (II), Holly Cairns TD (SD), Christopher O’Sullivan TD (FF), Sen Tim Lombard (Fine Gael), Cllr Noel O’Donovan (Fine Gael), Cllr Alan Coleman (Independent)

Cork South-West was first contested in 1961, but it covers much the same area as the earlier Cork South West – the south-west coastal portion of Cork encompassing the environs of Kinsale, Bandon, Bantry, Clonakilty and Skibbereen – which was first contested in 1923.

In June 1927, Fianna Fáil, Cumann na nGaedhal, Labour and the Farmers’ Party all took a seat, with the remaining seat going to Independent Jasper Wolfe, a Methodist Solicitor who had been British Crown Prosecutor for West Cork from 1916-1923 surviving several British assassination attempts in the process. He held the seat until his retirement in 1933.

Cork West was a poor area for Fianna Fáil – it wasn’t until 1938, the year of their greatest victory, that they finally secured two of the five seats. In 1937 Fine Gael, who had effectively absorbed the Farmers Party vote, took three of the five seats. By contrast Labour represented Cork West from 1923 until 1981with three different TDs all called Murphy – Timothy J Murphy from 1923 until his sudden death addressing a Public Meeting in 1949, his son William J Murphy (the youngest ever TD – he was just over 21 when elected) from 1949 until 1951, and then Michael P Murphy from 1951 until 1981.

In 1943, 65 year old Patrick O’Driscoll won a seat for Clann Na Talmhan. He held it in 1944 and the party nearly took a second outpolling Fine Gael by 27% to 20%. The party narrowly lost their seat in 1948 in the new three-seat constituency and never regained it, although former party candidate Florence Wycherly (father of the actor Irish actor Don Wycherly) won a seat as an Independent in 1957.

The departure of Labour’s Timothy J Murphy in 1981 ushered in an era of Fine Gael dominance with Jim O’Keeffe and P.J.Sheehan winning two out of three seats for Fine Gael in every election until 2002 – in that election O’Keeffe bested Sheehan by just 35 votes. The duo won two seats again for Fine Gael in 2007.

There was no change to the Cork South-West border in the constituency revision.

For a constituency which for three decades had returned only Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the second decade of the 21st century was one of tumultuous change. In 2011, Cork South-West returned no Fianna Fáil TD for the first in the history of the constituency and its predecessor. It also returned the first Labour TD in thirty years. All three seats were won by Fine Gael and Labour candidates – in 2020 those parties took no seats.

The following table gives the result of every election in Cork North-West since 1997.

YEAR	SEATS	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Labour	Social Democrats	Sinn Féin	Others	Inds.
1997	3	39.1% 1	44.2% 2	6.8%			8.6%**	1.6%
2002	3	39.5% 2	32.4% 1	9.1%		5.9%		13.1%
2007	3	42.5% 1	36.1% 2	9.6%		6.7%	5.1%**	2.5%
2011	3	23.1%	48.6% 2	14.3% 1		7.9%	3.3%**	2.9%
2016	4	19.6% 1	31.9% 1	7.0%		8.5%	3.3%**	29.7% 1
2020	4	23.3% 1	18.9%		10.6% 1	10.8%	5.8**	30.6% 1

NOTES:
* The National Party in 1997 is a different organisation from the current National Party.
** Votes for Others includes…. 1997 – National Party 5.1% Green 3.5%, 2007 – Greens 5.1%, 2011 – Greens 1.7% New Vision 1.6%, 2016 – Greens 1.7%, Catholic Democrats, 2020 – Greens 3.7%, Aontu 1.1%, Solidarity-People Before Profit 1.0%

The big story of the 2020 election was Holly Cairns of the Social Democrats swooping down from almost nowhere to deny Fine Gael a single seat in what had formerly been a jewel in their electoral crown. I say “almost nowhere” as Cairns did win a council seat (by a single vote) in 2019, but you still would have been hard-pressed to buttonhole her for a seat in 2020.

It must have been particularly galling for Sinn Féin who have slowly cultivated a vote here on stony soil, only for the arriviste Social Democrats to come from behind them on the first count and get elected on their transfers.

As can be seen above, Independents (in the form of Michael Collins) dominated the West of the constituency, Fianna Fáil were ahead around Clonakilty and Fine Gael around Kinsale.

It’s worth having a look at a breakdown of the vote in the three Electoral Areas that make up Cork North-West.

ELECTORAL AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Social Democrats	Others	Ind.	
Bandon-Kinsale	23%	24%	10%	7%	7%	27%	37%
Clonakilty-Skibbereen	31%	16%	12%	11%	6%	24%	37%
Bantry	16%	11%	7%	15%	4%	46%	26%

Despite the fact that Bandon-Kinsale had – marginally – the largest total of cast votes, no candidate was elected from the area. Both Margaret Murphy-O’Mahony (F.F.) and Tim Lombard (F.G.) polled decently but failed to get across the line. Christopher O’Sullivan is from Clonakilty-Skibbereen, while both Michael Collins and Holly Cairns (S.D.) are from Bantry in the West.

Below are the support maps of the three candidates elected.

Collins dominated the Bantry area in the west, although he also polled consistently well right across to the western side of the Bandon-Kinsale area.

Below are details of the main transfers during the 2020 count.

CNT	PTY	F.F.	F.G.	S.D.	S.F.	Others	Ind.	NT	Total
2	Ind.	224 (36%)	103 (16%)	112 (18%)	104 (17%)	40 (7%)	44 (7%)		627
4	Greens	177 (10%)	291 (17%)	986 (56%)	154 (9%)		75 (4%)	92 (5%)	1.765
5	Ind.	767 (38%)	548 (27%)	286 (14%)	223 (11%)			201 (10%)	2.025
6	F.G.	370 (13%)	1,888 (69%)	313 (11%)	80 (3%)			96 (4%)	2,747
8	S.F.	989 (17%)	393 (7%)	3,023 (52%)				1,427 (24%)	5,832

On the first count, the two Fine Gael candidates were collectively 3,695 votes ahead of Holly Cairns.

The second count is Collins’ surplus – not a huge surplus, but it gives an indication of the preferences of his voters. Over a third transferred to Fianna Fáil, while Fine Gael, the Social Democrats and Sinn Féin all received about a sixth each. Only 7% went to Collins’ fellow Independent, Alan Coleman. Fine Gael’s advantage over Cairns narrows to 3,686 votes.

On the fourth count, nearly 60% of the Green candidate’s votes transferred to the Social Democrats while only 17% went to Fine Gael – Fine Gael’s advantage falls to 2,991 votes.

On the fifth count, the elimination of Independent Alan Coleman – based in Bandon-Kinsale alongside Tim Lombard of Fine Gael – saw geographic factors ensure that Fine Gael’s lead rose to 3,253 votes. Again Fianna Fáil took the largest share of the Independent transfers.

On the sixth count, Skibbereen-based Fine Gael candidate Karen Coakley was eliminated transferring 69% of her vote to her party colleague Tim Lombard and 11% to Holly Cairns – this cut the deficit to 1,964 votes.

Finally on the eighth count, Lombard started over two thousand votes ahead, but Sinn Féin transfers favoured the Social Democrats over Fine Gael by a ratio of 7 to 1, leading to Holly Cairns taking the last seat by 552 votes.

The Constituency Commission recommended that there be no change in Cork South-West which thankfully makes my task that bit simpler.

Interestingly, in the local elections earlier this year the Social Democrats failed to retain the council seat Holly Cairns had won – by one vote! – in 2019 from Independent Finbarr Harrington. Indeed it was Harrington that took that seat in June. However – and quite impressively – they managed to get candidates elected in both Clonakilty-Skibbereen and in Bandon-Kinsale which would to seem augur well for Holly Cairns retaining her seat.

Looking at the candidates, Michael Collins TD (II) should be assured of a seat, Holly Cairns TD’s (SD) chances are harder to read – by conventional political logic a Social Democrat shouldn’t have won a seat in Cork South-West in the first place – but the fact that the party now has Councillors in place in two of the three areas suggests she should return to the Dáil. Senator Tim Lombard (FG) was only beaten narrowly last time, but it could be poll-topping Cllr Noel O’Donovan who will directly challenge Christopher O’Sullivan TD (FF) for the final seat., Cllr Alan Coleman (IND, ex-FF) polled well in 2016, but his vote fell back in 2020.

DONEGAL

Main Candidates : Pearse Doherty TD (SF), Padraig MacLochlainn TD (SF), Charlie McConalogue TD (FF), Thomas Pringle (IND), Nikki Bradley SEN (FG), Cllr. Noel Jordan (SF), Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF), Charles Ward (100%R), John McNulty (FG)

Donegal is a five seat constituency that has existed in its current form since 2016. It previously was contested between 1922 and 1933, and also in 1977. Protestant Independents James Myles and William Sheldon held a seat here continuously between 1922 and 1961 (though Sheldon originally took his seat as a Clann Na Talmhan candidate). Neil Blaney’s Independent Fianna Fáil nearly continuously held a seat here for over thirty years.

The 2016 Constituency was created from the previous Donegal Nth-East and Donegal Sth-West which had been in continuous existence since 1981. In 2020 Charlie McConalogue (previously Donegal North-East) beat his party colleague Pat “The Cope” Gallagher (previously Donegal South-West) by a mere 358 votes. It was even closer in 2016 when Independent Thomas Pringle (previously Donegal South-West) beat Sinn Féin’s Padraig MacLochlainn (previously Donegal Nth-East for the last seat by 184 votes. Geography matters in Donegal.

COUNTY	Doherty	MacLochlainn	McConalogue	McHugh	Pringle	Gallagher
North-East	5,591 (14%)	11,886 (30%)	7,393 (19%)	4,909 (13%)	755 (2%)	905 (2%)
South-West	14,955 (41%)	1,812 (5%)	750 (2%)	2,515 (7%)	4,557 (13%)	6,410 (18%)

Overall 52% of the vote was cast in the old North-East area, about 48% in the old South-West according to the tallies. It should be noted that the nine most southern-most DED (including the towns of Ballyshannon and Bundoran ) in Donegal are currently in Sligo-Leitrim – if they had voted in this constituency it is highly likely Gallagher would have taken the last seat.

McLochlainn, McConalogue and Pringle all took the vast majority of their vote from from their own area – however Doherty took over a quarter of his vote from the North-East, while McHugh took a third of his vote from the South-West. In fact it was Doherty’s ability to take votes from the North-East that led to MacLochlainn losing his seat narrowly to Thomas Pringle. Pringle again had reason to be thankful to Sinn Féin in 2020 as their refusal to run a third candidate saw him take over three thousand votes from the Sinn Féin Surpluses; having started in sixth position, he eventually took the third seat.

For Fianna Fáil CHARLIE McCONALOGUE and veteran PAT GALLAGHER face off again. One of them will probably be successful, although Fianna Fáil’s poll ratings in Connaught-Ulster do give some room for concern. The Wild Card in this constituency is of course the 100% Redress Party. They took 11% and four seats in the local elections – over 20% in Inishowen. Their candidate CHARLES WARD ran in the local elections in Stranorlar but wasn’t elected. Fine Gael had a nightmare at the local elections and only won three seats – it’s hard to know which of their candidates will be dominant given neither have a local electoral track record, but it is likely that Fine Gael are facing into a stiff headwind to retain a seat. Both Sinn Féin TDs should retain their seats, but taking a third would prove challenging – Mountcharles-based Councillor NOEL JORDAN will be competing directly with THOMAS PRINGLE for supremacy along the South-West Donegal Coastline.

Overall, there should at the moment be two definite seats for Sinn Féin, and a likely seat for Fianna Fáil. On the local election results, you would have to say 100% Redress are also likely to take a seat and with the vote being better in the North of the constituency the Fine Gael seat is most at risk. The final seat will likely be a battle between Sinn Féin and Thomas Pringle amongst the towns and villages of the South Donegal coast.

DUBLIN BAY NORTH

Main Candidates : Denise Mitchell TD (SF), Cllr Mícheál Mac Donncha (SF), Cian O’Callaghan TD (SD), Cllr Deirdre Heney (FF), Cllr Tom Brabazon (FF), Cllr Aoibhinn Tormey (FG), Cllr Naoise Ó Muirí (FG), Cllr John Lyons (Ind), Cllr David Healy (Green Party), Cllr Barry Heneghan (Independent)

Dublin Bay North was first contested in 2016, but the two constituencies it replaced – Dublin North-Central and Dublin North-East go back far further. Dublin North-Central was first contested in 1948, and Dublin North-East goes back even further – to 1937.

However, it’s a bit more complicated than that – up until the 1970s, Dublin North-Central was essentially a North-Inner City Constituency and up until 1981 its northernmost settlement was Clontarf. Dublin North-East on the other hand would have encompassed the gradual spread of the northern suburbs until by the 1960s it seems to have covered an area roughly equivalent to the modern Dublin Bay North. It was abolished in 1977, but reappeared in its modern form in 1981.

Well known figures in Dublin Bay North and its predecessor constituencies include George Colley (Fianna Fáil), who was originally schoolfriend and later staunch enemy of Charles J. Haughey prior to his untimely death in 1983, Michael O’Leary (Labour), who was leader of the Labour Party from 1981 until 1982 when he sensationally left the party and was elected for Fine Gael in the November election of that year, Charles Haughey (Fianna Fáil), who switched to North-Central from North-East due to the northern movement of the boundaries in 1981, Noel Browne (Socialist Labour), elected for the last time in 1981 for the Socialist Labour Party, Richard Bruton (Fine Gael), Fine Gael grandee first elected in February 1982, Finian McGrath (Independent), Minister of State from 2016 to 2020, Alfie Byrne (Independent), legendary Dublin Independent, who was originally elected as a Irish Parliamentary Party MP in 1915, James Larkin (Independent/Labour), legendary Labour organiser, elected as an Independent in 1937 and for Labour in 1943, Peadar Cowan (Clann Na Poblachta/Independent), larger-than-life character who was grandfather of actor Rory Cowan, Sean Dublin Bay Loftus, environmental campaigner who first ran in 1965 and finally won a seat in 1981 and Conor Cruise O’Brien (Labour), Minister in the 1973-1977 government and later newspaper columnist.

The 2020 election saw two left-wing Independent veterans – Finian McGrath and Tommy Broughan – bow out. They were eventually replaced by two other left-wingers – Cian O’Callaghan of the Social Democrats and Aodhain O’Riordain of Labour.

In fact this was a strong constituency for the Centre-Left, with a Social Democrat and Labour candidate elected, and a Green Candidate runner-up.

Again, you can see the social class division in the Biggest Parties map – Fine Gael led along the coast, Sinn Féin led away from it. In between Labour topped the poll in Killester and also Fairview.

There are four Electoral Areas in Dublin Bay North :

• CLONTARF, which stretches along the southern constituency, and also takes in the Donnycarney, Fairview and Killester.
• DONAGHMEDE, in the middle of the constituency, also contains Raheny, Kilbarrack and Edenmore.
• ARTANE-WHITEHALL (part), in the north-west. Contains Coolock and Darndale.
• HOWTH-MALAHIDE (part), in the north-east. Also contains Sutton, Bayside and Baldoyle.

The following table contains the party performance by Local Electoral Area.

AREA	F.F.	FINE GAEL	SINN FEIN	LABOUR	S.D.	OTHERS	INDS.	%
Clontarf (pt.)	17%	23%	16%	18%	7%	15%	4%	32%
Donaghmede	12%	16%	38%	10%	7%	11%	6%	30%
Artane-Whitehall (pt.)	12%	10%	54%	5%	4%	6%	9%	21%
Howth-Malahide (pt.)	12%	27%	15%	9%	19%	13%	5%	18%

Note how both Aodhain O’Riordain and Cian O’Callaghan had strong personal bases in Clontarf and Howth-Malahide respectively. The Sinn Féin vote was very much concentrated in the working-class areas of Donaghmede and Artane-Whitehall.

Here are the support maps for the candidates elected in Dublin Bay North.

The constituency sees three DEDs in the vicinity of Beaumont moving into Dublin North-West. The areas in question are neither particularly middle-class nor working-class. Taking the party figures at face value – the tally for the new constituency would look like this

CONSTITUENCY	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Labour	S.D.	Others	Independents	Votes
DBN 2020	14.4%	18.8%	29.8%	11.3%	8.7%	14.0%	3.0%	72,251
To Dublin NW	17.5%	16.3%	32.3%	10.7%	7.8%	8.9%	3.8%	5.197
TOTAL	14.1%	19.0%	29.6%	11.4%	8.8%	14.4%	2.7%	67,054

Looking at the candidates, Denise Mitchell TD (SF) should be assured of a seat – in 2020 Sinn Féin would have likely taken a second seat but their poll ratings would have to improve to give Cllr Mícheál Mac Donncha (SF) a decent chance. Cian O’Callaghan TD (SD) has a strong base in the north-east of the constituency and should be returned. There is likely to be one Fianna Fáil seat with Cllr Deirdre Heney (FF) and Cllr Tom Brabazon (FF) both in contention – Brabazon topped the poll in the predominantly working-class Donaghmede ward; if he can hold onto that support he has a good chance. There is likely to be one Fine Gael seat with Cllr Aoibhinn Tormey (FG) and Cllr Naoise Ó Muirí (FG) both in contention. Cllr John Lyons (Ind) made it to the second-last count in both 2016 and 2020 but may struggle this time. Veteran Cllr David Healy (Green Party) was runner-up in 2020, but with the Green tide gone out he will find it harder. Cllr Barry Heneghan (Independent), a protege of former Minister Finian McGrath might be best placed to take the seat vacated by Aodhain O’Riordain.

There should be one definite seat each for Sinn Féin and Fine Gael, followed by likely seats for Fianna Fáil and the Social Democrats. Barry Heneghan is a strong contender for the final seat.

DUBLIN BAY SOUTH

Main Candidates : Chris Andrews TD (SF), Jim O’Callaghan TD (FF), Ivana Bacik TD (LAB), Cllr. Mannix Flynn (IND), Cllr James Geoghegan (FG), Cllr Emma Blain (FG), Cllr Hazel Chu (GP), Cllr Eoin Hayes (SD), Kate O’Connell (Independent)

The current Dublin Bay South was first contested in 2016, but the (general) area it covered was first contested under the moniker Dublin Townships in 1937 after the areas Pembroke, Rathmines and Rathgar were transferred from Dublin County to Dublin City. The new constituency covered the aforementioned areas but not the south-east Inner City. In the four elections held in the three-seat Dublin Townships, it was very much a straight contest between between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, with Fine Gael taking two of the three seats in 1937 and 1938, and Fianna Fáil two of the three in 1943 and 1944. The one exception was in 1937 when an Independent Maud Walsh came within 119 votes of taking a seat from Fine Gael. Both Sean McEntee and John A Costello were TDs for the area.

Dublin South-East was first contested in 1948 on roughly similar boundaries to Dublin Townships but a major change to its representation with Noel Browne taking a seat for Clann na Poblachta at the expense of Michael Yeats (son of W.B.). Interestingly, Labour had an aristocratic candidate – The Countess of Wicklow polled 8% of the vote on their behalf. All three incumbents (Costello, Browne, McEntee) were returned on the first count in 1951, though Browne was now an Independent. In 1954 he ran under the Fianna Fáil banner but lost his seat as Fine Gael took over half the vote and two of the three seats. Vincent McDowell – father of future Green MEP Nuala Ahern – ran for Labour in this election.

1957 saw Noel Browne return to the Dail this time as an Independent; by 1961 he was representing the left-wing National Progressive Democrats in the Dail. He lost his seat running for Labour in 1965, but regained it in 1969 which was the first year the South-east Inner city was included in the constituency. It was also the first year Garret FitzGerald won a seat for Fine Gael. 1973 saw Ruairi Quinn’s first electoral outing, but he was unable to prevent Fine Gael taking two ouf three seats. In 1977 however he took a seat due to poor Fine Gael vote management, before losing it again in 1981.

1981 was the first election contested on what were broadly the modern boundaries of Dublin South-East and then Bay South. It was also the last time Fianna Fáil took two of the four seats, losing Sean Moore’s seat to Ruairi Quinn against the run of play in February 1982. 1987 saw Michael McDowell of the Progressive Democrats eat directly into the Fine Gael vote to take a seat, only to lose it ignominiously in 1989 – outpolled by John Gormley of the Greens who polled a respectable 10% on this occasion. He regained it in 1992, only to lose it again to John Gormley by 27 votes in 1997.

Above you can see the largest parties in Dublin South-East in 1997 – incidentally the earliest tally I have for any Dublin constituency. Note how Fianna Fáil and Labour topped the poll in the more working-class North while Fine Gael were dominant in the South.

They both won seats in 2002, only for Gormley to best McDowell in the “Rumble in Ranelagh” in 2007. 2002 was also Fine Gael’s annus horribilis, and the unthinkable happened in Dublin South-East with Fine Gael failing to take a single seat. 2011 saw another remarkable result, with Fine Gael and Labour both taking two seats. Defeated Fianna Fáil TD Chris Andrews later defected to Sinn Féin.

Daithi Doolan of Sinn Féin took 7.4% of the vote in 2002 in the party’s first runout in the constituency, but their vote declined in the next two elections despite the party’s gradual growth elsewhere.

2016 saw the creation of Dublin Bay South which included the entirety of the old Dublin South-East plus Terenure and Harolds Cross. It also saw Labour lose both their seats to Fianna Fáil and the Greens. Former Fine Gael TD Lucinda Creighton ran under the Renua banner, only to be bested by Fine Gael newcomer Kate O’Connell.

