I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….

CONTENTS

Methodology
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Connaught-Ulster
Government Formation
Demographics
Previous Poll Averages
Main Points

Continue reading The Poll Average on the 1st June 2022 →

THE CURIOUS CASE OF THE TUV IN THE COUNT-TIME

It’s an open question as to whether God is man or a woman, but Jim Allister can be in little doubt that he or she is manifestly not a fan of Traditional Unionist Voice. The TUV took 7.5% of the assembly vote but only 1.1% of the assembly votes – quite possibly the most disproportional results a Proportional Representation system has delivered.

TABLE 1 : VOTES PER MLA

Continue reading The Curious Case of The TUV In The Count-Time →

Following countless hours of looking through polls, polls and more polls, Tallyriffic is going to make the following prediction….

This would equate to an advance for the middle-ground (in the form of Alliance) although given their poll ratings they might hope for a few more seats over the 13. Sinn Féin would cede 2 seats, but emerge as the largest party (with all that entails) while the Social Democratic and Labour party would cede 3 seats, partially due to losing votes and partially due to being overtaken by Alliance who tend to transfer well to the SDLP. The Democratic Unionist Party would lose nearly a third of their vote and a quarter of their seats, with the main beneficiaries being Traditional Unionist Voice who seem poised to make a breakthrough. The Ulster Unionist Party remain grounded on 13% although they are forecast to make a seat gain.

Below I’m going to look at each of the counties (and Belfast) in turn….

Continue reading Tallyriffic Northern Assembly Prediction →

The following is an analysis of the current bye-election in Dublin Bay South – looking at hard data such as transfer rates, historical voting trends and socio-economic voting patterns. Also I have a look at the interesting poll done by the Irish Times and MRBI.

Continue reading Dublin Bay South – An Analysis →

I’ve done a time-weighted analysis of the last five Polls and using a Count Simulator have projected the outcomes as follows….

Continue reading The Poll Average on 30th June 2021 →

The Tallyriffic Predictor’s analysis of the RED C poll on a constituency-by-constituency basis returns the following results :

It might seem odd that Labour only win 3 seats off 6%, but this result is explained by the fact that of the 7 seats Labour won in February 2016, 5 were won on the last count. Of these 5, 4 were won by a victory margin of less than 2000 votes and 3 with a margin of less than 1000 votes.
Accounting for “luck” – by equalising the number of final seat wins and runner-up slots – the seat tallies would look like this.

Fianna Fáil gain across all regions of the country – although their improvement is somewhat more muted in Leinster. Fine Gael show the largest drop in Leinster – where they are (on these figures) at risk of losing seats in Carlow-Kilkenny, Kildare North, Louth, Offaly, Wexford and Wicklow. By contrast, their vote remains virtually static in Connaught-Ulster. Sinn Fein see a very strong performance in Leinster.

You can read the entire report here :Analysis B&A ST February 2017