All posts by djmoore

The new Longford-Westmeath constituency

Longford-Westmeath becomes a five-seater with the return of those parts of East Westmeath that were previously in Meath West.

The constituency first existed from 1921 until 1937, then 1948 until 1992. The constituency had a few “late starters” – Gerry L’Estrange first contested for Fine Gael in 1948 but didn’t win a seat until 1965, while Joe Sheridan (father of Irish Times Journalist Kathy Sheridan) contested unsuccessfully for Fine Gael in 1951, 1954 and 1957 before winning a seat as an Independent in 1961 and holding it for twenty years. Fianna Fáil took three out of five seats in 1948, 1951 and 1954 but lost a seat to Ruairi O’Bradaigh of Sinn Féin in 1957.  They also took three out of four seats in 1987.  Labour won a seat in both 1927 elections – they had to wait until 1992 for Willie Penrose in the three seat Westmeath to win their next one.

The constituency has existed in its current since 2007. In 2011 Robert Troy was one of only two new Fianna Fáil TDs elected to the Dáil, and in 2020 the party made a gain here against the wind. 2016  produced a very unusual result in that all four TDs were elected from Westmeath and none from Longford – Fine Gael TD James Bannon topped the poll in every single box in Longford in 2011, but still lost his seat in 2016. The absence of Willie Penrose from the ticket cost Labour their seat in 2020 and their vote collapsed.

THE BIGGEST PARTIES PER DED IN 2020

2023 Longford-Westmeath HP

Continue reading The new Longford-Westmeath constituency

The new Kildare South constituency

Kildare South remains a four-seater with the areas in Laois and Offaly transferring to the two new county constituencies and also the villages of Caragh and Twomilehouse to Kildare North.

The constituency has existed since 1997, when Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour won a seat each – Fianna Fáil won a second seat in 2002 and 2007. They held one seat in 2011, and regained a second from Labour in 2016. The constituency became a four-seater in 2020, but with the Sean O’Fearghail being the incumbent Ceann Comhairle, it was contested as a three-seater with Independent Cathal Berry being the surprise winner of a seat.

THE BIGGEST PARTIES PER DED IN 2020

2023 Kildare South HP

Continue reading The new Kildare South constituency

The new Cork North-Central Constituency

Cork North-Central expands to a five-seater with significant changes to its boundaries – areas south of the river go into Cork South-Central, while the large towns of Ballincollig (now technically within the city boundaries although realistically not physically yet a part of the city proper) and Mallow come in.

THE BIGGEST PARTIES PER DED IN 2020

2023CorkNorthCentralBP

Continue reading The new Cork North-Central Constituency

The new Dublin Fingal West constituency

Dublin Fingal West  is a new constituency encompassing the north and west of the previous Dublin Fingal constituency as well as parts of Ballymun and Santry situated between the Airport and the city-county  boundary.

It takes in the Balbriggan Electoral Area as well as most of the Lusk-Rush area, a small part of the Swords area as well as parts of Dublin

THE BIGGEST PARTIES PER DED IN 2020

2023FingalWestBP

Continue reading The new Dublin Fingal West constituency

Initial Analysis of the Constituency Review 2023

Below there will be a short description and analysis of each of the constituencies recommended by the Electoral

CONSTITUENCY : Wexford-Wicklow
SEATS : 3
CHANGES : Wexford-Wicklow is a new constituency encompassing much of South Wicklow and North Wexford.

Approximately 60% of the votes were cast in the Wexford constituency and 40% were cast in the Wicklow constituency. The three largest settlements (Arklow, Gorey and Courtown) are situated along the east coast. None of the ten TDs elected in the Wicklow and Wexford constituencies in 2020 are resident in the constituency. The 2020 figures cited below are for Wexford from where the majority of the new constituency comes from.

PARTY SUPPORT

YEAR SEATS SF FF FG LAB OTH IND
2020 5 24.9% 1 26.5% 1 17.0% 1 12.3% 1 7.4% 11.9% 1
2023 3 28.3% 26.9% 25.4% 3.8% 8.1% 7.5%

The three big parties had just over two-thirds of the votes in Wexford, but over four-fifths of the vote in the new Wexford-Wicklow and would take a seat apiece on the 2020 tallies.
Continue reading Initial Analysis of the Constituency Review 2023

Sinn Féin… Under-Nomination once again??

This post looks at ten District Electoral Areas where Sinn Féin may have under-nominated candidates in the recent Northern Ireland Local Elections. Sinn Féin are no strangers to under-nomination as they missed out on up to ten seats in the southern Irish General Election of 2020.

Six of the ten areas are in just two Councils, Causeway Coast and Glens and Mid-Ulster. Did Sinn Féin underestimate the swing to them in those council areas in particular? This is something I intend to look at later.

Please note : unless the A Graph Title specifically names a District Electoral Area, all pie charts are based on NI-wide data.

Continue reading Sinn Féin… Under-Nomination once again??

Northern Ireland Local Election Results 2023 – Maps

In this post I will be posting election maps related to the Northern Irish Local Elections which took place on the 18th May.

Each of the maps are based on results at District Electoral Area (DEA)

The first tranche of maps relate to the overall vote-share of the parties – I will be adding more maps later and also more analysis.

OVERALL VOTE MAPS

Below are the vote performances by percentage for the five main Northern Irish parties – Sinn Féin, the DUP, Alliance, the UUP and the SDLP.

I plan to add the smaller parties later.

SINN FÉIN

2023 SF

Not surprisingly, Sinn Féin polled best in their traditional heartlands – South Armagh, West Belfast, Tyrone and Fermanagh – but what was also notable was the strength of their vote in other areas.

DUP

2023 DUP

The DUP as you might expect polled best in majority Protestant in rural and working-class areas of Belfast, Antrim, Armagh and Down.

ALLIANCE

2023 ALL

Alliance are sometimes pejoratively described as a Leafy-Suburbs-By-The-Sea party and to be honest this map doesn’t exactly challenge that narrative.

They have had some success west of the Bann in recent years, and indeed won a seat in Enniskillen for the first time ever two weeks ago, but at the same time they lost both their seats on Derry and Strabane Council

UUP

2023 UUP

The UUP lost a further21 seats in the elections, but remainly strong in  geographically disjointed areas – Banbridge, Larne, North Fermanagh etc. Interestingly they didn’t run a candidate in Court DEA in Belfast (which contains the Shankill Road) nor in neighbouring Oldpark.

By contrast, they still were able to outpoll the DUP in Fermanagh.

SDLP2023 SDLP

Somewhat similar to the UUP, the SDLP retains a certain strength in geographically disjointed areas – Derry City, Downpatrick, Armagh City, South Belfast.

But even on the west bank of the Foyle in Derry, Sinn Féin took 6 seats to their 5 (in the old Derry City Council the corresponding results thirty years ago in 1993 was 12 for the SDLP and 3 for Sinn Féin) and in Downpatrick where they once took 65% and 6 of the 7 seats (again in 1993), this time they took 32% of the vote to Sinn Féin’s 43% (up from 4% in 1993).

They were also blessed that Sinn Féin under-nominated candidates in at least seven areas which led to the SDLP keeping seats in areas which otherwise would have gone to an extra Sinn Féin candidate.