2020 saw further change with Chris Andrews (now Sinn Féin) taking a seat at the expense of Kate O’Connell of Fine Gael. In 2021 Ivana Bacik of Labour won the by-election caused by the resignation of Eoghan Murphy from the Dáil.

As regards the Constituency A single DED – Kimmage C which contains Harold’s Cross – will be transferred to Dublin South-Central.

The following table gives the result of every election in Dublin South-East and Dublin Bay South since 1997.

YEAR	SEATS	F. Fáil	Fine Gael	Labour	P. D.’s	Green	Sinn Féin	Others	Inds.
1997	4	25.8% 1	27.4% 1	16.7% 1	10.9%	11.7% 1		6.8%**	0.7%
2002	4	27.0% 1	16.1%	12.4%	18.8% 1	16.2% 1	7.4%	1.8%**	0.3%
2007	4	28.7% 1	18.6% 1	16.6% 1	13.2%	13.8% 1	4.7%	1.8%**	0.8%
2011	4	11.2%	35.6% 2	25.4% 2		6.8%	3.6%	3.3%**	15.8%
2016	4	11.5% 1	30.1% 2	7.0%		11.4% 1	9.1%	21.8%**	1.3%
2020	4	13.8% 1	27.7% 1	7.9%		22.4% 1	16.1% 1	9.2%**	0.4%
2021	1***	4.6%	26.2%	30.2% 1		8.0%	15.8%	10.1%**	5.1%

NOTES:
* The National Party in 1997 is a different organisation from the current National Party.
** Votes for Others includes…. 1997 – National Party 3.2% Workers Party 1.9% Socialist Workers Party 1.1% Natural Law Party 0.6%, 2002 – Socialist Workers Party 0.9% Workers Party 0.9%, 2007 – People Before Profit 1.8%, 2011 – Greens 1.7% New Vision 1.6%, 2016 – Renua 10.7%, Social Democrats 6.7%, Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit 4.4%, 2020 – Social Democrats 4.5%, Solidarity-People Before Profit 2.5%, Renua 1.6%, Irish Freedom Party 0.6%, 2021 – Social Democrats 3.2%, People Before Profit-Solidarity 2.8%, Aontu 2.8%, National Party 0.7%, Renua 0.6%.
*** 2021 was a bye-election

2020 saw Kate O’Connell – who had herself toppled Lucinda Creighton in 2016 – being toppled by Chris Andrews of Sinn Féin (and previously a Fianna Fáil TD from 2007 to 2011).

Below you can see the top-polling parties per area in the election.

It is interesting to compare the above map with that from nearly a quarter of century before. Fine Gael are ahead in roughly the same areas, but Fianna Fáil and Labour have been replaced by Sinn Féin and the Greens in the north of the city.

It’s worth having a look at a breakdown of the vote in the three Electoral Areas that make up Dublin Bay South – South-East Inner City contains the areas north of the Grand Canal as well as Ringsend and Irishtown, Pembroke includes neighhourhoods in the south-east such as Ballsbridge, Donnybrook, Sandymount and Ranelagh, while the part of Kimmage-Rathmines in Dublin Bay South includes Rathmines, Rathgar and Terenure.

ELECTORAL AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Greens	Others	Ind.	Votes%
South-East Inner City	9%	14%	37%	16%	20%	4%	23%
Pembroke	15%	34%	8%	25%	16%	2%	40%
Kimmage-Rathmines	15%	30%	11%	25%	17%	3%	37%

Below are the support maps of the four candidates elected.

Chris Andrews’ vote was very much accentuated in the north of the constituency – and also in Harolds Cross which is now going to Dublin South-Central.

Jim O’Callaghan’s vote pattern was quite similar to that of Eoghan Murphy’s – another example perhaps of how Fianna Fáil’s support base has shifted somewhat over the years.

The 2021 By-Election was a straight contest between James Geoghegan of Fine Gael and Ivana Bacik of Labour. At least it was a contest on the first count with just over a thousand votes between them, but by the final count Bacik had stretched her lead to over four thousand votes to win a comprehensive victory.

The Vote Maps for Bacik and Geoghegan are shown below.

Notice how similar Ivana Bacik’s map is to Eamon Ryan’s 2020 map.

Below I’ve looked at the differing votes per area dependent on the percentage of Middle-Class households (those with an Employer, Managerial or Professional chief bread-winner) per District Electoral Division.

For the 2020 and 2021 results I have used the relevant 2016 census data, for the 1997 results I’ve used 2006 census data (which is the earliest I have). I didn’t use 2022 census data as for 2022 there was a restructuring of the definitions of socio-economic categories which makes it difficult to compare with data from previous censuses.

AREA TYPE	F.F.	Fine Gael	Labour	Sinn Féin	Greens	Others	Ind.	Proportion
< 33% Middle-Class	3%	4%	10%	63%	2%	8%	7%	5%
33%-50% Middle-Class	3%	13%	31%	28%	8%	12%	6%	24%
> 50% Middle-Class	5%	32%	32%	8%	8%	9%	5%	71%

A few things to note from the table above:

• Sinn Féin and Fine Gael support are clearly very class-stratified, albeit in different directions.
• Labour and the Greens both do equally well in both socially-mixed areas and the wealthier areas (that dominate this constituency).

One observation I should make is that the population in Dublin Bay South – particularly in the Inner-City area – is quite possibly more middle-class than the Dail electorate due to the relatively high number of rented accommodation in the area. The national private rental rate is around 18%, but in Dublin Bay South it’s over 40%. To illustrate this I’ve made two maps comparing the Private Rental map in Dublin Bay South with its counterpart north of the Liffey in Dublin Bay North.

Note how much of Dublin Bay South has private renting rates of 40% or more, while Dublin Bay North by and large has low private rental rates.

The Central point is that in terms of the table above, several areas in the South-East Inner City might have areas that are more than one-third middle-class in terms of households but less than one-third in terms of electorate.

Below are the figures for 2020.

AREA TYPE	F.F.	Fine Gael	Labour	Sinn Féin	Greens	Others	Ind.	Proportion
< 33% Middle-Class	6%	7%	6%	57%	8%	10%	5%	5%
33%-50% Middle-Class	11%	17%	9%	26%	21%	12%	4%	25%
> 50% Middle-Class	15%	33%	8%	9%	24%	8%	2%	70%

The patterns are pretty similar to what we saw for the 2021 bye-election, except that the Greens clearly replace Labour as the Centre-Left choix-du-jour. Interestingly, of the four candidates elected, three did best in the most middle-class areas of the constituency and one did best in the least – none did best in the “middling” parts of the constituency.

Just out of interest, I also had a look at the 1997 results (using the 2006 census)

AREA TYPE	F.F.	Fine Gael	Labour	P.D.s	Greens	Others	Ind.	Proportion
< 33% Middle-Class	35%	18%	20%	4%	12%	4%	1%	8%
33%-50% Middle-Class	29%	18%	21%	6%	16%	5%	1%	21%
> 50% Middle-Class	24%	31%	15%	13%	11%	4%	1%	71%

As can be seen clearly, the voting patterns were not as aggressively class-based as they were in 2020 and 2021. Fianna Fáil and Labour did somewhat better outside the wealthier areas, Fine Gael did somewhat inside them, the Greens did best in the “middling” parts of the constituency – it was only the Progressive Democrats who did notably better in the wealthier areas.

Below are details of the main transfers during the 2020 count.

CNT	PTY	F.F.	F.G.	LAB	S.F.	Others/Ind.	NT	Total
2	Greens	113 (12%)	279 (29%)	234 (24%)	51 (5%)	292 (30%)		969
6	Renua	251 (31%)	116 (14%)	73 (8%)	57 (7%)	146 (17%)	202 (24%)	847
7	Left*	203 (6%)	265 (8%)	1,382 (40%)	1,122 (32%)		520 (15%)	3,492
8	Labour	835 (17%)	1,978 (40%)		960 (19%)		1,188 (24%)	4,971

*Left refers to Social Democrats and Solidarity-People Before Profit.

In truth, the transfers made little change to the final result – Jim O’Callaghan of Fianna Fáil was 1,150 votes ahead of Kate O’Connell of Fine Gael on the first count, 888 votes on the final one. But some of the patterns were interesting so we’ll have a look.

Interestingly, a larger part of the Green surplus on the first count went to Fine Gael (29%) than to their Centre-Left colleague Labour (24%) – the Social Democrats also got 19%.

Fianna Fáil took nearly one third of the Renua transfers on the sixth count, with nearly a quarter being non-transferable. Most of the Renua votes transferring to Fine Gael went to Eoghan Murphy rather than Kate O’Connell.

Nearly three quarters of the joint Social Democrats/Solidarity-People Before Profit transfer went left, but the Labour transfer on the final count went two-to-one to Fine Gael over Sinn Féin.

The Constituency Commission recommended that Harold’s Cross be moved from Dublin Bay South to Dublin South Central. This change will slightly disadvantage Sinn Féin, but would not have altered the result in any meaningful way.

Looking at the candidates, Chris Andrews TD (SF) may have to rely on a personal vote to survive if Sinn Féin poll ratings do not improve, Jim O’Callaghan TD (FF) won the last seat by less than a thousand votes last time – it could be a close-run thing again. Ivana Bacik TD (LAB) chances have been bolstered by the decision of Eamon Ryan to step down – there is one centre-left seat here and Cllr Hazel Chu (GP) is likely to fall short. Fine Gael had a strong local election across South-East Dublin in 2020, and it’s entirely possible that both Cllr James Geoghegan and Cllr Emma Blain will be elected – if the party’s polling holds up. A potential fly in the ointment could be former Fine Gael TD Kate O’Connell’s Independent bid. Cllr Mannix Flynn should poll decently in his inner-city base.

The one racing certainty is a Fine Gael seat. There is a likely Labour seat. After that there is probably a three way scrap for the final three seats between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin – although the Greens and Kate O’Connell cannot be completely ruled out…

DUBLIN CENTRAL

Main Candidates : Mary Lou McDonald TD (SF), Paschal Donohoe TD (FG), Neasa Hourigan TD (Greens), Gary Gannon TD (SD), Mary Fitzpatrick SEN (FF), Marie Sherlock SEN (LAB), Janice Boylan CLLR (SF), Malachy Steenson CLLR (IND), Clare Daly (I4C), Gerry Hutch (IND)

Dublin Central is a four seat constituency that has existed in its current form (or near to it since 1981 – Its core geographic areas are the North Inner City, Drumcondra and Cabra. It is traditionally seen as a working-class constituency, but parts of the constituency have undergone sizeable gentrification. Bertie Ahern was a major vote-getter in the constituency – it was also the constituency of the late Tony Gregory TD.

On the evidence of the map above – Dublin Central looks rather, well two-dimensional. It’s a bit more complex. Below is a table showing how the parties did in different areas of Dublin Central.

AREA	Sinn Féin	Fine Gael	S.D.	Greens	Fianna Fáil	Others	Proportion
North Inner City	46%	10%	8%	9%	5%	22%	25%
Drumcondra / Glasnevin	17%	25%	14%	17%	15%	14%	31%
Phibsboro / Stoneybatter	34%	13%	9%	15%	6%	18%	19%
Cabra	51%	10%	6%	8%	13%	12%	25%

Drumcondra/Glasnevin would have a relatively stable middle-class population, while there is a growing younger middle-class cohort in Phibsboro/Stonybatter. The electorate in both Cabra and the North Inner City is predominantly working-class.

It’s interesting to note that Fianna Fáil were the second most popular party in Cabra, but got a poor return in the North Inner City. The Greens polled well in the gentrifying Stoneybatter/Phibsboro area, outpolling Fine Gael.

It is something of an anomaly that in a traditionally working-class constituencies three of the four candidates elected scored the best poll in the least working-class part of the constituency.

Despite Sinn Féin’s poor polling in Dublin, there’s no reason to believe that MARY LOU McDONALD’s seat is in danger, though the prospect of a second (which they would have won in 2020) is currently remote. PASCHAL DONOHOE should also be assured of a seat, and probably GARY GANNON of the Social Democrats as well. The Dublin polling is not promising for the Greens, but in their favour is the fact that they managed to get two councillors elected in the area in the Locals. MARY FITZPATRICK of FIanna Fáil should challenge for a seat, but the party’s weakness in the North Inner City could be a problem.

Overall, there is definite seat for Sinn Féin, and a very likely seat for Fine Gael. The Social Democrats are also likely to retain their seat. The last seat at the moment might be between Fianna Fáil and the Greens.

DUBLIN SOUTH-CENTRAL (4 seats)

Main Candidates : Aengus O’Snodaigh TD (SF), Joan Collins TD (R2C), Patrick Costello TD (GP), Sen Catherine Ardagh (FF), Sen Mary Seery-Kearney (FG), Cllr Daithí Doolan (SF), Cllr Hazel De Nortúin (PBP), Cllr Máire Devine (SF), Cllr Darragh Moriarty (LAB), Cllr Jen Cummins (SD), Cllr Philip Sutcliffe (IND)

Dublin South-Central first came into existence at the time of the 1948 election – however until 1969 it covered the west and central areas of the inner city; Ballyfermot, Kilmainham and Crumlin were for the same time period in the then Dublin South-West constituency, a completely different constituency to the current one of the same name. In 1969 and 1973, Dublin South-Central was the name of a different constituency covering Kimmage, Rathfarnham, Terenure and part of Rathmines – quite similar to the current local electoral area of Kimmage-Rathmines. In 1977, Dublin South-Central reverted to its pre-1969 South Inner City origins and in 1981 the first iteration of the modern constituency emerged.

The Constituency between 1948 and 1969 was a strong one for Fianna Fáil – they won three out of five seats in 1951, 1957, 1961 and 1965. Sean Lemass was the poll-topper on all six occasions, though Maurice Dockrell of the Dockrell Fine Gael dynasty came close on one occasion.

Other interesting holders of office in this period include Phillp Brady (Fianna Fáil) who represented Dublin South-Central for a total of 23 years until his retirement at the age of 84 in 1977 and lived to the ripe old age of 102; James Larkin Junior, who was a Labour T.D. for nine years; Celia Lynch (Fianna Fáil), who represented the constituency for 23 years; Beret-wearing Jack Murphy, elected for the Unemployed Protest Committee in 1957; Thomas J. Fitzpatrick, elected in 1965, currently the oldest former Irish Parliamentarian at 98; Frank Cluskey, Labour Leader, elected in 1965.

In Dublin South-West (effectively the southern and western parts of the current Dublin South-Central), Leader of Clann na Poblachta Sean MacBride topped the poll in 1948 – he held a seat until 1957. Bob Briscoe of Fianna Fáil held a seat from 1948 until 1965, when he was replaced by his son Ben.

Michael Ffrench O’Carroll was a medical doctor originally in Clann Na Poblachta, but was elected as an Independent in 1951 – in 1953 he moved to Fianna Fáil with Noel Browne and unsuccessfully contested the 1954 and 1957 elections. He later became a pioneer of addiction care and founded Cuan Mhuire.

One of the more colourful characters of the constituency was Labour man Sean Dunne. A socialist and republican, he was interned for two years in the Curragh and Arbour Hill during the Emergency. He was elected a Labour TD on the 18th July 1969 for the constituency but died before he could take his seat.

Before the 1960s, Labour were not strong in the constituency, but in 1965 John O’Connell took a seat and in 1969 was joined (very briefly) by Sean Dunne – Labour’s four candidates took 44% of the vote and took two of the four seats, the other two being taken by Fianna Fáil.

1981 saw the first election to a Dublin South-Central on its roughly its current boundaries. In 1989, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael took two seats each, but the last seat was taken by Eric Byrne of the Workers Party. This was the last election that Fine Gael was to take two seats here. 1989 also saw the death of Labour leader Frank Cluskey who had represented the constituency up until that year. It was the last time Fine Gael won two seats.

1992 saw a week-long recount with only five votes seperating Ben Briscoe of Fianna Fáil and Eric Byrne (now of Democratic Left) – Briscoe eventually prevailed. Byrne regained his seat in 1994 in the bye-election occasioned by the death of John O’Connell , but lost it again in 1997. He finally regained in 2011 as a Labour TD only to lose it again in 2016. Incidentally 1997 saw Brid Smith’s first electoral outing where she garnered 218 votes.

Below is the Poll-topper map from the earliest Dublin South-Central tallies I have in 2007.

Note how Fianna Fáil topped the poll in the working-class areas of the South-West Inner City, Crumlin and Kimmage. To the south-east Mary Upton topped the poll in Terenure, now in Dublin Bay South.

Fianna Fáil held two seats at each election until 2011 and haven’t regained a seat yet, although they were very close in 2016. Labour took two in 2011 and lost both in 2016. Aengus O’Snodaigh of Sinn Féin first won a seat in 2002, but only held on by 69 votes from Eric Byrne in 2007.

The Constituency Commission ordered that a single DED – Kimmage C which contains Harold’s Cross – will be transferred to Dublin South-Central.

The following table gives the result of every election in Dublin South-Central since 1997.

YEAR	SEATS	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Labour	Sinn Féin	Green	Left	Others	Inds.
1997	4	34.4% 2	25.0% 1	10.4% 1	4.8%	3.9%	2.0%**	16.5%*	2.8%
1999	1***	30.1%	20.1%	28.0% 1	8.4%	6.3%	2.8%**	2.5%*	1.9%
2002	4	34.3% 2	17.0% 1	19.7% 1	12.7% 1	5.2%	3.3%**	3.1%*	4.7%
2007	4	33.1% 2	14.4% 1	21.1% 1	10.2% 1	5.8%	4.9%**	2.2%*	8.3%
2011	4	9.5%	23.4% 1	35.4% 2	13.4% 1	2.0%	12.9% 1**	0.5%*	3.2%
2016	4	12.7%	14.3% 1	7.7%	23.3% 1	3.3%	24.7% 2	8.8%**	5.4%
2020	4	11.0%	11.7% 1	4.8%	39.3% 1	9.3% 1	17.5% 2	5.2%**	1.1%

NOTES:
* Votes for Others includes…. 1997 – Democratic Left 11.3% Progressive Democrat 5.0% Natural Law Party 0.2%, 1999 – Christian Solidarity Party 2.0% Natural Law Party 0.5%, 2002- Progressive Democrats 3.1%, 2007 – Progressive Democrats 1.9% Christian Solidarity 0.3%, 2011 – Christian Solidarity Party 0.5%, 2016 – Social Democrats 5.7%, Renua 2.1%, Direct Democracy 1.0%, 2020 – Social Democrats 3.7%, National Party 1.5%
** Votes for Left Parties includes…. 1997 – Socialist Party 0.8%, Workers Party 0.7% Socialist Workers Party 0.5%, 1999 – Workers Party 2.8%, 2002 Workers Party 1.9%, Socialist Workers Party 1.4%, 2007 – People Before Profit 4.4%, Workers Party 0.5%, 2011 – People Before Profit 12.9%, 2016 – Independents 4 Change 14.5% Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 10.2%, 2020 – Solidarity – People Before Profit 11.0% Independents 4 Change 6.5%
*** 1999 was a by-election owing to the death of Pat Upton (R.I.P.) of the Labour Party

The one seat change in 2020 was the Green’s Patrick Costello ousting Fine Gael veteran Catherine Byrne – however the turnaround in voting numbers was far more dramatic.

The Sinn Féin jumped by 16 points to 39% – just under two quotas. Unfortunately for Sinn Féin, they only had one candidate, incumbent TD Aengus O’Snodaigh. This was very fortunate indeed for Independents 4 Change TD Joan Collins who saw her vote fall by more than half and retained her seat purely due to the grace and favour of Sinn Féin transfers.

Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fáil missed out on election by a very narrow margin (25 votes) in 2016; this time she didn’t make it to the last count albeit again by a very narrow margin (180 votes). Her votes might have been expected to carry Catherine Byrne of Fine Gael above Joan Collins but they failed to transfer in sufficient numbers. Would Byrne’s transfers have carried Ardagh ahead of Collins if the roles had been reversed? Hard to say, though the gap would have likely been smaller.

Below you can see the top-polling candidates per area in the election – areas south of the White Line are going into Dublin South-West next time.

It is interesting to compare the above map with that from 2007. Where Fine Gael were poll-toppers in that year, the Greens seem to have topped the poll in 2020. Fine Gael did top the poll in Chapelizod and the narrow strip of the Phoenix Park Electoral Division that runs south of the River Liffey.

It’s worth having a look at a breakdown of the vote in the three Electoral Areas that make up Dublin Bay South – Ballyfermot-Drimnagh contains Walkinstown, Chapelizod and Inchicore as well as Ballyfermot and Drimnagh, South-West Inner City contains all of the Inner City to the west of Clanbrassil Street and north of the Grand Canal as well as Kilmainham and Islandbridge, the part of Kimmage-Rathmines in Dublin South-Central includes Crumlin and Kimmage, while the small part of the Rathfarnham-Templeogue Electoral Area (which lies in the South Dublin Council area)

ELECTORAL AREA	F.F.	F.G.	S.F.	Grns	I4C	Sol.-P.B.P.	Others	Ind.	Votes%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	9%	8%	50%	5%	6%	14%	5%	3%	42%
South-West Inner City	9%	14%	31%	15%	4%	12%	14%	1%	24%
Kimmage-Rathmines (pt.)	10%	8%	41%	8%	13%	10%	9%	0%	21%
Rathfarnham-Templeogue (pt.)	24%	25%	14%	14%	4%	6%	13%	0%	12%

In terms of elected candidate geographical placements, two (O’Snodaigh and Smith) were the Ballyfermot area, one (Costello) was from the South-West Inner City and finally Collins was from the Kimmage-Rathmines area – runner-up Catherine Byrne was from the South-West Inner City area,

Both the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates polled markedly better in the mainly middle-class Rathfarnham-Templeogue area which will be in Dublin South-West next time. South-West Inner City also has a sizeable middle-class population, but it is younger and less likely to be house-owning than the population of Rathfarnham-Templeogue and probably more predisposed to moderate centre-left candidates who took nearly 30% of the vote in that area.

Interestingly, in the 2024 Local Elections, the top three candidates on the first count were all from Centre-Left parties – the Green Party, Labour and Social Democrats.

Below are the support maps of the four candidates elected.

I’ve used the same scale for all candidates which is a bit of a challenge as O’Snodaigh got 39% and Collins only 6%. In O’Snodaigh’s case, he took two-thirds of the vote in Greater Ballyfermot (three-quarters in the center of the suburb) which can’t be properly represented here. (Brid Smith took a creditable 16%, followed by Catherine Ardagh on 5%). He also polled well in Crumlin and the South West Inner-City except the area adjoining the canal.

The Green vote reached over 20% in the area enclosed by Clanbrassil Street, the South Circular Road and the R110 and also in the Islandbridge/Kilmainham area.

The following map shows the Combined vote for the Centre-Left candidates – Green, Social Democrat and Green. They took just over 40% in the Warrenmount area near Clanbrassil street, and also in the area around the Irish Museum of Modern Art near Ushers’ Quay.

Below I’ve looked at the differing votes per area dependent on the percentage of Middle-Class households (those with an Employer, Managerial or Professional chief bread-winner) per District Electoral Division.

For the 2020 and 2021 results I have used the relevant 2016 census data, for the 1997 results I’ve used 2006 census data (which is the earliest I have). I didn’t use 2022 census data as for 2022 there was a restructuring of the definitions of socio-economic categories which makes it difficult to compare with data from previous censuses.

AREA TYPE	F.F.	F.G.	S.F.	Grns	I4C	Sol.-P.B.P.	Others	Ind.	Votes%
< 33% Middle-Class	9%	9%	46%	7%	8%	12%	8%	7%	76%
33%-50% Middle-Class	13%	16%	24%	17%	4%	10%	16%	6%	15%
> 50% Middle-Class	20%	27%	13%	18%	1%	7%	15%	5%	10%

A few things to note from the table above:

• Brid Smith (Solidarity – People Before Profit) polled much better relatively speaking than Joan Collins (Independents Before Change) in strongly middle-class areas. Why precisely that was I don’t know, though perhaps Brid Smith’s increased media profile could possibly be a factor.
• The “Civil War” parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) did worst in the least middle-class areas and best in the most middle-class areas. The Left-wing parties (Sinn Féin, Independents 4 Change, Solidarity-People Before Profit) did exactly the opposite. The Centre-Left parties (Greens, Labour, Social Democrats) did worst in the least middle-class areas, but polled equally well in the most middle-class areas as well as more socially mixed areas.

Below is a SapMap of Dublin South-Central showing the percentage of EMP (Employer, Managerial and Professional) Households per area – the areas in red are below average with darkest red below 5%, and those in blue above average with darkest blue above 35%. I’m using the 2022 Census data which has a more conservative definition of what breadwinner occupations lie within the definition of E.M.P. households.

Areas south of the red line are going into Dublin South-West – areas east of the green line are coming in from Dublin Bay South.

Just out of interest, I also had a look at the 2007 results (using the 2006 census)

AREA TYPE	F.F.	F.G.	Labour	S.F.	Greens	S.W.P.	Others	Ind.	Proportion
< 33% Middle-Class	33%	12%	20%	13%	4%	6%	1%	10%	70%
33%-50% Middle-Class	32%	20%	23%	8%	10%	1%	3%	8%	21%
> 50% Middle-Class	36%	20%	21%	2%	7%	0%	6%	7%	9%

As can be seen clearly, the voting patterns were not as aggressively class-based as they were in 2020. Fianna Fáil and Labour had cross-class voting profiles, Fine Gael did better outside working-class areas and, the Greens did best in the “middling” parts of the constituency.

TRANSFERS

Below are details of the main transfers during the 2020 count.

CNT	PTY	F.F.	F.G.	Greens.	Sol.-P.B.P.	I.F.C.	Oth/Ind.	NT	Total
2	S.F.	231 (3%)	114 (1%)	408 (5%)	4,794 (57%)	1,747 (21%)	1,052 (13%)		8.356
3	Sol.-P.B.P.	17 (2%)	10 (1%)	73 (8%)		498 (56%)	290 (33%)		888
5	Lab./S.D.	414 (9%)	513 (11%)	2,219 (48%)		1,102 (24%)		344 (7%)	4,592
6	F.F.		1,647 (29%)	1,665 (30%)		1,153 (21%)		1,133 (20%)	5,598

*Oth/Ind. is mainly Labour and the Social Democrats.

On the second count, 78% of Sinn Féin transfers went to Brid Smith (Solidarity-People Before Profit) and Joan Collins (Independents 4 Change), and a further 12% went to the three centre-left parties. Clearly Sinn Féin voters heeded the party’s entreaty to “Vote Left”.

On the third count, 57% of Brid Smith’s surplus (which would have consisted entirely of Sinn Féin number ones) went to Joan Collins and a further 23% went to the centre-left parties.

Nearly half (48%) of the combined Labour/Social Democrat transfer went to Patrick Costello (Greens), leapfrogging him over Catherine Ardagh (Fianna Fáil), Catherine Byrne (Fine Gael) and Joan Collins.

Ardagh started off 296 votes behind Byrne – the Sinn Féin and People Before Profit surpluses narrowed that gap to 172, and then the elimination of the National Party and various Independents narrowed it further to 91. However, the joint Labour/Social Democrats transfer widened it again to 180, which resulted in Ardagh being eliminated.

Nearly three quarters of the joint Social Democrats/Solidarity-People Before Profit transfer went left, but the Labour transfer on the final count went two-to-one to Fine Gael over Sinn Féin.

The Fianna Fáil transfers broke fairly widely, with a surprising amount (21%) going to Joan Collins. A further 20% were non-transferable.

The Constituency Commission recommended that Harold’s Cross be moved from Dublin Bay South to Dublin South Central and that the three DEDs in Rathfarnham-Templeogue be moved into Dublin South-West. On paper, this should help parties of the Left , particularly Sinn Féin.

AREA	F.F.	F.G.	S.F.	Grns	I4C	Sol.-P.B.P.	Others	Ind.
Dublin SC 2020	11%	11%	39%	9%	7%	11%	10%	1%
From Dublin BS	11%	16%	29%	19%		4%	17%	4%
To Dublin SW	24%	26%	14%	14%	1%	9%	13%	0%
Dublin SC 2024	9%	10%	42%	9%	7%	11%	10%	1%

The sum total of the changes in Dublin South-Central – would on a strict interpretation of the 2020 tallies – result in a 3 point gain for Sinn Féin and a 3 point loss collectively for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Which – on the 2020 patterns – would see a wider gap on the final count between the Green Party and Fine Gael.

However, two things should be considered :

• Transfer rates between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are likely to be significantly higher this time. Whether this would offset the disadvantage of the FG/FF losses due to the boundary changes is questionable.
• The Green Party had a pretty good local elections in Dublin South-Central. They topped the poll in South-West Inner City and – more surprisingly – held their seat in mainly working-class Ballyfermot-Drimnagh. Could that mean that their losses will be muted in Dublin South-Central?

Looking at the candidates Aengus O’Snodaigh TD (SF) has represented the area for over twenty years and should be confident of victory – whether Cllr Máire Devine (SF) or Cllr Daithí Doolan (SF) join him might be contingent on a recovery for the Sinn Féin vote. Joan Collins TD (R2C) narrowly won a seat last time with less than three thousand first preferences – it’s hard to call her chances with a new PBP candidate and no less than three Sinn Féin candidates in the field. Patrick Costello TD (GP) on paper should have little chance of returning to the Dáil but the Greens did have a decent local elections here. Both Sen Catherine Ardagh (FF) and Sen Mary Seery-Kearney (FG) lose ground due to the boundary changes in the south of the constituency but an increased transfer rate between the twi parties may well compensate. Cllr Hazel De Nortúin (PBP) replaces Brid Smith and has a decent chance of election. Both Cllr Darragh Moriarty (LAB) and Cllr Jen Cummins (SD) were elected in the South-West Inner City and will need to ahead of the Greens for a shot a seat. Cllr Philip Sutcliffe (IND) ran in both Ballyfermot-Drimnagh (where he was elected) and Kimmage-Rathmines and took over 800 votes in both – he can’t be excluded from considerations.

There’s clearly one seat for Sinn Féin. There should be at least one seat for a left-wing candidate (De Nortuin or Collins). There is probably one seat for a centre-left candidate (possibly the Greens). Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be competing between themselves and possibly a second Sinn Féin of Left-wing candidate for the final seat. And as I said, Sutcliffe can’t be ruled out.

DUBLIN SOUTH-WEST

Main Candidates : Seán Crowe TD (SF), John Lahart TD (FF), Colm Brophy TD (FG), Paul Murphy (PBP), Francis Noel Duffy (GP), Alan Edge CLLR (IND), Ciarán Ahern CLLR (Labour Party), Teresa Costello CLLR (FF), Niamh Whelan CLLR (SF), Sarah Barnes CLLR (FG), Niamh Whelan CLLR (SF)

Dublin South-West has existed in its present form since 1981 – the previous Dublin South-West actually largely covered the parts of the current Dublin South-Central outside the Inner City.

The Constituency Commission recommended that Tallaght-Fettercairn be moved to Dublin Mid-West and that three Templeogue/Terenure area DEDS instead be moving into the constituency from Dublin South-Central. The combined effect of theses changes will make the constituency more middle-class.

The following map shows the poll-toppers in Dublin South-West – I’ve intentionally left the southern half of the constituency out so that tue urbanised northern half (where 98% of the population is based) can be seen properly. The area with the Red Border is Fettercairn which is moving into Dublin Mid-West.

The Map below shows the poll-topping parties – the areas north of the white line are coming in from Dublin South-Central. Fianna Fáil topped the poll in Firhouse, and Fine Gael in Rathfarnham and Templeogue. Everywhere else Sinn Féin was dominant.

The table below shows the performance of the parties dependent on the proportion of Middle-Class (Employer Managerial Professional headed households).

AREA TYPE	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Greens	Left	Others	Independents	%
Middle Class < 33%	14%	9%	43%	4%	13%	8%	9%	48%
Middle-Class 33%-50%	20%	19%	23%	10%	8%	12%	9%	16%
Middle-Class >50%	25%	28%	9%	13%	3%	13%	9%	36%

Historically, Dublin South-West has been seen as a mainly working-class constituency but boundary changes over the years have increased the middle-class proportion of the population and in this election well over a third of the voters will live in areas with a high proportion of Middle-Class Households. And this matters – in 2020, The Government parties got two-thirds of the vote in the most middle-class areas whereas Sinn Féin and Solidarity/People Before Profit took only 12%; in the most working-class areas, the former only took a quarter of the vote, while the latter took over half the vote.

YEAR	Middle-Class <33%	Middle-Class 33%-50%	Middle-Class >50%
2007	72%	14%	14%
2016	51%	16%	33%
2020	48%	16%	36%

Back in 2007, nearly three-quarters of the votes were cast in strongly working-class areas. The proportion of strongly Middle-class areas more than doubled with the addition of Rathfarnham from the old Dublin South in 2016. The removal of Fettercairn and the addition of parts of Templeogue and Terenure in this election makes the constituency marginally more middle-class again.

Of the candidates, TDs JOHN LAHART (Fianna Fáil) and COLM BROPHY (Fine Gael) probably stand to benefit most by the areas coming in from Dublin South-Central. Both Sinn Féin candidates SEAN CROWE TD and Cllr NIAMH WHELAN are Tallaght-based; on the 2020 results they would look likely have taken two seats, but on their current Dublin Polling, the most they can expect is one. Despite their relatively decent performance in other parts of Dublin, the Greens won no council seats in the areas within Dublin South-West which suggests FRANCIS NOEL DUFFY (Green Party) faces an uphill battle for re-election. PAUL MURPHY (People Before Profit) would likely have lost his seat had Sinn Féin ran two candidates last time, but the fact that PBP won two seats in Tallaght in the local elections gives him cause for hope.

In both 2016 and 2020, one centre-left candidate was elected which would give CIARAN AHERN (Labour) cause for hope – Labour polled strongly in the Local elections in Rathfarnham-Templeogue taking two of the seven seats. Cllr TERESA COSTELLO (Fianna Fáil) was elected on the first count in Tallaght Central, while Fine Gael Councillor SARAH BARNES (a daughter of the late Monica Barnes TD) was elected in Firhouse-Bohernabreena.

The wildcards in this area are the Independent Councillors PADDY HOLOHAN (Tallaght South) and ALAN EDGE (Firhouse-Bohernabreena). Elected for Sinn Féin in 2019, Holohan actually won a seat in both Tallaght South and Tallaght Central, while Edge took nearly a quota and a half in Firhouse-Bohernabreena; given the current strong regional polling for Independents in Dublin currently, you’d have to give one or other of them a good chance of taking a seat. In particular Holohan going toe-to-toe with his former Sinn Féin party colleagues in Tallaght will be a fascinating contest.

Overall, there should at the moment be a definite seat for Fine Gael, and a very likely seat for Fianna Fáil. There still should be two Tallaght-based left-wing/working-class candidates elected but the entry of Independent Paddy Holohan very much queers the pitch here. Although he will take more votes from Sinn Féin, it could be People Before Profit who might suffer. There was one centre-left representative elected in both 2016 and 2020, and both the Greens and Labour might be in competition with Alan Edge for the likely centre-left seat.

GALWAY EAST (4 seats)

Main Candidates : Anne Rabbitte TD (FF), Cllr Albert Dolan (FF), Seán Canney (IND), Cllr Louis O’Hara (SF), Cllr Pete Roche (FG), Cllr Clodagh Higgins (FG), Niamh Madden (Fine Gael), Cllr Declan Geraghty (II)

The Galway East constituency existed from 1937 to 1948, 1961 to 1969, and from 1977 onwards. Between 1948 and 1961 it was replaced by Galway North and South, and between 1969 and 1977 by Galway North-East and Clare-South Galway, all of which had East Galway at their core.

East Galway was a historically strong area for Fianna Fàil and their support rarely fell below 50% in any of the constituencies mentioned above. In 1948, Fianna Fáil took 71% of the vote and all three seats in Galway East; they took three out of four in 1977.

Notable personalities in East Galway include : Mark Killilea Senior and Junior and Michael Kitt Senior and Junior of Fianna Fáil, Robert Malachy Burke, a Christian Socialist from a Protestant Landed Gentry background who was runner-up for Labour in 1943, Michael and John Donnellan representing Clann Na Talmhan and then Fine Gael from 1943 until 1989.

In 2020, the three seats were taken Anne Rabbitte (Fianna Fáil), Ciaran Cannon (FG) and Independent Sean Canney – Rabbitte narrowly beat Louis O’Hara (Sinn Féin) on the final count. Canney’s vote was primarily based in the north from Tuam to Headford, Cannon in the rural south-west, and Rabbitte in the South-West. O’Hara topped the poll in Loughrea and disparate rural areas.

A strip of territory extending fron Dunmore and Glenamaddy down to Aughrim is being added to the constituency to allow it become a four-seater

Below is the 2020 result based on the revised constituency boundaries

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Others	Independents	%
Galway East 2020	10,694 (25%)	12,332 (29%)	7,108 (17%)	4,325 (10%)	8,061 (19%)	84%
Roscommon-Galway	1,053 (12%)	1,343 (16%)	1,139 (14%)	301 (4%)	4,578 (54%)	16%
Galway East 2024	11,747 (23%)	13,675 (27%)	8,247 (16%)	4,679 (9%)	12,639 (25%)	100%

On the basis of the above figures, the Independent Vote would rise steeply – however it should be borne in mind that there was a big personal vote for Michael FitzMaurice in the area coming from Roscommon-Galway, and also that the area isn’t geographically choate.

Looking at the candidates, Fianna Fáil’s ANNE RABBITTE is based in Portumna; her colleage ALBERT DOLAN topped the poll in Athenry-Oranmore in June. Fine Gael’s PETE ROCHE polled impressively in the Tuam Electoral Area in June; his colleagues CLODAGH HIGGINS (a city Councillor) and NIAMH MADDEN are based in Athenry and Portumna respectively. Sinn Féin’s LOUIS O’HARA should be favourite for taking the fourth seat – if his vote holds up. DECLAN GERAGHTY is from Williamstown in the North-East of the area coming into the constituency of Roscommon-Galway – he should poll well in that area.

On the 2020 figures, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sean Canney should all take a seat. So should Sinn Féin – on the 2020 figures. A second seat for Fianna Fáil is a possibility.

MAYO (5 seats)

Main Candidates : Rose Conway-Walsh TD (SF), Gerry Murray CLLR (SF), Dara Calleary TD (FF), Lisa Chambers SEN (FF), Alan Dillon TD (FG), Mark Duffy CLLR (FG), Keira Keogh (FG), Martina Jennings (FG), , Chris Maxwell CLLR (II), Paul Lawless CLLR (AON), Patsy O’Brien (IND)

Mayo is a five seat constituency that has existed in its current form since 1997. Previously it was subdivided into Mayo East and Mayo West (and earlier Mayo North and Mayo South). Clann Na Talmhan were strong here, particularly in east Mayo, and it could be argued that a significant proportion of the strength of Fine Gael here from the 1960s onwards was inherited from Clann Na Talmhan.

The Constituency Commission recommended that the rural DEDs south of Ballinrobe which are currently in Galway West be returned to the county and that a fifth seat be granted. If this had happened in 2020, Michael Ring would likely been the beneficiary, but the absence of a major local candidate now opens them up.

Voting patterns are generally organised on a north-south basis in Mayo. You can see how Rose Conway-Walsh (SF) and Dara Calleary dominated the North in 2022, while the indefatigable Michael Ring dominated the south all by himself.

Below is the 2020 result based on the revised constituency boundaries

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Others	Independents	%
Mayo 2020	24.1%	39.5%	22.7%	12.4%	1.2%	96%
Galway West 2020 (part)	35.3%	32.1%	15.0%	8.4%	9.2%	4%
MAYO 2024	24.6%	39.2%	22.5%	12.3%	1.5%	100%

As the boundary changes are comparatively minor, they don’t change the dial much. On the figures you would expect the last seat to be a tussle between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with each aiming to secure a second seat.

Below I’m putting up two maps – Dara Calleary’s share of the Fianna Fáil vote, and Michelle Mulherin’s share of the overall vote.

Michelle Mulherin actually started ahead of Alan Dillon on the first count – and was only 241 votes behind him when she was eliminated on the sixth count. If you look at the maps above, you can see that her allocated vote area was similar to Dara Calleary’s – except for the absence of Belmullet.

And the reason why she narrowly failed is because Michael Ring had access to all rural areas from the north-west to the south-east of Mayo – quite possibly the biggest vote range in Ireland. If Mulherin had had access to the Belmullet area, she would have likely been a TD instead of Alan Dillon.

Looking at the candidates, the Sinn Fein duo ROSE CONWAY-WALSH and GERRY MURRAY are both based in the north (albeit at some distance from one another); Murray is a strong poller at local elections but his base in Charlestown is geographically isolated right on the Sligo border. DARA CALLEARY and LISA CHAMBERS return for Fianna Fáil – the latter after a decent showing in the European Elections. Fine Gael have no less than four candidates contesting ALAN DILLON (Castlebar), MARK DUFFY (Ballina), KEIRA KEOGH (Westport) and MARTINA JENNINGS (Ballinrobe) – Mark Duffy does seem to have a large geographical area to himself in the North of the Constituency. CHRIS MAXWELL of Independent Ireland will presumably be vying for votes with Keogh in Westport, while in the rural east of the county Independent PATSY O’BRIEN and Aontu Councillor PAUL LAWLESS will be vying for votes. If they transfer into one another – and it’s a big ask given the distance between them – the stronger could be in contention.

Overall, Fine Gael should definitely take two seats and Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin one each. The last seat is hard to call.

MEATH EAST (4 seats)

Meath East (4 seats): Darren O’Rourke TD (SF), , Maria White CLLR (SF), Helen McEntee TD (Fine Gael), Sharon Tolan CLLR (FG) Thomas Byrne TD (FF), Caroline O’Reilly CLLR (FF), Gillian Toole CLLR (IND)

Meath East is a rather strangely shaped constituency which takes in East Meath – does what it says on the tin – but also north-west Meath part of which dips down to capture Kells (which on a map appears to be in splendid isolation, surrounded as it is on three sides by Meath West). It was first contested in 2007 when Fianna Fáil won two seats to Fine Gael’s one. In 2011 Fianna Fáil lost both their seats to Fine Gael and Labour. In 2020, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin won one each. Major settlements include the aforementioned Kells, Ratoath, Ashbourne and Dunboyne, the latter three closely grouped together in the south-east of the constituency near the Dublin Border.

It becomes a four-seater this time with Julianstown (including the coastal settlements of Bettystown and Laytown) in the east coming in from the Louth constituency and parts of rural North Meath including the village of Drumconrath return from a brief sojourn in Cavan-Monaghan, Figures for the new Meath East – based on the tallies – are laid out in the table below.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Others	Ind.	%
Meath East 2020	7,980 (19%)	11,871 (28%)	10,223 (24%)	6,462 (15%)	5,409 (13%)	87%
Louth 2020	582 (14%)	866 (21%)	1,433 (35%)	1,046 (26%)	120 (3%)	9%
Cav.-Monaghan 2020	611 (29%)	498 (24%)	746 (35%)	260 (12%)	3 (0%)	4%
Meath East 2024	9,173 (19%)	13,235 (28%)	12,402 (26%)	7,678 (16%)	5,532 (12%)	100%

Overall – on paper – the changes would see a slight boost for Sinn Féin. One caveat is that the areas coming from Cavan-Monaghan are quite close to Helen McEntee’s base in Nobber – the party figures in the transferred area in 2016 (The last time the six relevant DEDs were in Meath East are as follows : Fine Gael 41%, Fianna Fáil 35%, Sinn Féin 17%, Others 5%, Independents 2%.

Above is the largest parties per area – the areas enclose by the white borderlines are those coming in from Cavan-Monaghan and Louth respectively.

Looking at the internal geography of the constituency – last time two candidates (McEntee and Thomas Byrne of Fianna Fáil ) were elected from the Northern half of the constituency (broadly speaking the Northern half of the Kells Electoral Area and the Bettystown-Laytown Electoral Area) while one candidate (Darren O’Rourke of Sinn Féin) was elected in the south (the Ashbourne and Ratoath Electoral Areas). Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael Party tickets were organised on a North-South basis.

Looking at the candidates, HELEN McENTEE TD (Fine Gael) is a strong poller and will be helped by the areas of North Meath returning into the constituency; her colleague Cllr SHARON TOLAN topped the poll in Laytown-Bettystown in the recent local elections – however she is right at the edge of the constituency as half of her home town of Bettystown lies across the border in the Louth Constituency. THOMAS BYRNE TD (Fianna Fáil) will also be well-placed to take advantage of the additions to the constituency; his runner Cllr CAROLINE O’REILLY polled creditably in her first local election in June. Cllr MARLA WHITE of Sinn Féin also took a seat in Laytown-Bettystown – either herself or DARREN O’ROURKE TD should retain a seat for Sinn Féin. Cllr GILLIAN TOOLE (Independent formerly Fine Gael) took nearly two quotas on the first count in Dunshaughlin in the June local elections, and the public mood for independents as well as the absence of a Fine Gael candidate in the south of the constituency, cannot but help her cause.

Overall, The three big parties should take a seat each. Barring a swing to any of them, Independent Gillian Toole could take the final seat.

MEATH WEST (3 seats)

Main Candidates : Johnny Guirke TD (SF), Peadar Tóibín TD (Aontú), Cllr Noel French (IND), Cllr Aisling Dempsey (FF), Cllr Linda Murray Nelson (FG), Cllr Ronan Moore (SD)

For much of the last hundred years, Meath was a standalone constituency – 3 seats from 1923 to 1933 and 1951 to 1973, 4 seats in 1977, and then 5 seats from 1981 to 2002. From 1937 until 1948, Meath was part of the 5 seat Meath-Westmeath.

1932 saw Fianna Fáil take two of the three seats for the first time – Cumann na nGaedhal had taken two out of three in September 1927. Fianna Fáil took three of the five seats in all four of the election in Meath-Westmeath, and then two out of three in the newly reconstituted Meath in 1948 and 1951. In 1954 James Tully of Labour won a seat from Fianna Fáil – he lost it in 1957 but won it back in 1961 and 1981. He was of course responsible for the infamous Tullymander constituency revision which backfired for the coalition badly in 1977. John Bruton was first elected for Meath in 1969 with barely three thousand votes, but thereafter became a consummate vote getter topping the poll five times over 33 years.

The Meath constituency was split into the current format of Meath East and Meath West in 2007 with Fianna Fáil taking 4 seats to Fine Gael’s 2. It was all change in 2011, with Fine Gael taking 4 and Fianna Fáil none. In 2020, former Sinn Féin TD Peadar Toibin was elected for Aontu, but it was Fianna Fáil TD Shane Cassells who lost his seat rather than Sinn Féin.

Other Interesting candidates who have contested Meath (or Meath-Westmeath) include the 5th Duc De Stacpoole (a French aristocratic title) for the National Centre Party in 1933 – he was runner-up by just over a thousand votes, Cathal O’Shannon – father of the journalist of the same name – who ran for Labour in September 1927 and the larger-than-life character Peadar Cowan who was runner-up for Labour in all four Meath-Westmeath elections.

For the table below, I’m using the historical tallies I have available for County Meath prior to 2007.

YEAR	SEATS	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Labour	Aontu	Others	Inds.
2004	1*	36.2%	32.6% 1	15.8%	7.6%		6.0%**
2007	3	51.6% 2	29.1% 1	11.3%	4.0%		0.8%**	1.3%
2011	3	18.1%	45.9% 2	17.4% 1	13.5%		2.3%**	2.5%
2016	3	27.4% 1	32.5% 1	24.5% 1	3.0%		7.0%**	5.6%
2020	3	15.7%	24.7% 1	29.8% 1		18.6% 1	11.3%**

NOTES:
* 2004 was a by-election which was won by Shane McEntee of Fine Gael
** Votes for Others are as follows…. 2004 – Progressive Democrats 3.4% Greens 2.6%, 2007 – Greens 2.5% Fathers Rights 0.3%, 2011 – Greens 1.2% Christian Solidarity Party 0.6% Workers Party 0.5%, 2016- Greens 3.7% Direct Democracy Ireland 3.3%, 2020 – Social Democrats 6.0% Greens 4.8% Renua 0.5%.

The 2020 election saw a steep fall in votes in Fianna Fáil (-11.2%) and Fine Gael (-7.8%) with Fianna Fáil losing a seat. Fine Gael were over 8% ahead of Fianna Fáil on the first count, but two internal Fine Gael transfers took their toll and and on the final count Fine Gael’s margin over Fianna Fáil had been reduced to just over 3%.

Three Local Electoral Areas are in whole or in part within the boundaries of the new Meath West – Navan (Whole), Trim (Whole) and Kells (those parts to the South and West of the town of Kells.

The Party breakdowns in each area – and the changes with 2016 – are shown below.

AREA	Sinn Féin	Aontu	Fine Gael	Fianna Fáil	Others
Kells (17%)	40% +17%	11% n/a	25% -11%	18% -14%	6% -1%
Navan (45%)	29% -3%	27% n/a	17% -8%	16% -11%	11% -4%
Trim (39%)	25% +5%	15% n/a	33% -5%	14% -10%	14% -4%

The first thing to note is the very strong Aontu showing in Peadar Toibin’s base of Navan Town. He seems to have taken votes across the board – mind you, there could well be a bit of churn i.e. some Fianna Fáil voters moving to Sinn Féin, but being outweighed by Sinn Féin voters moving to Aontu (and other similar permutations).

In the Kells area, both Sinn Féin and Aontu seem to have benefitted from voters deserting both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. In fact, Sinn Féin nearly doubled their vote share in this Johnny Guirke’s home patch.

Fine Gael’s losses were less dramatic in Trim, perhaps due to the presence of local poll-topper Noel French on the ticket. Fianna Fáil’s losses were actually quite uniform across the constituency.

Below are the support maps for the three successful candidates – I’ve used the same colour scheme for each of them, which does underestimate the size of Johnny Guirke’s vote particularly in the Kells area (it reached 60% and over in and around Oldcastle).

Guirke achieved his best vote in the Oldcastle area, but also topped the poll in Navan despite Toibin’s strong performance. He also took over 40% in Ballivor.

Below are details of the main transfers during the 2020 count.

CNT	PTY	F.F.	F.G.	Greens	Soc. D.	Aontu	Others	NT	Total
2	S.F.	184 (8%)	234 (10%)	289 (13%)	555 (24%)	927 (41%)	81 (4%)		2,275
4	G.P.	194 (8%)	466 (20%)		1,096 (46%)	459 (20%)		165 (7%)	2,380
5	F.G.	333 (9%)	1,897 (54%)		428 (12%)	639 (19%)		327 (7%)	3,534
6	S.D.	580 (13%)	1,059 (23%)			1,694 (37%)		1,236 (27%)	4,569

The first thing that jumps out at you is how transfer-friendly Aontu (Peadar Toibin) were. They received nearly half of the Sinn Féin surplus, and also got very sizeable transfers from the Greens and the Social Democrats (despite the fact they would be – in theory – quite far removed from those parties on a Liberal-Conservative political spectrum) Adding it all together, Aontu/Toibin got 4,088 transfers during the count compared to just 1,482 for Fianna Fáil/Cassells. Clearly the Government (or associated with)/Opposition cleavage was far more important in voters’ minds compared to any ideological one. The local profile of Peadar Toibin has to be seen as a factor as well.

Elsewhere, nearly half the Green Party votes went to their centre-left counterparts, the Social Democrats as might be expected. It is worth noting that Fine Gael received more transfers on every count than Fianna Fáil – even from Sinn Féin. Perhaps Fianna Fáil were regarded by the electorate as neither Fish nor Fowl?

The Constituency Commission recommended that the new Meath West consist of the areas in Meath in Meath West last time, while the areas in east Westmeath now return to Longford-Westmeath. Roughly one-ninth of the voters who voted in Meath-West in 2020 will be voting in Longford-Westmeath this time.

The image below shows the largest parties in what was the Meath West constituency in 2020. The white line in the east line outlines the boundary between the counties of Meath and Westmeath.

There is actually something of a east-west divide in the map above. Sinn Féin topped the poll in every polling station in Westmeath as well as the adjoining Oldcastle area. Elsewhere they topped the poll in Navan, Athboy, Ballivor and Cloughjordan. Aontu topped the poll in the Gaeltacht of Rathcarn.

Taking the tally figures at face value, the party totals for the new constituency would be as follows.

AREA	Sinn Féin	Fine Gael	Aontu	Fianna Fáil	Social Democrats	Greens	Renua
Meath West 2020	30.5%	24.7%	17.6%	16.2%	5.7%	4.7%	0.5%
Westmeath	36.2%	25.7%	9.2%	21.2%	3.1%	1.8%	0.9%
Meath West 2024	29.8%	24.7%	18.6%	15.7%	6.0%	5.0%	0.5%

Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil both lose a small bit of ground on the first ground, while Aontu gains.

The net result of the change would see Aontu pull further ahead on the final count of both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, while the gap between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil would also widen slightly.

Looking at the candidates, Johnny Guirke TD (SF) should weather a drop in national Sinn Féin support, not least because he has a strong base in the rural north of the constituency. Aontu had a decent local elections in the constituency, winning a seat in Trim and increasing their vote in Navan; Peadar Tóibín TD should be confident. Cllr Noel French (IND) ran last time for Fine Gael on the back of a three thousand votes victory in the 2019 local elections, yet he tanked in the General Election. In June he won nearly four thousand votes – will the same happen again under an Independent banner? Cllr Aisling Dempsey (FF), daughter of Noel, will be contesting the Trim vote with him as will Cllr Ronan Moore (SD). Cllr Linda Murray Nelson (FG) is Navan-based.

The Sinn Féin and Aontu seats here appear to be safe. The last seat will probably be between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Noel French.

OFFALY (3 seats)

Main Candidates : Carol Nolan TD (Independent), Sen Pippa Hackett (Green Party), Cllr John Clendennen (Fine Gael), Cllr Eddie Fitzpatrick (Independent), Cllr Fergus McDonnell (Independent Ireland), Cllr Tony McCormack (Fianna Fáil), Cllr Claire Murray (Fianna Fáil), Cllr. Aoife Masterson (Sinn Féin)

The stand-alone constituency of Offaly has only existed once before – in 2016, where the entire county plus the Barony of Lower Ormond in North Tipperary formed a three-seat constituency.

On that occasion, Carol Nolan (then of Sinn Féin) edged out Eddie Fitzpatrick of Fianna Fáil for the final seat by under two hundred votes.

In all other elections since 1923, Laois-Offaly has been a five-seat constituency.

In 1922 – the “treaty” election – the four seats were contested by four pro-treaty candidates and one Labour candidate, William Davin. Davin got over 46% of the vote (2.3 quotas), presumably due to the absence of an anti-treaty candidate. However, Labour did also win 32% of the vote and 2 seats in June 1927 in a much more competitive election. Davin held a Labour seat until his death in 1956. Since then Labour has only won a seat on two occasions – in 1965 with Henry Byrne, and in 1992 with Pat Gallagher.

Despite Fianna Fáil’s later dominance, they didn’t win three out of five seats until 1938. The election of Oliver J. Flanagan of the far-right Monetary Reform Party in 1943 ensured they didn’t do so again until 1957. Flanagan won two elections under the Monetary Reform banner, and two more as an Independent before joining Fine Gael – he topped the poll in every election until 1977.

From 1957 until 2011, Fianna Fáil took three seats in every election except 1973 when they were outpolled by Fine Gael. Even in 2011, Laois-Offaly was an outlier returning two Fianna Fáil TDs in an election where the party only returned twenty.

For the table below, I’m using the historical tallies I have available for County Offaly. As you can see I’m treating Parlon’s seat as an Offaly seat – approximately 55% of his vote came from Offaly in 2002.

Otherwise, Laois candidates generally took three of the five seats, albeit by sometimes narrow margins – for instance John Maloney (Laois) beat his Fianna Fáil colleague John Foley (Offaly) for the final seat by only 311 votes in 2007.

YEAR	SEATS	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Labour	P.D.’s	Sinn Féin	Others	Inds.
1997	2*	49.4% 1	25.2% 1	17.6%	5.2%			2.7%
2002	3*	51.4% 1	21.7% 1	3.3%	14.9% 1***	2.9%	0.8%**	4.8%
2007	2	60.3% 1	25.3% 1	1.2%	7.0%	2.6%	0.9%**	2.5%
2011	2	25.0% 1	29.2% 2	4.9%		6.7%	3.8%**	33.0%
2016	3	40.8% 1	15.5% 1		5.6%	12.0% 1	12.8%**	18.6%
2020	2*	35.8% 1	14.3% 1	0.7%	3.0%	18.7%	6.8**	23.6% 1

NOTES:
* In all elections bar 2016, I’m using the amount of seats that were won in by Offaly candidates.
** Votes for Others are as follows…. 2002 – Greens 0.9%, 2011 – United Left Alliance 3.5% Greens 0.3%, 2016 – Renua 11.9% Greens 0.9%, 2020 – Greens 5.3% Solidarity-People Before Profit 0.9% National Party 0.4% Renua 0.2%
*** In 2002 Tom Parlon took a slight majority of his vote from Offaly.

In contrast to the 2016 election in Offaly, where Carol Nolan just scraped in on the last count, in 2020 she had a very comfortable cushion of over five thousand votes on the last count over the Green Party’s Pippa Hackett. In fact she secured more votes on transfers than she did through first preferences.

This was mainly – although far from totally – due to the much improved transfers she received from John Leahy. In 2016 Leahy – then an Independent – transferred 24% of his vote to Nolan (then with Sinn Féin) – In 2020 Leahy – now leader of Renua (v2) – transferred 57% of his vote to her.

As can be seen above, geography also likely plays a factor, with both Leahy and Nolan vying for votes in North-West Offaly – though Nolan pulls votes from a slightly larger area and also crucially polled better in Tullamore. However, going from a transfer rate of 24% to 57% over the course of an election suggests that that their party affiliations (or lack thereof) in 2020 were more compatible.

The Constituency Commission recommended that the new Offaly consist of the entirety of the County of Offaly – the area in Laois-Offaly in 2020 plus the portion of Portarlington town in County Offaly which was in the Kildare South Constituency last time.

The image below shows the poll-toppers in 2020 in what will be the new Offaly in the next election. The white line in the east line outlines the boundary between the constituencies of Laois-Offaly and Kildare South.

Taking the tally figures at face value, the party totals for the new constituency would be as follows.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Sinn Féin	Fine Gael	Renua	Greens	Others	Independents
Laois-Offaly	34.1%	17.2%	13.5%	6.2%	5.0%	1.8%	21.3%
Kildare South	12.6%	28.5%	6.4%		1.8%	4.5%	46.0%
Offaly	33.6%	17.5%	13.4%	6.2%	5.0%	2.0%	22.0%

However, the figures in Kildare South (i.e. North Portarlington) are very much influenced by Portarlington’s status as a Johnny-Come-Lately town to the constituency of Kildare South in 2020, resulting to nearly three-quarters of the vote there going to the two candidates with local connections – Patricia Ryan of Sinn Féin and Independent Cathal Berry.

To give a more accurate insight into how the the three Portarlington boxes vote, I had a look at the vote in the DEDs immediately bordering them (Hammerlane and Ballyshear) – the results are given below

(By the way Ryan would have been elected in Kildare South without the help of the Laois/Offaly votes, but they were absolutely crucial to Cathal Berry’s success)

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Sinn Féin	Fine Gael	Renua	Greens	Others	Independents
Laois-Offaly	34.1%	17.2%	13.5%	6.2%	5.0%	1.8%	21.3%
Port. Nth. (Estd.)	29.3%	21.1%	20.8%		9.2%	6.7%	10.0%
Offaly	34.1%	17.4%	13.8%	6.2%	5.2%	2.1%	21.3%

Interestingly, Charlie Flanagan outpolled his Offaly Fine Gael comrade Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy in those DEDs near Portarlington.

The net result of the change would have seen Barry Cowen (FF) and Carol Nolan (IND) comfortably elected on the 2020 tallies, with Brian Stanley (SF) probably taking the last seat.

Looking at the candidates, Carol Nolan TD (Independent) should greatly increase her vote given the absence of John Leahy from the ballot paper this time; which could be bad news for Cllr John Clendennen (Fine Gael) who may meet the same fate as Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy in 2020, with only one seat available in the west of the county. Cllr Tony McCormack (Fianna Fáil) has inherited Barry Cowen’s strong base in Tullamore town and should win comfortably – Fianna Fáil took four of the seven seats in the Tullamore area in the local elections in June. His running mate Councillor Claire Murray has a harder task, but she polled impressively in Edenderry in the local elections and will be going toe-to-toe with former colleague Portarlington-based Cllr Eddie Fitzpatrick (Independent) who very nearly took the last seat in 2016. Senator Pippa Hackett (Green Party) was a distant runner-up in 2020 and is not likely to get that far this time. Cllr Fergus McDonnell (Independent Ireland) is nor likely to get above Murray or FitzPatrick. Sinn Féin had a decent local elections winning three seats after being wiped out in 2019, but Cllr Aoife Masterson may find her vote being squeezed by Fianna Fáil and Carol Nolan.

Fianna Fáil will definitely take one seat, and Carol Nolan will very likely retain hers. The last seat could be a battle in the east of the county between Fianna Fáil and Eddie Fitzpatrick, but neither Sinn Féin or Fine Gael can be ruled out.

TIPPERARY NORTH (3 seats)

Main Candidates : Michael Lowry TD (IND), Alan Kelly TD (LAB), Cllr Michael Smith (FF), Cllr Phyll Bugler (FG), Cllr Jim Ryan (IND), Cllr Ryan O’Meara (FF), Dan Harty (Sinn Féin), Evan Barry (Sinn Fein)

Tipperary North has existed – apart from a brief interlude between 2016 and the present – as a stand-alone constituency since 1948. From 1948 until 2011 it consisted entirely of areas within Tipperary, with areas being exchanged intermittently with Tipperary South. From 2011 to 2016, it also consisted of the part of rural south Offaly sandwiched between the barony of Lower Ormond north of Nenagh and Roscrea and its hinterland.

Fianna Fáil were largely dominant in North Tipperary taking nearly half the seats between 1948 and 2011. Below you can see the statistics for the seat takes in both Tipperary constituencies.

CONSTITUENCY	Fianna Fail	Fine Gael	Labour	Other	Independents
Tipperary North	27 (47%)	15 (26%)	10 (18%)	1 (2%)	4 (7%)
Tipperary South	34 (44%)	23 (30%)	12 (16%)	2 (2%)	6 (8%)

Others include : Clann Na Poblachta in 1948 in both constituencies, Workers Unemployed Action Group in Tipperary South in 2007. Seamus Healy had previously run as an Independent.

Daniel Morrissey was a Trade Unionist who first won a seat for Labour in the then Tipperary Mid, North and South constituency in 1922 – Legend has it that Ernie O’Malley threatened to shoot Morrissey if he stood, but relented when Dan Breen threatened to shoot him. He broke with Labour in 1931 over his support for the Cumann na nGaedhal’s government’s plans to introduce Capital Punishment for IRA members. He soon afterwards joined Fine Gael, and remained a TD until 1957.

The two Fianna Fáil Michaels – Smith and O’Kennedy – loomed large over politics in Tipperary over four decades. The Roscrea-based Smith represented the constituency from 1969 to 1974, 1977 to 1981 and finally has a more secure tenure from 1987 until his final defeat in 2002. He held ministerial roles in Defence, Education and Environment. The Nenagh-based O’Kennedy represented the constituency from 1969 to 1981, November 1982 to 1992 and finally 1997 to 2002. He was appoint European Commissioner in 1981, but resigned and returned to domestic politics in November 1982. He held several Ministerial roles including Minister for Finance.

Special mention must be made of the November 1982 election where Michael Smith was defeated despite securing over 0.97 quotas and being only 210 votes short of the quota on the first count. I will look at this election in more detail in a separate post.

Michael Lowry was first elected for 1987 for Fine Gael – his election victories in 1989 and 1992 were relatively narrow, but he has topped the poll as an Independent ever since.

RECENT CONSTITUENCY RESULTS

YEAR	SEATS	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Labour	Sinn Féin	Greens	Others	Inds.
1997	3	42.3% 2	11.3%	10.3%			6.7%**	29.3% 1
2002	3	42.3% 2	14.9%	13.5%			3.5%**	25.4% 1
2007	3	34.3% 1	15.9% 1	10.3%	3.8%	1.1%	1.4%**	33.3% 1
2011	3	16.5%	23.7% 1	19.8% 1	6.3%	0.8%	3.0%**	29.9% 1
2016*,****	3***	27.2% 1	13.5%	13.7% 1	7.5%	2.0%	1.1%**	35.1% 1
2020*	3***	20.3% 1	8.8%	17.1% 1	10.5%	3.4%	0.2%**	39.7% 1

NOTES:
* Bye-Elections took place in 2000 and 2001. In 2016 and 2020 I’m using the tallies from the areas that will be in Tipperary South
** Votes for Others are as follows…. 1997 – Progressive Democrats 3.5% National Party 3.2%, 2002 – Progressive Democrats 3.5% 2002 – Christian Solidarity Party 0.3%, 2007 – Greens 1.5% Progressive Democrats 1.4%, 2011 – Greens 0.9%, 2016 – Greens 1.3%, 2020 – Greens 4.0% Irish Freedom Party 0.6%
*** In 2016 and 2020, three of the elected candidates in the five seat Tipperary constituency were from the five seat Tipperary constituency.
**** In 2016, the barony of Lower Ormond north of Nenagh was in the Offaly Constituency.

One of the most interesting contests in the soon-to-be-abolished five seat constituency is not the jousting between the various parties and Independents, but rather the tussle over whether the last seat will go to a North Tipperary or South Tipperary candidate.

In 2016, Alan Kelly of Labour (North) bested Tom Hayes of Fine Gael (South) by just over thirteen hundred votes, while in 2021 Jackie Cahill of Fianna Fáil (North) bested Garrett Ahearn (Fine Gael) by fifteen hundred votes.

In 2020, on the first count, Northern Candidates got 50.6% of the first preference votes compared to 49.4% for their southern counterparts. On the ninth and final count, Northern Candidates had 50.4% of the votes, compared to 49.6% for the remaining southern candidates (excluding non-transferables).

However – at every count inbetween – southern candidates actually had a majority of the votes. On the second last count, Mattie McGrath’s surplus went 2 to 1 to the remaining northern candidates (Cahill – FF and Kelly – LAB) over the one remaining southern candidate (Ahearn – FG). Browne (Sinn Féin), also of the south still had a small surplus to distribute but it would have been unlikely to make any substantial difference.

Above you can see the poll-toppers for the whole of the Tipperary constituency in 2020 with a white line signifying the coming constituency boundary- notice how far south Michael Lowry’s dominance extends south of the boundary into the area around Cashel. On the other hand, Fianna Fáil candidate Imelda Goldsboro managed to top the poll in one area (the rural DED of Buolick North) of the border.

The following table contains the party performance by Local Electoral Area.

TYPE	FIANNA FAIL	FINE GAEL	SINN FEIN	LABOUR	OTHERS	INDS.	%
Nenagh	14%	8%	9%	23%	4%	42%	29%
Newport	17%	8%	7%	40%	5%	22%	15%
Roscrea-Templemore	21%	9%	14%	8%	4%	43%	22%
Thurles	27%	7%	10%	5%	5%	46%	25%
Cashel-Tipperary	18%	15%	10%	4%	5%	47%	9%

The following maps shows the largest parties across the new constituency.

Independents – Michael Lowry and in Lower Ormond Joe Hannigan – dominated across much of the Tipperary area of the new constituency. Fianna Fáil were ahead in both the Limerick and Kilkenny portions of the constituency.

Here are the support maps for the three candidates elected in the North Tipperary area.

Michael Lowry dominated much of the east of the constituency, taking 63% in his own area of Holycross and also in neighbouring Gaile. He polled around 40% in Thurles town.

By my calculations – looking at the 2022 census figures and the tallies – just over half of those who voted in 2020 lived in Rural areas (i.e. Small Village and Rural Polling Stations), just over a sixth in smaller Urban areas (i.e. larger villages and small towns), and the remaining one third lived in larger Urban areas (in the case of North Tipperary – Roscrea, Nenagh and Thurles). Please note I’m not including the areas in Limerick City East and Carlow-Kilkenny in this analysis.

The party Support in each of these blocs was as follows :

TYPE	FIANNA FAIL	FINE GAEL	SINN FEIN	LABOUR	OTHERS	INDEPENDENTS
Larger Urban	22%	6%	14%	20%	5%	33%
Smaller Urban	15%	8%	9%	17%	7%	44%
Rural	20%	8%	8%	13%	4%	47%

In contrast to the South, Fianna Fáil did better in Urban areas -as indeed did Labour and Sinn Féin. By contrast, Independents did notably better in rural areas.

The Constituency Commission recommended that the new Tipperary North consist of the entirety of the Nenagh, Newport, Templemore-Roscrea and Thurles electoral areas, as well as parts of Cashel-Tipperary and Carrick-On-Suir Electoral Areas in Tipperary as part of north-west Kilkenny.

The image below shows the poll-toppers in 2020 in the Tipperary part of the new Tipperary North in the next election. Michael Lowry tops the poll in much of the east; his fellow independent Joe Hannigan does similar in Lower Ormond. In Nenagh town and the rural area to the south (the Newport Electoral area) Alan Kelly was dominant.

Taking the party figures at face value – the tally for the new constituency would look like this.

CONSTITUENCY	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Labour	Others	Independents	%
Tipperary	19.7%	8.2%	9.9%	17.1%	4.1%	40.9%	88
Carlow-Kilkenny	46.9%	22.6%	20.2%	1.6%	4.8%	3.8%	8
Limerick City East	31.9%	21.0%	21.9%	13.0%	9.5%	2.7%	4
TOTAL	22.3%	9.9%	11.2%	15.7%	4.4%	36.5%

However – that table does not take into account that obviously the same candidates that ran in 2020 in Carlow-Kilkenny will run in 2024 in Tipperary. The Personal Vote is a big factor, so I had a look at how the 2020 Tipperary candidates did in the areas immediately adjoining the areas coming into the constituency.

In the case of Carlow-Kilkenny, there are four DEDs neighbouring the area of Kilkenny moving into the constituency. The party totals there were : Fianna Fáil 33.7%, Fine Gael 9.9%, Sinn Féin 9.9%, Labour 4.3%, others 3.6%, Independents 38.6%. In the case of Limerick City East, there were again four DEDs neighbouring Newport and surrounding areas. The party totals there were : Fianna Fáil 14.4%, Fine Gael 9.3%, Sinn Féin 7.8%, Labour 42.3%, others 9.0%, Independents 16.9%.

If we were to assume that the the same numbers of people were to vote in both areas using the surrounding levels of support, the vote would look like this.

CONSTITUENCY	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Labour	Others	Independents	%
Tipperary	19.7%	8.2%	9.9%	17.1%	4.1%	40.9%	88
Carlow-Kilkenny	33.7%	9.9%	9.9%	4.3%	3.6%	38.6%	8
Limerick City East	14.4%	9.3%	7.8%	42.3%	9.0%	16.9%	4
TOTAL	20.6%	8.4%	9.9%	17.0%	4.3%	39.8%

Clearly – using this type of analysis – both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael see a reduction in their vote while Labour and Independents gain. There still has to be another caveat that there will be a change in candidates this time which might mean that this geographic-based analysis is no longer so relevant.

The table below shows the effects of the redraw on the votes of the main candidates based in the noth of the county.

Mattie McGrath clearly benefits most, as he would have topped the poll on the above numbers. Martin Browne on the other hand would have seen his vote split between north and south, but still would have finished second. Seamus Healy would have seen the sizeable majority of his vote remain within the borders of the new constituency.

Both of the Fine Gael candidates see nearly half of their 2020 vote stay within the borders of the new Tipperary North and can only muster two thirds of a quota between them. Imelda Goldsboro of Fianna Fáil – who is based near the new constituency border – sees over a third of her 2020 vote go North. It should be noted however that Jackie Cahill TD took in excess of two thousand votes in the South.

Candidate	Party	2020GE	Quotas	NEW TOTAL	Quotas
Lowry	Independent	14,802 (18.1%)	1.09	9,467 (27.1%)	1.08
Cahill	Fianna Fáil	7,940 (9.7%)	0.58	4,546 (13.0%)	0.52
Kelly	Labour	7,857 (9.6%)	0.57	4,896 (16.8%)	0.68
Hannigan	Independent	4,715 (5.8%)	0.35	4,013 (11.3%)	0.45
O’Donnell	Green Party	3,170 (3.9%)	0.24	1,162 (3.3%)	0.13
Newman	Fine Gael	4,926 (6.0%)	0.36	1,942 (5.9%)	0.24
Farrell	Fianna Fáil	2,233 (2.7%)	0.16	1,703 (4.8%)	0.19

The net result of the change would (on the 2020 figures) see Michael Lowry safely elected, with Jackie Cahill (if he was running) and Alan Kelly likely to join him.

Looking at the candidates, Michael Lowry TD (IND) is as safe as houses. Alan Kelly TD (LAB) has a very strong base in Nenagh and surrounding areas but will be challenged this time by Cllr Ryan O’Meara (FF). Cllr Michael Smith (FF) has a similarly strong base in Roscrea, Cllr Phyll Bugler (FG) is based in Ballina and will will be challenging Alan Kelly in his rural heartland. Veteran Thurles Jim Ryan (IND) took an eye-catching two and a half Thousand votes outpolling Michael Lowry Junior in the local elections but geography is probably against him. Dan Harty (Sinn Féin) came last in the local elections in Thurles. Evan Barry (Sinn Fein) is running from the part of Kilkenny coming into the constituency.

It is likely that the east of the constituency will elect two TDs and the West one – in which case, there will certainly be one Independent, and likely one Fianna Fáil and one Labour elected.

TIPPERARY SOUTH (3 seats)

Tipperary South has existed – apart from a brief interlude between 2016 and the present – as a stand-alone constituency since 1948. In that election it was a four-seater, and Fianna Fáil were narrowly denied a third seat by Clann Na Poblachta’s Daniel Timoney who had polled less than two thousand votes on the first count.

The margin was even narrower in 1951 when Frank Loughman of F.F. was again denied, this time by Patrick Crowe of Fine Gael who pipped him by just 142 votes. Loughman finally got his revenge when Fianna Fáil finally took three of the four seats in 1957 with Loughman besting Crowe by 123 votes on the last count.

1961 saw the election of Sean Treacy of Labour, who was to hold the seat for 36 years. In his youth Treacy has been associated with the quasi-fascist Ailtiri na hAiseirighe movement, and he clearly retained that streak of Social Conservatism which finally resulted in him being expelled from Labour for voting against a party Family Planning Bill in 1985. He held his seat against erstwhile colleague Michael Ferris in 1987, although Ferris retook the seat for Labour in 1989 when Treacy became Ceann Comhairle for a second period.

For nearly fifty years from 1951, no other party won a seat in Tipperary South outside the Big Three until Seamus Healy of the Workers Unemployed Action Group won a seat in the bye-election occasioned by the sudden death of Michael Ferris. A year later a second bye-election was held due to the death of Fine Gael TD Theresa Aherne – the seat was held by the party although WUAG came second.

In 2007, Martin Mansergh pulled off a major surprise by taking a second seat for Fianna Fáil in the then three seater at the expense of Seamus Healy – Healy was to regain his seat in 2011.

YEAR	SEATS	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Labour	Sinn Féin	WUAG	Others	Inds.
1997	3	37.3% 1	24.1% 1	16.1% 1		16.5%	6.0%**
2000	1*	22.8%	26.8%	16.8%		30.4% 1	2.9%**
2001	1*	26.5%	35.9% 1	12.9%		24.8%
2002	3	38.5% 1	24.5% 1	9.1%	3.3%	20.1% 1	0.3%**	4.1%
2007	3	46.5% 2	21.1% 1	8.8%	3.1%	14.7%	2.9%**	2.9%
2011	3	13.1%	34.4% 1	10.9%	4.5%	21.3% 1	0.9%**	14.7% 1
2016	2*	18.0%	17.3%	5.6%	6.7%	16.9% 1	1.3%**	33.7% 1
2020	2*	14.5%	16.4%	3.0%	16.6% 1	13.0%	4.6%**	31.2% 1

NOTES:
* Bye-Elections took place in 2000 and 2001. In 2016 and 2020 I’m using the tallies from the areas that will be in Tipperary South
** Votes for Others are as follows…. 1997 – National Party 6.0%, 2000 – Christian Solidarity Party 2.6% Natural Law Party 0.3%, 2002 – Christian Solidarity Party 0.3%, 2007 – Greens 1.5% Progressive Democrats 1.4%, 2011 – Greens 0.9%, 2016 – Greens 1.3%, 2020 – Greens 4.0% Irish Freedom Party 0.6%

One of the most interesting contests in the soon-to-be-abolished five seat constituency is not the jousting between the various parties and Independents, but rather the tussle over whether the last seat will go to a North Tipperary or South Tipperary candidate.

In 2016, Alan Kelly of Labour (North) bested Tom Hayes of Fine Gael (South) by just over thirteen hundred votes, while in 2021 Jackie Cahill of Fianna Fáil (North) bested Garrett Ahearn (Fine Gael) by fifteen hundred votes.

In 2020, on the first count, Northern Candidates got 50.6% of the first preference votes compared to 49.4% for their southern counterparts. On the ninth and final count, Northern Candidates had 50.4% of the votes, compared to 49.6% for the remaining southern candidates (excluding non-transferables).

However – at every count inbetween – southern candidates actually had a majority of the votes. On the second last count, Mattie McGrath’s surplus went 2 to 1 to the remaining northern candidates (Cahill – FF and Kelly – LAB) over the one remaining southern candidate (Ahearn – FG). Browne (Sinn Féin), also of the south still had a small surplus to distribute but it would have been unlikely to make any substantial difference.

Above you can see the poll-toppers for the whole of the Tipperary constituency in 2020 with a white line signifying the coming constituency boundary- notice how far south Michael Lowry’s dominance extends south of the boundary into the area around Cashel.

By my calculations – looking at the 2022 census figures and the tallies – just over half of those who voted in 2020 lived in Rural areas (i.e. Small Village and Rural Polling Stations), just under a third lived in smaller Urban areas (i.e. larger villages and small towns), and the remaining one sixth lived in larger Urban areas (in the case of South Tipp, Clonmel).

The party Support in each of these blocs was as follows :

TYPE	FIANNA FAIL	FINE GAEL	SINN FEIN	WUAG	OTHERS
Larger Urban	7.9%	14.3%	15.8%	33.5%	28.5%
Smaller Urban	13.4%	13.3%	22.7%	12.9%	37.3%
Rural	18.7%	21.1%	13.0%	5.9%	41.3%

Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Others (mainly Mattie McGrath) all did notably better in rural areas – in Fianna Fáil’s case this is at least partially attributable to the sole Fianna Fáil candidate in the constituency (Imelda Goldsboro) being based in a very rural corner of the constituency. By contrast, the WUAG figures are greatly influenced by Seamus’s Healy’s personal popularity in the only large town in the constituency.

The Constituency Commission recommended that the new Tipperary South consist of the entirety of the Cahir, Clonmel and Carrick-on-Suir electoral areas as well as the majority of the Cashel-Tipperary area.

The image below shows the poll-toppers in 2020 in what will be the new Tipperary South in the next election. As noted above, Michael Lowry tops the poll in much of the rural area around Cashel.

It’s actually quite hard to see, but Martin Browne of Sinn Féin topped the poll in Cashel, east Tipperary town as well as Carrick-on-Suir

Interestingly enough, in 2011 – map below – Tom Hayes dominated the entire north of the then Tipperary South, with Mattie McGrath’s dominance confined to his Cahir base. That year Fine Gael were in the hunt for two seats – how times have changed.

The table below shows the effects of the redraw on the votes of the main candidates based in the south of the county.

Mattie McGrath clearly benefits most, as he would have topped the poll on the above numbers. Martin Browne on the other hand would have seen his vote split between north and south, but still would have finished second. Seamus Healy would have seen the sizeable majority of his vote remain within the borders of the new constituency.

Both of the Fine Gael candidates see nearly half of their 2020 vote stay within the borders of the new Tipperary North and can only muster two thirds of a quota between them. Imelda Goldsboro of Fianna Fáil – who is based near the new constituency border – sees over a third of her 2020 vote go North. It should be noted however that Jackie Cahill TD took in excess of two thousand votes in the South.

Candidate	Party	2020GE	Quotas	NEW TOTAL	Quotas
McGrath	Independent	9,323 (11.4%)	0.68	7,197 (21.9%)	0.88
Browne	Sinn Féin	10,004 (12.2%)	0.73	5,694 (16.6%)	0.66
Healy	WUAG	5,829 (7.1%)	0.43	4,463 (13.9%)	0.55
Ahearn	Fine Gael	6,206 (7.6%)	0.46	3,336 (9.7%)	0.38
Goldsboro	Fianna Fáil	4,082 (5.0%)	0.30	2,445 (7.1%)	0.28
Newman	Fine Gael	4,962 (6.0%)	0.36	2.315 (6.7%)	0.27

The net result of the change would (on the 2020 figures) see Mattie McGrath safely elected, Martin Browne of Sinn Féin in a good – though not unassailable – position, and Seamus Healy taking the fight to Garret Ahearn of Fine Gael for the final seat.

WICKLOW (4 seats)

Main Candidates : John Brady TD (SF), Simon Harris TD (FG), Stephen Donnelly TD (FF), Jennifer Whitmore TD (SD), Steven Matthews TD (GP), Cllr Joe Behan (Ind), Cllr Edward Timmins (FG), Cllr Gerry O’Neill (Ind), Cllr. Paul O’Brien (LAB), Shay Cullen (Ind)

Wicklow has been a constituency since 1923. Notable representatives include Christopher Byrne who was a TD for Cumann na Gaedhal in the 1920s and Fianna Fáil in the 1940s, James Everett (Labour and National Labour) who was a Labour TD for 45 years until his death in 1967 – he is probably best remembered for the Battle of Baltinglass. Patrick Cogan represented the constituency as a Fianna Fáil, Clann Na Talmhan and Independent TD. More recently significant figures have included Dick Roche of Fianna Fáil and Gemma Hussey for Fine Gael.

The Constituency Commission has recommended that parts of South Wicklow be included in a new constituency of Wicklow-Wexford leading to Wicklow being reduced to a four seater. This is going to be problematic for the five TDs – all of whom are running again – as they all live in the Bray-Greystones area.

Of the ten main candidates listed above, six – including all five TDs – are based in Bray and Greystones, two – Timmins and O’Neill – are based in the Baltinglass area, and the remaining two are based in Wicklow area.

Well over half the population in the constituency live in the Bray-Greystones area in the north-east. John Brady of Sinn Féin topped the poll across Bray, Simon Harris in Graystones but Jennifer Whitmore in neighbouring Delgany, and John Brady again in Wicklow town – though Independent (formerly Sinn Féin) topped the poll in the adjacent rural areas. Billy Timmins topped the poll through much of the rural West, although again Brady topped the poll in Blessington. Two of the current TDs are based in Bray, three in Graystones.

Below is the 2020 result based on Electoral Area

AREA	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Fianna Fail	Greens	S.D.	Others	Independents	%
Bray	22%	26%	11%	13%	7%	6%	16%	30%
Greystones	29%	16%	13%	10%	23%	4%	5%	27%
Wicklow	22%	20%	12%	6%	11%	8%	22%	26%
Baltinglass	41%	23%	15%	6%	6%	3%	7%	17%

Fine Gael won 41% in Baltinglass, the only area west of the Wicklow Mountains – in Baltinglass town and surrounding areas that rose to over 50%. Billy Timmins took four-fifths of that vote, meaning that he took about a third of the vote in that area. However he still only placed 7th on the first count and was eliminated before the last count, his geographic isolation limiting his transfer-friendliness.

Also note that Jennifer Whitmore took an impressive 23% in Greystones Electoral Area – that suggests she has a strong personal base there which could help retain if the Social Democrats fall out of electoral favour.

The following table gives the likely support changes in the newly truncated constituency.

AREA	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Fianna Fáil	Greens	S.D.	Others	Independents	%
Wicklow 2020	18,392 (26%)	17,297 (24%)	9,940 (14%)	5,634 (8%)	7039 (10%)	3,815 (5%)	9,211 (13%)	100%
W’low-W’ford	3,632 (24%)	4,794 (32%)	2,897 (20%)	549 (4%)	735 (5%)	648 (4%)	1,636 (11%)	21%
Wicklow 2024	14,760 (26%)	12,503 (22%)	7043 (13%)	5085 (9%)	6304 (11%)	3,167 (6%)	7,575 (13%)	79%

Sinn Féin are the main losers in the redraw with their vote falling by two points as their vote was much stronger in the south than in the north despite their sole candidate being from Bray. Fianna Fáil’s support also falls for the same reason, while the Greens and Social Democrats slightly increase their share of support.

Final observations : Five into four will no go. There will definitely be one loser. Fine Gael will be aiming for a second seat, but given that Billy Timmins was unable to take a seat in a five seat Wicklow with a full Baltinglass area in 2020, it is a daunting task for EDDIE TIMMINS to do so in a four seat Wicklow with a truncated Baltinglass EA. That said, Simon Harris running as Taoiseach is likely to run a considerable surplus and that could haul Timmins over the line. JENNIFER WHITMORE of the Social Democrats might be on just over half a quota, but there will be one centre-left seat here and she is well placed – and she has a strong base in Delgany and Greystones. JOHN BRADY of Sinn Féin should be safe. STEPHEN DONNELLY is technically vulnerable on the 2020 figures, but Fine Gael would have to increase their vote steeply to challenge. An Independent such as SHAY CULLEN or Cllr JOE BEHAN can’t be ruled out.

Overall, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats should take seats. The last seat should go to Fianna Fáil but an Independent or Fine Gael can’t be ruled out.

WATERFORD (4 seats)

Main Candidates : David Cullinane TD (SF), Cllr Conor McGuinness (SF), Mary Butler TD (FF), Marc Ó Cathasaigh TD (GP), Matt Shanahan TD (IND), Sen John Cummins (FG), Cllr Mary Roche (SD)

Waterford was created as a four-seater in 1923, and has remained a four-seater ever since bar a sixteen year period between 1961 and 1977.

William Redmond, son of Nationalist Leader John Redmond, represented the constituency from 1923 until his sudden death in 1932, first as an Independent, then as the leader of the short-lived National League and finally a Cumann na nGaedhal TD. His young widow served as a Fine Gael TD for a further twenty years.

The Farmers’ Party and Labour both took seats here in 1923, but lost them in June 1927. It was to be over twenty years until Labour again won a seat. The National Centre Party’s Nicholas Wall won a seat here in 1933 and won re-election as a Fine Gael TD in 1938. Denis Heskin of Clann Na Talmhan won seats in 1943 and 1948.

Labour’s fortunes were restored by the victory of Tom Kyne in 1948. He held the seat until 1969, and then again from 1973 until 1977. Indeed, 1969 was the only occasion Fianna Fáil took a majority of the seats.

One of the notable factors of the 1977 election was the strong performance of Patrick Gallagher of Sinn Féin the Workers Party taking four and a half thousand votes. He eventually won a seat for party in February 1982 only to lose it in November running for the renamed Workers’ Party.

(The Worker’s Party remained a significant force in Waterford City politics after the split with Democratic Left in 1992 – Martin O’Regan was runner-up in 1997, and they retained council seats well into the 20th century. Independent TD John Halligan had also previously ran for the Worker’s Party).

More recently, Brian O’Shea regained a seat for Labour from 1989 to 2011, Martin Cullen won seats for the Progressive Democrats in 1987 and 1992, before switching to Fianna Fáil.

There was no change in the Waterford boundary, which was something of a surprise as an incursion into South Kilkenny was widely suspected by suspicious Cats.

Certainly, the boxes in Ferrybank just over the county border were much more closely related to Waterford City voting trends than rural Kilkenny ones – but any transfer would have had to include a significant chunk of rural South Kilkenny. Hence suspicious Cats. “First they came for our genetically superior hurlers, and we only sent indignant letters to the Boundary Commission.”

It’s worth having a look at the Sinn Féin vote in South Kilkenny in 2020 which shows how the huge support for Sinn Féin in Waterford City spilled over into its commuter belt over the border.

Sinn Féin polled 46% (over 50% in some boxes) in the parts of Ferrybank immediately adjoining the Waterford border – the average for Kilkenny County was 22%.

The following table gives the result of every election in Waterford since 1997.

YEAR	SEATS	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Labour	Sinn Féin	Greens	Others	Inds.
1997*	4	35.8% 2	24.6% 1	11.8% 1		1.8%	19.5%**	6.6%
2002*	4	46.3% 2	21.5% 1	13.4% 1	6.4%	2.9%	8.6%**	0.9%
2007*	4	46.5% 2	27.4% 1	11.3% 1	6.7%	2.1%	3.4%**	2.5%
2011*	4	14.0%	38.1% 2	18.9% 1	9.9%	0.9%	2.1%**	16.0% 1
2016	4	20.5% 1	28.7% 1	4.4%	18.8% 1	4.3%	5.3%**	18.1% 1
2020	4	17.3% 1	16.5% 1	6.5%	38.3% 1	7.4% 1	4.1%**	9.9%

NOTES:
* In elections from 1992 to 2011, a small rural area near Clonmel was in Tipperary South.
** Votes for Others includes…. 1997 – Workers Party 9.2% Progressive Democrats 6.5% National Party 1.9%, Socialist Workers Party 1.6% Natural Law 0.3%, 2002 – Progressive Democrats 4.6% Workers Party 2.7% Christian Solidarity 0.7% Socialist Workers Party 0.6%, 2007 – Workers‘ Party 3.4%, 2011 – Workers’ Party 1.6%, Fis Nua 0.5%, 2016 – Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 3.2%, Renua 1.7%, Direct Democracy 0.4%, 2020 – Solidarity-People Before Profit 2.1% Aontu 2.0%

David Cullinane has been the Sinn Féin candidate at every election since 2002.

The 2020 election in Waterford saw a massive increase in the Sinn Féin vote that dwarfed even their most impressive performances elsewhere – this was particularly so as outside Waterford city this is a largely rural constituency.

The map above possibly doesn’t give a proper sense of the scale of their vote, so I’ve done a close-up of the City area below.

In the city the vote was even higher – everywhere in the city south and west of the Williamstown and Gracedieu roads Sinn Féin got over half the vote. In Ballybeg they got two-thirds, in nearby Lisduggan and Larchville they got three-quarters.

The Party breakdowns for each region are shown below.

AREA	Sinn Féin	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Green	Others	Ind.
West (28%)	25%	21%	24%	5%	21%	4%
Centre (17%)	32%	25%	18%	6%	6%	13%
Waterford City (55%)	47%	14%	12%	9%	7%	12%
Total	38.3%	17.3%	16.5%	7.4%	17%	5%

NOTES:
* Votes for Others includes…. Labour, Aontu, Solidarity/People Before Profit

It’s worth having a look at a breakdown of the vote in the three city areas.

AREA	Sinn Féin	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Green	Others	Ind.
West & Tramore	44%	14%	11%	13%	7%	11%
East	34%	17%	15%	9%	6%	19%
South	65%	11%	9%	3%	6%	6%

About two-thirds of the vote in Tramore- Waterford City West was in Tramore Town and surrounding rural areas – Sinn Féin got 38% in this portion followed by the Greens on 17%. In the city part of the area, Sinn Féin got 57%, followed by Fianna Fáil on 14% – no other party or group got over 10%.

In Waterford City East, about a quarter of the vote was cast in the rural areas to the east – the votes here and in the city part were broadly similar.

Finally in Waterford City South, Sinn Féin took nearly two-thirds of the vote with Fianna Fáil on 11% a distant second.

Below are the support maps of the three highest-polling candidates elected

David Cullinane’s vote may been highest in the city, but it remained at a high level in many rural areas particularly in the east. He also took 40% of the vote in western town of Dungarvan and in the Ring Gaeltacht.

Interestingly, his vote was significantly lower in the north-east of Waterford City than in surrounding areas.

Also of note is that despite Fianna Fáil being only 417 votes ahead of Fine Gael on the first count, on the final count Mary Butler had 2,756 votes to spare over John Cummins. How did Fianna Fáil widen the gap?

Firstly, they did slightly better on other party terminal transfers – according to the table below Fianna Fáil had an advantage of over five hundred votes over Fine Gael on the cumulative terminal transfers from Sinn Féin, Labour and Solidarity-People Before Profit.

Secondly, Fine Gael’s candidates were too well balanced. Having an even split between your candidates is a good thing if you’re chasing two or more seats in a PR-STV contest – if you’re only chasing one it’s a bad thing. In Fine Gael’s case there was only 303 votes between their two candidates.

The maps below show the difference in vote sharing between the two parties.

Each map shows the percentage of the party vote going to the respective party’s lead candidates – Mary Butler in Fianna Fáil’s case, John Cummins in Fine Gael’s.

The map above shows John Cummins’ share of the Fine Gael vote. City-based Cummins shared the ticket with Dungarvan-based Damian Geoghegan. As can be seen, Cummins has a majority of the vote east of a line everywhere from the village of Stradbally in the south up to Clonmel on the northern border with Tipperary. In the three City Electoral areas he took 89% of the Fine Gael vote.

By contrast, in Fianna Fáil, Mary Butler completely dominated the rual centre and west of the constituency. She also – according to the tallies – narrowly bested her running-mate Eddie Mulligan in the City Electoral Areas by 51% to 49%.

This presumably didn’t bolster an amiable camaraderie between the sitting TD and her running-mate, but it ultimately aided Fianna Fáil taking a seat at the expense of Fine Gael.

Below are details of the main transfers during the 2020 count.

CNT	PTY	F.F.	F.G.	Greens	Labour	S.-P.B.P.	Aontu	Independents	NT	Total
2	S.F.	1,101 (11%)	693 (7%)	1,384 (14%)	808 (8%)	3,208 (33%)	377 (4%)	2,246 (23%)		9,817
5	Labour	1,219 (26%)	1,098 (24%)	897 (19%)		500 (11%)		691 (15%)	197 (4%)	4,602
6	S.-P.B.P.	161 (3%)	152 (3%)	2,245 (41%)		218 (13%)		1,651 (30%)	1,017 (9%)	5,444

The biggest recipient by far of the Sinn Féin surplus was Una Dunphy of Solidarity-People Before Profit who saw her vote nearly quadruple with over three thousand transfers. However at a transfer rate of just 33%, it wasn’t enough to put her in contention for a seat. Both the Greens and Independent got enough votes to remain ahead of her.

Half the Labour vote went to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and it was probably somewhat geographically slanted due the Labour candidate’s popularity in rural West Waterford.

Finally, the Solidarity/People Before Profit elimination transfer – over half of which consisted of Sinn Féin number ones – was very interesting.

Firstly, only 6% of the transfers went to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – 18% of the original Sinn Féin surplus went to those two parties. Clearly, Sinn Féin votes who transferred to Solidarity/People Before Profit were less inclined to transfer their vote to the Civil War parties.

Secondly, Sinn Féin transfers on the first count preferred Independent Matt Shanahan to the Greens. But the Solidarity/People Before Profit transfers (over half of which were SF votes) instead went 41% to the Greens over 30% for Shanahan.

The Constituency Commission recommended that there be no change in Waterford which thankfully makes my task that bit simpler.

On the 2020 tally figures – a gain for Sinn Féin would be almost inevitable with the Green Party looking most vulnerable.

Looking at the candidates, David Cullinane TD (SF) is surely guaranteed a seat; his running-mate Cllr Conor McGuinness (SF) should be in the hunt and the fact that he is the only major party candidate in the west of the county cannot but help him. Mary Butler TD (FF) should also retake her seat, although she might come under pressure from Sen John Cummins of Fine Gael. Matt Shanahan TD (IND) will be in direct competition with Cummins in the more bespoke suburbs of Waterford City. Marc Ó Cathasaigh TD (GP) relied on Sinn Féin transfers to get elected in 2020; his path to victory now is more difficult. Cllr Mary Roche (SD) probably won’t be in contention.

WEXFORD-WICKLOW (3 seats)

Main Candidates : Malcolm Byrne SEN (FF), Pat Kennedy CLLR (FF), Fionntán O Súillebháin CLLR (SF), Brian Brennan (FG), Cllr. Peir Leonard (IND)

Wexford-Wicklow is a new constituency, amalgamating North Wexford with South Wexford. In Wicklow the town of Arklow and the villages of Carnew, Shillelagh and Tinahely are included; in Wexford, the towns of Gorey, Courtown and Bunclody. Roughly 40% of the voters in 2020 were in Wicklow, the remaining 60% in Wexford.

It’s also a very unusual constituency in that it has no sitting TDs – all ten TDs in the current Wexford and Wicklow constituencies live outside the area and none are running here.

Of the Five main candidates above, three – Malcolm Byrne, Brian Brennan and Fiontainn O’Suilleabhain – are based in Gorey town and the other two – Kennedy and Leonard – are based in Arklow town. In addition Brennan apparently lives in Gorey but works in Arklow.

The Wicklow area is not very choate – it’s a long sliver of territory. Carnew is arguably closer to Gorey than to Arklow. The Wexford area is more compact, containing as it does the whole of the Gorey Area

Below is the 2020 result based on the revised constituency boundaries

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Others	Independents
Wexford 2020	6,770 (32%)	5,516 (26%)	5,401 (26%)	1,932 (13%)	1,061 (5%)
Wicklow 2020	2,897 (20%)	3,632 (24%)	4,794 (32%)	2,377 (11%)	1,636 (11%)
WICKLOW-WEXFORD	9,667 (27%)	9,148 (25%)	10,195 (28%)	4,309 (12%)	2,705 (8%)

All three major parties polled better in Wexford than Wicklow, though in Sinn Féin’s case the difference was not substantial. Fianna Fáil took less than three thousand votes in Wicklow, but the entry of poll-topping Arklow Councillor Pat Kennedy is likely to improve that considerably.

The most prolific poll-topper in the Wicklow area wasn’t even from the area – it was John Brady (SF) of Bray. The picture in Wexford was more mixed.

Given that the majority of the population and the electorate of the constituency are on the Wexford side of the border, the fact that there is only major party candidate on the Wicklow side, and indeed the rather unusual geography of the Wicklow portion of the constituency, it’s nothing unreasonable to conclude that at least two of the three TDs here will be elected from the Wexford side.

Also worth considering is that there are three main party candidates in Gorey Town – Senator MALCOLM BYRNE of Fianna Fáil, BRIAN BRENNAN of Fine Gael, and Fionntain O’Suilleabhain of Sinn Féin. In the town itself in 2020, Fianna Fáil took 37% (mostly Byrne), Sinn Féin 31% and Fine Gael 18% – Fine Gael with Michael D’Arcy as their lead candidate in the area would have done in rural areas, whereas you would expect Brennan to possibly appeal more to the urban electorate. PAT KENNEDY delivered an eye-catching performance in Arklow in June, taking nearly two quotas on the first count and the absence of direct Fine Gael and Sinn Féin competition in the town won’t hurt – perhaps his bigger issue is to get a solid Wicklow vote out of the rural areas and small communities in the part of the Baltinglass Electoral Area within Wicklow-Wexford. PEIR LEONARD was elected as an Independent on the first count in Arklow, and given the favourable polling for Independents at the moment, she can’t be discounted.

Overall, Fianna Fáil should definitely take one seat and Fine Gael very likely to take one. Sinn Féin should take one, but given their current moderate polling, a second Fianna Fail seat or an Independent one cannot be completely discounted.

SNIPPETS

CORK SOUTH-CENTRAL (5 seats)

Main Candidates : Micheál Martin TD (FF), Cllr Séamus McGrath (FF), Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire TD (SF), Sen Jerry Buttimer (FG), Cllr Úna McCarthy (FG), Cllr Shane O’Callaghan (FG), Cllr Paudie Dineen (IND), Cllr Laura Harmon (LAB), Cllr Pádraig Rice (SD), Michelle Cowhey Shahid (SF), Margaret Kenneally (FF)

There is an extra seat here, with areas south of the Lee currently in Cork North-Central being returned to South-Central.

The Biggest Parties in each area are shown above – the areas contained within the white line are areas coming back from Cork North-Central – Bishopstown in the west and parts of Glasheen and Gillabbey.

Below is a close up of Sinn Féin’s vote in the city.

The following table calculates the true total votes in 2020 in the area which will be in Cork South-Central this time.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Others	Independents
Cork South-Central 2020	20,350 (36%)	12,155 (21%)	14,057 (25%)	9,833 (17%)	836 (2%)
From CNC 2020	1,385 (27%)	1,074 (21%)	919 (18%)	1,501 (30%)	198 (4%)
CORK SOUTH-CENTRAL	31,735 (35%)	13,229 (21%)	14,976 (24%)	11,334 (18%)	1,034 (2%)

Looking at the candidates, Micheál Martin TD (FF) and Cllr Séamus McGrath (FF) should be guaranteed seats as indeed should Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire TD (SF), Fine Gael will be looking to take a seat in both the city and the county; in the former Sen Jerry Buttimer (FG) could be under pressure from his colleague poll-topping Councillor Shane O’Callaghan. Cllr Úna McCarthy (FG) should have a decent chance in the Carrigaline area. Cllr Paudie Dineen (IND), Cllr Laura Harmon (LAB) and Cllr Pádraig Rice (SD) – all city councillors – cannot be ruled out.

Fianna Fáil should easily get two TDs elected, and Fine Gael and Sinn Féin one each. The last seat is more difficult to call.

DUBLIN MID-WEST (5 seats)

Main Candidates : Eoin Ó Broin TD (SF), Mark Ward TD (SF), Emer Higgins TD (FG), Cllr Vicki Casserly (FG), Gino Kenny (PBP), Cllr Paul Gogarty (IND), Cllr Francis Timmons (Labour Party), Cllr Alan Hayes (IND), Cllr. Eoin Ó Broin (Social Democrats), Cllr Shane Moynihan (FF), Cllr Linda de Courcy (II), Cllr Glen Moore (IFP)

Dublin Mid-West becomes a 5-seater with the addition of Fettercairn from Tallaght.

There is a binary east-west divide in Mid-West. Sinn Féin were strongest in Clondalkin.

Dublin Mid-West elected three left-wing TDs out of four in 2020 – the addition of Fettercairn from Tallaght should in theory make the constituency even more left-wing. In theory – it’s a big area, but with low turnout. Despite the left taking 83% of the cast votes there, that barely moves the dial on the overall figures.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	P.B.P.	Others	Independents
Dublin MW 2020	5,399 (12%)	7,641 (18%)	18,475 (42%)	3,444 (8%)	4,264 (10%)	4,418 (10%)
From DSW 2020	104 (5%)	69 (3%)	1,282 (63%)	497 (20%)	83 (4%)	93 (4%)
DUBLIN MID-WEST	5,503 (12%)	7,710 (17%)	19,757 (43%)	3,851 (8%)	4,347 (10%)	4,511 (10%)

Looking at the candidates, Sinn Féin seem to have decided on a conservative two-candidate strategy with Eoin Ó Broin TD and Mark Ward TD (SF) – if their vote recovers in the next few days they may rue the absence of a third candidate. Emer Higgins TD (FG) has a decent base in the more rural parts of the constituency although Lucan-based Cllr Vicki Casserly (FG) wasn’t that far behind her in 2020 – there should be a seat hetween them. Gino Kenny TD (PBP) survived by 706 votes in 2020; the addition of an extra seat and Fettercairn will be a boon to his chances. Cllr Shane Moynihan (FF) topped the poll in Palmerstown-Fonthill and will have strong hopes of a seat in the five seat constuency. Cllr Paul Gogarty (IND, ex-GP) ran in both Lucan and Palmerstown-Fonthill in June and took nearly three and a half thousand votes between them winning a seat in the former and narrowly missing out in the latter. Cllr Francis Timmons (LAB, ex-IND) topped the poll in Clondalkin as an Independent – how he fares under a Labour banner remains to be seen. Cllr Alan Hayes (IND) polled well in Palmerstown-Fonthill. Cllr. Eoin Ó Broin (Social Democrats) took a seat on the last count in Clondalkin. Cllr Linda de Courcy (II) and Cllr Glen Moore (IFP) are unlikely to challenge for a seat but there could be strong transfers between them.

There should be one definite seat for Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, a very likely second seat for Sinn Féin. There is also probably a seat for People Before Profit, although that cannot be guaranteed – the likelihood of a strong performance from Cllr Paul Gogarty is a fly in the ointment. Fianna Fáil will also be strongly in the hunt for a seat.

DUBLIN NORTH-WEST (3 seats)

Main Candidates : Dessie Ellis TD (SF), Cathleen Carney Boud (SF), Paul McAuliffe (FF) TD, Cllr Conor Reddy (PBP), Cllr Gavin Pepper (IND), Noel Rock (Fine Gael), Caroline Conroy (Green Party), Rory Hearne (Social Democrats),

Dublin North-West loses territory along the M50 to Dublin West and Dublin Fingal West, but gains in the East from Dublin Bay North.

The areas to the east of the blue line (in the Artane/Donnycarney area) are coming in from Dublin Bay North – the areas to the north and west of the red line are going to Dublin Fingal West and Dublin West.

If Sinn Féin had run two candidates in 2020 – they would have most likely taken two seats.

AREA	Sinn Féin	Social Democrats	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Others	Independents
Dublin NW 2020	14,375 (44%)	6,124 (19%)	3,902 (12%)	3,579 (11%)	4,142(13%)	334 (1%)
To DFW	894 (38%)	544 (23%)	189 (8%)	335 (14%)	322 (14%)	61 (3%)
To DW	259 (72%)	28 (8%)	27 (8%)	15 (4%)	24 (7%)	5 (1%)
From DBN	1,677 (32%)	487 (9%)	911 (17%)	847 (16%)	1,008 (19%)	542 (2%)
DUBLIN NORTH-WEST	14,899 (43%)	7,710 (17%)	4,597(13%)	4,076 (12%)	4,804 (14%)	4,511 (10%)

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael gain ground (slightly) with the boundary changes, Sinn Féin and Social Democrats cede ground.

Looking at the candidates, Dessie Ellis TD (SF) should be assured of a seat – the destiny of his running mate former Councillor Cathleen Carney Boud will likely be determined by the party’s national standing, It was a close race between Paul McAuliffe (FF) TD and Noel Rock (FG) last time – this time McAuliffe will probably have the edge. Cllr Conor Reddy (PBP) can be expected to at least improve his vote – if he can stay ahead of Carney Boud he has a shot. Cllr Gavin Pepper (IND) may poll well on the first count but is likely to suffer on transfers. Rory Hearne’s (Social Democrats) chances are hard to divine – how much of Shortall’s vote is personal? Will Hearne’s national profile translate into votes on the ground here? One positive point for him is that the Social Democrats won two of the six seats in Artane-Whitehall in June.

Sinn Féin will definite take one seat; Fianna Fáil and the Social Democrats will likely take the other two. But Fine Gael and or indeed a second Sinn Féin seat can’t be ruled out.

DUBLIN RATHDOWN (4 seats)

Main Candidates : Neale Richmond TD (Fine Gael), Cllr Maeve O’Connell (FG), Catherine Martin TD (Green Party), Cllr Michael Fleming (IND), Cllr Lettie McCarthy (LAB), Cllr. Shay Brennan (FF), Cllr.Kevin Daly (IND), Cllr Maeve O’Connell (FG), Alan Shatter (Independent),

Dublin Rathdown gains Leopardstown and Carrickmines from Dun Laoghaire. Fine Gael took nearly half the vote in 2020 in the area coming, which will increase its chances of retaking two seats.

AREA	Fine Gael	Greens	Fianna Fáil	Sinn Féin	Others
Dublin Rathdown 2020	13,225 (31%)	8,958 (21%)	5,435 (13%)	4,926 (12%)	6,090 (14%)
DUBLIN RATHDOWN 2024	15,775 (33%)	9,643 (20%)	6,583 (14%)	5,134 (11%)	6,799 (14%)

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael gain ground (slightly) with the boundary changes, Sinn Féin and Social Democrats cede ground.

Looking at the candidates, both Neale Richmond TD and Cllr Maeve O;Connell (who was elected on the first count in Stillorgan) should both be confident of election. Cllr Shay Brennan (FF) narrowly missed out last time and must have a good chance of getting over the line this time. Cllr Michael Fleming (IND) took a huge vote in Glencullen-Sandyford in June – which will have a knock-on effect on Cllr Lettie McCarthy’s chances. Catherine Martin TD (GP) faces a battle to retain her seat, but is still likely to be there at the death.

There’s one definite seat for Fine Gael, and a likely second. Both the Greens and Fianna Fáil will be there or thereabout. Michael Fleming could also be involved.

DUBLIN WEST (5 seats)

Main Candidates : Paul Donnelly (SF) TD, Cllr Breda Hanaphy (SF), Jack Chambers (FF) TD, Roderic O’Gorman TD (GP), Sen Emer Currie (FG), Cllr Ruth Coppinger (SOL), Cllr. Tania Doyle (IND), Cllr Ellen Troy (AON), Cllr. Patrick Quinlan (NP)

Dublin West gains a seat with no boundary changes.

Looking at the candidates, Paul Donnelly (SF) TD, should be assured of a seat and his running mate Cllr Breda Hanaphy (SF) could be in a contest with former TD Cllr Ruth Coppinger (SOL) for a likely second left-wing seat. Jack Chambers (FF) TD is likely to see his vote grow with his preferment and the departure of Leo Varadkar from the scene. Roderic O’Gorman TD (GP) will surely appreciate the extra seat but may well come under pressure from Cllr John Walsh of Labour whose party performed well here oat the locals. Another party who performed surprisingly well here in June was Aontu – they took two seats and their candidate Cllr Ellen Troy polled strongly in Castleknock. Senator Emer Currie (FG) is the party’s sole candidate and should be guaranteed election. Cllr Tania Doyle (IND) took a quota and a half in Ongar and cannot be discounted.

There will probably be two left-wing seats, one Sinn Féin and the second one between Sinn Féin and Solidarity, one each for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and the last one a contest between Labout, the Greens and possibly Cllr Tania Doyle.

GALWAY WEST (5 seats)

Main Candidates : Mairead Farrell TD (SF), Hildegarde Naughton TD (FG), Noel Grealish TD (IND), Deputy Catherine Connolly (IND), Sen Pauline O’Reilly (GP), Sen Seán Kyne (FG), Cllr Mike Cubbard (IND), Cllr Noel Thomas (II), Cllr John Connolly (FF), Gráinne Seoige (FF), Cllr Helen Ogbu (LAB), Cllr Ebhlín Seoighthe (SD),

Galway West loses the small part of rural south-east Mayo that voted here in 2020, which will negatively impact the Connemara candidates slightly.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Others	Independents
Galway West 2020	13,697 (23%)	10,893 (18%)	8,464 (14%)	10,811 (18%)	16,476 (27%)
GALWAY WEST 2024	12,819 (22%)	10,095 (18%)	8,085 (14%)	10,600 (18%)	16,249 (28%)

Looking at the candidates, Mairead Farrell TD (SF) may have to rely on Sinn Féin’s national fortunes to secure her seat, Hildegarde Naughton TD (FG) and Sen Seán Kyne (FG) for the likely single Fine Gael seat – Kyne will need to be well ahead of Naughton on the first count to be in the running. Noel Grealish TD (IND) has a secure base in the rural east of the constituency and the eastern suburbs of the city. Catherine Connolly TD (IND) also has a secure base to the west of the city centre and will likely be ahead of other left-leaning candidates such as Sen Pauline O’Reilly (GP), Cllr Mike Cubbard (IND), Cllr Helen Ogbu (LAB) and Cllr Eibhlín Seoighthe (SD). There is one seat between Cllr John Connolly and Gráinne Seoige of Fianna Fáil as well as their former colleague Noel Thomas (now Independent Ireland) on the evidence of the TG4 poll.

There will probably be two left-wing seats, one Sinn Féin and the second one Catherine Connolly. Noel Grealish appears to be unchallenged in his base and should retain his seat. Fine Gael should take one seat. The last seat may be between Fianna Fáil and Independent Ireland, with the former favoured. Regionally, there is likely to be one Connemara seat, three in the city and one in the east.

KERRY (5 seats)

Main Candidates : Pa Daly TD (SF), Stephanie O’Shea (SF), Michael Healy-Rae TD (IND), Norma Foley TD (FF), Danny Healy-Rae TD (IND), Cllr Michael Cahill (FF), Billy O’Shea (FG)

There was no change in the Constituency boundaries in the 2023 redraw. Below are the poll-toppers in 2020. Notice how Michael Healy-Rae topped the poll from the far north to the far south.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Healy-Rae	Others	Independents
Kerry 2020	16,054 (21%)	14,270 (18%)	15,733 (20%)	25,481 (33%)	5,704 (7%)	424 (1%)
KERRY TG4 POLL	24%	14%	15%	37%	9%	2%

Pa Daly TD (SF) sees his personal vote sharply down in the TG4 poll, although his running-mate Stephanie O’Shea should transfer a decent tranche of votes from the Iveragh Peninsula , Michael Healy-Rae TD (IND) and Danny Healy-Rae TD (IND) seem set for another ballot-box-busting performance. Norma Foley TD (FF) appears set for re-election and Cllr Michael Cahill (FF) could be chasing Billy O’Shea (FG) for the last seat,

Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and the two Healy-Raes should take the first four seats, with the last seat between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

KILDARE NORTH (5 seats)

Main Candidates : James Lawless TD (FF), Cllr Naoise Ó Cearúil (FF), Bernard Durkan TD (FG), Cllr Evie Sammon (Fine Gael), Cllr Joe Neville (FG), Réada Cronin TD (SF), Sen Vincent Martin (GP), Cllr Aidan Farrelly (SD), Cllr Angela Feeney (LAB)

Some rural areas close to Naas (south of the white line) come into the constituency to allow for an extra seat to be added.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Social Democrats	Others	Independents
Kildare North 2020	13,365 (26%)	9,068 (18%)	8705 (17%)	9,808 (19%)	9,679 (19%)	330 (1%)
Kildare North 2024	13,828 (24%)	9,609 (18%)	8,959 (17%)	9882 (19%)	9,949 (19%)	557 (1%)

Despite the extra seat – and the expanding population in Naas – it seems likely that that extra seat will come in the North (or possibly west) of the constituency rather than in the Naas area.

Looking at candidates, James Lawless TD (FF) should be confident of holding his seat – his colleague Cllr Naoise Ó Cearúil (FF) topped the poll in Maynooth in June and has a strong chance of joining him. Maynooth-based veteran Bernard Durkan TD (FG) will be competing directly with Leixlip-based Cllr Joe Neville – who took an impressive poll in Leixlip in the locals – in the urban north-east and it’s hard to see both of them being elected. Cllr Evie Sammon (Fine Gael) should poll well in the Naas area, but geography is against her. Réada Cronin TD (SF) is somewhat dependent on Sinn Féin’s nationwide fortunes. Sen Vincent Martin (GP) took nearly 10% last time, but may be hampered this time by his party’s flagging fortunes. Cllr Aidan Farrelly (SD) polled well in the Clane area in June, but he is on the western edge of the constituency and it is unknown how much of the Catherine Murphy vote in Leixlip, Celbridge and Maynooth will transfer to him – however he has a large cushion and he should compensate somewhat with good polls in Clane and Prosperous. Cllr Bill Clear topped the poll in June for the Social Democrats but went Independent after failing to get the party nomination. Cllr Angela Feeney (LAB) came second in Maynooth in June and could be the constituency’s dark horse.

There is one definite Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael seat each, and then one likely for Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats. The last seat could between Fianna Fáil and Labour.

KILDARE SOUTH (3* seats)

*It’s a four seater but the Ceann Comhairle is automatically re-elected.

Main Candidates : Martin Heydon TD (FG), Patricia Ryan TD (IND), Cathal Berry TD (IND), Sen Mark Wall (LAB), Sen Fiona O’Loughlin (FF), Cllr Chris Pender (SD), Cllr Shónagh Ní Raghallaigh (SF), Cllr. Tom McDonnell (Independent)

Kildare South loses territory, with Portarlington returning to Laois and Offaly, while the villages of Twomilehouse and Caragh go into Kildare North.

Historically, Kildare South was the stronger part of Kildare for Fianna Fáil. Athy has long been a stronghold of loyal Labour support.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	Labour	Others	Independents
Kildare South 2020	9,348 (20%)	7,889 (17%)	9,803 (21%)	5,813 (13%)	4,204 (9%)	9,222 (20%)
Kildare South 2024	8,328 (21%)	6,968 (17%)	8,308 (21%)	5,634 (14%)	3,641 (9%)	7,150 (18%)

The constituency redraw was a disaster for Cathal Berry, with the removal of Portarlington costing him nearly two thousand votes – nearly a third of his 2020 vote take. He only won the last seat by 515 votes in that year.

Looking at candidates, Martin Heydon TD (FG) should be confident of re-election. Patricia Ryan TD (IND) will be splitting the Sinn Féin vote with new Councillor Shónagh Ní Raghallaigh (SF) possibly leading to neither of them taking a seat. Cathal Berry TD (IND) is as stated above under pressure due to the loss of Portarlington. Senator Mark Wall (LAB) will poll very strongly in Athy and will be high up on the first count – his problem will be attracting transfers. Sen Fiona O’Loughlin (FF) was unlucky last time and will have high hopes of regaining a Dail seat. Cllr Chris Pender (SD) polled well in the June locals and with the disarray in Sinn Féin could be a possible left-wing daek horse.

It’s a hard one to call. There should be one Fine Gael seat, probably one Fianna Fáil one – and the last one could be Sinn Féin, Social Democrats, Labour or Cathal Berry.

DUN LAOGHAIRE (4 seats)

Main Candidates : Jennifer Carroll MacNeill TD (FG), Sen Barry Ward (FG), Ossian Smyth TD (GP), Richard Boyd-Barrett (PBP), Cormac Devlin TD (FF), Cllr Martha Fanning (LAB)

A constituency with some of the wealthiest suburbs in the state, but also a significant minority of working-class areas. Fine Gael took three out of five seats here in the early 1980s, but ended up with no seats here in 20020

This time, Cabinteely and Leopardstown go into Dublin Rathdown. This will somewhat affect Fine Gael as they took half the vote there.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	P.B.P.	Greens	Others	Independents
Dun Laoghaire 2020	9,911 (16%)	20,828 (33%)	6,002 (10%)	9.632 (16%)	9,300 (15%)	5,695 (9%)	925 (2%)
Dun Laoghaire 2024	8,783 (15%)	18,278 (32%)	5,794 (10%)	9,272 (16%)	8,615 (15%)	5,341 (9%)	860 (2%)

The constituency redraw was a disaster for Cathal Berry, with the removal of Portarlington costing him nearly two thousand votes – nearly a third of his 2020 vote take. He only won the last seat by 515 votes in that year.

Looking at candidates, Jennifer Carroll MacNeill TD (FG) is somewhat affected by the constituency redraw, but both her and Senator Barry Ward (FG) can take heart from the very strong performance for Fine Gael in the Constituency’s electoral areas in June. Richard Boyd-Barrett (PBP) saw off Sinn Féin’s cchallenge last time and should be confident of being re-elected. Cormac Devlin TD (FF) if he can hold the party vote from last night should be re-elected. Ossian Smyth TD (GP) also can take some heart from Green local election results, but he does face a challenge.

There’s one seat each for Fine Gael and People Before Profit – and probably a second one for Fine Gael. The last seat in that eventuality would be between the Greens and Fianna Fáil with the latter having the edge.

DUBLIN FINGAL EAST and WEST

The White Line indicates the boundary between the new Fingal East and West. A small part of Ballymun is also going into Fingal West.

AREA	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Sinn Féin	LEFT	Greens	Labour	Others	Independents
DFE 2024	9,151 (27%)	5,173 (17%)	7,721 (23%)	2,331 (7%)	4,191 (12%)	2,830 (8%)	1,551 (4%)	676 (2%)
DFW 2024	4,038 (15%)	3,483 (13%)	8,180 (30%)	1,237 (5%)	3,809 (14%)	1,515 (6%)	931 (3%)	4,289 (16%)

In Fingal West Louise O’Reilly TD (SF) should be confident of victory. Joe O’Brien TD (GP) unusually for a Green TD has a strong local base in Skerries but nevertheless faces a stiff task – not least because of the very impressive showing by Cllr Robert O’Donoghue (LAB) in the local elections. There is probably one seat for either Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee (FF) or Grace Boland (FG). Cllr Tony Murphy (IND) will poll well in Balbriggan but his vote might not travel.

In Fingal East Darragh O’Brien TD (FF) and Alan Farrell TD (FG) should hold their seats. On the 2020 tallies Cllr Ann Graves (SF) should take the last seat, but there is a chance of an upset from Cllr Dean Mulligan (IFC) who topped the poll in Swords. Duncan Smith TD (LAB) finds his vote badly split by the redraw – though Labour did poll decently in the area in June. Cllr. Dean Mulligan (Independents 4 Change),

LAOIS (3 seats)

Laois looks like being a very straightforward contest this time with Sean Fleming TD (FF), Brian Stanley TD (IND) and veteran Fine Gael Councillor Willie Aird all taking seats.

Portarlington is coming back into the constituency which will probably help Stanley the most.

LIMERICK CITY (4 seats)

Fine Gael are strong in the eastern suburbs of Limerick, while Sinn Féin poll best in Moyross and the east of the city generally.

Brian Leddin TD (GP) has to be regarded as the most vulnerable of the sitting TDs with Dee Ryan (FF) and Frankie Daly (IND) both possible challengers

LIMERICK COUNTY

It seems very likely that Niall Collins TD (FF), Richard Donoghue TD (II) and Patrick Donovan TD (FG) will all be re-elected.

LOUTH

The retirements of both Peter FitzPatrick and Fergus O’Dowd shake up this constituency. The presence of two very large towns at opposite ends of the constituency have a polarising effect and we can expect at least two TDs to be elected in each of the Dundalk and Drogheda areas.

Sinn Féin should retain two TDs, and Labour one. The last two seats will probably be fought between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and possibly an Independent.

HISTORY

The following tables shows the proportions of party seats in the Kerry constituencies since 1923.

CONSTITUENCY	F.F.**	Fine Gael***	Labour	Sinn Féin	C.N.T.	Others****	Ind.
Kerry (1923-1937)	21 (58%)	13 (36%)		1 (3%)		1 (3%)
Kerry Nth (1937-2016)*	25 (37%)	12 (18%)	16 (24%)	3 (4%)	4 (6%)	4 (6%)	4 (6%)
Kerry Sth (1937-2016)	38 (56%)	19 (28%)	6 (9%)	1 (1%)			5 (7%)
Kerry (2016-)	2 (20%)	2 (20%)		2 (20%)			4 (40%)
TOTAL	86 (47%)	46 (25%)	22 (12%)	7 (4%)	4 (2%)	5 (3%)	13 (7%)

Notes:
* Includes Kerry North-West Limerick in 2011
** Includes Republicans in 1923
*** Includes Cumann na nGaedhal from 1923 to 1933
**** National Labour (1944, 1948); Clann na Poblachta (1954, 1956)

Continue reading The New Constituencies : Kerry →

HISTORY

Dublin Bay North was first contested in 2016, but the two constituencies it replaced – Dublin North-Central and Dublin North-East go back far further. Dublin North-Central was first contested in 1948, and Dublin North-East goes back even further – to 1937.

However, it’s a bit more complicated than that – up until the 1970s, Dublin North-Central was essentially a North-Inner City Constituency and up until 1981 its northernmost settlement was Clontarf. Dublin North-East on the other hand would have encompassed the gradual spread of the northern suburbs until by the 1960s it seems to have covered an area roughly equivalent to the modern Dublin Bay North. It was abolished in 1977, but reappeared in its modern form in 1981.

CONSTITUENCY	Fianna Fail	Fine Gael	Labour	Other	Independents
Dublin North-Central (1969-2011)	23 (47%)	16 (33%)	6 (12%)	1 (2%)	3 (6%)
Dublin North-East (1937-2011)	39 (44%)	23 (26%)	13 (15%)	3 (3%)	11 (12%)

Others include : Socialist Labour in D.N.C. in 1981, Clann Na Poblachta in Dublin North East in 1948, Workers Party in 1987 and 1989

Continue reading The New Constituencies – Dublin Bay North →

HISTORY

Tipperary North has existed – apart from a brief interlude between 2016 and the present – as a stand-alone constituency since 1948. From 1948 until 2011 it consisted entirely of areas within Tipperary, with areas being exchanged intermittently with Tipperary South. From 2011 to 2016, it also consisted of the part of rural south Offaly sandwiched between the barony of Lower Ormond north of Nenagh and Roscrea and its hinterland.

Fianna Fáil were largely dominant in North Tipperary taking nearly half the seats between 1948 and 2011. Below you can see the statistics for the seat takes in both Tipperary constituencies.

CONSTITUENCY	Fianna Fail	Fine Gael	Labour	Other	Independents
Tipperary North	27 (47%)	15 (26%)	10 (18%)	1 (2%)	4 (7%)
Tipperary South	34 (44%)	23 (30%)	12 (16%)	2 (2%)	6 (8%)

Others include : Clann Na Poblachta in 1948 in both constituencies, Workers Unemployed Action Group in Tipperary South in 2007. Seamus Healy had previously run as an Independent.

Daniel Morrissey was a Trade Unionist who first won a seat for Labour in the then Tipperary Mid, North and South constituency in 1922 – Legend has it that Ernie O’Malley threatened to shoot Morrissey if he stood, but relented when Dan Breen threatened to shoot him. He broke with Labour in 1931 over his support for the Cumann na nGaedhal’s government’s plans to introduce Capital Punishment for IRA members. He soon afterwards joined Fine Gael, and remained a TD until 1957.

The two Fianna Fáil Michaels – Smith and O’Kennedy – loomed large over politics in Tipperary over four decades. The Roscrea-based Smith represented the constituency from 1969 to 1974, 1977 to 1981 and finally has a more secure tenure from 1987 until his final defeat in 2002. He held ministerial roles in Defence, Education and Environment. The Nenagh-based O’Kennedy represented the constituency from 1969 to 1981, November 1982 to 1992 and finally 1997 to 2002. He was appoint European Commissioner in 1981, but resigned and returned to domestic politics in November 1982. He held several Ministerial roles including Minister for Finance.

Special mention must be made of the November 1982 election where Michael Smith was defeated despite securing over 0.97 quotas and being only 210 votes short of the quota on the first count. I will look at this election in more detail in a separate post.

Michael Lowry was first elected for 1987 for Fine Gael – his election victories in 1989 and 1992 were relatively narrow, but he has topped the poll as an Independent ever since.

Continue reading The New Constituencies – Tipperary North →

HISTORY

Dublin South-Central first came into existence at the time of the 1948 election – however until 1969 it covered the west and central areas of the inner city; Ballyfermot, Kilmainham and Crumlin were for the same time period in the then Dublin South-West constituency, a completely different constituency to the current one of the same name. In 1969 and 1973, Dublin South-Central was the name of a different constituency covering Kimmage, Rathfarnham, Terenure and part of Rathmines – quite similar to the current local electoral area of Kimmage-Rathmines. In 1977, Dublin South-Central reverted to its pre-1969 South Inner City origins and in 1981 the first iteration of the modern constituency emerged.

The Constituency between 1948 and 1969 was a strong one for Fianna Fáil – they won three out of five seats in 1951, 1957, 1961 and 1965. Sean Lemass was the poll-topper on all six occasions, though Maurice Dockrell of the Dockrell Fine Gael dynasty came close on one occasion.

Other interesting holders of office in this period include Phillp Brady (Fianna Fáil) who represented Dublin South-Central for a total of 23 years until his retirement at the age of 84 in 1977 and lived to the ripe old age of 102; James Larkin Junior, who was a Labour T.D. for nine years; Celia Lynch (Fianna Fáil), who represented the constituency for 23 years; Beret-wearing Jack Murphy, elected for the Unemployed Protest Committee in 1957; Thomas J. Fitzpatrick, elected in 1965, currently the oldest former Irish Parliamentarian at 98; Frank Cluskey, Labour Leader, elected in 1965.

In Dublin South-West (effectively the southern and western parts of the current Dublin South-Central), Leader of Clann na Poblachta Sean MacBride topped the poll in 1948 – he held a seat until 1957. Bob Briscoe of Fianna Fáil held a seat from 1948 until 1965, when he was replaced by his son Ben.

Michael Ffrench O’Carroll was a medical doctor originally in Clann Na Poblachta, but was elected as an Independent in 1951 – in 1953 he moved to Fianna Fáil with Noel Browne and unsuccessfully contested the 1954 and 1957 elections. He later became a pioneer of addiction care and founded Cuan Mhuire.

One of the more colourful characters of the constituency was Labour man Sean Dunne. A socialist and republican, he was interned for two years in the Curragh and Arbour Hill during the Emergency. He was elected a Labour TD on the 18th July 1969 for the constituency but died before he could take his seat.

Before the 1960s, Labour were not strong in the constituency, but in 1965 John O’Connell took a seat and in 1969 was joined (very briefly) by Sean Dunne – Labour’s four candidates took 44% of the vote and took two of the four seats, the other two being taken by Fianna Fáil.

1981 saw the first election to a Dublin South-Central on its roughly its current boundaries. In 1989, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael took two seats each, but the last seat was taken by Eric Byrne of the Workers Party. This was the last election that Fine Gael was to take two seats here. 1989 also saw the death of Labour leader Frank Cluskey who had represented the constituency up until that year. It was the last time Fine Gael won two seats.

1992 saw a week-long recount with only five votes seperating Ben Briscoe of Fianna Fáil and Eric Byrne (now of Democratic Left) – Briscoe eventually prevailed. Byrne regained his seat in 1994 in the bye-election occasioned by the death of John O’Connell , but lost it again in 1997. He finally regained in 2011 as a Labour TD only to lose it again in 2016. Incidentally 1997 saw Brid Smith’s first electoral outing where she garnered 218 votes.

Below is the Poll-topper map from the earliest Dublin South-Central tallies I have in 2007.

Note how Fianna Fáil topped the poll in the working-class areas of the South-West Inner City, Crumlin and Kimmage. To the south-east Mary Upton topped the poll in Terenure, now in Dublin Bay South.

Fianna Fáil held two seats at each election until 2011 and haven’t regained a seat yet, although they were very close in 2016. Labour took two in 2011 and lost both in 2016. Aengus O’Snodaigh of Sinn Féin first won a seat in 2002, but only held on by 69 votes from Eric Byrne in 2007.

OVERVIEW

A single DED – Kimmage C which contains Harold’s Cross – will be transferred to Dublin South-Central.

RECENT CONSTITUENCY RESULTS

For a constituency which for three decades had returned only Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the second decade of the 21st century was one of tumultuous change. In 2011, Cork South-West returned no Fianna Fáil TD for the first in the history of the constituency and its predecessor. It also returned the first Labour TD in thirty years. All three seats were won by Fine Gael and Labour candidates – in 2020 those parties took no seats.

The following table gives the result of every election in Dublin South-East and Dublin Bay South since 1997.

YEAR	SEATS	Fianna Fáil	Fine Gael	Labour	Sinn Féin	Green	Left	Others	Inds.
1997	4	34.4% 2	25.0% 1	10.4% 1	4.8%	3.9%	2.0%**	16.5%*	2.8%
1999	1***	30.1%	20.1%	28.0% 1	8.4%	6.3%	2.8%**	2.5%*	1.9%
2002	4	34.3% 2	17.0% 1	19.7% 1	12.7% 1	5.2%	3.3%**	3.1%*	4.7%
2007	4	33.1% 2	14.4% 1	21.1% 1	10.2% 1	5.8%	4.9%**	2.2%*	8.3%
2011	4	9.5%	23.4% 1	35.4% 2	13.4% 1	2.0%	12.9% 1**	0.5%*	3.2%
2016	4	12.7%	14.3% 1	7.7%	23.3% 1	3.3%	24.7% 2	8.8%**	5.4%
2020	4	11.0%	11.7% 1	4.8%	39.3% 1	9.3% 1	17.5% 2	5.2%**	1.1%

NOTES:
* Votes for Others includes…. 1997 – Democratic Left 11.3% Progressive Democrat 5.0% Natural Law Party 0.2%, 1999 – Christian Solidarity Party 2.0% Natural Law Party 0.5%, 2002- Progressive Democrats 3.1%, 2007 – Progressive Democrats 1.9% Christian Solidarity 0.3%, 2011 – Christian Solidarity Party 0.5%, 2016 – Social Democrats 5.7%, Renua 2.1%, Direct Democracy 1.0%, 2020 – Social Democrats 3.7%, National Party 1.5%
** Votes for Left Parties includes…. 1997 – Socialist Party 0.8%, Workers Party 0.7% Socialist Workers Party 0.5%, 1999 – Workers Party 2.8%, 2002 Workers Party 1.9%, Socialist Workers Party 1.4%, 2007 – People Before Profit 4.4%, Workers Party 0.5%, 2011 – People Before Profit 12.9%, 2016 – Independents 4 Change 14.5% Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 10.2%, 2020 – Solidarity – People Before Profit 11.0% Independents 4 Change 6.5%
*** 1999 was a by-election owing to the death of Pat Upton (R.I.P.) of the Labour Party

THE 2020 ELECTION

The one seat change in 2020 was the Green’s Patrick Costello ousting Fine Gael veteran Catherine Byrne – however the turnaround in voting numbers was far more dramatic.

The Sinn Féin jumped by 16 points to 39% – just under two quotas. Unfortunately for Sinn Féin, they only had one candidate, incumbent TD Aengus O’Snodaigh. This was very fortunate indeed for Independents 4 Change TD Joan Collins who saw her vote fall by more than half and retained her seat purely due to the grace and favour of Sinn Féin transfers.

Catherine Ardagh of Fianna Fáil missed out on election by a very narrow margin (25 votes) in 2016; this time she didn’t make it to the last count albeit again by a very narrow margin (180 votes). Her votes might have been expected to carry Catherine Byrne of Fine Gael above Joan Collins but they failed to transfer in sufficient numbers. Would Byrne’s transfers have carried Ardagh ahead of Collins if the roles had been reversed? Hard to say, though the gap would have likely been smaller.

Below you can see the top-polling candidates per area in the election – areas south of the White Line are going into Dublin South-West next time.

It is interesting to compare the above map with that from 2007. Where Fine Gael were poll-toppers in that year, the Greens seem to have topped the poll in 2020. Fine Gael did top the poll in Chapelizod and the narrow strip of the Phoenix Park Electoral Division that runs south of the River Liffey.

It’s worth having a look at a breakdown of the vote in the three Electoral Areas that make up Dublin Bay South – Ballyfermot-Drimnagh contains Walkinstown, Chapelizod and Inchicore as well as Ballyfermot and Drimnagh, South-West Inner City contains all of the Inner City to the west of Clanbrassil Street and north of the Grand Canal as well as Kilmainham and Islandbridge, the part of Kimmage-Rathmines in Dublin South-Central includes Crumlin and Kimmage, while the small part of the Rathfarnham-Templeogue Electoral Area (which lies in the South Dublin Council area)

ELECTORAL AREA	F.F.	F.G.	S.F.	Grns	I4C	Sol.-P.B.P.	Others	Ind.	Votes%
Ballyfermot-Drimnagh	9%	8%	50%	5%	6%	14%	5%	3%	42%
South-West Inner City	9%	14%	31%	15%	4%	12%	14%	1%	24%
Kimmage-Rathmines (pt.)	10%	8%	41%	8%	13%	10%	9%	0%	21%
Rathfarnham-Templeogue (pt.)	24%	25%	14%	14%	4%	6%	13%	0%	12%

In terms of elected candidate geographical placements, two (O’Snodaigh and Smith) were the Ballyfermot area, one (Costello) was from the South-West Inner City and finally Collins was from the Kimmage-Rathmines area – runner-up Catherine Byrne was from the South-West Inner City area,

Both the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates polled markedly better in the mainly middle-class Rathfarnham-Templeogue area which will be in Dublin South-West next time. South-West Inner City also has a sizeable middle-class population, but it is younger and less likely to be house-owning than the population of Rathfarnham-Templeogue and probably more predisposed to moderate centre-left candidates who took nearly 30% of the vote in that area.

Interestingly, in the 2024 Local Elections, the top three candidates on the first count were all from Centre-Left parties – the Green Party, Labour and Social Democrats.

Below are the support maps of the four candidates elected.

I’ve used the same scale for all candidates which is a bit of a challenge as O’Snodaigh got 39% and Collins only 6%. In O’Snodaigh’s case, he took two-thirds of the vote in Greater Ballyfermot (three-quarters in the center of the suburb) which can’t be properly represented here. (Brid Smith took a creditable 16%, followed by Catherine Ardagh on 5%). He also polled well in Crumlin and the South West Inner-City except the area adjoining the canal.

The Green vote reached over 20% in the area enclosed by Clanbrassil Street, the South Circular Road and the R110 and also in the Islandbridge/Kilmainham area.

The following map shows the Combined vote for the Centre-Left candidates – Green, Social Democrat and Green. They took just over 40% in the Warrenmount area near Clanbrassil street, and also in the area around the Irish Museum of Modern Art near Ushers’ Quay.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Below I’ve looked at the differing votes per area dependent on the percentage of Middle-Class households (those with an Employer, Managerial or Professional chief bread-winner) per District Electoral Division.

For the 2020 and 2021 results I have used the relevant 2016 census data, for the 1997 results I’ve used 2006 census data (which is the earliest I have). I didn’t use 2022 census data as for 2022 there was a restructuring of the definitions of socio-economic categories which makes it difficult to compare with data from previous censuses.

AREA TYPE	F.F.	F.G.	S.F.	Grns	I4C	Sol.-P.B.P.	Others	Ind.	Votes%
< 33% Middle-Class	9%	9%	46%	7%	8%	12%	8%	7%	76%
33%-50% Middle-Class	13%	16%	24%	17%	4%	10%	16%	6%	15%
> 50% Middle-Class	20%	27%	13%	18%	1%	7%	15%	5%	10%

A few things to note from the table above:

• Brid Smith (Solidarity – People Before Profit) polled much better relatively speaking than Joan Collins (Independents Before Change) in strongly middle-class areas. Why precisely that was I don’t know, though perhaps Brid Smith’s increased media profile could possibly be a factor.
• The “Civil War” parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) did worst in the least middle-class areas and best in the most middle-class areas. The Left-wing parties (Sinn Féin, Independents 4 Change, Solidarity-People Before Profit) did exactly the opposite. The Centre-Left parties (Greens, Labour, Social Democrats) did worst in the least middle-class areas, but polled equally well in the most middle-class areas as well as more socially mixed areas.

Below is a SapMap of Dublin South-Central showing the percentage of EMP (Employer, Managerial and Professional) Households per area – the areas in red are below average with darkest red below 5%, and those in blue above average with darkest blue above 35%. I’m using the 2022 Census data which has a more conservative definition of what breadwinner occupations lie within the definition of E.M.P. households.

Areas south of the red line are going into Dublin South-West – areas east of the green line are coming in from Dublin Bay South.

Just out of interest, I also had a look at the 2007 results (using the 2006 census)

AREA TYPE	F.F.	F.G.	Labour	S.F.	Greens	S.W.P.	Others	Ind.	Proportion
< 33% Middle-Class	33%	12%	20%	13%	4%	6%	1%	10%	70%
33%-50% Middle-Class	32%	20%	23%	8%	10%	1%	3%	8%	21%
> 50% Middle-Class	36%	20%	21%	2%	7%	0%	6%	7%	9%

As can be seen clearly, the voting patterns were not as aggressively class-based as they were in 2020. Fianna Fáil and Labour had cross-class voting profiles, Fine Gael did better outside working-class areas and, the Greens did best in the “middling” parts of the constituency.

TRANSFERS

Below are details of the main transfers during the 2020 count.

CNT	PTY	F.F.	F.G.	Greens.	Sol.-P.B.P.	I.F.C.	Oth/Ind.	NT	Total
2	S.F.	231 (3%)	114 (1%)	408 (5%)	4,794 (57%)	1,747 (21%)	1,052 (13%)		8.356
3	Sol.-P.B.P.	17 (2%)	10 (1%)	73 (8%)		498 (56%)	290 (33%)		888
5	Lab./S.D.	414 (9%)	513 (11%)	2,219 (48%)		1,102 (24%)		344 (7%)	4,592
6	F.F.		1,647 (29%)	1,665 (30%)		1,153 (21%)		1,133 (20%)	5,598

*Oth/Ind. is mainly Labour and the Social Democrats.

On the second count, 78% of Sinn Féin transfers went to Brid Smith (Solidarity-People Before Profit) and Joan Collins (Independents 4 Change), and a further 12% went to the three centre-left parties. Clearly Sinn Féin voters heeded the party’s entreaty to “Vote Left”.

On the third count, 57% of Brid Smith’s surplus (which would have consisted entirely of Sinn Féin number ones) went to Joan Collins and a further 23% went to the centre-left parties.

Nearly half (48%) of the combined Labour/Social Democrat transfer went to Patrick Costello (Greens), leapfrogging him over Catherine Ardagh (Fianna Fáil), Catherine Byrne (Fine Gael) and Joan Collins.

Ardagh started off 296 votes behind Byrne – the Sinn Féin and People Before Profit surpluses narrowed that gap to 172, and then the elimination of the National Party and various Independents narrowed it further to 91. However, the joint Labour/Social Democrats transfer widened it again to 180, which resulted in Ardagh being eliminated.

Nearly three quarters of the joint Social Democrats/Solidarity-People Before Profit transfer went left, but the Labour transfer on the final count went two-to-one to Fine Gael over Sinn Féin.

The Fianna Fáil transfers broke fairly widely, with a surprising amount (21%) going to Joan Collins. A further 20% were non-transferable.

THE CONSTITUENCY REDRAW

The Constituency Commission recommended that Harold’s Cross be moved from Dublin Bay South to Dublin South Central and that the three DEDs in Rathfarnham-Templeogue be moved into Dublin South-West. On paper, this should help parties of the Left , particularly Sinn Féin.

AREA	F.F.	F.G.	S.F.	Grns	I4C	Sol.-P.B.P.	Others	Ind.
Dublin SC 2020	11%	11%	39%	9%	7%	11%	10%	1%
From Dublin BS	11%	16%	29%	19%		4%	17%	4%
To Dublin SW	24%	26%	14%	14%	1%	9%	13%	0%
Dublin SC 2024	9%	10%	42%	9%	7%	11%	10%	1%

The sum total of the changes in Dublin South-Central – would on a strict interpretation of the 2020 tallies – result in a 3 point gain for Sinn Féin and a 3 point loss collectively for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Which – on the 2020 patterns – would see a wider gap on the final count between the Green Party and Fine Gael.

However, two things should be considered :

• Transfer rates between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are likely to be significantly higher this time. Whether this would offset the disadvantage of the FG/FF losses due to the boundary changes is questionable.
• The Green Party had a pretty good local elections in Dublin South-Central. They topped the poll in South-West Inner City and – more surprisingly – held their seat in mainly working-class Ballyfermot-Drimnagh. Could that mean that their losses will be muted in Dublin South-Central?

HISTORY

The current Dublin Bay South was first contested in 2016, but the (general) area it covered was first contested under the moniker Dublin Townships in 1937 after the areas Pembroke, Rathmines and Rathgar were transferred from Dublin County to Dublin City. The new constituency covered the aforementioned areas but not the south-east Inner City. In the four elections held in the three-seat Dublin Townships, it was very much a straight contest between between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, with Fine Gael taking two of the three seats in 1937 and 1938, and Fianna Fáil two of the three in 1943 and 1944. The one exception was in 1937 when an Independent Maud Walsh came within 119 votes of taking a seat from Fine Gael. Both Sean McEntee and John A Costello were TDs for the area.

Dublin South-East was first contested in 1948 on roughly similar boundaries to Dublin Townships but a major change to its representation with Noel Browne taking a seat for Clann na Poblachta at the expense of Michael Yeats (son of W.B.). Interestingly, Labour had an aristocratic candidate – The Countess of Wicklow polled 8% of the vote on their behalf. All three incumbents (Costello, Browne, McEntee) were returned on the first count in 1951, though Browne was now an Independent. In 1954 he ran under the Fianna Fáil banner but lost his seat as Fine Gael took over half the vote and two of the three seats. Vincent McDowell – father of future Green MEP Nuala Ahern – ran for Labour in this election.

1957 saw Noel Browne return to the Dail this time as an Independent; by 1961 he was representing the left-wing National Progressive Democrats in the Dail. He lost his seat running for Labour in 1965, but regained it in 1969 which was the first year the South-east Inner city was included in the constituency. It was also the first year Garret FitzGerald won a seat for Fine Gael. 1973 saw Ruairi Quinn’s first electoral outing, but he was unable to prevent Fine Gael taking two ouf three seats. In 1977 however he took a seat due to poor Fine Gael vote management, before losing it again in 1981.

1981 was the first election contested on what were broadly the modern boundaries of Dublin South-East and then Bay South. It was also the last time Fianna Fáil took two of the four seats, losing Sean Moore’s seat to Ruairi Quinn against the run of play in February 1982. 1987 saw Michael McDowell of the Progressive Democrats eat directly into the Fine Gael vote to take a seat, only to lose it ignominiously in 1989 – outpolled by John Gormley of the Greens who polled a respectable 10% on this occasion. He regained it in 1992, only to lose it again to John Gormley by 27 votes in 1997.

Above you can see the largest parties in Dublin South-East in 1997 – incidentally the earliest tally I have for any Dublin constituency. Note how Fianna Fáil and Labour topped the poll in the more working-class North while Fine Gael were dominant in the South.

They both won seats in 2002, only for Gormley to best McDowell in the “Rumble in Ranelagh” in 2007. 2002 was also Fine Gael’s annus horribilis, and the unthinkable happened in Dublin South-East with Fine Gael failing to take a single seat. 2011 saw another remarkable result, with Fine Gael and Labour both taking two seats. Defeated Fianna Fáil TD Chris Andrews later defected to Sinn Féin.

Daithi Doolan of Sinn Féin took 7.4% of the vote in 2002 in the party’s first runout in the constituency, but their vote declined in the next two elections despite the party’s gradual growth elsewhere.

2016 saw the creation of Dublin Bay South which included the entirety of the old Dublin South-East plus Terenure and Harolds Cross. It also saw Labour lose both their seats to Fianna Fáil and the Greens. Former Fine Gael TD Lucinda Creighton ran under the Renua banner, only to be bested by Fine Gael newcomer Kate O’Connell.

2020 saw further change with Chris Andrews (now Sinn Féin) taking a seat at the expense of Kate O’Connell of Fine Gael. In 2021 Ivana Bacik of Labour won the by-election caused by the resignation of Eoghan Murphy from the Dáil.

Continue reading The New Constituencies : Dublin Bay South →

HISTORY

Cork South-West was first contested in 1961, but it covers much the same area as the earlier Cork South West – the south-west coastal portion of Cork encompassing the environs of Kinsale, Bandon, Bantry, Clonakilty and Skibbereen – which was first contested in 1923.

In June 1927, Fianna Fáil, Cumann na nGaedhal, Labour and the Farmers’ Party all took a seat, with the remaining seat going to Independent Jasper Wolfe, a Methodist Solicitor who had been British Crown Prosecutor for West Cork from 1916-1923 surviving several British assassination attempts in the process. He held the seat until his retirement in 1933.

Cork West was a poor area for Fianna Fáil – it wasn’t until 1938, the year of their greatest victory, that they finally secured two of the five seats. In 1937 Fine Gael, who had effectively absorbed the Farmers Party vote, took three of the five seats. By contrast Labour represented Cork West from 1923 until 1981with three different TDs all called Murphy – Timothy J Murphy from 1923 until his sudden death addressing a Public Meeting in 1949, his son William J Murphy (the youngest ever TD – he was just over 21 when elected) from 1949 until 1951, and then Michael P Murphy from 1951 until 1981.

In 1943, 65 year old Patrick O’Driscoll won a seat for Clann Na Talmhan. He held it in 1944 and the party nearly took a second outpolling Fine Gael by 27% to 20%. The party narrowly lost their seat in 1948 in the new three-seat constituency and never regained it, although former party candidate Florence Wycherly (father of the actor Irish actor Don Wycherly) won a seat as an Independent in 1957.

The departure of Labour’s Timothy J Murphy in 1981 ushered in an era of Fine Gael dominance with Jim O’Keeffe and P.J.Sheehan winning two out of three seats for Fine Gael in every election until 2002 – in that election O’Keeffe bested Sheehan by just 35 votes. The duo won two seats again for Fine Gael in 2007.

Continue reading The New Constituencies : Cork South-West →

This Poll Average was calculated by doing a time-rated average of the last five Irish Opinion Polls (with adjustments for each polling compant based on their historical deviation from the overall average of polls). Regional sub-data for Dublin and the provinces is also used to account for Regional Swings.

The main points of this Poll Average are :

• The Government Parties (Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Greens) would take 87 seats – 50 for Fine Gael, 36 for Fianna Fáil and 1 for the Greens.
• The Opposition Parties (Sinn Féin, Labour, Social Democrats, Solidarity-People Before Profit, Aontu) would take 49 seats – 34 for Sinn Féin, 4 for Labour and 11 for the other 3 parties.

Bear in mind that there 14 extra seats in the new Dáil.

Continue reading THE POLL AVERAGE ON 1st OCTOBER 2024 →